Friday's NFL Week 1 Preseason Betting Primer
By Covers.com
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 37)
The Dolphins are expected to be without several key offensive contributors Friday night, including running back Knowshon Moreno (knee), wide receiver Mike Wallace (hamstring) and tight end Charles Clay (knee). The quarterbacking play behind starter Ryan Tannehill will likely fall to Seth Lobato and Brock Jensen, a pair of undrafted free agents.
Falcons star receiver Julio Jones will likely sit out the game as he makes his recovery from foot surgery, though he did practice on a limited basis Wednesday and is hopeful of seeing action at some point during the exhibition season. Head coach Mike Smith is traditionally stingy when it comes to first-team offense in the preseason opener, which means Matt Ryan and Co., will likely only play the game's opening series.
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (+1.5, 37)
The Bills may be dealing with a handful of major injuries - including standout linebacker Kiko Alonso's season-ending ACL tear early in training camp - but the kicking game is strong, as Dan Carpenter went a perfect 8-for-8 Wednesday. Buffalo will be looking for a better performance from its first-team offense than it had in its preseason opener, when it managed just 27 yards on 11 plays against the Giants.
Quarterback Cam Newton has been careful with his surgically repaired left ankle, participating in only light passing drills Thursday and likely sitting out Friday's contest as a precaution. Head coach Ron Rivera says Newton won't see more than two series if he does take the field, and likely won't be allowed to scramble or use the read-option during the game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 37)
The Buccaneers have anointed offseason acquisition Josh McCown as the Week 1 starter, which means he should see limited action Friday while starter-turned-backup Mike Glennon sees as much or more playing time as the game goes on. Rookie wide receiver Mike Evans is "progressing" from a hamstring injury but may be limited Friday or held out altogether.
The Jaguars will be without seven players for the preseason opener, including expected No. 1 running back Toby Gerhart (hip flexor), No. 1 wide receiver Cecil Shorts (hamstring) and tight ends Clay Harbor (calf) and Brandon Barden (illness). The Jaguars will go with a three-pronged rush attack in Gerhart's absence, with Jordan Todman starting and Storm Johnson and Denar Robinson spelling him.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 42)
With two of the Eagles' veteran wide receivers - Riley Cooper (ankle) and Jeremy Maclin (legs) - likely to sit out Friday's exhibition opener, unproven pass-catchers like Jordan Matthews, Josh Huff and Brad Smith will jockey for playing time. Head coach Chip Kelly doesn't see his starters playing more than two series, with 10-15 plays the target amount before the backups take over.
The Bears suspended tight end Martellus Bennett for conduct detrimental to the team earlier in the week, but head coach Marc Trestman had a "very positive" conversation with Bennett and won't rule out his participation in the preseason opener. At quarterback, Jimmy Clausen and Jordan Palmer will both see plenty of action Friday as they duel for the No. 2 spot behind Jay Cutler.
New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (-3, 38)
Veteran receivers Marques Colston and Kenny Stills will likely see a lighter load Friday as they take a back seat to electrifying rookie Brandin Cooks, who has impressed the New Orleans coaching staff in training camp and will be a popular target against St. Louis. The Saints were an impressive 3-1 in preseason action last year, then rode that momentum to a season-opening five-game winning streak.
The Rams will be without left tackle Chris Long, who spent the offseason recovering from ACL surgery last January and still isn't quite ready for game action. St. Louis also isn't expecting to play quarterback Sam Bradford, who took the first-team reps throughout the week but will be treated with caution by head coach Jeff Fisher after undergoing major knee surgery last season.
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 38)
Head coach Dennis Allen told reporters Thursday that "everyone healthy" will see action against the Vikings, though it's likely quarterback Matt Schaub and the rest of the first-team offense will play just two series. Oakland is relatively healthy going into the game; left guard Lamar Mady missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury, those who participated came away unscathed.
Those hoping to catch a glimpse of Adrian Peterson in the preseason will be disappointed; the All-Pro running back won't dress for Friday's opener and might possibly sit out the entire exhibition campaign to preserve himself for the rigors of the regular season. Matt Cassel will likely get the start at quarterback Friday, though Teddy Bridgewater will see time as the two remain locked in a battle for the Week 1 starting job.
NFL Preseason Point Spreads and Picks
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com
Of the six NFL exhibition games slated for Friday night, the Raiders-Vikings tilt in Minneapolis (7:30 p.m. ET) offers more in the way of teaching points than any other.
The quarterback play for both clubs holds considerable intrigue. The Raiders are counting on ex-Texan Matt Schaub to shake off a mistake-filled 2013 campaign, while rookie Teddy Bridgewater looks to make a charge for the Vikings’ starting job.
We have some idea on how the Vikings will divide QB reps, with Bridgewater potentially playing half the game — including some with the first-team offense — after Matt Cassel gets the start. This leaves former Vikings starter Christian Ponder likely to get late-game work.
We have far less clarity about Oakland’s passing plans, with coach Dennis Allen declining to tip his hand. Based on the depth chart, Schaub figures to give way first to rookie Derek Carr, who will then be relieved by Matt McGloin. For Schaub, a performance free of turnovers would be an ideal start with his new club.
Likewise, Carr – the Raiders’ second-round pick – needs to build trust with his new club. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the club has worked to improve Carr’s footwork. On Friday, he gets a chance to show whether he can apply teaching points in actual game action.
The preseason opener marks the NFL head-coaching debut of the Vikings’ Mike Zimmer. The Vikings also have a new (temporary) home, the outdoor TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
The Vikings are 3-point favorites, with the total set at 37.5. For those taking a longer view, the game might be one to sit and watch, what with both clubs still works-in-progress.
Here’s a short analysis of the other games to be played Friday night, with a pair of picks from The Linemakers' crew in Las Vegas. Lines are from Vegas books as of Thursday afternoon. For updated point spreads and totals, check our live odds board.
Miami at Atlanta (-3, 37.5)
The Falcons are 1-5 straight-up in preseason openers in Mike Smith’s tenure. On the other hand, the Dolphins are 1-8 against the number in exhibition games since Joe Philbin became head coach.
Note that Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has played at least three series in preseason openers in each of the last three seasons.
Buffalo (-1.5. 37) at Carolina
The Bills already have a game under their belt, having played in Sunday’s Hall of Fame exhibition. Does this give them an edge over Carolina, which is making its preseason debut? That’s for the handicapper to decide. The win-loss data suggests it’s a coin flip. Since 2000, teams who appeared in the Hall of Fame game are 13-13 in the second preseason game.
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (ankle) is doubtful as of Thursday; he’ll be limited even if he plays.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (-1, 37)
The Jaguars are thin at the skill positions. Tailback Toby Gerhart will miss the preseason opener, as will wide receivers Cecil Shorts III, Allen Robinson and Ace Sanders, among others. Chad Henne will start at quarterback for Jacksonville.
Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith has indicated his first-teamers will play a quarter or so.
Philadelphia at Chicago (-1.5. 40.5)
The Bears and Eagles were each 3-1 to the OVER in the 2013 preseason, with Philadelphia third in yards gained in the exhibition slate.
Both clubs are working in new backup quarterbacks this preseason, with the Philadelphia adding Mark Sanchez to the mix and Chicago bringing in Jimmy Clausen and David Fales to compete with Jordan Palmer.
The Linemakers’ lean: The total on this game is the highest on this week’s preseason board, but it’s not quite high enough. With both coaches looking to go up-tempo, we may see 50-plus points scored. OVER 40.5 is the play.
New Orleans at St. Louis (-3, 38)
The Saints have won five of seven exhibition debuts under Sean Payton, but quarterback Drew Brees (oblique) is very questionable for Friday’s game. The OVER has cashed in six of eight Rams preseason games in Jeff Fisher’s time as head coach.
The Linemakers’ lean: Luke McCown and Ryan Griffin are battling for the Saints’ No. 2 QB spot, and we give that duo the edge over the Shaun Hill/Austin Davis/Garrett Gilbert combo that will take over for the Rams once Sam Bradford is taken out. More importantly, anytime we can get the better team plus points, we’re interested. We’ll wait to see if this line moves up should Drew Brees not play, but we’ll have a Saints ticket in our pocket Friday night.
Friday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Dolphins at Falcons (-3, 37)
2013 Preseason Records: MIA (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS), ATL (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Falcons (-3) beat Dolphins, 23-6 in 2012
QB Rotations:
MIA - R. Tannehill, M. Moore, P. Devlin, B. Jensen*
ATL - M. Ryan, T.J. Yates, S. Renfree, J. Mathews*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - The Dolphins are 2-9 in the preseason under Joe Philbin, which includes a 1-4 SU/ATS record on the road. The Falcons had major struggles with injuries last season, while going winless in the exhibition campaign in 2013. The last time these teams met at the Georgia Dome in 2011, the Falcons blew a 17-0 lead in a 28-23 defeat. This time around, Atlanta should finish the job and grab the win.
Bills (-1½, 37) at Panthers
2013 Preseason Records: BUF (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), CAR (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Panthers (-3) beat Bills, 14-13 in 2006
QB Rotations:
BUF - E.J. Manuel, J. Tuel, D. Dixon, T. Lewis
CAR - D. Anderson, M. Blanchard, J. Webb
Expert Handicapper Analysis: John Fisher - Bills played in the Hall of Fame game last week and have taken far more reps that the Panthers. Yesterday, all home teams won. It won't happen here as I feel the extra reps and work will help Buffalo be more consistent. Look for Bills to get a couple of turnovers as they played really well against the Giants..
Buccaneers at Jaguars (-1, 37)
2013 Preseason Records: TB (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), JAX (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Jaguars (-3) beat Buccaneers, 19-13 in 2010
QB Rotations:
TB - M. Glennon, M. Kafka, J. McCown, A. Tanney
JAX - C. Henne, B. Bortles*, R. Stanzi, S. Morris*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Dave Cokin - The WR injuries for Jacksonville are clearly a concern, and so is the fact that it looks to me like the second and third unit personnel edges are with Tampa Bay. But for me, incentive is an overriding factor and I'm getting a read that the Jaguars wouldn't mind getting even a win that doesn't count under their belts. Therefore, I'm willing to give the Jaguars a bet tonight
Saints at Rams (-3, 38)
2013 Preseason Records: NO (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS), STL (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: First ever meeting
QB Rotations:
NO - R. Griffin, L. McCown, L. Kilgore*
STL - S. Bradford, S. Hill, G. Gilbert, A. Davis
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - Saints are 5-1 SU/ATS Game One preseason since 2008, including 3-0 SU/ATS last three years, and Sean Payton is 11-3 ATS away preseason, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points. Rams are 13-18 SU and 12-18-1 ATS Game One preseason, including 0-2 SU/ATS with Jeff Fisher. With the Saints out to avenge an 11-point loss here as 7-point favorites during the regular season last year in a game in which they out-gained St. Louis by 152 yards, we recommend a play on New Orleans.
Eagles at Bears (-1½, 42)
2013 Preseason Records: PHI (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), CHI (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: First ever meeting
QB Rotations:
PHI - N. Foles, M. Sanchez, M. Barkley, G. J. Kinne
CHI - J. Cutler, J. Clausen, J. Palmer, D. Fales*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Pat Hawkins - It's year 2 of the Chip Kelly era, the first preseason saw the Eagles go 3-1 'over' in practice games. With the offensive players having a full year of transitioning under the new Kelly system expect the offense to be even more potent. At he QB rotation, Foles will get limited action, but expect Sanchez and Barkley to get considerable time, Barkley has vastly improved over last season. Its also the second season for Bears head coach Marc Trestman who also went 3-1 'over' in practice games.
Raiders at Vikings (-3, 38)
2013 Preseason Records: OAK (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), MIN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Raiders (+1) beat Vikings, 16-13 in 2006
QB Rotations:
OAK - M. Schaub, D. Carr*, M. McGloin, T. Edwards
MIN - C. Ponder, M. Cassel, T. Bridgewater*
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - Head Coach Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders' eight preseason games with him calling the shots. This year, the Raiders open up on the road against a Vikings squad with new head coach Mike Zimmer. I look for Zimmer to want to go for the win here in front of the home crowd, and add in the fact that with this quarterback rotation of Ponder, Cassel, and Bridgewater I can see the Vikings easily coming away with the double-digit win and spread cover here.
* Rookie