NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, August 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Friday's Preseason Tips
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Steelers at Giants (-3½, 37)
Pittsburgh
Head coach: Mike Tomlin (22-20 SU, 18-24 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Joshua Dobbs (Rookie), Bart Houston (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Gerry Dulac
Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell won't participate, but everyone else who is healthy will be out there for Tomlin's Steelers. That will include burner Martavis Bryant, whose regular-season future remains unclear but who is now available to practice and participate in exhibitions. Normal backup Landry Jones is sidelined, so this will be the Dobbs show. The rookie from Tennessee hopes to become this year's Dak Prescott, ironic since Big Ben weighing retirement. Cancer survivor James Conner, a local college star who has Pittsburgh excited, has missed practices all week, putting his participation in this one in doubt. Injuries have played a major role in throwing off the Steelers' preparation.
New York
Head coach: Ben McAdoo (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Josh Johnson, Geno Smith, Davis Webb (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Dan Duggan
Eli Manning and Odell Bechkam, Jr. have been excellent in practices, per reports, but they're unlikely to participate here if McAdoo follows the same script as last year. Johnson and Smith are vying for the backup role, making this a big game as far as that battle is concerned. Webb, a third-round pick who threw for over 4,200 yards at Cal last season, will finish the contest. McAdoo's Giants were outscored 48-10 in the first two preseason games last year.
Bucs at Bengals (-2, 37)
Tampa Bay
Head coach: Dirk Koetter (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Griffin, Sefo Liufau (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Jenna Laine
The Bucs made their debut on HBO's "Hard Knocks" this week and it appears story lines will center around the charismatic Winston, receivers Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson and rookie linebacker Riley Bullough, an undrafted free agent hoping who has opened eyes but looks like a longshot to make the final roster. RB Doug Martin will be suspended for the first three regular-season games, so Koetter will have to strike the right balance between getting him reps and making sure he has multiple options ready to try and replace his production. Tampa Bay lost its exhibition opener 17-9 on Aug. 11, 2016.
Cincinnati
Head coach: Marvin Lewis (29-28 SU, 30-26-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Andy Dalton, A.J. McCarron, Jeff Driskel
Beat Twitter Follow: Katherine Terrell
It hasn't been the ideal practice week for the Bengals since Lewis has been nursing a knee injury that saw him sent home on Tuesday and the team didn't do much the other day in order to be fresh for this one since injuries have been a major issue. In addition to all the attrition, a wild rumor that the team was sending McCarron to Denver made the rounds. A number of key players aren't expected to participate and Driskel will likely wind up taking the bulk of the snaps. Running back Joe Mixon should debut in the second half. Defensively, fourth-round draft pick Carl Lawson, and Auburn product who would've been drafted higher if not for baggage, has excelled throughout camp.
49ers at Chiefs (-3½, 37½)
San Francisco
Head coach: Kyle Shanahan (No preseason record)
Quarterback rotation: Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, CJ Beathard (Rookie), Nick Mullens (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Cam Inman
Shanahan spent nearly a decade as an offensive coordinator with stops in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and Atlanta, so even though he's finally secured a head seat, this shouldn't be too different a change. He's calling the plays, has a pair of veterans to get the ball rolling in the first half and will turn it over to Beathard to close it out unless Mullens gets in there late. Carlos Hyde, Tim Hightower and rookies Joe Williams and Matt Breida give the 49ers plenty of options to work with on the ground. Defensively, No. 3 pick Reuben Foster has already moved into the starting lineup at linebacker and has drawn rave reviews, but we'll see how long he plays since he injured an ankle in practice earlier this week. Robert Saleh, a linebackers coach for Jacksonville the past three seasons, is a first-time defensive coordinator.
Kansas City
Head coach: Andy Reid (34-38 SU, 34-34-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Alex Smith, Tyler Bray, Patrick Mahomes (Rookie), Joel Stave
Beat Twitter Follow: Terez Paylor
All of the quarterbacks are expected to get a quarter according to Reid, but Chiefs fans are salivating over the debut of top draft pick Mahomes, who is set to open the second half. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt has been a standout in camp, joining a crowded backfield that has moved on from Jamaal Charles with Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West and the newly acquired C.J. Spiller all vying to play a major role in the team's regular-season plans. Kansas City put together its lowest-scoring preseason since Reid took over last year after a perfect run in '15 where it averaged 26.5 points. To approach that type of production, the Chiefs will need explosive plays out of Tyreek Hill and a batch of unheralded receivers looking to impress. Per reports, Hill has picked up where he left off last season and has been tremendous in camp.
Friday's NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Primer
Covers.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 37)
Steelers
There will be a lot of missing firepower for the Steelers. Running back Le’Veon Bell is a camp holdout while QB Ben Roethlisberger and All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown are both ruled out for Friday’s game. Backup signal caller Landry Jones is hurt and won’t suit up either.
Rookie fourth round pick Joshua Dobbs will get the start at quarterback and he’ll be backed up by undrafted free agent Bart Houston.
Giants
Head coach Ben McAdoo, who looks like divorce according to the Dan Le Batard Show, hinted his plan for playing time should mirror how the Giants proceeded in Week 1 of the preseason last year. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham both didn’t play in that game.
Expect to see the quarterback snaps shared between Josh Jackson, ex-Jet Geno Smith and rookie Davis Webb. The job for Manning’s top backup is undecided and up for grabs.
Line moves
The G-Men opened as 2.5-point favorites but the line moved past the key number up to 3.5. The total also moved down 1.5 points from the opening number of 38.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 37)
Bucs
Tampa Bay will play all healthy players according to HC Dirk Koetter. He told reporters his starters will play the first quarter before giving way to the reserves. That means bettors will get to see how the Bucs offense will look with new additions WR Desean Jackson and rookie TE O.J. Howard.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Griffin and rookie Sefo Liufau complete the QB rotation after starter Jameis Winston.
Bengals
Head coach Marvin Lewis is back to work after having some work done on his knee. As for his playing time for his players in Friday’s preseason, Lewis isn’t giving reporters much to report on. He says some starters will play and some won’t.
Judging by his decisions in years' past, bettors should expect the starters to play one series before the backups take over the game.
Line moves
No movement on the spread but the total opened at 38 but has been bet down to 37.
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 37.5)
Niners
The 49ers QB rotation against the Chiefs will go Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and rookie third rounder C.J. Beathard will finish the game off. One thing to mention: beat reporter Grant Cohn was critical of San Fran's practices this week and new coach Kyle Shanahan’s lack of discipline.
Chiefs
The Chiefs will play their starters for the first quarter including quarterback Alex Smith. Fifth-year backup QB Tyler Bray will play the second quarter while rookie first round pick Patrick Mahomes II will get mop-up duty in the second half.
Line moves
KC opened as 4.5-point chalk but have been bet down half a point.
Friday's NFL Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
Tampa Bay vs. Cincinnati
Odds: Cincinnati (-2); Total 37
The Buccaneers and Bengals open up their preseason slate against one another tonight, as the Bengals look to bounce back from a sub-500 season in 2016, and the Bucs hope to continue building off their 9-7 SU year that saw them just miss out on a playoff berth. It was a big step up for a Tampa team that's now entering its third year with QB Jameis Winston under center and while he won't be seeing the field for long tonight, the Bucs will definitely be using this next month to figure out just how good their team can be when the games start for real.
The Bengals enter 2017 feeling like their failures in 2016 were nothing more than a blip on the radar after having been to the playoffs five straight years from 2011 to 2015. They've still yet to win a playoff game during Marvin Lewis' tenure – which is now entering Year 15 – and he and the rest of the Bengals know they'll ultimately be judged a little more harshly this year if success isn't found.
Another bad campaign could force the Bengals to “blow it up” a bit in terms of roster construction, but we've still got to get through four preseason games and an entire season before we get to that point. Using these games to see just how deep they are all over the football field will end up serving Cincinnati well down the road.
Tonight's the opener for both teams and that means we will see plenty of the backups and third and fourth-stringers out there. It's being reported that starting QB's Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston aren't likely to see more than a drive or two on the field, and the Bengals may be taking it even further with many more of their big names hanging out in street clothes on the sideline. If that's the case, even considering laying the two points with Cincinnati is tough, yet there has been about 70% of bettors going that way when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting numbers. You won't be able to count me in that group at all, as I'm looking at this total instead.
This total of 37 has already lost it's hook from opening at 37.5, as it's about a 60/40 split in terms of percentages in favor of the 'under.' Week 1 preseason games tend to garner more 'under' support in general with backups and guys who won't make final rosters garnering much of the playing time, but so far this week we've seen eight preseason games split right down the middle with a 4-4 O/U record. When you are potentially looking at 'overs' as I am here, it's extremely important to consider who those backup QB's are and in this game we've got two of them who definitely have something to prove and will be out to have a good showing.
For Tampa Bay, the guy that's pencilled in behind Winston this year is journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has been a starter in this league for years and while he's definitely never been close to being considered a MVP candidate, he's got plenty of skill and will be using the next few weeks as a showcase that he still belongs in this league and can still be considered a starter for a team that may end up dealing with injuries or such at the position.
On the other side of the field we've got Bengals backup A.J McCarron who found his name in rumors of possibly being traded to Denver. McCarron has spent a few years behind Dalton now and you know he'd love to have a strong preseason to use as a showcase, albeit for a little different reason than Fitzpatrick. McCarron has to be getting antsy to get his first crack at a starting gig in this league, and if his name is already coming up in trade rumors, you know there are other teams in the NFL who will be scouting his performance this month.
So with two backup QB's looking to shine, and key guys being out on both sides of the ball for both teams (along with some vanilla defensive packages), I believe we see these teams end up putting some points on the board tonight.