Will The Cards Soar Again?
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
For a division that produced the conference champion, there was a lot of miserable football played by the NFC West last season.
Minus the 12 games that Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle played among each other, the West was a combined 10-30.
People who love to attend fires and gawk at the site of train wrecks were focused on Detroit’s run at a perfect 0-16 season and were able to avoid looking at the carnage taking place in Seattle and St. Louis.
It wasn’t pretty.
The Cardinals were left standing when their three division rivals each took a step back, then got hot in the playoffs and nearly stole the Super Bowl.
Let’s take a peek at how the division looks heading into September:
St. Louis Rams
Projected win total: 5
Prediction: Over
If nothing else, new coach Steve Spagnuolo will have the defense on its toes rather than sitting back on its heels like the 3-13 team did in 2007 and last year’s 2-14 group did.
Spagnuolo had great success pressuring opposing quarterbacks when he was the defensive coordinator for the Giants and will likely try to put similar heat on QBs this season.
There is concern in St. Louis that Spagnuolo will overplay his hand in his first year, pressuring from everywhere to cover up an overall weak defense and allowing the secondary to be picked apart in the process.
The Rams worked hard to get the overall No. 2 draft pick right and with OT Jason Smith of Baylor they don’t appear to have screwed it up. Smith, replacing All-Pro Orlando Pace, will help protect whatever is left of Marc Bulger’s career and hopefully open enough holes for Steven Jackson to remain one of the league top running backs for at least a few more years.
Jackson’s durability might start to become a factor, as he’s missed 25 percent (eight) of the team’s games over the past two seasons.
The Rams haven’t had a winning season since going 12-4 in 2003 and Spagnuolo hasn’t even begun to firm up the depth chart. The waiver wire will be scrutinized right up until opening day, but it won’t be just the players coming and going. The team is up for sale, and while very unlikely, it hasn’t been possible to completely beat back rumors of a move to Los Angeles.
Stat you should know: St. Louis quarterbacks have been sacked 97 times over the past two seasons.
San Francisco 49ers
Projected win total: 7.5
Prediction: Under
The entire city seems split on former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith and whether he can ever be anything more than an average NFL quarterback. Actually, after stumbling for three years Smith’s ineffectiveness and injuries, the 49ers might even accept average at this point.
But you can’t blame Smith – out for all of 2008 after shoulder surgery -- entirely for the QB mess.
There have been a slew of coaching changes in the Bay Area since Smith arrived. Throw in an average O-line and a ho-hum group of receivers, and you get a team that was fortunate to get within a sniff (7-9) of .500 last season.
Smith and Shaun Hill will probably go to the third exhibition game before one wins (or loses) the starting job. Hill actually earned some cred last year by leading the team to wins in the final two games, and finished with a higher QB rating than Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger.
The Niners actually have a decent defense, which automatically gives them an advantage in a division that gave up more points than any other in the NFL last season. Losing Walt Harris for the season (knee) was quickly remedied by the signing of Dre’ Bly, who was a Denver salary cap dump.
Stat you should know: The Niners finished over .500 (5-4) after Mike Singletary took over as head coach.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected win total: 7.5
Prediction: over
Four straight division titles, a Super Bowl berth and then there was the 2008 fiasco. The Seahawks at least have a healthier Matt Hasselbeck as they try to dig out from the rubble of last season’s 4-12 fiasco. Hasselbeck was shelved early last season after suffering injuries from his head to his leg.
Working against Hasselbeck and new coach Jim Mora is the fact that the Seahawk roster is getting long in the tooth and needs replenishing. The team drafted help at linebacker, taking Aaron Curry to help shore up a defense that gave up way too many yards a game (378, ranking 30th).
Things started to go south last season when the Giants lifted their legs on the Seahawks and beat Seattle by 38 in Week 5. That launched a 1-8 stretch and basically called a halt to competitive pro football in the Pacific Northwest. But the first six games this coming season are manageable, especially if the defense steps up even a bit and the wide receivers stay healthy. A functional Deion Branch paired with newcomer T.J. Houshmanzdadeh represents an upgrade over the 2008 wideouts.
Stat you should know: The Seahawks were the only team in the NFL to give up more than 4,000 passing yards last season.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected win total: 9
Prediction: over
In the NBA and NHL, mediocre teams that make the playoffs are courteous enough to bow out early and leave the stage to the stars.
In the NFL average teams aren’t supposed to even make the playoffs, let alone get to the Super Bowl and almost win.
But the door looks wide hope again for Arizona in a division which doesn’t appear to have gotten appreciably better.
Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are back and Anquan Boldin will cave in and return now that he’s dumped agent Drew Rosenhaus. With Edgerrin James out of the picture, ‘Zona spent its first-round draft choice on Ohio State RB Chris Wells.
The Cardinals have to realize that the chances of drawing an inside straight again are pretty slim, and that any team that gives up close to four touchdowns a game is not likely to be playing many games in January. But with the Niners, Seahawks and Rams as competition, the division winner will most likely reside in the desert again, assuming nothing debilitating happens to Kurt Warner, who turns 39 next week.
Stat you should know: The Cardinals gave up more points than all but four teams and covered the over more times (11) than any other team in the league last season.