NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, December 5th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 6) at NY JETS (3 - 8 ) - 12/5/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY JETS
Indianapolis is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
NY Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
Indianapolis at NY Jets
Indianapolis: 36-60 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 7-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
NFL Week 13
Colts (5-6) @ Jets (3-8 ) — Indy is 5-2 this season when scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when they do not; Colts are 2-2 in true road games, 2-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 14 at Denver, 3 in Houston. Jets lost last three games by 4-3-5 points; they’re 1-4 at home, 2-1 as home underdogs, with home losses by 1-10-3-5 points- they beat Baltimore 24-16 for only home win. Colts lost by 1-26-13 points in last three games with Jets, scoring only 10.7 pts/game; teams split last eight visits here. Three of last eight series meetings came in playoffs. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread, 2-1 as favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-7 vs spread, 4-2 as underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Indy games, 6-1 in Jets’ last seven games.
Armadillosports.com
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Colts at Jets
By Covers.com
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (+2, 48.5)
The Indianapolis Colts are banking that the return of quarterback Andrew Luck can put the sputtering team on the fast track to the top of the AFC South. After sitting out one game due to a concussion, Luck likely will be under center on Monday night as the visiting Colts attempt to even their record with a date against the floundering New York Jets.
Backup Scott Tolzien (two interceptions) struggled to ignite the offense in a 28-7 loss to Pittsburgh last week, dropping Indianapolis one game behind division-leading Houston (6-5) and a half-game behind upstart Tennessee (6-6). "Sitting and watching is no fun," Luck said of his rare view from the sideline. "Playing is fun. Winning is fun." While the Colts are still in the thick of the race in the mediocre AFC South, the Jets have dropped three in a row to rest comfortably in the basement of the AFC East. Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for two touchdowns in a 22-17 loss to New England on Sunday and did the same in a 20-7 victory over Indianapolis in the last meeting on Sept. 21, 2015.
POWER RANKINGS: Colts (+1) - Jets (+4) + home field (-3) = Pick 'Em
LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened as 1.5-point road favorites and with the uncertainty of starting quarterback Andrew Luck's status (concussion) the line was slightly unstable. The spread went as low a a pick 'em early in the week, but when it became apparent that Luck would be starting the line returned to the opening number of 1.5 and by Sunday was up to Colts by 2. The total opened at 49 and was stable all week until taking a slight dip to 48.5 on Sunday evening. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for the Meadowlands on Monday night is for clear skies and temperatures in the low-40's. There will be a slight cross-breeze of about 6-8 mph.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Despite a 5-6 SU record, the Colts still have plenty to play for in this game as they are just a half game behind Houston and Tennessee for first place in the AFC South division. The Colts actually have a big game on deck this coming Sunday at home versus the Titans. Indianapolis is decent on offense, but terrible on defense this season, allowing 27.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 22.9 ppg and 5.7 yppl)." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Colts - CB V. Davis (Probable, groin), QB A. Luck (Probable, concussion), C R. Kelly (Probable, shoulder), LB T. Cole (Probable, back), WR T. Hilton (Probable, back), DT H. Ridgeway (Questionable, back), CB C. Milton (Questionable, foot), T D. Good (Questionable, neck), S C. Geathers (Out, concussion), LB R. Mathis (Out, elbow), CB P. Robinson (Out, groin), CB F. Williams (I-R, undisclosed), DE K. Langford (I-R, knee), WR Q. Bray (I-R, ankle), G H. Thornton (I-R, foot), S A. Williamson (I-R, knee).
Jets - C N. Mangold (Probable), WR B. Marshall (Probable, knee), WR J. Marshall (Questionable, concussion), T B. Giacomini (Questionable, back), LB L. Mauldin (Questionable, ankle), LB B. Carter (Questionable, quadricep), WR D. Smith (Questionable, knee), CB M. Williams (Questionable, ankle), T B. Shell (Questionable, shoulder), CB N. Marshall (Questionable, ankle), S C. Pryor (Out, concussion), DT S. McLendon (Out, hamstring), WR E. Decker (I-R, shoulder), T R. Clady (I-R, shoulder), QB G. Smith (I-R, knee), TE B. Bowman (I-R, knee), LB E. Henderson (I-R, undisclosed), DE L. Thomas (I-R, shoulder), RB R. Morris (I-R, shoulder), DE J. Obioha (I-R, undisclosed).
ABOUT THE COLTS (5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Luck's most trusted target is T.Y. Hilton (NFL fifth-best 942 receiving yards), and the elusive wideout is expected to play on Monday despite sustaining a back injury against the Steelers. Wide receiver Donte Moncrief reeled in a season high-tying six receptions last week and scored in his fourth straight game, although his yardage total (178) in that span doesn't jump off the page. Veteran Frank Gore has struggled in each of the last two games with just 78 yards on 33 carries, but the 33-year-old needs just 30 yards rushing to move past Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett (12,739) for eighth on the NFL's all-time list.
ABOUT THE JETS (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS, 5-5-1 O/U): Brandon Marshall reeled in his first touchdown reception since Oct. 9 on Sunday and looks to continue to torment the Colts, against whom he has 37 catches for 420 yards and four scores in his last three meetings. The veteran wideout is expected to be matched up against former Dolphins teammate Vontae Davis despite nursing knee and foot injuries that have prevented him from practicing on Thursday and Friday. New York could also look to exploit Indianapolis' 23rd-ranked run defense (116.3 yards per game) with veteran Matt Forte, who has amassed 508 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in the past five contests.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Jets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games in December.
* Under is 21-5 in Colts' last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 4-0 in Jets' last 4 Monday games.
* Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
CONSENSUS: As of Sunday night, the public was favoring the road favorite Colts with 60 percent of the selections and Under was picking up 62 percent of the wagers.
MNF - Colts at Jets
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The AFC Wild Card is heating up through the first weekend in December, but the Colts and Jets are currently on the outside looking in. Indianapolis travels to Met Life Stadium on Monday night trying to reach the .500 mark with a victory and stay in the midst of the AFC South race. New York is riding out the string as the Jets look to snap a three-game losing streak and pick up their second home victory of the season.
LAST WEEK
The Colts (5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) played without quarterback Andrew Luck on Thanksgiving night due to being in the concussion protocol as Indianapolis was blown out by Pittsburgh, 28-7 as eight-point home underdogs. Scott Tolzien started in place of Luck, but threw two interceptions, while Antonio Brown reached the end zone three times for Pittsburgh. The Steelers outgained the Colts, 369-310, as Indianapolis suffered its third home loss of the season.
New York (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) continues to sit at the bottom of the AFC East following last Sunday’s 22-17 home defeat to New England. The Jets managed to cover as nine-point underdogs in spite of blowing a 10-0 lead as New York scored only seven points in the second half. Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed two touchdown passes and compiled 269 yards through the air in the defeat, but the Jets rushed for just 64 yards.
HOME WOES
The Jets have slumped to a 1-4 record at Met Life Stadium this season with the only victory coming against the Ravens in Week 7 as 2½-point favorites, 24-16. Three of four home defeats have come by five points or less, but own a 1-2 ATS record as a home ‘dog.
LUCK FACTOR
The Colts will have their franchise quarterback under center on Monday after Luck missed the Pittsburgh loss. Luck has thrown for under 300 yards in each of his last three starts, while getting intercepted four times in this span. Since starting 0-3 on the road, the Colts have won two straight on the highway at Green Bay and Tennessee, as Indianapolis scored 31 and 34 points respectively in those wins.
SERIES HISTORY
These teams are meeting on Monday night for the second straight season as the Jets cruised past the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium last September, 20-7 as six-point underdogs. New York intercepted Luck three times, while Indianapolis turned the ball over five times. Fitzpatrick connected on a pair of touchdown passes, including 15-yard scoring strike to Brandon Marshall. The Jets have won three consecutive meetings against the Colts since the 2010 playoffs, as Indianapolis is facing New York at Met Life Stadium for the first time since Luck’s rookie season of 2012.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Colts opened as one-point road favorites at the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook, but that number moved up to Indianapolis -2 after Luck’s status was upgraded to probable. The total opened at 49½, but that has number slipped to between 48½ and 49 at most sports books. The weather at Met Life Stadium shouldn’t be a huge factor with kickoff temperatures in the low 40’s and partly cloudy skies.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the play of Fitzpatrick has definitely been one of the main reasons for New York’s struggles this season, “Fitzpatrick has had a disappointing season with just 57 percent completions and 13 interceptions compared with 10 touchdowns. He has taken 18 sacks and he rates 31st out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR. In fairness, nine of his 13 interceptions came in back-to-back games vs. two of the league’s best defensive teams and over his last six games he has thrown seven touchdowns with only three picks.”
On the Colts’ side, Nelson believes this team isn’t too far away from a return to the playoffs, “Indianapolis has road wins in Nashville and Green Bay this season and the Colts have three losses by four of or fewer points this season as this team isn’t far from being in a better position. Every Indianapolis win has come by a single score as laying points with a team allowing over 27 points per game certainly carries some risk. The long layoff for Indianapolis came at a great time to get Andrew Luck, Vontae Davis, Robert Mathis, and T.Y. Hilton likely back from injuries as the Colts will have few excuses if they fail in this opportunity to set up next week’s critical division showdown against Houston.”
PROPS
Indianapolis
A. Luck – Total Gross Passing Yards
268½ - OVER (-110)
268½ - UNDER (-110)
A. Luck – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-150)
1½ - UNDER (+130)
Will F. Gore score a touchdown?
YES +145
NO -165
New York
R. Fitzpatrick – Total Completions
20½ - OVER (-110)
20½ - UNDER (-110)
R. Fitzpatrick – Total Touchdowns + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-110)
2 – UNDER (-110)
B. Marshall – Total Receiving Yards
68½ - OVER (-110)
68½ - UNDER (-110)
NEXT WEEK
The Colts return home to host the Texans in a crucial AFC South showdown as Indianapolis goes for the season sweep. The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened Indianapolis as four-point favorites, as that number is creeping up to 4½. The Jets travel to San Francisco next Sunday, as New York is set at one-point road underdogs.
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Indianapolis at New York
According to Sports Interaction the rested Colts off since Thanksgiving are 1.5 point road favorites when they visit MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets. Always dangerous giving away points on the road especially with a team such as Indy sporting the leagues 31st ranked pass defense (278.7), 23rd ranked run defense (116.3). But, Colts have a lot more at stake and you can expect that motivation helps them get past Jets. Lay the small number knowing Colts have been money-in-the-bank off a bye week (10-2 ATS) and have a habit of cashing as road favorites vs a team off a loss (9-2 ATS).