NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, August 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Friday's NFL Week 3 Preseason Primer
Covers.com
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+2.5, 43.5)
About the Patriots
Tom Brady started last week against the Texans before getting the hook after the offense’s first two drives. The 40-year-old quarterback is looking forward to see more snaps Friday against the Lions.
“For me, it is just feeling the rhythm of the game, and it is different than practice,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “The rhythm of practice is very different, and the only way to simulate the game is to play. I can draw on a lot of experience, but it is nice to get out there and actually do it.”
Head coach Bill Belichick is doing his shtick, mumbling but not answering any questions - particularly those about how much time Brady and the first team offense will see on Friday. Using Week 3 of the preseason in 2015 is our best clue for what we’ll see. Brady played in the first half in that game.
In the Brady era, the Patriots are 8-6-1 against the spread in Week 3 of the preseason.
About the Lions
The Lions are 2-0 straight up and against the spread this preseason but those two games came against the sad-sack New York Jets and the Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts.
Will Detroit’s defense be able to replicate its preseason success in the first two weeks against the Patriots on Friday? We’re going to guess no seeing how Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo are far superior to Christian Hackenberg and Scott Tolzien.
The Lions’ starters are expected to play the entire first half before the backups take the field for the last 30 minutes of action. Quarterback Jake Rudock will lead the Lions offense in the second half. The second year pro out of Michigan has passed for 226 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while completing 60 percent of his pass attempts.
Detroit is 10-4 against the spread in preseason games since Jim Caldwell took over as the team’s head coach.
Line moves
The Lions opened as 1-point home pups but the line has been bet up to +2.5. The total has also dropped two full points after opening at 45.5.
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 42.5)
About the Chiefs
The peeps in KC are falling in love with their new quarterback Patrick Mahomes II. The rookie out of Texas Tech has completed 17 of his 23 pass attempts with three TD passes and no INTs in his two preseason outings.
Incumbent starter Alex Smith hasn’t been a slouch this preseason either. The veteran signal-caller is 12 for 15 on his pass attempts for 131 yards and one touchdown in limited action this month. Smith and the rest of the Kansas City starters will play the first three quarters on Friday against the Seahawks.
The Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread in Week 3 of the preseason under head coach Andy Reid.
About the Seahawks
Head coach Pete Carroll hasn’t told reporters exactly how much time his starters will play on Friday, but based on last year bettors can expect quarterback Russell Wilson and the rest of the first teams to play until about halfway through the third quarter.
The Seahawks’ offensive line is the talking point this week in Seattle. The team lost starting left tackle George Fant for the season with an ACL injury and the coaching staff is scrambling to find a replacement for him. Offensive line has been the Achilles’ heel of this Seattle club over the last few seasons.
This game will be nationally televised on CBS. Former Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo was going to make his debut as a color commentator but he was a late scratch after his wife gave birth to their third son earlier this week.
Line moves
No movement on the spread but the total has been moved up 1.5 points and is sitting at 43.
Friday's NFL Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
Odds: New England (-3.5) vs. Detroit (+3.5); Total 43.5
The New England Patriots are the favorites in the sportsbooks to win it all again in 2017-18, which makes you wonder about why they are continually getting pounded by bettors in preseason action. If these games mean next to nothing to most NFL teams, they mean absolutely nothing to the Patriots, other than assessing the depth of their team and getting some early reps in.
New England is 0-2 SU and ATS this preseason already (2-0 O/U) as their lack of intensity on defense – they've allowed 31 and 27 points – could end up actually being the blueprint for other teams, and even media writers to portray just how smart the entire Patriots organization is in preserving health now to peak in January. It's a shame that most bettors either don't see it this way or frankly don't care.
Week 3 is known as the dress rehearsal week, but that doesn't mean all the teams projected to be better in the regular season come out and dominate. The fact that you see more than 90% of the ML and ATS bets on New England for this game when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers is a little crazy, especially when money is still rolling in after the line has moved 3.5 to 4 points depending on where you look. For a point spread to move that significantly there has got to be a plethora of tickets written up on a certain side, but also plenty of big bets and “sharp” money going the same way.
Unquestionably the bulk of the “sharp” money likely got in at New England “pick'em” or -1 to -1.5, and much of the action after that has likely been steam chasers or bettors looking to get on the Pats before it got to -3. Well now it's above that three-point threshold, and if you are still considering a Pats bet at this point, I'd be quick to abandon those plans.
On one hand I get the initial move a point or two for the Pats during dress rehearsal week, because given the projections for both teams and their respective win totals, in a preseason game when it's starters vs starters for the bulk of it, the Pats are always going to be the side that gets the most action.
However, whether it's a strategic plan or they really are having some significant tackling issues, the Pats defense has not looked like they've wanted to tackle anyone all summer. New England gave up a 79-yard TD run and a 97-yard TD pass to Jacksonville in Week 1, and then gave up 27 points to Houston the next week, despite out-gaining Houston on the ground and through the air, and nearly having twice as many 1st downs (24 to 13).
I would definitely not put it past Belichick and company to tell their defensive guys to play hard but preserve their bodies for when the games count, because while everyone in the media talks about offensive guys getting hurt this time of year, a significant injury on defense can be just as troublesome. The Pats may be well-ahead of the the curve on that front too, but the 27+ points they've allowed in both preseason games so far, doesn't exactly make me want to lay these points with them tonight.
With the line out of whack now and seemingly everyone piled up on New England tonight, I see this game likely ending as one of those NFL games where the importance of getting on the number early on pays off huge. It's hard for me to not like New England to win SU here, but their lack of intensity on defense suggests that they won't mind Detroit hanging around the entire way.
Heck, I'm sure Belichick views a close game during the dress rehearsal as a great opportunity for Brady and the starters to work on situational football in live action and I'm sure that a similar situation will pop up for New England down the road and they'll dominate it simply because of their preparation.
But the Lions have been good this preseason already (2-0 SU and ATS, 0-2 O/U), and with the value on this line firmly on their side now at +3.5, and seemingly nobody willing to back them, I've got plenty of faith that if they are to lose SU, it will be within a FG. Like I said, all the “sharp” early money on New England at pick'em and -1 gets there, while all the followers at -3 or higher are left with a push or worse. Give me Detroit with the hook.
Best Bet: Detroit +3.5