NFL Preseason Primer: Monday Game Betting Breakdown
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
A look from the bettor's perspective of Monday's NFL preseason game.
Pittsburgh at Washington (-1, 38)
Week 2 of the NFL preseason concludes Monday night in the Nation's capital where the RG3-less Redskins host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously, the big story with Washington right now is Griffin's status. The Shanahans aren't even going to let him sniff the field here. And why should they? In fellow second-year QB Kirk Cousins, they have a more than capable backup, one that completed six of seven passes for 52 yards and a touchdown in last week's 22-21 at Tennessee.
The Steelers have some work to do after an ugly performance last week against the Giants. They lost at home 18-13, thanks to a lot of mistakes. They committed seven penalties, had a punt blocked and fumbled a handoff in the end zone, resulting in a safety. The offensive line didn't do a very good job of protecting Ben Roethlisberger while he was in there, and when Big Ben left, the offense didn't do much from there.
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins
The second full week of NFL preseason football ends Monday night when Steelers practice at FedEx Field with Redskins. In preseason wagering it's always best to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches simply don't give a damn other than concentrate on evaluating personnel before the real season begins. Here we have two head coaches that have an August winning mentality. The 'Black and Yellow' have shown August games matter with coach Mike Tomlin guiding troops, as they're 19-7 (14-11-1 ATS) in his six preseason years. On the other side, Mike Shanahan with his "Just Win" in August attitude is an amazing 50-30 (44-34-2 ATS) since his Oakland days, 9-4 (8-5 ATS) with Redskins including 5-1 (4-2 ATS) at FedEx field. Give the edge to the all-time preseason champ Mike Shanahan and his squad knowing there's established football betting patterns going against Mike Tomlin. Steelers are 0-2 ATS with the coach after scoring <17 pts previous game, 1-4 ATS in preseason road openers and Steelers are 0-3 ATS vs Redskins during August w/Tomlin running the show. Finally, dating back to 2000 the Steelers are on a 1-5 SU/ATS skid vs Redskins in these practice sessions.
Betting Notes - Steelers at Redskins
Vegasinsider.com
Preseason Trends
Even though the Colts beat the Giants 20-12 on the road last night, the home team has still produced a 12-3 straight up and 10-5 against the spread record in Week 2 of the preseason.
Total players have seen a stalemate (7-7-1) in Week 2 after watching the ‘over’ connect at a 70 percent (12-5-1) clip through the Hall of Fame Game and first week.
Tight games have been very common this week with seven of the 15 contests decided by five points or less.
Pittsburgh at Washington (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.) – Click here for Winners
Week 1 Notes
Pittsburgh (0-1) – The Steelers lost to the Giants 18-13 last Saturday as 2 ½-point home favorites. Pittsburgh never led in the game and its only touchdown came in the fourth quarter on a fumble recovery in the endzone.
Washington (1-0) - The Redskins beat the Titans 22-21 last Thursday as three-point road underdogs. Washington trailed 21-14 late in the game before backup quarterback Pat White rallied the ‘Skins for the game-winning score and two-point conversion.
Expected QB Rotation
Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)
Washington - Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Pittsburgh – 2-1
Washington – 1-2
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Mike Tomlin (19-7)
Since starting in 2007, Tomlin has never had a record below 3-1 in the preseason. He’s 0-1 this season and has never lost back-to-back games during his tenure in Pittsburgh.
Mike Shanahan (50-23, 9-4 w/Washington)
Three of Shanahan’s four preseason losses with the Redskins have come on the road.
Off the Wire
Pittsburgh
The Steelers first-team offense and defense will get a longer look against the Redskins according to reports after both units only played two possessions in Week 1.
Rookie running back Le'Veon Bell was held out of Week 1 of the preseason but is expected to make his debut tonight. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will help carry the load.
Tight end Heath Miller (knee) will miss Monday’s game and possibly the rest of the preseason.
Washington
Kirk Cousins is expected to play for a half before Rex Grossman and Pat White split the final two quarters.
Tight end Fred Davis will receive more extensive playing time tonight.
Wideouts Pierre Garcon (shoulder) and Donte Stallworth (hamstring) are both ‘doubtful’ for tonight.
Handicapping Notes
The Steelers are 4-2 in their last six preseason games on the road
The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six preseason games on the road
Washington is 5-1 at home in the preseason under Shanahan
In 2011, the Redskins beat the Steelers 16-7 in Week 1 of the preseason
Line Analysis
Pittsburgh opened as a one-point road favorite last Monday and the line has shifted to home team. Most betting shops have Washington installed as a 2 ½-point favorite.
The total opened at 38 and is hovering between 39 and 39 ½ points at multiple outfits.
Expert’s Take – Tony Stoffo
Pittsburgh Preseason Analysis – In Part I of my Preseason Profit Report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the ‘over’ go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.
Washington Preseason Analysis - Mike Shanahan has always taken these preseason games seriously, and a strong trend has developed since his return with the Redskins, and that is that Washington is a perfect 3-0 in their dress rehearsal game since Shanahan has returned dominating their opponent in all three of these games. Washington’s dress rehearsal game this year is against the Bills on Aug. 24.