NFL: Best Bets - Week 17 Sides

Best Bets - Week 17 Sides
December 29, 2017
By Bookmaker

NFL Week 17 Best Bets – Sides

Week 17 of any NFL season can often be the most frustrating as a bettor because playoff-bound teams are often resting players, teams that are long out of it are going through the motions waiting for the off-season to start, and then you've got a select few games that might actually mean something to squads.

This year we've got more than a select few games with the potential to determine playoff positions in both conferences, and things could really get down to the nitty gritty in the AFC with multiple tie-breaking scenarios needed should the results of the Ravens, Titans, Chargers, and Bills games fall a certain way. Baltimore and Tennessee currently hold those final two positions and if they win this week they're in.

So with that being said, let's get to the two teams I don't believe you can leave off your card for Week 17.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #1: Tennessee -3

I'm not usually one to buy into the “must win” mentality during Week 17 games, but this line and it's movement have intrigued me and now that it's down to a FG I've got to bite on the Titans. Tennessee hosts Jacksonville in what could be a preview of next week's Wildcard matchup if the current AFC standings hold, and with Jacksonville locked into the #3 or #4 seed, I don't think it matters much to them where they finish. We saw the Jaguars defense not really give a hoot last week in San Francisco after they had clinched the division with the Titans loss earlier, and with the potential for these two to meet in Jacksonville next week, I'm betting we see a very vanilla gameplan and roster from the Jags here.

Oddsmakers opened up the Titans as -6 favorites here, but with three straight losses in “must-win” games, it appears as though bettors have had enough of getting burned by Tennessee. Maybe laying 6 points was a shade too high, but now that it's a FG and the Titans have the “win and you're in” mantra, I do believe we see the best version of this Tennessee team show up here at home.

The Titans are one of the lone teams to put a beating on the Jags this year with their 37-16 win back in Week 3, as Tennessee blew the game wide open in the 2nd half and cruised to victory. If this were any other week of the year and you had a division rematch featuring one team at home that won the first meeting by 21 points, most bettors wouldn't bat an eye about laying nearly a TD like this opening line suggested. I'm inclined to think that this spread should be closer to that original number than it currently is, and with the favorite being 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two, and Tennessee 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six against a winning team, and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 at home, I do expect to see the Titans make the playoffs with a victory this week.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet #2: Denver -3.5

This play falls into a similar position as the previous one as I'm not sure what incentive the Chiefs have to send out any of their starters for this game. Kansas City is locked into a home game next week in the Wildcard round, and having played both New England and Pittsburgh already this year, I don't believe the Chiefs really care which one of those two they could face should they win their Wildcard game. That means that's it's simply go through the motions time in Denver, with most of their preparation dealing with potential opponents next week.

Surprisingly, VegasInsider.com's betting percentage currently show more than 80% of the ATS action on KC and nearly 70% of the ML wagers on the Chiefs as well. I simply don't get what the majority of bettors are seeing here with the Chiefs, and when you see that the opening line of -2.5 on Denver has moved up a full point and through the key number of -3, it looks like sportsbooks will gladly take all the Chiefs bets they can get right now.

Denver's season as clearly not gone according to plan, but to end the year with a home victory over a hated rival is a nice way to cap off a disappointing year and begin to assess future plans. The Broncos have won two of their last three games both SU and ATS and while motivation may be a bit of a concern for some here, you've got to remember that no matter who sees time at QB for Denver in this game, they are playing for the potential spot a year from now. That's all the motivation this offense needs right now and with KC having their struggles away from home lately (0-4 ATS last four road games) and focused squarely on what awaits them next week, laying the points with the home side is the way to go here.