NFL Preseason Primer: Friday Game Betting Breakdown
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5, 43)
Forced to throw rookie QB EJ Manuel to the wolves in their preseason opener, the Bills could not have asked for a better result last Sunday than what they got in a 44-20 road win over the Colts. Thanks to Kevin Kolb slipping on a mat (can't make it up!) and injuring himself, Manuel played the entire first half vs. Indianapolis & had a stellar debut, completing 16 of 21 passes for 107 yards and one touchdown. Kolb is slated to start Friday, the Bills announced Thursday. Behind Manuel, another rookie, Jeff Tuel also played well completing 19 of 23 passes for 200+ yards and two scores. It remains to be seen how Buffalo can adjust to the short week (Sunday to Friday), but this is 1st year head coach Doug Marrone's home debut.
Minnesota is a clear candidate to regress in 2013 from where I sit. We saw little of Christian Ponder in the team's 27-13 loss last week to Houston as he was in for all of one series and threw an INT. The Vikings are 7-3 SU all-time vs. the Bills in the preseason.
Tampa Bay at New England (-3, 40.5)
These two teams experienced very different results in their respective preseason openers. The Bucs got blown out at home by the Super Bowl Champion Ravens 44-16 while the Patriots went into Philadelphia and rolled the Eagles 31-22. Despite missing his six top pass catchers from a year ago, Tom Brady did not miss a beat as the Patriots QB completed seven of eight passes for 65 yards and a TD. On the team's first drive, Brady handed the ball off six straight times and the offense went 80 yards for a touchdown. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 101 yards (on only 11 carries!) in his Patriots debut. Backup quarterback Ryan Mallett got injured, leaving Tim Tebow to stink up the joint down the stretch.
In Tampa Bay, all eyes are still on QB Josh Freeman, who has been very inconsistent in his three seasons in the NFL. He was in for two possessions in the opener. Rookie Mike Glennon threw for 169 yards, but the bulk of that came on two completions.
Oakland at New Orleans (-6.5, 42)
The first thing that jumps out at me here is that this a pretty high line for a preseason game. But we all know how effective the Saints typically are at home. Last week, they beat another bad AFC West team, the Chiefs, 17-13. In head coach Sean Payton's return to the sidelines, the game plan was pretty vanilla on offense for New Orleans. On defense, things did not look good early for a unit that allowed an NFL record 7,042 yards last season. But against the Kansas City backups, they allowed just 135 total yards. Rob Ryan is the new defensive coordinator here.
Oakland also won its preseason opener, at home, in low-scoring fashion. They beat Dallas 19-17. Three projected starters along the defensive line sat out the game for the Raiders and they failed to put any kind of pressure on the Cowboys quarterbacks. On offense, free agent acquisition Matt Flynn didn't do much other than fumble. Terelle Pryor saw significant time and while he looked good at certain points, he also threw an interception in the end zone.
San Francisco at Kansas City (-1.5, 40)
Spirits should be high here as Alex Smith meets his former team. Neither team looked very good last week. San Francisco turned the ball over four times in its 10-6 loss to Denver last Thursday. QB Colin Kaepernick did complete all four of his passes and was in for only one drive, which resulted in a field goal. From there, the Niners did almost nothing. New kicker Phil Dawson was two of three on attempts. Reports are that last year's 1st round draft choice WR AJ Jenkins is treading on thin ice and may be in danger of not making the team.
Smith completed seven of eight pass attempts in leading the starters to a touchdown on the opening drive, but from there Kansas City did little, if anything. The special teams was promising with two big returns, one on a kickoff, the other on a punt. Starting running back Jamal Charles is out after straining his foot in practice. He is expected to be fine.
49 ers at Chiefs: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv
The second night of Week 2 has another four games in which to uncover NFL picks for the sports handicapper. The first of these games will feature the Super Bowl runnerup San Francisco 49ers traveling to the Show-Me State to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
This being the preseason, the numbers offered by the sports handicapping experts are much different than what you will see during the regular season. For instance, according to Bovada, the Chiefs are a -1.5 home favorite with a total of 40.5. The game marks the home debut of former Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid, in his new role with Kansas City.
Last week, the 49ers got off to a slow start, with a 10-6 home loss to the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the Chiefs traveled to the Big Easy, where they lost to the Saints, 17-13.
Even before wading into the more intricate sports handicapping numbers associated with this contest, the one jarring mark that gets everyone’s attention is this: 3-18. That is Kansas City’s ATS record over the past five years, and one that was extended by a game last weekend when the +3 Chiefs failed to cover the pointspread.
Such a loss isn’t good for those expecting free football picks such as this to point in K.C.’s direction. That’s because over the past 20 years, the Chiefs have an equally miserable 6-16 ATS mark when coming off a preseason loss of six points or less.
Also, Reid’s last five years in Philadelphia saw his teams struggle in the first two weeks of the season, managing a weak 3-6-1 ATS record during the first half of the exhibition campaign.
Kansas City has been equally bad when playing teams from either conference, with the team holding a 3-14 ATS mark versus NFC team since 2008, including 1-8 at Arrowhead.
In contrast, the Niners have a 4-1 ATS record in road competition against AFC teams over the past three year, including a 6-2-1 mark overall.
Also, San Francisco is in good company with teams in its situation over the past decade. Since 2003, when an underdog has dropped its previous preseason game as a home favorite and has a losing record, that team has a collective record of 42-18 ATS in its next game.
As noted earlier, the preseason is a time where some teams take a more relaxed view of the games. However, even though the 49ers should be in that position, last week’s uninspired performance will likely get them moving a little quicker this week. Combine that with the Chiefs abysmal preseason record over the past two decades, and it makes the first of our free football picks an easy call, which is to
Play San Francisco +1.5
Friday Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Thursday's betting recap: All four home teams were victorious, but the Bears and Ravens were unable to cash as home favorites. The 'over' finished 2-2 last night, while the highest total (44) easily went 'under' in the Eagles/Panthers contest (14-9). Cleveland is the only team that has covered both of its preseason games with a 24-6 home triumph over Detroit as 1 ½-point favorites.
Vikings at Bills
Week 1 Results:
Vikings lose to Texans, 27-13 as one-point home favorites
Bills beat Colts, 44-20 as 4 ½-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Minnesota: C. Ponder, M. Cassell, M. Bethel-Thompson
Buffalo: K. Kolb, E.J. Manuel, J. Tuel
Preseason Coaching Records:
Leslie Frazier (MIN): 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS on road
Doug Marrone (BUF): 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS
First home preseason game
Buccaneers at Patriots
Week 1 Results:
Buccaneers lost to Ravens, 44-16 as three-point home favorites
Patriots beat Eagles, 31-22 as 3 ½-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Tampa Bay: J. Freeman, M. Glennon, A. Weber
New England: T. Brady, R. Mallett, T. Tebow
Preseason Coaching Records:
Greg Schiano (TB): 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS
1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS on road
Bill Belichick (NE): 9-8 SU, 7-9-1 ATS (Last 5 seasons)
4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS at home
Raiders at Saints
Week 1 Results:
Raiders beat Cowboys, 19-17 as 1 ½-point home underdogs
Saints beat Chiefs, 17-13 as three-point home favorites
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Oakland: M. Flynn, T. Pryor, T. Wilson, M.McGloin
New Orleans: D. Brees, L. McCown, R. Griffin
Preseason Coaching Records:
Dennis Allen (OAK): 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
0-2 SU, 1-1 on road
Sean Payton (NOR): 10-7 SU, 11-6 ATS (Last 5 seasons)
5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS at home
49ers at Chiefs
Week 1 Results:
49ers lost to Broncos, 10-6 as three-point home favorites
Chiefs lost to Saints, 17-13 as three-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
San Francisco: C. Kaepernick, C. McCoy, S. Tolzien
Kansas City: A. Smith, C. Daniel, R. Stanzi
Preseason Coaching Records:
Jim Harbaugh (SF): 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS
2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS on road
Andy Reid (KC): 10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS (Last 5 seasons)
Chiefs: 2-11 SU, 1-10-2 (Last 13 preseason games)