Friday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Preseason Recap: The home teams have won 15 of the first 17 preseason contests, including Chicago's comeback victory over Jacksonville on Thursday. Home clubs own a 12-4-1 ATS record, as the Bears failed to cover against the Jaguars last night, while the only road teams to win outright have been the Saints (at Rams) and Bills (at Panthers). The 'under' has cashed in 14 of 18 exhibition games (including the Hall of Fame game), including each of the last five contests since last Saturday.
Eagles at Patriots (-2½, 47)
2014 Preseason Records: NE (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), PHI (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Patriots (+3½) beat Eagles, 24-6 in 2013
Week 1 Review: New England was dominated by Washington, 23-6 as Tom Brady rested in the preseason opener for the Pats. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New England in exhibition openers. The Eagles fell to the Bears as one-point road favorites, 34-28, as Chicago scored the final 17 points of the contest.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Joe Nelson - Chip Kelly is now 2-3 S/U and ATS in the preseason and this will be a second straight road game which could take a toll at this stage in the season. New England is 6-3 S/U in the last nine home games in the preseason, averaging 27 points per game. Given Belichick’s respect for Kelly this is a game his team will take seriously and the Patriots should have opportunities early and late in this matchup.
Titans at Saints (-3, 43)
2014 Preseason Records: TEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), NO (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (+4½) beat Saints, 10-6 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Saints outlasted the Rams as short road underdogs, 26-24, as New Orleans was just one of two teams (Buffalo) to win on the highway last week. The Titans held off the Packers in a driving rainstorm in Nashville, 20-16 as -2½-point favorites.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Never like to lay this many points in the exhibition season, but New Orleans played to win in game 1 and I see that trend continuing in Week 2. Hard to take away much from the Tennessee–Green Bay game since weather played a role, but playing in the Superdome is always a factor that greatly favors the home team. Drew Brees did not play in Week 1 and the Saints still managed to complete 27 of their 40 passes. New Orleans wins this game by double digits.
Lions at Raiders (-2½, 39)
2014 Preseason Records: DET (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), OAK (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Raiders (+3) beat Lions, 31-20 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Raiders fell to the Vikings as three-point underdogs, 10-6, as Oakland scored a late touchdown and failed on a two-point conversion in the final minutes. The Lions rallied past the Browns, 13-12 to cash as 1½-point home underdogs, as the lone touchdown came in the contest came by Detroit with 1:05 remaining.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - The Oakland coaching staff is fighting for its job this season and was very upset with the team's poor performance last week at Minnesota, as evidenced by the team's several fights this week while scrimmaging with Dallas. Detroit is not very deep on defense, especially in the secondary, which should yield opportunities to new Oakland No. 1 QB Matt Schaub, impressive rookie Derek Carr, and young veteran Matt McGloiin. New Detroit coach Jim Caldwell is from the Tony Dungy "low key" school of thought in preseason, with Caldwell going only 4-8 vs. the spread while head coach at Indianapolis and only 1-5 vs. the spread as a visitor.
Chargers at Seahawks (-6, 38½)
2014 Preseason Records: SD (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SEA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Seahawks (-3) beat Chargers, 31-10 in 2013
Week 1 Review: Seattle's eight-game preseason winning streak came to an end in a Super Bowl rematch with Denver, as the Seahawks lost 21-16 as one-point road favorites. The Chargers cruised past the beat-up Cowboys, 27-7 as 3½-point home favorites, snapping a two-game home losing streak in the preseason.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: James Manos - It's obvious that Seahawks HC Pete Carroll takes the preseason seriously as he's gone 21-13 SU and 24-10 ATS in his NFL preseason coaching appearances, including going 8-0 SU combined in 2012 and 2013. The Seahawks did lose their preseason opener this season at Denver, but that was a huge revenge setup for the Broncos, and anyone who really watched the game could see that both coaches were making an effort to WIN. This will be Seattle's first home game since winning the Super Bowl and they should be welcomed by the loud and racous crowd that give the Seahawks the best homefield advantage in the NFL. The Chargers enter off demolishing Dallas and San Diego accomplished all it's goals in that game.
NFL Preseason Point Spreads and Picks
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com
Of the 16 games slated for the second full week of the preseason, one has a bigger total than all the rest.
And it’s not close.
The total for Friday’s Patriots-Eagles tilt (7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network) sits at 47, a healthy number for the regular season but positively super-sized for the exhibition slate. The OVER/UNDER is 4 points higher than any other game on this week’s board, and it is at least 6 points higher than 11 other preseason contests.
Nevertheless, the number makes sense.
For starters, these clubs met last August in Philadelphia and combined for 53 points, with the Patriots posting a 31-22 win. The total in that game was a mere 40, though.
Second, it’s reasonable to believe Patriots quarterback Tom Brady could get some reps in Friday’s game after sitting out the exhibition opener at Washington. With Brady seemingly unlikely to get much playing time in the last preseason game, if any, the Patriots have just two games for the first-team offense to tighten the screws. He was sharp in the 2013 preseason, completing 34-of-44 passes for 357 yards.
Third, the Eagles have had a knack for being in high-scoring exhibitions in Chip Kelly’s two-year tenure. In five preseason games under Kelly, the Eagles have been outscored 125-115. Philly is 4-1 O/U in those games.
Finally, the OVER has been a good play in the Patriots’ second preseason game in recent years, cashing 7-of-10 times since 2004, according to Covers.com data.
The Patriots are 3-point favorites in Friday night’s game in Foxborough. That’s a fairly normal preseason line.
The total? That’s a different story.
The Linemakers’ lean: While neither of these teams will be overly concerned about losing their first preseason game, we like the Eagles to bounce back in this spot. Mark Sanchez was solid in relief last week vs. the Bears, and Nick Foles will look to shake off his shaky, two-interception performance. Philly plus the points is the play.
As you watch for fireworks in New England, here’s a look at the other three contests to be played Friday night. Lines are the Las Vegas consensus as of Thursday afternoon, and preseason point spread data is from Covers.com. For updated point spreads and totals, visit our live odds page.
Tennessee at New Orleans (-3.5, 43)
Now this is interesting: Since 2012, the Saints are 9-1 against the spread in exhibition games. Moreover, they are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 straight-up in preseason play since Sean Payton returned last season. The Saints are also 4-1 to the OVER in exhibition play since 2013.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees (oblique) looks questionable for Friday. If he can’t go, the Saints will lean on Ryan Griffin and Luke McCown. Griffin was solid in the exhibition opener, completing 16-of-23 passes for 179 yards and one TD.
The Titans won and covered in their preseason opener vs. Green Bay, but the Packers rested quarterback Aaron Rodgers and tailback Eddie Lacy, and the game was played in rainy conditions. Facing the Saints indoors, even if Brees is just a spectator, could be a better litmus test for Ken Whisenhunt’s club.
Detroit at Oakland (-2.5, 39.5)
Keep an eye on how the Raiders’ offensive line fares against the Lions’ front four. Of the 13 penalties called against Oakland in the exhibition opener, four were false starts and three were offensive holding.
Also, handicappers will want to monitor the Lions’ offense when starting quarterback Matthew Stafford gives way to backups Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore. Orlovsky led the Lions to just three points in more than 2.5 quarters of play in the exhibition opener. Moore, meanwhile, was 11-of-13 for 121 yards and a touchdown pass to win out the game.
With a 10-6 loss to Minnesota in the first exhibition game, Oakland fell to 3-6 against the number in preseason play in Dennis Allen’s tenure.
San Diego at Seattle (-6, 38.5)
The Seahawks’ 21-16 loss at Denver on August 7 snapped Seattle’s 10-game preseason covering streak, a run dating back to 2011. In defeat, Seattle was penalized 14 times, but just once for defensive pass interference. Also, Seattle was not penalized for defensive holding or illegal contact.
San Diego emphasized the run in its preseason debut vs. Dallas, rushing 42 times and attempting just 16 passes. However, when the Chargers passed, they did quite well. San Diego quarterbacks were 14-of-16 for 243 yards against the Cowboys, with Philip Rivers going 4-of-4 for 61 yards in his lone series.
The Chargers are 3-2 against the number in exhibition games in Mike McCoy’s tenure as head coach.
The Linemakers’ lean: Our Kenny White made the total 36 for this game, so he offers a small lean to the UNDER. “When you’re looking at totals in preseason, if you have UNDER teams, go UNDER. If you have OVER teams -- like Chicago and Philly (last week) -- go OVER! They’re usually easy.”
Friday’s NFL Week 2 Preseason Betting Primer
Covers.com
The first game of the second week of NFL preseason is in the books, but there’s plenty of action remaining as the league reaches the halfway point of its exhibition schedule. Here’s a look at betting notes for Friday’s preseason action:
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-3, 46.5)
With Riley Cooper (foot) and Jeremy Maclin (hamsttring) both expected to be out Friday night, expect to see a cast of unknowns line up for the Eagles at wide receiver – a group that includes Josh Huff, Arrelious Benn and Jordan Matthews. Quarterback Nick Foles will be hoping for a better performance from his offensive line, which struggled in the opener against Chicago.
Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo sat out his third consecutive practice Thursday and is expected to miss Friday’s game as he continues his recovery from a season-ending pectoral muscle tear. Veteran quarterback Tom Brady will make his preseason debut against Philadelphia after sitting out the exhibition opener, though it isn’t immediately clear how long the 37-year-old will play.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3, 43)
The Titans want to see a lot more of starting quarterback Jake Locker, who has looked good in practice but was on the field for just 12 plays in the opener and wound up attempting only two passes. With three of Tennessee’s five wide receiver spots (Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Justin Hunter) spoken for, Friday will see Derek Hagan, Marc Mariani, Michael Preston and Brian Robiskie battle for the final slots.
The Saints will be without franchise quarterback Drew Brees, who continues to nurse an oblique injury and is aiming to return in time for New Orleans’ third preseason game. Brees isn’t the only key starter expected to be on the sidelines Friday night; he’ll be joined by cornerback Champ Bailey, receiver Kenny Stills and linebackers David Hawthorne and Victor Butler.
San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 38.5)
The Chargers are expected to roll with rookie offensive lineman Chris Watt on Friday against a defensively elite Seahawks team playing in front of a raucous home crowd. Fellow first-year player Jason Verrett, still recovering from surgery in March to repair a posterior labral tear, will not be in the lineup but the first-round defensive back is expected to see action before the regular-season opener.
Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is expected to give both candidates for the backup quarterback job – Tavaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor – an equal number of snaps against the Chargers. Seattle came into its preseason opener having outscored opponents 125-37 in the second half of its last eight exhibition games, but was outscored 14-6 in the second half against Denver last week.
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 39.5)
Don’t expect to see wide receiver Calvin Johnson much, if at all; head coach Jim Caldwell hasn’t said whether Megatron will suit up Friday, but he’s still recovering from off-season knee and finger surgeries and may want one more week to recover. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley has fallen down the depth chart due to uninspired play and poor work habits, and will give way to new starter C.J. Mosley this week.
Lost in an endless flurry of scuffles and squabbles during its joint practice with the Dallas Cowboys was the fact that the Oakland offense looked good in the days leading up to Friday’s encounter with Detroit. Former practice squad tight end Brian Leonhardt has been taking first-team reps with Mychal Rivera, and may be pressed into significant duty Friday due to a spate of injuries at the position