NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, December 26th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
Monday, December 26
DETROIT (9 - 5) at DALLAS (12 - 2) - 12/26/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Detroit at Dallas
Detroit: 2-12 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Dallas: 7-1 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game
NFL Week 16
Lions (9-5) @ Cowboys (12-2) — Detroit has trailed in 4th quarter in 13 of 14 games; they’re 3-1 in dome games on road, with only loss by 7 in Houston. Lions are 4-2 as road underdogs- they lead Packers by game in NFC North, host Packers next week. Cowboys are 0-4 vs spread in last four games after covering nine in row before that; they’re 3-3 as a home favorite. Dallas won six of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 4 or less points. Average total in last six series games is 58. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-6 vs spread, 8-4 at home; NFC North underdogs are 10-8, 7-7 on road. Lion QB Stafford is from Dallas area, won state title in HS, playing for same HS as Jerry Jones’ grandson. Under is 8-0 in Detroit’s last eight games, 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five.
Armadillosports.com
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Cowboys
By Covers.com
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 45)
Christmas came early for the Dallas Cowboys, who clinched the NFC East title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs before taking the field in Week 16. With the New York Giants losing to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, it secured the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye for Dallas, which will host the Detroit Lions on Monday night.
While the Cowboys have nothing for which to play, the stakes remain plenty high for the NFC North-leading Lions, who could have a playoff berth wrapped by before Monday night's kickoff. Detroit is trying to stave off resurgent Green Bay, holding a one-game lead over the Packers with a potential winner-take-all showdown looming in Week 17. Dallas coach Jason Garrett and Lions counterpart Jim Caldwell both have said they do not plan on resting their starters regardless of the circumstances, and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expounded on the thought process in a radio interview Friday. "I know that in our (2007) season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame," Jones said. "And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through."
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7.5-point home favorites, but since then the number has bounced back and forth between -7 and -6.5, where it currently sits. The total hit the board at 41.5 and has been bet all the way up to the current number of 45. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Lions (-0.5) - Cowboys (-5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -7.5
WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Both team would be in the postseason if the season were to start today. That makes this a game that figures to played with playoff intensity. The Cowboys will look to get QB Dak Prescott back on track, with Tony Romo itching at the chance to enter this contest. With this being Dallas’ fifth straight primetime appearance (0-4 ATS the previous four), look for defensive war.” - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Trap game here, with Dallas already having home field for the playoffs clinched. We had Dallas as -7 point favs before the Thursday night game and have since moved to Lions +6.5 with the Lions getting over 75% of the action to Cover. I suspect this line will come down even more the closer we get to game time." - Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag.
INJURY REPORT:
Lions - QB M. Stafford (probable Monday, finger), DE Z. Asah (questionable Monday, shoulder), S R. Bush (questionable Monday, back), LB D. Levy (questionable Monday, knee), DT H. Ngata (questionable Monday, quadricep), RB A. Abdullah (questionable Monday, foot) RB T. Riddick (doubtful Monday, wrist), C T. Swanson (doubtful Monday, concussion), CB D. Slay (doubtful Monday, hamstring).
Cowboys - D. Bryant (probable Monday, back), DT T. Crawford (questionable Monday, shoulder), OT T. Smith (questionable Monday, back), DE J. Crawford (questionable Monday, foot), LB S. Lee (questionable Monday, knee), S J. Wilcox (questionable Monday, thigh), DE D. Lawrence (questionable Monday, back), DL C. Thornton (questionable Monday, ankle), LB J. Durant (questionable Monday, elbow), DE B. Mayowa (questionable Monday, undisclosed), OL L. Collins (questionable Monday, toe).
ABOUT THE LIONS (9-5, 8-6 ATS, 4-10, O/U): Detroit is coming off its lowest offensive output of the season in a 17-6 loss to the New York Giants last weekend, which snapped a five-game winning streak. "Often times we've won several games in a row. We had one bump in the road," Caldwell said of any lasting effect the loss to the Giants may have on his team, which last won a division title in 1993. "A lot of teams have that. It's what you do after that is what counts." The Lions feature one of the league's least productive ground games, ranking 30th overall at 81.7 yards per game, and could again be without leading rusher Theo Riddick (wrist), who also is third on the team with 53 receptions but did not practice Friday. Detroit's defense has been sturdy against the run (98.9 yards allowed), but cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) also did not practice Friday
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-2, 9-5 ATS, 5-9 O/U): The natural question among Dallas followers is whether the team will rest rookie quarterback Dak Prescott in one of the final two games and get Tony Romo on the field. "I'm not going to answer you because I don't want to get anything going at all," Jones said. "I have to pinch myself to think about where we are at the quarterback position knowing how critical a setback or an injury is to any position. But especially at that position as we look to this playoff, that would be very near the top of my list what we've got at the position." Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott could be in line for some rest, leading the league with 1,551 rushing yards -- more than 300 ahead of runner-up DeMarco Murray. Linebacker Randy Gregory, back from serving two drug-related suspensions, is expected to make his season debut against Detroit.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Lions' last eight games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Cowboys' last 7 games in December.
CONSENSUS: With the Lions having a little more to play for than the Cowboys, 61 percent of wagers are backing Detroit. As for the total, a whopping 71 percent of wagers are on the Over 45.
MNF - Lions at Cowboys
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The final NFL game of 2016 takes place in Dallas on Monday night with an NFC battle between the Cowboys and Lions. Dallas has wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by virtue of New York’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night. Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a victory on Monday, but can’t capture the NFC North title until next Sunday’s matchup with Green Bay.
LAST WEEK
The Cowboys (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) pulled out a 26-20 home victory over the Buccaneers as kicker Dan Bailey knocked in three field goals in the fourth quarter. Dallas failed to cover the spread for the fourth straight game as it closed as 6½-point favorites, but running back Ezekiel Elliott continued his solid rookie season by rushing for 159 yards and a touchdown. Elliott has eclipsed the 100-yard mark seven times this season, while fellow rookie standout Dak Prescott completed 32-of-36 passes for 276 yards. Dallas’ defense stepped up by creating four takeaways (three interceptions and a fumble recovery), as the Cowboys cashed the UNDER for the third consecutive contest.
The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 17-6 setback to the Giants as four-point underdogs. Detroit was held to its lowest point total of the season, while hitting the UNDER for the eighth straight game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford couldn’t get the Lions in the end zone as he continues to nurse a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. The Lions rushed for 56 yards as Detroit has been held to less than 100 yards on the ground in 12 of the past 13 games.
UNDER THUNDER
Both teams are solid UNDER streaks as mentioned above, as Detroit has allowed 20 points or less in each of the eight games during this UNDER run. Since cashing a pair of OVERS at Indianapolis and Green Bay in September, Detroit has finished UNDER the total in five consecutive games away from Ford Field. Dallas is 4-3 to the UNDER at home this season, as the Cowboys have given up 20 points or fewer in five home contests.
SERIES HISTORY
The Cowboys knocked out the Lions in the 2013 Wild Card round, 24-20, but Detroit cashed as six-point underdogs. Detroit jumped out to an early 14-0 cushion, but the Cowboys rallied back thanks to a late Tony Romo touchdown pass to Terrance Williams with 2:32 remaining in regulation to take the lead for good. The Lions have won each of the past two regular season meetings with the Cowboys, including a 34-30 triumph in 2011 as Detroit erased a 27-3 deficit.
LINE MOVEMENT
When the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook put out opening numbers on Week 16 games last week, the Cowboys opened as seven-point favorites with Dallas shaded at -120 (Bet $120 to win $100). That number has slightly dipped to 6½, while the total jumped from 43 in the opener to 45 on Sunday afternoon.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson looks at Detroit’s latest setback in which New York took advantage of several Lions’ mishaps, “Last week’s loss to the Giants was devastating with great missed opportunities losing a scoring opportunity with a fumble for a touchback and also having a Stafford interception in the end zone as Detroit wound up with more yardage than New York but only six points.”
Detroit continues to play close contests in spite of last week’s double-digit defeat, as Nelson points out how close the margins have been with the Lions, “Detroit has played almost exclusively close games this season as the 11-point loss last week was the largest margin of defeat for the Lions all season while eight of the nine wins for the Lions came by single scores. Detroit is 3-4 in its road games this season and this will be a second straight road test vs. a top NFC contender.”
With Dallas’ recent struggles against the number at home, that is something that could continue on Monday according to Nelson, “Dallas has been a historically awful home favorite in recent years with an 11-29-1 ATS run since the start of the 2010 season. Detroit has not been this big of an underdog all season while going 5-3 ATS while getting points this season, though only 2-3 ATS in the road instances.”
PRIMETIME NUMBERS
This is the final Monday night game of the season as favorites have posted a 6-9-1 SU/ATS record, as no underdogs have covered in losses. Two underdogs of six points or more have won outright on Monday nights this season, including Carolina (+7) last week against Washington. The UNDER is 9-6-1 on Mondays, but four of those OVERS have hit in the last seven games. Both Dallas and Detroit are playing their first Monday night game this season, as the Cowboys are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their past four as a Monday night home favorite since 2010.
PROPS
Detroit
M. Stafford – Total Completions
24½ - OVER (-110)
24½ - UNDER (-110)
M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (+120)
1½ - UNDER (-140)
G. Tate – Total Receiving Yards
67½ - OVER (-110)
67½ - UNDER (-110)
Dallas
D. Prescott – Total Gross Passing Yards
239½ - OVER (-110)
239½ - UNDER (-110)
D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (+110)
1½ - UNDER (-130)
E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
102½ - OVER (-110)
102½ - UNDER (-110)
NEXT WEEK
The Cowboys are playing out the string with home-field wrapped up as Dallas travels to Philadelphia in Week 17. The Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles as slight one-point home favorites. The Lions host the Packers in a winner-take-all matchup at Ford Field for the NFC North title. Green Bay opened as a one-point road favorite according to the Westgate Superbook.