SPORTS WAGERS
UCF Under 7½ -120
Scott Frost did a great job taking over a UCF team that was 0-12 the season prior, guiding the Knights to a bowl with six wins. Upon closer inspection, though, those six wins came versus an FCS foe that had a losing record and five FBS teams that had losing records (18-42 combined). This season, the Knights face six bowl teams from 2016 and have only four returning starters on defense. With these precepts taken into consideration, one of last season’s renaissance teams maybe be due for attrition here in 2017.
Generally, the uptick in Golden Knight victories could spawn some fanfare that perhaps this brand of UCF football could be on its way back to its pinnacle during the Blake Bortles era in which UCF would climb as high as winning a Fiesta Bowl against a top-six opponent in Baylor. However, the Knights are a long way off from achieving such feats. UCF could find itself demoralized after the first month of football, as they have not one but three difficult tests to kick-off their follow-up to 2016. First, UCF has to take all those new defensive starters to face perhaps one of the most dynamic offenses in the American Athletic Conference, the Memphis Tigers. Memphis features a gifted quarterback in Riley Ferguson and he can go off if UCF’s novice starters roll-out the red carpet for him. In addition, the Knights find themselves hosting Georgia Tech in Orlando following their Week Two collision with Memphis at home. UCF could easily be 1-2 after just Week 3 and then have to take to the road to face a touted Big 10 team in Maryland.
How Frost navigates the first month of play will tell us all we need to know about what to expect with this UCF team. However, if things go terribly wrong, a distinct possibility indeed, this outfit can find itself with its head hanging low before embarking on a tumultuous backstretch of conference play where they must take the road to face Navy, travel to the defending champions Temple, and follow it up at home with a showdown with what has been classed as a viable Group of Five New Year’s Six contender in South Florida. Another 6-6 season is not of the question here if UCF is forced to live and die by its “UCFast” offense. We know how that story goes time and time again for teams that try to win games by lighting up the scoreboard. It rarely ends well. Thus, we’ll hold our horses on UCF and strongly suggest that 7½ is a big overreaction to what they accomplished last year.
Jason Sharpe
Cincinnati Bengals Under 8½
The Cincinnati Bengals look to be heading downward as they come in off their first losing season since 2010 last year, going just 6-9-1 overall. A deeper look at their season last year shows it wasn't an impressive 6-win year either as two of those wins came against the hapless Cleveland Browns and two other victories were against two (Miami and Baltimore) of the most injured teams in the league at the time that they played them. The Bengals were the third-oldest team in the league last year, and on paper it looks like they've went backwards a bit this off-season. They suffered two big losses on their offensive line coming into this season, and that's huge as offensive line play around the league has become more important over the last five years. One of those lineman was arguably the Bengals best overall player, OT Andrew Whitworth, who's loss will likely be huge. Why this becomes even more important is because Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton ranked near the bottom of the league last season in QB rating while pressured, which could be something he sees a lot this upcoming season. Add this all up and I don't see how this team makes it to 9+ wins this year.
The Prez
Michigan Wolverines Under 9
As the Michigan Wolverines fall football camp approaches it isn't a difficult evaluation to realistically access that the oddsmakers Michigan win total and their projected success this season, in relation to the squad's 2017 Regular Season Wins Total that WestGate has published, is over-valued.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said that redshirt senior QB Wilton Speight has not yet earned the starting quarterback job for the 2017 season.
Is this just coach-speak?
There are a large number of College Football pundits that believe Speight is NFL ready. The competition is legitimately tight according to the Wolverines' head coach. Harbaugh told the local media recently that Speight "went through competition throughout the spring, went through 15 practices and it [competition] was a dead heat." He went on in the interview to verbalize that it would take around 8-15 practices in camp before the competition has a name at the top of the depth chart." Speight is competing against John O'Korn and Brandon Peters.
There is little doubt that Harbaugh has numerous talent and it is a given that he and his staff can recruit as effectively as any school in the college ranks. However, there is a total of just six starters back from last year's team with only one of those being on defense.
Michigan lost 10 starters from last season's No #1 ranked defensive unit, including Heisman finalist Jabrill Peppers, captain Chris Wormley, cover corner Jourdan Lewis and defensive line stalwart Taco Charlton. Defensive coordinator Don Brown has his work cut out for him if he plans on equaling last year's season ending statistics yet alone improving on the unit’s 2016 performance.
Can Brown's heavy blitzing scheme succeed with so many inexperienced starters in 2017?
Offensively, Michigan is in a better equipped to succeed than the defense, when comparing the two units to the 2017 player personnel. While the offense lost five starters from the 2016 unit Harbaugh and his coaching staff offered a large number of snaps to the young player core a year ago. However, one should expect that the offense will experience their share of high's and low's this season. The only significant skilled players to return on offense are Speight and running back Chris Evans. All things being equal Speight hasn't even been named the starter, yet, and whomever is the starting signal caller in Week #1 versus Florida will have all new receivers as Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt departed for the NFL.
Michigan boasts plenty of young talent but with arguably their most important season defining game coming in Week #1 against the Florida Gators at Texas Stadium it isn't a stretch to foresee growing pains on both sides of the ball in the team's campaign opener. Road exams for the Wolverines this season, Florida in Texas and Penn State at Happy Valley are twp events in which Michigan should be underdogs. This 2017 Harbaugh squad does get Ohio State at home but the Big House alone won't be enough to make Michigan the oddsmakers choice in this contest if Ohio State is who they are projected to be in late November.
With 2017 affairs against quality opponents in Florida, Penn State and Wisconsin away from home and Cincinnati, Michigan State and Ohio State at the Big House, each and every Saturday game will be mission critical to where Michigan is playing in January.
Beat the Gators in Arlington on the first Saturday of September and this team has a chance to win nine games this season, which would currently be a push on the SuperBook College Football 2017 Regular Season Wins chart. Fail to earn a "W" in the season opener versus a good Florida defense and winning nine game in 2017 is a long shot.
At best, this 2017 Michigan group looks like a team that will finish 8–4.