NFL Preseason Primer: Friday Game Betting Breakdown
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
Here's a quick look at what to expect in Friday's two NFL preseason tilts.
Seattle at Green Bay (+2, 43)
This is a rematch from the infamous “Fail Mary” game from last year’s regular season that in many ways set the tone for both teams’ regular seasons. For a second straight year, the Seahawks have looked great in the preseason. Last year’s 4-0 campaign introduced us all to the exploits of future MVP candidate (yes, you read that right) QB Russell Wilson, and so far they are 2-0 in 2013, making it six consecutive double digit wins in the preseason under head coach Pete Carroll. That’s a big reason why they are favored here on the road. After humiliating Denver last week, 40-10, the Seahawks have now outscored their two preseason opponents this year 71-20.
Green Bay is 1-1 in the preseason, having responded from a 17-0 shutout loss to Arizona in the opening game with a 19-7 win last week at St. Louis. Reportedly, Mike McCarthy was unhappy with the team’s practice on Wednesday. The coaching staff has not made a decision on how much time the starters will play Friday, but it figures to be longer than the first two games combined. QB Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a TD pass this preseason, albeit he’s only been on the field for four drives total. Both Packers’ starting wide receivers – Randall Cobb & Jordy Nelson - are not 100%.
Chicago at Oakland (+3.5, 38)
Both road teams are favored Friday night. The Bears and Raiders each come into this game at 1-1 SU. The Bears are 0-2 ATS, though the loss of Coach Lovie Smith has not affected the defense’s propensity to force turnovers. In two games, Chicago has an incredible eight takeaways. The problem though is new head coach Marc Trestman was brought in to improve QB Jay Cutler, who has not looked good so far. Last week saw Cutler play a full quarter, and while he completed 4 of 5 passes, the only receiver he targeted was Brandon Marshall. Though they put up 33 points in the win over San Diego, the offense had only 13 first downs and 185 total yards. Thanks to special teams and defense, they routinely benefited from good field position.
Oakland lost last week in New Orleans, 28-20 as six-point dogs. After one quarter, they trailed 17-0. The offensive line stunk, allowing QB Matt Flynn to be sacked five times. The defense was no better, allowing Saints QB Drew Brees to throw for 220 yards and direct five scoring drives. Making matters worse, the team suffered eight injuries according to Head Coach Dennis Allen.
Bears at Raiders: Preview & Pick
By Bovada.lv
The Oakland Raiders finish out the home portion of the exhibition season in an inter-conference matchup against the Chicago Bears.
This game will again have the Raiders as a home dog, with Bovada. listing them as a -3.5 favorite, and offering a total of 38. In Oakland’s previous home game, they defeated the Dallas Cowboys outright, 19-17 as +2 underdogs.
These two teams last met in the preseason in Week 2, where the visiting Raiders were +2.5 dogs, and won outright, 32-17.
Last week, the Bears defeated the San Diego Chargers in a high-scoring affair, 33-28, but failed to cover the -5.5 betting line. Oakland was also involved in an offense-heavy contest, losing to the New Orleans Saints on the road, 28-20.
Chicago has yet to make sports handicappers happy this year, with an 0-2 ATS mark, but over the past five years, when an NFC team saddled with that record travels for its Week 3 clash, it has beaten the pointspread in five of seven games.
Also, the second half of the exhibition campaign is where the Bears have shined since 2008. In the last two weeks of the preseason during that time period, Chicago has a 7-3 ATS record, including 5-1 away from Soldier Field.
That success stands in contrast to the misery of the Raiders during the closing weeks of these warmup games. Overall, the team has just a 4-7 ATS record since 2008 in front of its rabid fans when the games don’t count. The numbers get much worse during the latter half of a preseason, where they are 1-9 ATS overall and 1-5 at home.
Tonight’s total also helps tilt the scales toward the Bears by the fact that in its last nine preseason games when the total has been under 40, the Bears have a 6-3 ATS mark. Conversely, Oakland over the past two seasons has managed a poor 2-5 ATS record when the number falls below 40 on sports handicapping boards.
A road team giving points during the preseason might be seen as violating some sort of sports handicapping edict. However, in this case, the past numbers point in the direction of the Bears. After scoring 17 in its first game, Chicago pushed across 34 points, which is what Bears management was looking for when they hired Marc Trestman as head coach in the offseason. While they may not match that output tonight, they should be able to beat the pointspread, so the advice on this free football pick is to
Play Chicago -3.5
Friday's Betting Notes
VegasInsider.com
Preseason Trends
Home teams went 13-3 in Week 2
Favorites went 13-3 straight up and 11-5 against the spread in Week 2
The Ravens and Bears were the only two teams that failed to cover the point-spread in their victories
After watching the ‘over’ go 12-5 in the first 17 preseason games, the ‘under’ went 8-7-1 in Week 2
Prior to last night, 10 teams were unbeaten (2-0) and nine are winless (0-2) in the preseason
Seattle and Baltimore have both scored 71 points in their first two games, while Jacksonville (16) and Green Bay (19) have struggled offensively
Arizona has been the best defensive team so far, allowing seven points in two games. Tampa Bay (69), Jacksonville (64) and San Diego (64) have all struggled on the defensive side.
Rookie coaches have gone 8-6 in the preseason
Thursday’s action watched both games go ‘over’ the total. The home and road teams went 1-1 and the favorites and underdogs split as well both SU and ATS.
Seattle at Green Bay
Preseason Notes
Seattle
Week 1 – Seattle 31 at San Diego 10
The Seahawks led 7-3 at halftime before outscoring the Chargers 24-7 in the second-half. Backup QBs Tarvaris Jackson and Brady Quinn passed for 187 yards and three touchdowns.
Week 2 – Seattle 40 vs. Denver 10 (Over 42)
The Seahawks led 33- 7 at halftime with the help of two touchdowns from their defense and special teams. QB Russell Wilson connected on 67 percent (8-of-12) of his passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns.
Green Bay
Week 1 - Green Bay 0 vs. Arizona 17
The Packers starting offensive unit had an early opportunity to score in the first quarter but turned the ball over on downs inside the Cardinals five-yard-line. Arizona led 14-0 at the break.
Week 2 – Green Bay 19 at St. Louis 7
The Packers led 9-0 at halftime and built a 19-0 lead in the fourth quarter before the Rams scored a late touchdown. QB Aaron Rodgers was 10-of-12 for 134 yards.
QB Rotations
Seattle – Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Brady Quinn
Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, Vince Young, B.J. Coleman (Rookie – Chattanooga)
Coaching Notes (Overall Records)
Pete Carroll - 9-5
Carroll started 1-3 both SU and ATS in preseason games but has gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games.
Mike McCarthy - 15-15
Total players noticed that McCarthy watched the ‘over’ go 20-8 (71%) in his first seven preseason slates but the ‘under’ is 2-0 this August and currently on a 5-1 (86%) run.
Dress Rehearsal - Week 3 Records (2010-2012)
Seattle - (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, Over 2-1)
2012 - Seattle 44 at Kansas City 14 (Over 40)
2011 – Seattle 20 at Denver 23 (Over 36.5)
2010 – Seattle 13 at Minnesota 24 (Under 39)
Green Bay (3-0, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 Over)
2012 - Green Bay 27 at Cincinnati 13 (Under 43)
2011 – Green Bay 24 at Indianapolis 21 (Over 40)
2010 – Green Bay 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 (Over 44.5)
Chicago at Oakland
Chicago
Week 1 – Chicago 17 Carolina 24
The Bears and Panthers both scored defensive touchdowns via interceptions. Chicago passed for 277 yards but was intercepted twice.
Week 2 – Chicago 33 vs. San Diego 28
The Chargers trailed the Bears 20-7 at halftime. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst helped the Bolts outscore Chicago 21-13 with two touchdown passes.
Oakland
Week 1 – Oakland 19 vs. Dallas 17 (Over 35.5)
The Raiders trailed 10-6 after two quarters but rallied in the second-half with 13 points, including a game-winning field goal.
Week 2 – Oakland 20 at New Orleans 28 (Over 42.5)
The Raiders trailed 23-7 at halftime before outscoring the Saints 13-5 in the final two quarters. Drew Brees diced up Oakland for 202 yards on 14-of-18 attempts.
QB Rotations
Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Trent Edwards, Jordan Palmer
Starters are expected to play at least the first-half for the Bears.
Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Matt McGloin (Rookie – Penn State), Tyler Wilson (Rookie, Arkansas)
Starters are expected to play the first-half and possibly into the second-half. The Raiders could use all four quarterbacks against the Bears.
Coaching Notes (Overall Records)
Marc Trestman 1-1 (0-2 ATS)
The seven rookie coaches in the NFL have gone 8-6 in the preseason, which includes Trestman’s ledger. The ‘over’ has cashed in both of his first two games.
Dennis Allen 2-4
Allen is 0-3 in his first three preseason games on the road.
Dress Rehearsal - Week 3 Records (2010-2012)
Chicago - (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, Under 3-0)
2012 – Chicago 20 at N.Y. Giants 17 (Under 41)
2011 – Chicago 13 at Tennessee 14 (Under 35.5)
2010 – Chicago 9 vs. Arizona 14 (Under 38)
Oakland - (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, Over 3-0)
2012 - Oakland 31 vs. Detroit 20 (Over 42)
2011 – Oakland 20 vs. New Orleans 40 (Over 38)
2010 – Oakland 28 vs. San Francisco 24 (Over 37.5)
Friday's NFL Action
By Carbon Sports
Aside from scoping the backup units of teams for potential fantasy football steals, the NFL preseason betting phase of our lives gives us a chance to get some action in and build up our bankrolls while figuring out which teams are in sync and which teams aren't. Below are the preseason matchups for Friday night, and while home teams enjoy a natural edge in these types of contests, they're not the solid take you think they might be. Don't bet blindly this weekend as teams display their first teams well in to the third quarter.
GREEN BAY PACKERS +2.5 over Seattle Seahawks
Let's just call this a revenge game because the Packers-Seahawks have a rivalry after Gategate (which is what I call it) last year. The Packers will trot out Aaron Rodgers and the depleted Seattle defense, which is still dealing with injuries, will have their hands full. The line here is corrected for the absence of Eddie Lacy, who has an injury which will keep him out for a few weeks, but the Packers were fine without Lacy before and will remind Seattle that they're the team to beat in the NFC.
There's a lot of reasons to be excited about Seattle, and bet on them after a 40-10 throwdown against Denver last weekend in NFL preseason betting, but I don't expect them to have the leeway they enjoyed against a Denver defense that is shorthanded on all fronts. Green Bay will get a modicum of revenge in this game in front of their hometown faithful.
Chicago Bears -3.5 over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Matt Flynn looks solid as the starting option in Oakland, but this team still looks terrible. As I wrote before, Week 3 of NFL preseason betting is when you see teams unleash their starting offences in to the second half so Flynn will have more time to impress agasint the Bears. The problem here is that Chicago is an under-the-radar contender and Oakland is - at best - a .500 team.
Jay Cutler looked sharp in completing 4-of-5 passes for 38 yards on a the lone drive he was out there. One of those catches went for a touchdowns while the errant pass was actually picked off. The Bears had massive problems with offensive line help last year, and had some defensive injuries that slowed them down. When healthy, like they are in this game, they're as good as any other team and Marc Trestman will want a strong performance out of his team in the last, meaningful game of the preseason for his starters. This includes his starting defensive unit which flustered Phillip Rivers last week.
That's why the Bears are the pick here despite playing on the road. You can fall asleep on Chicago this year. I'm not, especially in NFL preseason betting.