NFL Betting News and Notes for Sunday, September 10th, 2017

NFL Week 1

Jets @ Bills — Buffalo led NFL in rushing yardage last two years; will that change under the new coach? Bills had won five in row over the Jets before getting swept 37-31/30-10 in two meetings LY. Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 19-23-5 points. Jets open on road for first time since ’09; they’re 5-1 in last six season openers, 15-5 vs spread in last 20 road openers. Buffalo is 7-3 vs spread in last ten home openers- three of last four stayed under. Last five years, Bills are 9-6 vs spread when hosting AFC East foes; since 2012, they’re 12-10 as a home favorite. Over is 12-4 in their home games the last two years. Jets are 2-4-2 as road underdogs under Bowles. Under is 10-6 in Jet road games the last two seasons.

Falcons @ Bears — Last 14 years, Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread). Atlanta also has two new coordinators this year; they’re 3-2 in last five season openers, 4-3 as a road favorite under Quinn. Under is 15-9 in their road games the last three years. Chicago is 6-11-1 vs spread as a home underdog since ’12 (4-1 LY). First meeting in three years between these two; Falcons lost last six games in Windy City- their last win here was in 1983 (also in Week 1). Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five road openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 AO’s. Chicago lost its last three home openers, by 3-8-15 points; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Bears were -20 in turnovers LY, are 14-34 SU the last three years.

Jaguars @ Texans — Houston won last six games in this division rivalry; they swept Jaguars LY, 24-21/21-20. Jax lost five of last six games in Houston, losing last three by 1-24-6 points. Texans are 12-4-1 as a home favorite under O’Brien; they’re also starting 4th different QB on Opening Day in his four years as Texans’ coach. Since ’09, Jaguars are 24-29-1 as a road underdog; over is 11-5 in their road games the last two years. Jax lost its last nine road openers (2-7 vs spread)- they stared 0-1 the last five years. Houston won six of last seven season openers, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven home openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers, 10-6 in their home games the last two seasons.

Eagles @ Redskins — Washington won last five series games, sweeping Iggles 27-20/27-22 LY. Philly lost last three visits here, by 3-3-7 points. Last two years, Redskins are 12-4 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points- they’re 4-8 as a home favorite under Gruden. Eagles are 8-9 vs spread as a road underdog the last three years. Redskins Philly won seven of last eight road openers- they covered last five tries as an underdog in AO’s. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine AO’s. Washington lost four of its last five home openers; five of last six went over total. Last two years, Eagles are 7-10 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 22-10 in Philly road games the last four years.

Cardinals @ Lions — Redbirds are 10-6 vs spread on artificial turf, 10-7 as road underdogs under Arians. Detroit is 11-4-3 as home favorites under Caldwell. Arizona won its last seven games with Lions; five of those seven were in desert. Redbirds won 31-24/42-17 in last two visits here; their last loss to Lions was here in 2005. Arizona had covered eight road openers in row before losing Week 3 AO in Buffalo LY- three of their last four went over. Cards won five of last seven season openers. Detroit won five of last six season openers, lost last two home openers, scoring 12-15 points. Over is 5-2 in their last seven HO’s. Over is 13-3 in Cardinal road games last two years. Over is 23-17 in their home games the last five years.

Raiders @ Titans — Silver/Black was 7-1 LY in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 12-4 vs spread on road under Del Rio. Oakland won in Music City last two years, 24-21/17-10; road team won last three series games. Last four years, Titans are 9-20-3 vs spread at home; since 2011, they’re 13-22-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less. Oakland lost four of last five season openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten road openers— over is 12-5-1 in their last 18. Tennessee won three of last four season openers, but lost its last three home openers. Titans are 5-13-2 vs spread in last 20 non-divisional home tilts. Under is 7-3 in their last ten season openers. Oakland is 15-5 vs spread in its last 20 non-divisional road games.

Buccaneers @ Dolphins — Since 2007, Miami is 11-31-1 vs spread as a home favorite; dogs are 26-12-2 vs spread in their last 40 home games. Series is 5-5; home side is 7-3. Bucs lost three of four visits here, with one win in 2000. Three of last four meetings were decided by 3 or less points. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, covered five of last seven; over is 6-3 in their last nine. Miami won four of its last five home openers- their last eight home openers went over the total. Last three years, Tampa Bay is 6-11 vs number in games with spread of 3 or less points. Since 2013, under is 17-14-1 in Bucs’ road games; over is 15-9 in Miami’s last 24 home tilts. Since ’12, Tampa is 15-10 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

Ravens @ Bengals — Cincy is opening at home for first time since 2009; they went 4-3 in Week 1 road games since then, are 5-2 (4-2-1 vs spread) in last seven home openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine HO’s. Bengals are 15-9-1 as home favorites since 2013, but their OL was ravaged in free agency last winter- they’re 7-5 vs spread in AFC North home games last four years. Since 2012, Baltimore is 10-13-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games. Ravens lost four of last six road openers; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 AO’s (over is 7-2-1 in last ten). These teams finished LY here against each other. Bengals won six of last seven meetings, winning last five played here, by 6-17-3-8-17 points.

Steelers @ Browns — Since returning to NFL in 1999, Cleveland has been 1-0 once, 0-1 17 times, with only Week 1 win 20-3 over the Ravens in ’04. Browns are 4-14 vs spread in HO’s, 3-2 in last five- they’re 2-12 vs spread in Week 1 HO’s. Steelers are 8-1 in last nine series games; they won three of last four visits here, with wins by 16-16-17 points. Pittsburgh lost five of last six road openers, four of last six season openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten AO’s. Browns were 1-7 as home underdogs this year, are 13-21-1 as home dogs since 2010; they’re 1-8 in NFC North home games the last three years. Pittsburgh is 10-6 as a road favorite last two years, 4-2 in division games. Under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games.

Colts @ Rams — Luck is out here; Tolzien (0-2-1 as starter) gets the start. Goff had very little chance as rookie LY because Rams’ OL sucked; now we see if new regime has improved that unit. Rams were 1-4-1 as home dogs LY, are 22-30-2 in that role, since 2007. Over is 20-15 in their last 35 home games. Colts 1-3 as road favorites the last two years; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Indy lost six of last seven season openers, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven road openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine season openers. Rams lost last 10 season openers, but won four of last five home openers; this is their first home opener in SoCal since 1994. First game for 31-year old Rams’ HC McVay; Rams hammered Colts 38-8 (+8 ) in last meeting, in 2013. Indy beat McVay’s Redskins 49-27 in ’14.

Seahawks @ Packers — Packers beat Seahawks last two years, 27-17/38-10; Seahawks lost last seven visits here- their last win at Lambeau was in ’99. Seattle lost nine of last ten road openers; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Home team won nine of their last ten season openers. Green Bay won nine of last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); five of their last six went over total- their last six Week 1 games went over. Last three years, Packers are 14-7-2 as home favorites; they’re 8-12 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Under is 11-5 in their last 16 home games. Since ’11, Seahawks are 11-5-5 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 8-5-2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Panthers @ 49ers — Niners are on 4th head coach in four years. How healthy is Newton’s shoulder? Panthers gave up 81 points LY in two games vs Shanahan’s Atlanta offense- 49ers’ personnel is obviously inferior. SF is 7-7 as home dog the last two years; under is 22-10 in their last 32 home games. Carolina is 6-12-1 as a road favorite under Rivera. In franchise history, Carolina is 1-6 vs spread as a favorite in road openers; Panthers lost six of last eight road openers- over is 6-3 in their last nine. Carolina lost six of last eight season openers. 49ers won five of last six home openers, covered seven of last eight, with last three staying under total. Carolina (-12.5) hammered 49ers 46-27 in Week 2 LY, their 5th win in last six games vs SF.

Giants @ Cowboys — Rivals meet in Week 1 for 4th time in last five years- this is 5th year in row Giants open on road. Big Blue won last three meetings with Cowboys; they swept Dallas 21-20/10-7 LY. Giants lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 1-10-5 points. Since ’08, Cowboys are vs spread 20-36 as home favorites (4-2 LY); over is 9-6-1 in their last 16 home games. Last 3 years, Giants are 5-8-2 as road underdogs; under was 7-1 in their road games LY, McAdoo’s first as HC. Big Blue lost five of last seven road openers, with last two decided by a point apiece. Over is 11-2 in Giants’ last 14 road openers. Dallas won four of its last six home openers, but is 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine.

Armadillosports.com

Pick Six - Week 1
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Falcons (-7, 49½) at Bears

Atlanta

Preseason Record: 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS
2016 Record: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS
Season Win Total: 9 ½ (Over -110)

Atlanta opens up its NFC title defense at Soldier Field, as a Super Bowl championship slipped through the Falcons’ hands in February’s overtime defeat to the Patriots. Since 1998, only one NFC team has played in consecutive Super Bowls (Seattle 2013-14), so the task isn’t daunting for Atlanta, but it won’t be easy. What also isn’t easy is motivation for Super Bowl losers in their season opener as those squads own a dreadful 5-13 SU and 3-15 ATS record since 1999.

Chicago

Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2016 Record: 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 5½ (Under -125)

The Bears go into the season with questions at the quarterback position. Offseason acquisition Mike Glennon gets the start ahead of second overall pick Mitchell Trubisky as Chicago’s offense looks for a boost after being held to 17 points of fewer 10 times last season. The Bears actually closed 2016 on a 4-1 ATS run at home, including underdog covers against Green Bay, Tennessee, and Minnesota. Chicago has won each of the past two meetings with Atlanta, as the Bears destroyed the Falcons on opening day in 2011 by a 30-12 count.

Best Bet: Chicago +7

Eagles (-1, 48) at Redskins

Philadelphia

Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2016 Record: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Season Win Total: 8½ (Over -120)

Philadelphia flew out of the gate in Carson Wentz’s rookie season by starting 3-0, capped off by a blowout home win over Pittsburgh. However, the Eagles picked up only four victories the rest of the season, while losing their final seven games away from Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia heads to the Nation’s Capital with double-revenge on its mind after getting swept by Washington last season, as the Eagles have dropped five straight matchups with the Redskins.

Washington

Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2016 Record: 8-7-1 SU, 10-6 ATS
Season Win Total: 7½ (Under -150)

After losing their first two games last season, the Redskins ran off four straight victories. However, Washington fell short of the postseason by losing four of its final six contests. There should be plenty of points scored at FedEx Field as both meetings in 2016 finished OVER the total, while Washington went 6-2 to the OVER at home last season. In two victories against the Eagles last season, the Redskins held Philadelphia’s offense to only one touchdown.

Best Bet: Washington +1

Cardinals (-1, 48½) at Lions

Arizona

Preseason Record: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS
2016 Record: 7-8-1 SU, 6-10 ATS
Season Win Total: 8½ (Over -140)

Following an NFC championship appearance in 2015, the Cardinals took a step back in 2016 by posting a 7-8-1 record and missing the playoffs. Arizona finished last season on a high note with victories at Seattle and San Francisco, but the Cardinals went 3-5 on the highway. The Cardinals have owned the Lions over the years by winning seven straight meetings dating back to 2006, while manhandling Detroit at Ford Field in 2015 in a 42-17 blowout.

Detroit

Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2016 Record: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS
Season Win Total: 7½ (Under -170)

The Lions inked quarterback Matthew Stafford to a brand new deal, while hoping that can propel Detroit to consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 1994 and 1995. Detroit sputtered at the end of last season with three consecutive losses before bowing out to Seattle in the Wild Card round. What helped the Lions reach the playoffs was five wins by three points each, as Detroit put together a solid 6-2 record at Ford Field.

Best Bet: Arizona -1

Raiders at Titans (-2, 50½)

Oakland

Preseason Record: 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS
2016 Record: 12-4 SU, 6-10 ATS
Season Win Total: 9½ (Under -130)

The Raiders were cruising to an AFC West title and a potential showdown with the Patriots for the AFC championship. Those dreams were shattered along with Derek Carr’s leg in a late-season injury that put the Oakland quarterback out of commission for the playoffs. In spite of getting ousted by Houston in the Wild Card round, the Raiders posted a 12-4 record to go along with a 6-2 mark away from the Coliseum. Oakland limited Tennessee to its lowest point total of the season in 2016 by knocking off the Titans, 17-10 last September.

Tennessee

Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2016 Record: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 9 (Under -115)

Tennessee has high expectations placed on them entering Marcus Mariota’s third season at quarterback. The Titans closed 2016 strong by winning four of their final five games to finish at 9-7, the franchise’s first winning season since 2011. Tennessee is hosting Oakland for the third straight season, as the Titans have lost the last two seasons by a combined 10 points to the Raiders. Since Mariota took over at quarterback, the Titans have compiled a 3-4-1 ATS record as a home favorite.

Best Bet: Oakland +2

Ravens at Bengals (-3, 42½)

Baltimore

Preseason Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2016 Record: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 8½ (Under -145)

These AFC North rivals are hooking up on opening day for the first time since 2014 as the Ravens look to avenge a 23-16 home defeat. Baltimore is fresh off a perfect preseason, but the Ravens didn’t get a lot of work out of quarterback Joe Flacco. He is expected to play on Sunday after missing most of the preseason with a back injury, while Baltimore shoots for its first road victory since Week 3 last season at Jacksonville. The Ravens dropped their final six road contests in 2016, including a 27-10 drubbing in Week 17 at Cincinnati.

Cincinnati

Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
2016 Record: 6-9-1 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 8½ (Under -135)

The Bengals won the division two seasons ago, but fell backwards in 2016 by winning just six games, while picking up consecutive victories only one time. Cincinnati is riding a three-game hot streak in season openers, while playing Week 1 at Paul Brown Stadium for the first time since 2009. The Bengals haven’t lost at home to the Ravens since 2012, while the home team owns an 8-2 record in the series in the last 10 matchups.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -3

Seahawks at Packers (-3, 50½)

Seattle

Preseason Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
2016 Record: 10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS
Season Win Total: 10½ (Over -125)

Seattle rallied to stun Green Bay in the NFC championship in 2014 before losing in the Super Bowl to New England on the final play. The Seahawks haven’t made a Super Bowl since but have qualified for the postseason each of the past five seasons. The last two seasons the Seahawks have come up short against the Packers at Lambeau Field, including a 38-10 drubbing to Green Bay last December as a three-point road favorite.

Green Bay

Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS
2016 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 10½ (Under -140)

The Packers made it all the way to the NFC title game last season before getting blitzed by the Falcons. Hopes are still high for a Super Bowl appearance in Titletown this season as the Packers won seven of nine games at Lambeau Field in 2016. The Packers overcame a November swoon in which they dropped four straight games to finish the regular season with six straight victories before playoff triumphs over the Giants and Cowboys prior to the Atlanta loss in the championship.

Best Bet: Seattle +3

NFL Week 1 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

The 2017 regular season is here. Schedule makers deserve a pat on the back for putting together some complex, attractive matchups. Let's get into thought process mode in handicapping Week 1's offerings:

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Sean McDermott era officially opens at home with Tyrod Taylor under center after he cleared concussion protocol. He had a rough preseason even before the Ravens knocked him out early in their Aug. 26 dress rehearsal win. Rookie Nathan Peterman, a fifth-round pick from Pittsburgh, was one of the few bright spots alongside fellow first-year wideout Zay Jones, so given the decision to move on from the oft-injured Sammy Watkins, this looks like a rebuilding season in Buffalo. The Jets made no secret that's what is in store for them, dealing Sheldon Richardson to Seattle and moving off of veterans like Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold, David Harris, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and disappointing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Josh McCown will take over to start the season until Bryce Petty inevitably gets his shot, which makes this the week's ugliest matchup. Todd Bowles is 1-1 (SU/ATS) in openers and swept the Bills last season for two of New York's five wins.

Atlanta at Chicago: Reigning MVP Matt Ryan and his teammates can finally turn the page on their Super Bowl disappointment and will be close to full strength since Devonta Freeman returned after missing a few weeks with a concussion. Only rookie RB Brian Hill is questionable, so the Bears will have to deal with an attack that entered the Patriots loss averaging 39 points per game and would've captured a championship had they broken 30 in regulation. Chicago surrendered 30 or more points in each of its last three games but returns Top-10 pick Leonard Floyd to help Vic Fangio's unit turn things around. Offensively, the Bears suffered a major setback in the preseason when top wideout Cameron Meredith was lost to a knee injury, putting pressure on former No. 7 pick Kevin White to emerge as Mike Glennon's go-to option following two seasons ruined by injuries. It will be interesting to see how he handles being covered by the likes of Marcus Trufant, but he's likely to get opportunities to show what he can do.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Ravens didn't expose Joe Flacco in the preseason due to a painful disc issue in his back but always held out hope that he'd be ready when the season rolled around. That faith was rewarded when he returned this week, joined by newly acquired Danny Woodhead and Breshad Perriman, both of whom were dealing with hamstring injuries. Although Baltimore was again greatly affected by injuries in training camp, its prospects look better than they appeared a month ago and improve since Bengals defensive standouts Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones are suspended and safety Shawn Williams is out at least a month with an elbow dislocation. The Bengals did get good news on Jeremy Hill (ankle), who is healed enough to round out a running back rotation alongside rookie Joe Mixon and the versatile Giovani Bernard that will try and crack a Baltimore run defense that allowed the NFL's fifth-fewest yards in '16. Because of the continuity of both coaching staffs, there doesn't figure to be a lot that will surprise the opposing side, but Cincinnati has won six of seven meetings between these AFC North rivals since 2014.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The other half of the division is also pitted against each other as the Steelers look to get off to a strong start by extending their winning streak over the Browns to five. Mike Tomlin is 17-3 against the AFC North's resident doormat since taking over in '07. All the losses have come at FirstEnergy Stadium, but Cleveland is starting rookie DeShone Kizer and only won last Christmas Eve over its last 19 games. Although this season also figures to be an uphill climb, the emergence of Kizer this preseason and an improved-looking defense fortified by the presence of first-round picks Myles Garrett and Jabril Peppers has the franchise optimistic. Garrett suffered a high ankle sprain in practice and is out for the first few weeks, so Ben Roethlisberger will have one fewer playmaker to concern himself with and now has Joe Haden on his side. He's also got Martavis Bryant back to help stretch the field after he was reinstated following a season-long suspension last year. Le'Veon Bell ended his holdout on Sept. 1 and reported to camp in shape, so it's unlikely not being around this preseason will hold him back.

Arizona at Detroit: It was an eventful offseason for the Lions with Matthew Stafford getting his lucrative extension and the opportunity to test themselves against the Patriots in the preseason's most important week blowing up in their face. Detroit comes into this one with DE Ziggy Ansah, LB Tahir Whitehead and TE Eric Ebron ready to play after camp ailments, so there can be no excuses if they fail to protect their homefield in this first test. The Cardinals defense will be missing key cog Deonne Bucannon (ankle) and may be without DT Robert Nkemdiche, who is struggling to overcome a calf injury. Since both teams are expected to compete for playoff berths despite not being their division's favorite, getting a leg up immediately would provide a huge boost to whoever gets it together first. The Lions have lost seven consecutive games against Arizona after winning back in 2005. Stafford himself is 0-5, throwing just four touchdowns against 10 interceptions.

Jacksonville at Houston: Tom Savage held off rookie Desean Watson's charge to win the Texans' starting QB gig, while Blake Bortles did the same against Chad Henne with the Jaguars. Neither inspires a ton of confidence, particularly Bortles, who followed up a brutal 2016 season by looking extremely shaky in camp, holding on to his job only after a strong fourth quarter against Bucs backups. He'll have Marquise Lee back in the mix from an ankle issue in addition to No. 4 pick Leonard Fournette debuting next to him at running back, so he'll at least have a fighting chance against a fierce looking Houston defense. The Texans are likely to have a conservative game plan in place since receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Braxton Miller are banged up and Jaelen Strong (suspended) and Will Fuller (collarbone) are ruled out. If Savage's game management skills don't pan out, there's a chance Watson joins Kizer as rookies seeing action under center on the NFL's opening Sunday.

Oakland at Tennessee: These teams are each favored to win their AFC divisions, led by elite young QBs that have already made significant strides to prove their legitimacy. That makes this a great early test for both that could have homefield implications come playoffs. Marcus Mariota had a shaky training camp, but could look sharper given time to cram for this one with veteran Eric Decker (ankle) and rookies Corey Davis (hamstring) and Taywan Taylor (calf) set to return. With David Amerson (concussion) and rookie Gareon Conley (shin) missing time of late and Khalil Mack (knee) coming in with a pre-existing issue, Oakland may not be ready to defend on the road like they managed to last season in winning six of eight. Derek Carr has made some plays in his return from a broken fibula suffered last Christmas Eve, and he'll have a loaded, healthy offense that includes wrecking ball Marshawn Lynch to rely upon.

Philadelphia at Washington: Seeing the Eagles open as an early road favorite is certainly disrespectful to the 'Skins, but indicative of the direction bookmakers see these franchises going this season. Carson Wentz is expected to make a jump with veteran receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith coming on board and LeGarrette Blount around to gain tough yards. Kirk Cousins will have to succeed without veteran weapons DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, giving Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson more of a stage. The Eagles haven't defeated Washington in their last five meetings and have won only once in Landover since 2011, so this would be an important first step if they are to have a breakout year.

Indianapolis at L.A. Rams: The best players on both sides here, QB Andrew Luck and DT Aaron Donald, won't be a part of the action. Luck is hurt and Donald is holding out for the paycheck he's earned himself, so both teams will have to tune into their inner MacGyver to emerge from Week 1 unscathed. Indianapolis will also have to replace center Ryan Kelly and top corner Vontae Davis in addition to relying on Scott Tolzien to help produce a road win. 30-year-old Sean McVay is under the microscope as the youngest head coach in NFL history and matches minds with beleaguered veteran Chuck Pagano in a favorite's role. If L.A. can generate pressure and make like difficult on the Colts without the esteemed Donald, they could win a home game at the Coliseum for the first time since shocking the Seahawks in last season's home opener.

Seattle at Green Bay: The Packers got great news with tackle Brian Bulaga returning to practice and feeling no ill effects from his sprained ankle, suggesting he'll be out there helping protect Aaron Rodgers against a fierce-looking Seahawks decent fortified by the addition of a healthy Sheldon Richardson. It wouldn't be surprising if Seattle gets immediate production given his desire to fit in on another elite line after a great run when healthy in New York. It's looking like this is going to be a fair fight between the two teams that entered the week as 7-to-2 co-favorites (Westgate Superbook) to get out of the NFC. Russell Wilson spent his senior season at Wisconsin and helped beat the Packers as a rookie on that Hail Mary that should've never been called a touchdown by replacement refs, but he's suffered blowout losses in his two trips to Lambeau the last two seasons, throwing six interceptions.

Carolina at San Francisco: Cam Newton threw two passes in a preseason win as the Panthers rightfully kept his focus on healing up his surgically repaired throwing shoulder. That's provided little opportunity to gel with new weapons Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, so you can count on Ron Rivera placing the burden of getting off to a strong start on his capable defense. Key DT Vernon Butler is wearing a heavy brace on a sprained knee he hurt early in the preseason and may not move around normally if he plays at all. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan wouldn't commit to starters beyond starting QB Brian Hoyer and former All-Pro tackle Joe Staley, so he's looking for individuals to prove they deserve playing time on this team he's inherited. Shanahan, who has to take a lot of blame for Atlanta blowing the Super Bowl, is San Francisco's fourth head coach in as many seasons. Making sure no one comes into the season comfortable is probably right the strategy since there are few guys on the roster who have consistently brought it on the field.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott's immediate future may extend beyond this game if he wins his legal battle to put off a six-game suspension, but with nothing guaranteed there, the Cowboys really need to lock in on putting this divisional home game in their pocket. That's especially true since New York comes in vulnerable due to Odell Beckham Jr.'s potential absence and the fact other receivers come in banged up. Ben McAdoo ended a winless three-game run for the Giants in Dallas by surviving 20-19 in his head coaching debut last season. He then snapped the Cowboys' 11-game winning streak with a 10-7 comeback win in December. New York hadn't swept Dallas since '11, so the fact both games were so close and ended in disappointment is certain to be a driving force for the host Cowboys. Head coach Jason Garrett is 3-3 in season openers, with victimizing the Giants accounting for all his victories.

Monday, Sept. 11

New Orleans at Minnesota: While Adrian Peterson returning to Minneapolis clad in black and gold is the primary story line, his production isn't likely to be the determining factor in this matchup. Or maybe it will be. In that regard, it's going to be riveting to see what Sean Payton has in store for a new-look offense that will be breaking in Peterson and rookie back Alvin Kamara while also missing their second and third-leading receivers from last season with Cooks gone and Willie Snead suspended. Complicating matters, left tackle Terron Armstead will miss at least the first month with a shoulder issue, so squaring off with a fantastic defense on the road right off the bat isn't ideal. Payton hasn't won a season opener on the road since 2006, but his Saints could feel comfortable in a dome despite a daunting road atmosphere that Drew Brees is certainly experienced enough to handle. The Vikings are confident rookie DT Jaleel Johnson can adequately replace the injured Sharrif Floyd, but the starting offense struggled in the preseason and is loaded with question marks. Can rookie RB Dalvin Cook execute at a high level immediately? It seems fitting that A.P. will be in the building to see how his replacement fares.

L.A. Chargers at Denver: The Broncos decided Trevor Siemian was their QB early on in this preseason, so we'll see whether increased reps will pay off for all involved. There have been conflicting reports over how hampered Demaryius Thomas has been by a groin injury suffered in the Aug. 26 dress rehearsal, but he's going to be out there. Denver was perfect this preseason under new head coach Vance Joseph, while the Chargers won only once as they transitioned to L.A. under first-year head coach Anthony Lynn. Feel free to dismiss all that if you want because Philip Rivers completed all but one of his 12 passes and directed touchdown drives in each of his three possessions. He was a part of a 9-2 run against the Broncos from '06-'11, but has most recently dropped nine of 11 head-to-head meetings. With Keenan Allen back, there's cause for optimism, but we'll know a lot more about how seriously to take these Chargers after this one.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 1
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-2, 50.5)

Raiders' red zone D woes vs. Titans' touchdown parade

Two teams with high hopes in their respective divisions do battle at Nissan Stadium this Sunday afternoon as the Oakland Raiders visit the Tennessee Titans. The hosts have remade their passing offense for quarterback Marcus Mariota, who is expected to take a big step forward in his third year in the league. The Raiders are coming off an impressive 12-4 campaign in the AFC West, but their modest +31 point differential suggests that record might have been a bit overinflated.

Oakland was one of the most prolific offensive teams in the AFC a season ago, and still has all of its key weapons in the passing game in quarterback David Carr and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. But the defense faltered at times in 2016, particularly in the red zone. The Raiders allowed teams to score touchdowns on 60 percent of their trips inside the 20, the seventh-worst rate in the league. It was a big step back for Oakland, which boasted a 51.8 percent opponent red-zone TD rate in 2015.

Improvement in that area will be a must - especially this weekend, with the Titans coming off a season that saw them go 9-7 despite being the most successful team in the league at scoring red-zone touchdowns. Tennessee boasted a 72 percent success rate at turning red-zone visits into end-zone celebrations, well ahead of runner-up San Francisco. With Mariota now blessed with a cache of receiving options - including end-zone threat Eric Decker - it could be a long day for the visiting Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)

Steelers' discipline issues vs. Browns' good behavior

Big Ben and the boys are back on their quest for a Super Bowl championship - and that journey begins with a two-hour drive to Cleveland for a date with the perennially rebuilding Browns. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a full compliment of offensive weapons, with Martavis Bryant back from suspension to join mega-stars Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. But the Steelers will need to be better disciplined than they were in 2016 if they hope to lift the Lombardi Trophy at season's end.

Pittsburgh has elite-level talent on both sides of the ball - but none of that matters if the Steelers are racking up penalty flags. The team finished with the third-most accepted penalty yards in the league last season (1,200), including three games with 100 or more penalty yards accrued (not surprisingly, they went 1-2 in those contests.) The final 2016 tally includes a whopping 26 offensive holding calls and 23 false start penalties, both top-eight in the NFL.

Cleveland didn't do a lot of things well last season - or in most seasons this decade - but at least it was polite. The Browns finished with the second-fewest accepted penalty yards in football (736), ahead of only the geographic-rival Cincinnati Bengals. In what might be the most incredible stat of all, Cleveland had just one offensive pass interference penalty all season; eight teams finished with at least four. With a major skill gap between these teams, a penalty discrepancy might just keep things close.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 42.5)

Ravens' stifling 2H defense vs. Bengals' late scoring woes

The latest edition of an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Bengals kicks off Sunday afternoon at Paul Brown Stadium, with both teams facing question marks on offense. Baltimore will look to integrate a pair of new pieces - running back Danny Woodhead and receiver Jeremy Maclin - into quarterback Joe Flacco's high-energy offense. The Bengals also have a new arrival in rookie rusher Joe Mixon - and he'll look to improve his team's woeful second-half scoring output from a season ago.

It won't be easy for Cincinnati in the season opener, with the Bengals squaring off against a Ravens defense that comes into the season ranked among the league's best yet again. Baltimore finished just outside the top-10 in the league in second half points allowed per game last season (10.6), a total that would have been in single digits were it not for a late-season collapse (43 second half points surrendered over the final three games).

The Bengals' offense left much to be desired last season, particularly after halftime. The Bengals finished with the sixth-fewest second half points per contest (8.4) and were an offensive abomination at home, averaging a minuscule 5.6 second-half points in eight games at Paul Brown Stadium. In a game that is expected to be a tightly contested affair, Cincinnati will need to find some second-half offense or risk losing a key divisional matchup right off the bat.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)

Giants' vaunted defense vs. Cowboys' O-line cracks

The NFC East is expected to be one of the most hotly contested divisions in football this season - and the Giants have done their part to make sure they're contending at the end. New York went on a defensive spending spree during the offseason, and have put themselves in position to be one of the top defensive units in the NFL. That quest begins Sunday against a Cowboys team that still has one of the league's top offensive lines - but there are cracks in the armor heading into Week 1.

New York slumbered through the first part of last season, failing to generate much of a pass rush while ranking near the bottom of the league in sacks. That all changed in the second half, as the Giants finished the season in the middle of the pack in sacks overall and comes into this season with a stacked defensive line featuring Jason Pierre-Paul, Olivier Vernon, Jay Bromley and Damon Harrison. Add in Pro Bowl defensive back Landon Wilson, and you have the makings of a top-tier unit.

That said, New York will still have its hands full with a Dallas offensive line that returns three Pro Bowlers and has the benefit of one of the best pass-blocking running backs in football in Ezekiel Elliott - at least, until his six-game suspension takes effect. But the Cowboys also enter the year with unknowns at left guard (Chaz Green/Jonathan Cooper) and right tackle (La'el Collins) - and if the Giants can exploit those perceived weaknesses Sunday, the Cowboys might struggle to contain the pressure.

NFL Week 1 lines that make you go hmmm...
By: Peter Korner
Covers.com

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 40.5)

This is probably is one of the worst games of the opening schedule. Like many other first games of the year, the opening line has jumped significantly since it was first posted. Opening as 6-point favorites, the Bills are now favored as high as they’ve ever been in Nevada for a long time.

The general movement began when Bills money came in early more as an anti-Jet statement. But the line has split sportsbooks around the state after the Tyrod Taylor injury. Lines vary from a low of -7.5 to a high of -9.

My feeling is if Taylor does in fact play, the -7.5 looks like a foregone conclusion to move towards the higher number. Backup Nathan Peterson has been solid in his brief outings during the preseason but if he starts, the game will look a lot different than when he was playing against a store of fringe players and bench warmers.

I’m seeing this line to continue to climb where most to all of the sportsbooks will see a consensus of -8.5 or -9 by the opening kickoff. In that case, as bad as they seem, the Jets may be a good bargain. The Bills haven’t proved to be able to win, let alone cover one of the largest spreads of week one.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+1, 48)

The Eagles have received all of the love since this game opened as Washington the 2.5-point favorites in the summer.

Personally, I think the betting public has totally miscalculated this game. Washington has won the last five games between them and they should prove worthy of our consideration in this season opening game.

With so little to go on as far as data support, one just has to view the teams for their face value. Washington has tremendous offensive power but had difficulty landing in the end zone once they were in striking position last season. There should be an improvement there, particularly with the Eagles vulnerable defensive backfield.

Although these teams are not separated by much, the Redskins should be able to muster up a win in their home opener. Anytime you don’t have to give up any points at home, there has to be value in that.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 42)

This line moved 6.5 points to the current number with the announcement that Colts QB Andrew Luck will be out. Scott Tolzien gets the start and though I totally understand the drop off between the two, a 6.5-point jump putting the Rams as a half point over the key three barrier, has me believing the Colts are a value play in Week 1.

I’m not going to hang my hat on this Rams team until they can prove they can compete. Their predictive 5.5 team wins adds fuel to my speculation that this team will have a very long season. The Colts (with Luck in) are around the nine-win level. Even without their starter, the Colts have enough on each side of the line to win this outright, or at the least, keep this very close.

There’s been enough time for the Colts to have somewhat gelled without Luck and an opening road game against a team like the Rams has to have put some energy on their sideline that they can steal a win here. There’s good value with that hook and we’ll take it as long as it remains on the board that high.

Top-5 Plays for NFL Week 1
Vegasinsider.com

Atlanta Falcons -6.0 over Chicago Bears

The standard practice of the oddsmakers, even at BetOnline.ag, is to grade Week 1 games with this awkward scale that protects them from the unknown. Slotting the Falcons with a six-point handicap is semi ridiculous when you consider the lengths Chicago has gone through to be bad.

Why on earth are you bothering with the Bears? Stop it! Chicago went 7-9 ATS last season but almost all of that happened during a strange cover streak at the end of the season. The Bears started the year 1-6 SU and ATS against lines that were similar to this one.

Atlanta isn’t just the defending conference champions from last season. They’re also the same team that went 10-6 ATS last year and led the league in all sorts of offensive metrics. I’m not banking that Mike Glennon is good enough to keep this game close. This feels like easy money, or a great parlay stuffer.

Houston Texans -5.0 over Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s a coincidental tragedy that both Florida and Texas are enduring the worst floods and storms the country has seen this century, and perhaps ever. Hurricane Irma is not as likely to slam Jacksonville the same way Hurricane Harvey leveled Houston, but hopes and prayers are with everyone who’s felt the brunt of the impact.

It’s hard not to get emotional about a matchup with teams like this, but you can probably use that to your advantage. Houston is simply not letting this game get away from them. Not only has Jacksonville had significant questions at quarterback, their offensive line isn’t nearly as good as it was supposed to be. That’s trouble against a healthy J.J. Watt. But a completely motivated J.J. Watt? That’s big trouble.

The Texans have gone 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last three years against Jacksonville as well. That’s why this line at BetOnline.ag is such a straightforward choice. Throw in all the emotional ammo the Texans will be playing with as they continue to put a city on their back, and you have a simple choice to make.

Arizona Cardinals -2.0 over Detroit Lions

The Cardinals were one of the biggest letdown teams in the entire league last year, going a brutal 6-10 ATS as one of the worst bets out there. So why the redemption song? This is more so a bet against Detroit than anything else. Aside from making Matthew Stafford the highest paid quarterback in the league, the Lions haven’t done much of anything to vastly improve their position. Arizona having a bad year is one thing. Detroit being not-great all around is another. Take the Cardinals as a miniscule favorite.

Carolina Panthers -5.0 over San Francisco 49ers

The Niners may be on the right track, but the last time I checked they’re still the worst team in the conference by a country mile. I’m sure you could talk yourself in to Brian Hoyer and Carlos Hyde or something else, but the fact is that San Francisco won’t be a great early bet for a long time. Not until GM Jon Lynch has some time to cultivate the savagery he pulled in last year’s draft. Carolina is on the cusp of rebounding from a morbid 2016 season, like the Cardinals, and there’s much more reason to be optimistic as they get an extreme value play as road favorites.

New York Giants +4.0 over Dallas Cowboys

I just want in on the biggest game of the weekend! The Giants-Cowboys matchups are always a complete apocalypse. I love them. The surprising thing? The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. You aren’t necessarily betting on Dallas’s offence taking a step back or Dak Prescott regressing in his sophomore season. More than anything it’s that if the Giants get up for any opponent (that’s not New England in the Super Bowl) it’s the Dallas Cowboys.

NFL Underdogs: Week 1 Pointspread Picks and Predictions
By: Jason Logan
Covers.com

I do not travel well.

It’s not that I get sick on airplanes or lose my luggage or anything. My body has a hard time adjusting to time changes. Case in point: I’m in Las Vegas for Week 1 of NFL, which is a 3-hour time difference from my usual clock on Eastern time.

Three hours doesn’t seem like a lot (I’m not in Tokyo or New Zealand) but when your kids consistently wake you up at 6 a.m. ET every day (they need their sunrise pancake/Paw Patrol fix), your body clock has you “up and at ‘em” at 3 a.m. PT Vegas time. Toss in that our head office is on Atlantic Time (4-hour difference from Vegas) and my phone and email start buzzing at 4:30 a.m. like a toddler on Christmas morning. There's no getting back to sleep.

As of this writing, my sleep debt is in the red more than NFL TV ratings. But at least I travel better than the Carolina Panthers. Going back to 2011, when Cam Newton took over under center, the Panthers are 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS when playing out west (either PT or MT). That's where they open the 2017 schedule, at San Francisco as 5.5-point road chalk.

Carolina was especially wiped on the left side of the country in 2016, when it finished 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. That was part of a season-long Super Bowl hangover that resulted in a 6-10 record with an equally-gross 6-9-1 ATS mark. Even before last season’s shart, the Panthers weren’t great travelers and have been a liability when giving the points on the road. Carolina is just 8-12-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2011.

San Francisco is looking forward to putting the Chip Kelly/Jim Tomsula dark ages behind them and the fog seems to have lifted in the Bay Area with Kyle Shanahan at the wheel. While he’s known more for his offensive play calling, I believe this Niners defense is better than advertised. A pick here, a sack there, and sprinkle in a special teams touchdown, and I’ll sleep a little better after going for gold with the 49ers in Week 1.

Pick: San Francisco +5.5

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-3, 50.5)

Las Vegas was already a Raiders town. Every Sunday, the sportsbooks were lined with Silver and Black. And now that Oakland is swapping spots for Sin City in three years, there's a hometown push for the Raiders in the middle of the desert. That’s made them the most public play of Week 1.

But despite that public money, the line is swinging the other way with sharp action all over Tennessee. The Titans have jumped from +1.5 to 3-point home favorites for this opener, and I understand why. I understand, but I don’t agree with it.

Tennessee is everyone's "Sleeper Pick" for 2017 but looked like crap in the preseason (I know, I know. Preseason), more notably the starters in limited run. Marcus Mariota wasn’t sharp in exhibition play, completing 12-of-21 passes in the Week 3 preseason game versus Chicago, and was a beat behind his offense. I see this bleeding over into Week 1, leaving the Titans short against a very explosive Oakland scoring attack.

People love to fade the public, but at a field goal, I’m now just one of the tens of thousands of bettors cheering for the Las Vegas… excuse me… Oakland Raiders Sunday.

Pick: Oakland +3

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 40)

I missed the Jets at +9 and +9.5 but I’m grabbing them at +8.5 against the Patriots Sunday.

Wait. What’s that you say? The Jets are playing the Bills in Week 1? Not New England?

Sorry, at first glance this spread looks ready made for a classic Jets-Pats AFC East shit kicking. But upon further inspection, it seems the betting public feels the same way about Gang Green as my 12-year-old son does about garbage day: it stinks and he wants to pretend it doesn’t exist (Note to self: remind the boy to take the trash out while I’m away).

The Bills were giving as many as 9.5 points to the Jets. The same Bills team that is under a new head coach. The same Bills team that flooded news wires this summer with a flood of trades and moves, and should have as much cohesion as an NFL-led investigation. And the same Bills team whose QB is one good smack away from being back in concussion protocol.

The Jets will be bad. But the Bills won’t be great.

Pick: New York +8.5

NFL Week 1 Top Totals
Vegasinsider.com

With football excitement reaching a fever pitch now that Week 1 has finally arrived, some bettors have a tendency to overlook totals during the opening week.

All summer it's been about breaking down how good each team will be, their respective schedules, and what type of futures wagers in terms of season win totals, playoff odds, Super Bowl odds etc that's garnered all the attention.

Admittedly totals are a bit tougher in Week 1 because there isn't any in-season data to use and we've yet to see these teams play a single game, but that can also work to your advantage.

I say that because oddsmakers are working off the same information everyone else has in terms of projections this week.

NFL point spreads are known for being the toughest to beat as a sports bettor, but totals generally leave bettors with a bit more wiggle room, and that margin for error arguably isn't going to be as big as it will be during Week 1.

So now that the totals have had weeks to settle from early action, here are a couple best bets from divisional games during Week 1 totals that you should definitely consider adding to your betting card.

Best Bet #1: Pittsburgh/Cleveland Over 46.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers should have a very good 2017 season as long as all their key components stay healthy and that's not really a concern for Week 1. Big Ben and the rest of his weapons should be able to tear up a Cleveland defense, that while improved, are still very young. Pittsburgh put up at least 24 points on Cleveland in both of their games a year ago, and I highly doubt that this game will be any different.

The Steelers have become known for their propensity to go for two after a TD at least 50% of the time and that mentality of aggressiveness seeps into their whole method of attack. Le'Veon Bell is well rested after sitting out the preseason (rust shouldn't be an issue), and Roethlisberger gets WR Martavis Bryant back after his year-long suspension a year ago. Pittsburgh is 11-4 O/U during Week 1 games the last 15 years and their aggressive mindset should force the Browns to be in catchup mode early on.

For a play like this to cash, we will need Cleveland to do their part and put a few scores on the board and I believe they will. Cleveland is going with rookie QB DeShone Kizer under center and after years of stop gaps and unqualified guys at the position, Cleveland is happy to give the aggressive, young Notre Dame alum his time in the spotlight. Kizer has not been afraid to take shots and go deep during the preseason, and the level of comfort he has with his WR's – most notably Corey Coleman – is quite high. He'll want to go out and take some shots against a quality defense like the Steelers and that's never a bad thing for an 'over' play. Either Kizer connects with his receivers on some of those shots, or the young rookie coughs up the ball a few times and gives Pittsburgh a short field. Either way, points are in the foreseeable future.

Finally, because most bettors see a -9 spread on Pittsburgh here and expect the Steelers to blow out Cleveland early and let the defense bring it home in a 24-10 type game, a strong majority of bettors have already come in on the 'under.' VegasInsider's betting percentage numbers show more than 75% of the action has been on the low side of this total, and that's a minority I have no problem being a part of. Pittsburgh's offense is too loaded not to expect 30+ points from them here, and Cleveland's new positive outlook on the upward direction their organization is finally heading should be good for 17+ points with the rookie at the helm – even if it is in garbage time.

Best Bet #2: Philadelphia/Washington Under 48

Like all the bettors clamouring to the 'under' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game largely based on past history, bettors are pounding the 'over' in the Philadelphia/Washington game in Week 1 for similar reasons. Both meetings between these NFC East rivals a year ago cashed 'over' tickets, five of the last six meetings have gone 'over,' as have eight of the past 10. Nobody is particularly high on either defense involved here, and with Kirk Cousins on the franchise tag and Carson Wentz in his second pro season, the 80% of bettors on the 'over' according to VegasInsider are expecting these two to come out of the gate with guns blazing.

Yet, while many are high on the prospects of both offenses – especially the Eagles after they added some significant names this summer (Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, LeGarrette Blount) – I think we see one of those old “black and blue” games the NFC East was known for years ago. Both defenses have to be coming into this game feeling extremely disrespected with everyone already overlooking them, and after the run of 'overs' this rivalry has had, some regression to the mean could be in order.

Philadelphia is 3-8-1 O/U the last 12 years during their season opener, and have a 1-6 O/U run going during the month of September. A sophomore “slump” is not out of the question for Wentz in Week 1, and it remains to be seen just how “happy” Cousins is in Washington after being “tagged” for the second consecutive year. There was a bunch of talk about Cousins wanting to leave town this summer and while it appears to be patched up on the surface, I'd prefer to take a wait and see approach in that regard.

This is one of those games where the line has yet to budge despite the majority of action on the 'over' and being on the sportsbooks side in wanting a low-scoring, tight divisional game is not usually a bad thing.

NFL Week 1 Top Sides
Vegasinsider.com

The first full Sunday of NFL action for 2017 has finally arrived, and while we are now short a game thanks to Hurricane Irma, there are still 12 games on the board for bettors to break down.

All 12 of those games will see significant action from NFL bettors everywhere because nothing beats the NFL in terms of handle for sportsbooks, but after breaking down all the contests, I've come across a few sides you should definitely give a deeper look to if you are looking to come out ahead in Week 1.

Best Bet #1: Arizona Cardinals -1.5

The Cardinals open up the year with a trip to the East Coast to play the Detroit Lions. An indoor venue and two QB's that aren't shy about airing it out should lead to a few points being scored in that game, but in the end we should see Arizona come out on top. The Cardinals are projected to have a much better year overall from a season win total perspective, and this should end up being their first of many W's in 2017.

Fantasy football players will know that Arizona RB David Johnson has been a consensus top pick in fantasy leagues this year and for good reason. Johnson is an every-down back that can do everything well for Arizona. His presence forces opposing defenses to pick their poison with him, and if they choose to overload coverage to Johnson, QB Carson Palmer has multiple weapons he can go to in a heartbeat on the outside.

Yet, Detroit's defense isn't going to be good enough to simply “pick their poison” regarding Johnson, and no matter what the Cardinals do – as long as they take care of the football – they should find success. The Lions are going to be one of those 6-10 SU teams this year that can put up points but can't stop anyone, and with the spread already flipping over to the Cardinals side from early action the past few months, I'm likely not the only one that believes it. Detroit simply doesn't have playmakers on defense to make them a legit threat to any opposing offense, and the Lions 0-5 ATS run to end the 2016 season was definitely a sign of things to come.

Best Bet #2: Carolina Panthers -5.5

Arizona's NFC Championship opponent from 2015 (Carolina) is another NFC team laying chalk on the road in Week 1, and like the Cardinals, I've got no problem laying the chalk with them either. The Panthers are primed for a big rebound season in 2017 as health concerns for Cam Newton have subsided, and the entire roster has received upgrades at basically every position of “need.” Drafting Heisman finalist RB Christian McCaffrey should add another dynamic playmaker to this Panthers team who is already quite explosive when they are on, and San Francisco's defense shouldn't provide much resistance.

The 49ers are in a state of change and rebuilding with the new regime they hired over the off-season, and it's going to take a year or two before teams start legitimately considering the 49ers “contenders.” San Fran is basically a two-man attack on offense with RB Carlos Hyde and WR Pierre Garcon, and outside of Navorro Bowman on defense, it's a unit void of any household names. Simply put, this game is a pure mismatch on both sides of the field in favor of the Panthers and had this game been played a little later on in the year, I'm sure we'd see Carolina be laying at least a TD.

So with some line value on this -5.5 number thanks to it being in Week 1, and Carolina looking to add to their 8-1 ATS run in their last nine in San Fran, and 13-3 ATS run against the 49ers overall, this game should be one of the few Week 1 games that actually does turn into a blowout.

Total Talk - Week 1
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

The 2017 NFL regular season kicked off this past Thursday as Kansas City stunned New England 42-27 and bettors riding the ‘over’ wound up cashing the “total trifecta” as the game and both the first and second halves went to the high side. The opening NFL game has now seen the ‘over’ cash the last two seasons and four of the last five.

Due to the Hurricane hitting Florida this weekend, the Dolphins-Buccaneers game was postponed and Week 1 now has 14 games remaining with 12 of them scheduled on Sunday before the double-header on Monday.

This will be the 10th season of “Total Talk” and accept my apologies if the first installment isn’t up to speed. For the many of you that don’t know, the VegasInsider.com headquarters are located in South Florida and we’ve been evacuated to safety – fortunately!

With that being said, hope you and yours are safe and let’s have a great season.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest as of Saturday morning from the opening numbers that were first available in mid-April at BookMaker.eu. I lean to the major offshore outfit because their timeliness of posting early numbers is great and their overall volume is very well-known in the industry.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: 43 to 40
Jacksonville at Houston: 42 to 39½
Oakland at Tennessee: 51½ to 50½
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 47½ to 46½
Seattle at Green Bay: 49 to 50½
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: 49 to 47½

This season, we’re fortunate to lean on the man running the show behind the BookMaker.eu betting counter, Scott Cooley.

“We’ve seen pretty hefty support on the ‘under’ for the Jaguars-Texans total. The sharps fired at the 40s fairly early, and the public doesn’t have much interest in betting on a game with these two pedestrian teams,” said Cooley.

He added, “Another total we’re kind of crooked on is the Falcons-Bears game. The squares are offsetting somewhat with over bets, but the sharps have given us liability on the ‘under’ here.”

As mentioned above, the first nationally televised primetime game went ‘over’ on Thursday and Cooley is believing the public will carry that mantra into Sunday’s finale.

Cooley explained, “I think we’ll see that SNF total continue to escalate. It’s a marquee matchup and the public bettors will pound that over because they want to see fireworks.”

Week 1 Trends to Watch

The opening week is never an easy handicap but there are some solid opening game trends that you should check out for Week 1.

New Orleans Saints:Over 5-1 last six. The club is also 1-5 during this stretch, allowing 31, 37, 40, 42 and 35 in the defeats. To be fair, they have faced some juggernauts during this stretch including the Falcons twice, Packers and Raiders.

Buffalo Bills:Under 4-0 last four. Say what you want about former coach Rex Ryan, but the Bills only allowed 13 and 14 points in each of the last two openers.

Cincinnati Bengals:Over 6-1 last seven. The Bengals will meet the Ravens in Week 1 for the third time in the last five seasons. In the previous two, the outcomes finished 44-13 and 23-16.

Detroit Lions:Over 6-0 last five. Offense has scored 27, 27, 34, 25, 28 and 39 points the last six openers.

Green Bay Packers:Over 6-0. The defense has allowed 30-plus points in four of the six games during this span. Seattle visits on Sunday and the 'over' has gone 3-1 in the last four between this pair.

Divisional Matchups

We’ve got seven divisional matchups on tap in Week 1 and two of them will be played in the national primetime spots on Sunday and Monday.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo:The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five encounters between this pair but they did play to a 37-31 shootout last season in Buffalo. This is a tough game to handicap due to the lack of offensive talent on paper for the Jets, plus the Bills are starting over again under rookie head coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo was a great ‘over’ bet (12-4) last season but you have to wonder if that trend tempers off this fall.

Jacksonville at Houston:This matchup could will likely have the lowest closing total posted in Week 1. As of Saturday, the majority of betting shops are holding 39 ½ and bettors should note that the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five games in this series. However, the pair have only posted a combined 42.6 points per game during this stretch.

Philadelphia at Washington:The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the two regular season meetings last year and the high side is on a 6-3-1 run in this series. Washington scored exactly 27 points in both contests last season, both wins, and that’s the number they’re averaging (27.7 PPG) in the last 10 versus the Birds. The Eagles were lit up defensively on the road (25.9 PPG) last season and that led to a 6-1-1 ‘over’ mark. Philadelphia did add some offensive weapons in the offseason and it has been flip-flopped to the favorite for this game.

Baltimore at Cincinnati:These teams played to a pair of ugly games last season (19-14, 27-10) and the ‘under’ connected in both matchups. Both clubs have solid defensive units and the Bengals held teams to 16.7 PPG at home last season. Ravens QB Joe Flacco is expected to start after sitting out the entire preseason with back injury. The Bengals defense was great at home (16.7 PPG) last season but this unit will be missing LB Vontaze Burfict and CB Adam Jones to suspension on Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland:This total is hovering between 46 and 47 on Sunday and the highest closing total between these teams in the last 30 meetings was 47, which tells you the oddsmakers are expecting some points. I can see the argument for Pittsburgh’s attack, which has a ton of playmakers but making the case for the Browns isn’t easy. Cleveland had the second worst scoring offense (16.5 PPG) and they couldn’t do any damage in the second-half (6.1 PPG). Rookie QB DeShone Kizer will get the start for the Browns and these young quarterbacks haven’t been terrible (Prescott, Mariota, Winston) in their openers recently but certainly not super.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants:(See Below)

L.A. Chargers at Denver:(See Below)

Under the Lights

N.Y. Giants at Dallas:The ‘under’ cashed in both games last season as the Giants captured a pair of victories (20-19, 10-7) over the Cowboys. Prior to those outcomes, the ‘over’ had connected in the previous seven encounters. New York couldn’t score consistently last season (19 PPG) and that production helped the ‘under’ go 12-4. The Giants also boasted the fourth-best scoring defense (18.9 PPG) in 2016. Dallas put some points on the board last season (26.6 PPG) but they still leaned to the ‘under’ (10-6). Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) is ‘questionable’ for the Giants while the Cowboys will have RB Ezekiel Elliot ready to go. As our friends at BookMaker.eu mentioned above, these SNF games are ‘chaser’ games and the public usually leans high.

New Orleans at Minnesota:This matchup is your classic offense vs. defense and the total (48) is clearly based on the perception of the Saints, a team that can score in bunches and give up just as many in return. The highest total Minnesota had in a home game last season was 44, which happened twice. The Vikings only allowed 18 PPG at U.S. Bank Stadium last season and the offense (22.1 PPG) wasn’t exactly a juggernaut. The Saints did see their offense temper a bit on the road (27.6 PPG) and some pundits believe they’ll run a bit more this season, especially since they acquired former Viking Adrian Peterson.

L.A. Chargers at Denver: If you like to use trends in your handicapping, then check this out. In the last three seasons, all three games played at Mile High went ‘over’ the number while the three contests in San Diego went to the low side. Will that run continue on Monday? Since QB Peyton Manning left town, the Denver offense has been mediocre at best yet the defense remains the nucleus of the club. Whichever way you lean, I believe you’re going to sweat 60 minutes for this result. The total is hovering around 43 and I’m guessing it ends up close to that neighborhood.

Fearless Predictions

It’s been a long offseason but hopefully over the next 21 weeks, we can turn a profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Indianapolis-Los Angeles 41

Best Under: New York-Buffalo 40

Best Team Total: Over Detroit 23.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Atlanta-Chicago Under 5½
Baltimore-Cincinnati Over 33
Indianapolis-Los Angeles Over 33

Week 1 Betting Tidbits and Odds
By: Ashton Grewal
Covers.com

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9, 40)

The Jets won and covered both matchups against the Bills last season but Gang Green enters the 2017 campaign running operation tank job.

Josh McCown is the Week 1 starter under center for the Jets, which isn’t good for New York backers. McCown has made 31 starts at QB for three different teams since 2013. In those 31 starts, McCown’s teams went 10-21 against the spread.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened as low as Bills -6 back in the spring but the number moved up over the last month. Many shops now have the Jets getting between 9.5 and 10 points.

TRENDS:

* The Over is 8-0 in the Bills’ last eight home games and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.
* The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+7, 49)

The Falcons enter the season trying to shed the hangover synonymous with Super Bowl losers the next season. Runners’ up from the previous year’s championship game are 5-12 straight up and 2-15 against the spread in Week 1 of the follow-up season.

The Bears want to be a run-oriented offense and they did have the league’s second-leading rusher in Jordan Howard last season. As a team, however, Chicago finished middle of the back in rushing yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened this game with the road team giving seven points but there are still shops offering Falcons -6.5. If the public bets heavily on the Falcons, the line could move past the key number and up to 7.5.

TRENDS:

* The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
* The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven September games.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 42.5)

The Ravens are considered a model franchise in the league. They’ve won the Super Bowl twice since 2001 and enter the season as contender in the AFC. But bettors backing Baltimore have been burnt in recent years. The Ravens are just 32-44-4 against the spread since the 2012 season.

Marvin Lewis has been the head coach in Cincinnati for over a decade, but he enters the season on the last year of his contract and with no extension talks in the works. Looks like the Bengals brass want a “show me” season from Lewis this campaign.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this line at Bengals -1.5 but the spread crept up to the key number (-3) at just about all sportsbooks.

TRENDS

* The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two sides.
* The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)

Steelers All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell ended his holdout and will play against the Browns on Sunday. How much action he sees isn’t quite as clear. The Steelers are 28-18-2 ATS with Bell in the lineup.

Rookie DeShone Fizer won the QB job in Cleveland. He’ll become the 10th different starting quarterback for the Browns since the start of the 2013 season when he takes the field on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Browns as 9-point home dogs and some shops have dropped the spread as low as 8 while others have the Steelers giving 9.5 points.

TRENDS

* The Browns are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games, 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 1 and 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against AFC North opponents.
* The Under is 16-7 in the Steelers’ last 23 games overall and 5-0 in the Browns’ last five home games.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+2, 48 )

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has not done well against the Cardinals. The Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS against the Cards since 2012. Stafford owns a 57.9 combined QB rating in those four games vs. Arizona.

LINE HISTORY: Detroit opened as a 2.5-point favorite but the bettors like the road team in this game. Arizona is now giving 1.5 to 2 points at most books.

TRENDS

* The Over is 16-5 in the Cards’ last 21 road dates and 7-0 in their last 7 games overall.
* The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5, 39.5)

It’ll be an emotional game for the Texans who host the Jaguars just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey. There was some talk about relocating the game but the Texans were persistent about their desire to play in Houston for Week 1.

Blake Bortles had a terrible training camp and the Jacksonville coaching staff toyed with the idea of benching him for backup QB Chad Henne. Bortles held his job but it’s fair to say the Jags don’t have much confidence in him entering the season.

LINE HISTORY: This line has lived in what Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal call the Vegas Zone – between the key numbers of 3 and 7. It opened Texans -3.5 and now sits around -5.5.

TRENDS

* The Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC South opponents.
* The Over is 8-2 in the Jags’ last 10 games in September.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 50.5)

Wishing luck to the Raiders or Titans by saying “break a leg” is a poor choice of words. Oakland and Tennessee lost their starting quarterbacks to broken leg injuries late last season. Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota are fully healed and participated fully in their teams’ training camp.

The Raiders are one of the most popular bets to win the Super Bowl at many sportsbooks, but as Joe Fortenbaugh pointed out – Oakland outperformed its expected wins last season according to the Pythagorean model. The Raiders won 12 games a year ago but they played more like a 9 win team according to their point differential.

LINE HISTORY: Some books opened with the Raiders as small road favorites but most books now list the Titans giving 1.5 to 2.5 points. This game appears to be a pick’em from the book’s perspective.

TRENDS

* The Titans are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 home games.
* The Over is 8-3 in the Raiders’ last 11 games overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+1, 47.5)

Is Carson Wentz a franchise QB or did he get hot early and then the league’s defenses figured him out? The Eagles went 3-0 SU and ATS in Wentz’s first three career starts. Philly won just four of its remaining 13 games and covered the spread just five of them.

It was a weird offseason in Washington. The Redskins fired their GM and defensive coordinator, and they lost their offensive coordinator to the Rams. The front office can’t make its mind up on whether it likes the team’s starting quarterback or even on the name of said quarterback. Kirk? Kurt?

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as a short home fave but most shops now list the visiting Eagles as 1.5-point chalk.

TRENDS

* The Over is 11-1 in the Eagles’ last 12 road games.
* The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the Redskins.

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 41.5)

The Colts won’t have starting QB Andrew Luck available which means bettors are going to get acquainted with Scott Tolzien. The undrafted QB out of Wisconsin came into the league in 2011 with stops in San Francisco and Green Bay before getting picked up by Indy. He’s 1-2 SU and ATS in his three career starts and he didn’t look great in extended play in preseason.

The Rams are still without their best defensive player, Aaron Donald, who is holding out for a new contract.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts were 3-point road favorites all summer until it was announced Luck would not play. Oddsmakers adjusted by making the Rams 3.5-point favorites. That’s a 6.5-point swing on the spread for those of you counting at home. The total also moved down from 47.5 to 41.5.

TRENDS

* The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 1 and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* The Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in Week 1.
* The Under is 19-9 in the Rams’ last 28 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3, 51)

The Seahawks and Packers are projected to win their divisions and are listed as the top candidates to win the NFC this season according to oddsmakers. The Packers hope to avoid the slow start from a season ago when they covered the spread in just four of their first 10 games. Green Bay is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 home openers.

LINE HISTORY: There hasn’t been much movement on the line or total to this game. The Packers are near unanimous 3-point chalk in Vegas and offshore. The total can be found between 49.5 and 50.5 again with little movement.

TRENDS

* The Over is 7-0 in the Packers’ last seven games overall.
* Seattle is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, 48 )

Which Cam Newton will the Panthers get this season? The league MVP from 2015 or the guy with the bum shoulder who finished with a 75.8 QB rating. Carolina supports are hoping for the former.

Newton had surgery on his throwing shoulder in the offseason and did not throw at all during Carolina’s offseason OTAs and minicamps. He was a full participant in training camp and enters the season with a seemingly clean bill of health.

The Niners enter the season with their fourth different head coach in as many years. A lot of smart people in the league think Kyle Shanahan will be a great head coach. The question is whether or not he can turn the ship around in his first season at the helm.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened around Niners +4 at most shops in late spring and the number climbed as high as 6.5. It seems to be settling in that no-man’s land area of 5.5. The total is sitting at 48 across the board.

TRENDS

* The Niners are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 1 but 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* The over is 17-8 in Carolina’s last 25 road games.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)

Things are confusing with Zeke Elliott. He will play this weekend but, from the sounds of things, he will have to serve that six-game suspension at some point this season probably beginning next week. Oddsmakers see the 2016 rushing champion worth only a point or a half point to the Cowboys’ weekly game odds.

The G-Men are hoping wideout Odell Beckham Jr. will be available for Sunday. The Giants’ leading receiver the last three seasons hurt his ankle in Week 2 of the preseason and hasn’t played since. Beckham has only missed one game (Week 16 in 2015) since earning his spot in the starting lineup and the Giants lost and failed to cover in that contest.

LINE HISTORY: The spread of this game has been like a yo-yo with the Elliott’s availability coming and going. The Cowboys were as large as 6-point favorites at one point during the offseason and the line went down to as low as -3 at some books last week. Most shops have it at Cowboys -4 heading into the weekend.

TRENDS

* The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Cowboys.
* The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 1
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After getting slapped around by the public for most of the 2016 NFL season, Las Vegas sports books got off to a great 2017 start in Thursday night's kickoff game when the Kansas City Chiefs used a 21-0 fourth-quarter to win 42-27 at the New England Patriots.

"We did quite well last night, but most of it came from all the Patriots teasers and parlays," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "They (public) have to re-work all their weekend plays again because most were keyed with the Patriots (-9). Not only did we get the game to go our way, but we also almost swept the board in baseball."

However, Simbal noted that the public has been savvy with the Dodgers all season whether riding them during win streaks or betting against them now as they've lost 12 of 13 heading into Friday's game. Thursday night it was the Padres beating -305 favorite Clayton Kershaw, 9-1.

So much for Thursday's popular Corey Kluber (-375), Patriots (-400) and Kershaw three-team parlay. The irony for the books is that the big savior on the day, the Patriots, were the team that gave them the most damage last season as the public rode them going 16-3 ATS, including the Patriots last eight games that concluded with a 6-point overtime win in the Super Bowl.

Perhaps things cycle around in 2017 for the sports books and it's the books that return to their usual winnings ways. Usually there are three or four big losing Sunday's during the season, but last year it seemed more like 11 or 12 weeks of getting beat up by popular NFL teams.

In Week 1 action, the Average Joe's have already let it be known loud and clear who they likes.

"The game the public is all over more than any other in parlay action so is the Falcons (-6.5) at Chicago, Pittsburgh (-9.5) at Cleveland and the Bills (-9.) over the Jets, basically the three biggest favorites on the board," said Simbal. "They've also sided with the Bills/Jets game Under (40) with the narrative being 'we don't like the Jets offense'."

Yes, the people still do hate the Jets. Buffalo opened -6.

Despite the Falcons getting all the small money, the line has moved off of -7 down to -6.5. South Point book director Chris Andrews and Station Casinos' director Jason McCormick both said respected money has come in on Chicago prompting the move.

Many sports books posted the Week 1 lines when the schedule was first announced on April 20 and CG books were one of them, and with that, there have been a few games that have moved dramatically.

"We've had a few games flip from being an early underdog to now being the favorite," Simbal said. "The biggest liability we have on those games is the Eagles where we've taken large straight bet action on them, but also lots of smaller public parlay play as well. Tennessee is almost the same type of situation with risk against the Raiders and then we have the Cardinals now favored (-1.5) over Detroit. We opened Detroit -3 and let bettors take it all the way down to pick 'em and then we've just kind of rolled with the market after that."

The Eagles have lost five straight to the Redskins and have failed to cover the number in the past six meetings, but sharps jumped all over Philly +3 (-120) on the road and now they're -1.5. The Raiders, who won at Tennessee 17-10 last season, opened -1 road favorites and the Titans are now -2.5 (-115).

What happens in the first 11 games of the day will see all that combined liability flow into one big giant risk in the Sunday night game. It's the get-back game, or the double-down game. It's the last leg of many parlays cashing at big payout prices.

"There's still a long ways to go, but I think we're going to need Dallas pretty good on Sunday night," Simbal said. "We're seeing a lot of support on the Giants (+4) so far taking points and the money-line."

The Giants have won the past three meetings and covered the last five.

So here's a quick run down around town of what the public is playing and where the sharps have played their action through Friday.

Public: Falcons, Steelers, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, Panthers

Sharps: Jets, Bears, Titans, Eagles, 49ers

Now you've got some information and the question to ask is 'what side do I want to be on'? How about a little baccarat? Are you with the banker (house) or player?

Last year, the player was real good, but the tide always turns for the house in NFL action.

Whatever strategy, best wishes to all.