NFL 2011 Schedule: Games to Watch and Projected Pointspreads
By Bill McBride
The NFL Season of the Unknown added another chapter this week when it released a schedule that indeed may not come to fruition. But there are tickets to be sold, and television slots to fill, so far be it for the league to stop acting as normal.
So, if they can move ahead with announcing a full season slate, we might as well move ahead and look at their potential games, right? Maybe we all need a break from the legalese of the lockout anyhow.
With the help of two of the sharpest oddsmakers on the planet - Mike Colbert, race and sports director for Cantor Gaming, and Pete Korner, founder of the Las Vegas Sports Club - we break down some of the season’s marquee games, and what the opening lines might be, knowing what we know now:
Editor's note: These are projected lines, so don't get in all worked up if the opening numbers vary from the spreads below.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 8: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
The past two Super Bowl champions will be on display and will start the season in stunning style. The stars will be under center, as New Orleans’ Drew Brees takes on Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. And if their offenses stay relatively intact, we might see a ton of points in primetime.
And both teams are used to winning in Week 1, too. Last year, Green Bay outlasted Philadelphia, 27-20, and New Orleans edged Minnesota, 14-9.
The books are leaning on the most recent champion, here, with all things considered. They are home, and they have more momentum built up perhaps.
COLBERT’S LINE: Packers -6.5
KORNER’S LINE: Packers -6
SUNDAY, SEPT. 18: Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
You think Michael Vick might get some national television time in the days leading up to this one? After all, last year’s surprise story returns to Atlanta for the first time as a starter since the dogfighting controversy ended his tenure there.
What will get lost in the Vick hype, is the fact that both teams are pretty good. Both won their division last year, and both were bounced in the NFC playoffs by the Packers. So, there’s talent and motivation on both sides.
But this game might just mean a little more to the people of Atlanta, and the Falcons franchise, all told. And that was certainly factored into a game that otherwise is really too tight to call.
COLBERT’S LINE: Falcons -3
KORNER’S LINE: Falcons -3
SUNDAY, OCT. 9: New York Jets at New England Patriots
The Patriots-Colts rivalry still has some sizzle, but it has nothing on this one, which just gets deeper and deeper every year.
Last season, after a regular-season split, the Jets took bragging rights for the offseason when they stunned the Patriots, 28-21, in the AFC Divisional Round. New England was a division winner and the No. 1 seed in the conference, and all signs pointed to another Super Bowl appearance.
But New York rained on the parade and surely that will be brought up countless times in anticipation of this season’s Round 1 at Foxboro.
The books have some questions when it comes to the Jets, and it’s hard to argue. You just never know what you’re going to get from one week to the next. And one thing you can say about New England in the Bill Belichick era is they make the most of their regular-season home games.
COLBERT’S LINE: Patriots -5.5
KORNER’S LINE: Patriots -5
MONDAY, OCT. 10: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Give credit to the NFL for being unique and thinking forward on this one. The league actually believes the Lions -- with some offensive firepower and defensive potential -- have a little appeal this season, and for the first time in a long time, they will have a national audience on a day not named Thanksgiving.
Indeed, Detroit will play its first Monday Night Football game since they lost to St. Louis, 35-0, in 2001. And, what’s more, they even get it at home.
Well, with apologies to those with the fever in Motown, the books aren’t feeling the love just yet. Remember, to them, they are still the Lions. And until they prove otherwise, they’ll lean on what they know.
COLBERT’S LINE: Bears -3.5
KORNER’S LINE: Bears -2
SATURDAY, DEC. 24: New York Giants at New York Jets
Nothing like Christmas Eve in East Rutherford, N.J. Stadium bragging rights, area bragging rights, and playoff hopes will be on the line as New York's two teams collide in a holiday clash for the ages.
Eli Manning and the Giants have a long way to go before they win back the respect of the books. Remember, this is a team -- with its playoff life on the line -- that lost two of the last three games to end the year, and a team that went with 2-4 vs. postseason teams, all told.
Meanwhile, while there’s a bit of an unknown with the Jets as well, they are the home team here, so they will have the majority of the building’s fans. And there’s a good chance this one might be the difference between a wild-card berth or a division title for Rex Ryan and co.
The books are leaning on the Jets, at least for now.
COLBERT’S LINE: Jets -5.5
KORNER’S LINE: Jets -2
OTHER GAMES OF NOTE:
Sunday, Sept. 25: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: A rematch of the NFC title game, and a chance for Jay Cutler to redeem himself. Bears -1.
Thursday. Nov. 24: San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens: Thanksgiving with the Harbaughs. Jim's 49ers play host to John's Ravens in what should be a holiday treat. In the end, though, one brother has a consistent playoff team that is battle-tested. The other? Well, he doesn’t. Ravens -6.