NFL Betting News and Notes Monday, December 28

NFL Week 16 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Cincinnati at Denver: Look, it’s a Monday night game that actually means something. The Broncos and Bengals are vying for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the bye that goes with it, so this may also be a potential preview of a divisional playoff game next month. The Bengals are hoping to have QB Andy Dalton back from his thumb injury by then, but saw backup A.J. McCarron fill in nicely in a 24-14 win over San Francisco that gives them hope he’ll be able to solve perhaps the league’s top defense. It would certainly help his cause if TE Tyler Eifert can return from a concussion. Coming off a rough second half in Pittsburgh, the Broncos elite secondary will be looking to rebound and hoping to get starting safeties Darian Stewart (hamstring) and T.J. Ward (ankle) back. QB Peyton Manning may return from his bout with plantar fasciitis, but Brock Osweiler is likely to remain the starter unless Manning can start getting in full practice work. Monitor this situation late in the week. A Denver loss and Kansas City win would even up the AFC West entering the final week of the regular season.

NFL Week 16

Bengals (11-3) @ Broncos (10-4) -- Denver isn't in playoffs yet; they've been shut out in second half of last three games (36-0), losing last two weeks after leading by 12+ points at half. Denver win here vaults them above Bengals into #2 seed, which includes first round bye. Broncos' 37-28 loss at Cincy LY was their first in last five games with Bengals, but Cincy lost last nine visits here- their last win in Denver was back in '75. Bengals won McCarron's first NFL start LW, but three TD drives totaled just 67 yards. In four of last six games, Denver lost the field position battle by 8+ yards. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Six of last eight Cincy games stayed under total.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

In this weeks Monday Night'r the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals both count on backup QB's in a clash with enormous playoff implications. What's at stake for both is the second seed in the AFC as it would possibly mean avoiding a wild-card matchup with suddenly streaking Pittsburgh Steelers. Although oddsmkers have given Denver the nod (-3.5) you bet Broncos at some risk.

Broncos have a 1-4 ATS skid as home chalk, 2-5 ATS slide as chalk vs the conference and enter 0-6 ATS after playing Steelers, 2-5-1 ATS under Monday Night Light's. On the other side, Bengals thrive in road games (7-0 ATS), are 6-2 ATS away vs conference, 3-1 ATS after playing Niners.

Bengals, Broncos clash on MNF
By Sportsbook.ag

CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-3) at DENVER BRONCOS (10-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -3.5, Total: 41

The Bengals will head to Denver on Monday night to face a Broncos team that is suddenly no longer a lock to finish atop the AFC West.

The Bengals went into San Francisco on Sunday and came away with a 24-14 victory as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati was dominant defensively in that one, allowing just 55 rushing yards and forcing four turnovers.

The team will look to keep up the solid play on that end against a Broncos team that was lousy offensively in the second half of a 34-27 loss to the Steelers in Week 15. Denver has now lost two straight games and now finds itself with only a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West.

The Broncos and Bengals have met just once over the past three seasons and Cincinnati was victorious in that contest. The Bengals hosted the Broncos in the game and won 37-28 as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since 1992, the Broncos are, however, 9-3 SU against the Bengals and that includes a 4-0 record in Denver. The Bengals have kept things interesting in the losses though, going 7-5 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS in Denver.

Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in road games on the year, but does have to face a Denver team that is 8-0 ATS after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992.

QB Andy Dalton (Thumb) remains out for the Bengals and TE Tyler Eifert (Concussion) is questionable for the team. The Broncos could be without RB C.J. Anderson (Back), who is questionable for this game. However, they could get back S T.J. Ward (Ankle), who has missed the past few games and is listed as questionable for Monday night.

The Bengals dominated the 49ers on Sunday, winning 24-14 in a game that truly never seemed like it was going to get away. AJ McCarron looked excellent in his first start for Cincinnati, throwing for 192 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He completed 71.4% of his passes and will have the Bengals in position to win games as long as he isn’t turning the ball over.

The guy that was responsible for most of Cincinnati’s points was Jeremy Hill. Hill rushed for just 31 yards on 19 carries, but he did find the end zone twice. He will need to run the ball well the rest of the way, as the Bengals will be leaning heavily on the ground game until Andy Dalton is back.

Cincinnati’s defense (17.4 PPG allowed, 1st in NFL) was superb against the 49ers, allowing just 14 points in the game. The Bengals are allowing just 93.2 YPG (8th in NFL) on the ground this season and were able to hold the 49ers to 55 yards on Sunday. If they can keep it up defensively then McCarron will be under a lot less pressure the rest of the season.

Brock Osweiler threw for 296 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but he completed just 47.7% of his throws. If he is to start over Peyton Manning on Monday then he will need to be a lot more accurate. His inefficiency as a passer killed his team in the second half and it was a major reason they were unable to come away with a big road win in Pittsburgh.

Denver’s defense wasn’t much better though. The Broncos are allowing just 79.9 YPG on the ground this season (1st in NFL) and 200.0 YPG through the air (1st in NFL), but they were unable to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday. Antonio Brown shredded the Broncos defense for 189 yards and two touchdowns. He had 16 receptions in the game and Denver will need to turn things around on Monday night. A matchup with the inexperienced AJ McCarron could be just what the doctor ordered and this Broncos team will come out with plenty of emotion, as it does not want to let its division lead slip away.

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bengals at Broncos
By Covers.com

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39)

Both starting quarterbacks have been lost to injury, but the stakes are still high in Monday night's clash between the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and the Denver Broncos. Despite losing starter Andy Dalton to a fractured right thumb two weeks ago, the Bengals can wrap up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason with a victory.

Cincinnati, which holds a one-game edge over Denver and is one game behind New England for the best record in the AFC, can also wrap up the AFC North with a win. "It will be fun, it's a great opportunity," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Both teams have earned it, and we've got to have at it." Brock Osweiler will make his sixth consecutive start in place of Peyton Manning for Denver, which blew a 17-point halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat at Pittsburgh last weekend. The Broncos still have a chance at the No. 2 seed but also had their lead cut to one game over Kansas City in the AFC West.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point home favorites and were bet down to -3, but have come back up to the opening number. The total opened at 41 and has since come down 2-points to now sit at 39.

INJURY REPORT:

Bengals - WR A. Green (probable Monday, back), T J. Fisher (questionable Monday, concussion), S G. Iloka (questionable Monday, knee), WR M. Alford (questionable Monday, personal), TE T. Eifert (out Monday, concussion), QB A. Dalton (out indefinitely, thumb).

Broncos - RB C. Anderson (probable Monday, back), QB B. Osweiler (probable Monday, shoulder), S T. Ward (questionable Monday, ankle), S O. Bolden (questionable Monday, groin), S D. Stewart (questionable Monday, hamstring), LB L. McCray (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB P. Manning (out Monday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in Denver. It will be a clear night, but temperatures will be in the low 20's to high teens for the game.

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-3) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -3

CAPPERS SAY: "Despite the fact that TE Tyler Eifert didn't play and AJ Green limped off the field early, backup QB AJ McCarron looked solid even with a VERY conservative gameplan at San Francisco. As for Denver, after going 8-8 on third downs while racking up 27 first half points against the Steelers, Brock Osweiler's second half was ugly: 7-26 for 82 yards, with only one third down conversion." - Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-3, 11-2-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U): A.J. McCarron threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Dalton in a loss to Pittsburgh, but was solid in a 24-14 win at San Francisco with 192 yards on 15-of-21 despite the absence of star tight end Tyler Eifert and limited nature of top wideout A.J. Green. With Eifert set to miss a second straight game due to a concussion and Cincinnati's ground game struggling the past two weeks, McCarron will have his hands full with the league's top-ranked defense. The Bengals are no slouches on the other side of the ball, allowing a league-low 17.4 points per game.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (10-4, 8-6 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U): Osweiler threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in the first half alone against Pittsburgh, but for the third straight week he was unable to put any points on the scoreboard in the second half as Denver lost its second in a row. The running game has not been much of a factor all season, but Emmanuel Sanders came alive with 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown and fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had a pair of scoring receptions. The Broncos were torched by Pittsburgh's passing game, but they are tied for the league lead with 47 sacks and feature the No. 1 run defense.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bettors are backing the Broncos in this Monday night matchup. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the over.

MNF - Bengals at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Bengals are headed to the playoffs while the Broncos on the verge of clinching a berth, but each team is down to their second-string quarterback for the immediate future. Denver led the AFC West with a 7-0 record halfway through the season, but Kansas City has made this division race interesting with one week remaining. The Chiefs held off the Browns on Sunday to improve to 10-5 and pull within a half-game of first place in the AFC West. Now, if Denver wins its final two games or Kansas City loses to Oakland next week, the Broncos will wrap up their fifth straight division title.

Cincinnati (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS) travels west for the second straight week, coming off last Sunday’s 24-14 triumph at San Francisco to cash as seven-point favorites. A.J. McCarron stepped in for the injured Andy Dalton as the former Alabama quarterback threw for 192 yards and a touchdown to give the Bengals their third win over an NFC West foe this season. Cincinnati built a 24-0 advantage before San Francisco reached the end zone twice in the second half, while forcing four 49ers turnovers.

Two weeks ago, Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) was in a prime spot to capture the top seed in the AFC playoffs as long as it finished December strong. However, Gary Kubiak’s team has lost back-to-back games to the Raiders and Steelers to potentially falling into a Wild Card spot. In last Sunday’s 34-27 setback at Pittsburgh, the Broncos blew a 27-10 second quarter lead and didn’t register a single point after halftime. Brock Osweiler put together one of his best games as a pro by throwing for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while former Steeler wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders hauled in 181 yards and a score in the loss.

These teams hooked up last December in a Monday night contest at Paul Brown Stadium, as the Bengals escaped with a 37-28 triumph as 3½-point underdogs. Denver erased a 20-7 deficit by outscoring Cincinnati, 21-7 to grab a 28-27 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Mike Nugent put the Bengals in front with a field goal, followed by a Dre Kirkpatrick interception return of Peyton Manning for a touchdown and clinch the nine-point victory. The Bengals’ defense picked off Manning four times, while A.J. Green was held without a catch for Cincinnati.

Marvin Lewis’ squad has seen plenty of success on the road this season, posting a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS mark away from Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati has faced only two teams on the highway that own winning records, losing at Arizona and beating Pittsburgh, while the Bengals are 3-0 SU/ATS against AFC West opponents this season.

The Broncos wrap up the regular season with consecutive home games as Denver hosts San Diego next week with the division title on the line. Denver hasn’t lost three consecutive contests since the end of the 2011 regular season with Tim Tebow at quarterback, while the Broncos have compiled a 10-2 record off a loss since September 2012.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson breaks down the effect of each team losing its starting quarterback, “After leading Denver to wins in his first three starts, the Broncos have lost back-to-back games despite building early leads as Osweiler and the Broncos have had consecutive terrible second half performances from the offense. Cincinnati won with McCarron starting last week, but the offense struggled with very limited production against San Francisco and this figures to be a much tougher test against one of the top ranked defenses in the league and this matchup likely comes down to which quarterback has a better performance.”

Nelson believes this matchup is a toss-up in spite of the Broncos being favored, “Denver has had the upper hand in this AFC series winning SU in 13 of the last 16 meetings going back to 1983, but the Broncos appear in worse shape for this matchup with key injuries with the loss of safety David Bruton added to the mix as well as the distractions surrounding Manning in the headlines this weekend. For his part, Osweiler has played well in stretches through some big games already while this will be a big leap in class for McCarron in his second ever start in the NFL with the Bengals in a second straight road game out west.”

Tonight marks the final Monday night game of the season as underdogs put together a 12-3-1 ATS record, while winning nine times outright. Road underdogs posted a 5-0-1 ATS and 5-1 SU mark in the last six opportunities, including Detroit’s 35-27 triumph at New Orleans last Monday. Denver is making its first appearance on Monday night football this season, while Cincinnati looks to atone for a 10-6 home defeat to Houston as 10-point favorites back in Week 10.

From a totals perspective, the Broncos have cashed the ‘under’ in four of six games at Sports Authority Field this season, while the Bengals have finished ‘under’ the total in six of the previous eight games, following a 5-1 start to the ‘over.’ Cincinnati will be without standout tight end Tyler Eiffert for the second straight game due to a concussion suffered against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.

The Broncos are currently listed as a three-point favorite at most books, with the juice listed at -125 or -130, while other outlets have Denver listed at -3½ (-110). The total is set at 40 with frigid temperatures expected in the single-digits when the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST. This AFC showdown can be seen on ESPN.