NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MIAMI (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIAMI @ CAROLINA
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Miami
Carolina is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
NFL Week 10
Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3) — Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD’s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula’s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.
Armadillosports.com
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Dolphins at Panthers
Covers.com
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 38)
The Carolina Panthers are nipping at the heels of first place in the NFC South due in large part to their top-ranked defense, which has yielded an NFL-low 274.1 yards per game while their 29 sacks are second-best in the league. The Panthers look to continue their dominance on Monday night when they host the Miami Dolphins, who average an NFL-worst 14.5 points per game.
"How well can we protect? That's where it starts and it filters down after that," Miami coach Adam Gase said of his team's daunting task against Luke Kuechly (team-best 65 tackles), Julius Peppers (club-high 7.5 sacks) and company. "It's a huge puzzle and you're trying to put it together. ... We just have to find a way to clean a few things up. I feel like we're close." Given time, Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler completed a career-high 81 percent of his passes (34 of 42, 311 yards) in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Oakland. While the Dolphins have dropped two straight to even their record, the Panthers have answered a two-game skid with two wins of their own to remain a half-game behind streaking New Orleans in the NFC South. "A prime-time game and peaking right when we're supposed to be. Come Monday night, everybody come ready to rock and roll," said Carolina's Cam Newton, who has thrown for 11 touchdowns and rushed for two more in five Monday night appearances.
LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 7.5-point home favorites and steady action on the home side has bumped that number up to -9 heading into game day. The total hit betting boards at 39.5 and has been reduced to 38.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is one of the lowest NFL Over/Under totals this season, but for good reason as both offenses have struggled. Miami has averaged just 14.5 points per game on 4.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 21.6 ppg on 5.4 yppl). Carolina has averaged only 18.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 22.0 ppg on 5.7 yppl)." - Steve Merril.
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (2.5) - Panthers (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -7.
INJURY REPORT:
Dolphins - RB Damien Williams (Probable, Illness), C Ted Larsen (Probable, Bicep), DT Ndamukong Suh (Probable, Knee), CB Bobby McCain (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Mike Hull (Questionable, Shoulder), S Michael Thomas (Questionable, Knee), WR Jakeem Grant (Questionable, Illness), WR Rashawn Scott (Questionable, Foot), T Ja'Wuan James (I-R, Hamstring), S Nate Allen (Out, Calf), C Anthony Steen (Out, Foot), T Eric Smith (Out, Knee), LB Raekwon McMillan (I-R, Knee), CB Tony Lippett (I-R, Achilles), WR Isaiah Ford (I-R, Knee), QB Ryan Tannehill (I-R, Knee), LB Lamin Barrow (I-R, Foot), LB Koa Misi (I-R, Neck).
Panthers - WR Curtis Samuel (Probable, Ankle), QB Cam Newton (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Fozzy Whittaker (Questionable, Ankle), T John Theus (Questionable, Concussion), DE Bryan Cox Jr. (Questionable, Hip), S Mike Adams (Questionable, Shoulder), TE Chris Manhertz (Questionable, Concussion), C Ryan Kalil (Out, Neck), CB Cole Luke (Questionable, Ankle), CB Corn Elder (I-R, Knee), S Demetrious Cox (Out, Ankle), TE Greg Olsen (Out, Foot), DE Daeshon Hall (Out, Knee), WR Damiere Byrd (Out, Forearm), T Dan France (I-R, Concussion), CB Teddy Williams (I-R, Arm), DT Drew Iddings (I-R, Shoulder), WR Charles Johnson (I-R, Back).
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Miami's beleaguered ground attack took a step forward in the wake of the team trading Pro Bowl selection Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia, as Kenyan Drake amassed 104 yards from scrimmage versus Oakland while fellow running back Damien Williams had a touchdown reception. Wideout Jarvis Landry, who also found the end zone against the Raiders, is second in the NFL with 56 catches while his 344 receptions since entering the NFL in 2014 is the most in league history by a player in his first four seasons. Fellow wideout DeVante Parker showed no signs of an ailing ankle last week by reeling in five catches and 76 yards, but his toes have found the end zone on just one occasion this season.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U): While Newton rushed for 86 yards in Carolina's 20-17 win over Atlanta on Sunday, the Panthers likely were happier that rookie Christian McCaffrey picked up a season-best 66 with his first rushing score last week. "A lot had to do with the blocking up front," coach Ron Rivera said. "I thought we got our hands on them and we were able to push and Christian was able to make some cuts." McCaffrey leads the team with 54 catches out of the backfield, but Devin Funchess also has stepped up as the team's top wideout since Kelvin Benjamin was traded to Buffalo. "Very savvy. He's growing into the role," Newton said of the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Funchess, who had five catches for 86 yards last week.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Panthers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
* Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 road games.
* Under is 8-2-1 in Panthers last 11 games on grass.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Dolphins at a rate of 60 percent and the Over is getting 63 of the totals action
MNF - Dolphins at Panthers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Dolphins (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) play their third consecutive game in primetime, but are 0-2 so far in their first two night contests with losses to the Ravens and Raiders. Following a 40-0 blowout at the hands of Baltimore, Miami hung with Oakland before falling short in a 27-24 setback. The Dolphins managed a push as three-point underdogs, while quarterback Jay Cutler put together his finest game of the season by completing 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns.
Miami picked up the push after trailing 27-16 in the fourth quarter as Cutler connected with tight end Julius Thomas on a 15-yard touchdown pass, followed up by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to three. The Dolphins dropped to 6-2 in games decided by three points or less since the start of the 2016 season, while losing for the first time in this situation at Hard Rock Stadium.
Carolina (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) picked up its second straight divisional victory by rallying from a 10-0 deficit to knock off Atlanta, 20-17. The Panthers depended on their ground game to chew up the Falcons’ defense by racking up 201 yards rushing, including touchdowns by Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. Newton threw for only 137 yards, but rushed for 86 to help improve Carolina to 2-1 inside the NFC South following a dreadful 1-5 record within the division last season.
The Panthers own the league’s best defense from a yardage-per-game standpoint by limiting the opposition to an average of 274.1 yards a contest. However, Carolina yielded 355 yards in last week’s win over Atlanta, while getting outgained in three of the past four games. Five times this season, the Panthers have allowed 17 points or less, while going 2-2 in four games in which they allowed 24 points or more.
TOPSY-TURVY TOTALS
From a totals perspective, these teams have gone in opposite directions of late. Miami is riding a 3-0 streak to the OVER in the last three contests following five consecutive UNDERS to begin the season. Carolina put together four straight OVERS from Week 3 through Week 6, but the Panthers have cashed the UNDER in the last three contests. Last season, Carolina compiled a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER at Bank of America Stadium, but are 2-2 to the UNDER in four home games in 2017.
TERRIBLE TWOS
Since Adam Gase took over as head coach prior to the 2016 season, the Dolphins have lost consecutive games four times. In the first three instances, Miami bounced back with a victory, beating Cleveland in Week 3 and Pittsburgh in Week 6 last season, while knocking off Tennessee in Week 5 this season. We’ll see if Miami can avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2015.
SERIES HISTORY
The Dolphins and Panthers have met up only five times since Carolina entered the league in 1995. Miami captured the first four matchups, including a 24-17 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs in Charlotte back in 2009. Carolina won the most recent meeting in 2013 at Hard Rock Stadium, 20-16 as Newton hooked up with tight end Greg Olson on a one-yard touchdown pass in the final minute for the go-ahead score. Miami managed a cover as 4 ½-point underdogs, improving to 5-0 ATS lifetime against Carolina.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
The Panthers have won four of six Monday night games since 2012, while splitting a pair of games last season. Carolina is 1-2 ATS at home in this span with the only cover coming in an exciting finish over New England, 24-20 in 2013 as three-point favorites. The Dolphins have yet to play a Monday night game this season, while last losing when taking the field on a Monday in a 2015 home loss to the Giants. Since 2010, the Dolphins own a dreadful 0-7 ATS mark in Monday night action, including an 0-4 ATS mark as an underdog.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson provides his views on this matchup, starting with Carolina, “The Panthers are 21st in the league in total offense and 24th in scoring offense. On a per carry basis, the Panthers are the sixth-worst rushing team in the NFL gaining just 3.7 yards per carry as rookie Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been the high impact rookie many expected to see. Newton also hasn’t come close to his 2015 MVP numbers, 20th in the league in Total QBR and 27th in QB Rating.”
Shifting over to the Dolphins, the offense has been the main reason for the team’s struggles as Nelson outlines Miami’s offensive issues, “The Dolphins have averaged just 14.5 points per game for the worst scoring average in the NFL, even behind winless San Francisco and Cleveland. However, the Dolphins have scored 20, 31, and 24 in three of the last four weeks.”
This is a crucial game for both squads as the Dolphins still have a difficult schedule ahead, although Carolina’s slate isn’t as difficult, “The Dolphins still have to play the Patriots and Bills twice each in the final seven weeks while also drawing a road game at Kansas City as losing this week would greatly cripple their chances to finish above .500. For Carolina, the schedule out of the bye week is manageable, but they still have two difficult division road games remaining plus a home date with the Vikings as the chance to reach 10 wins might hinge on this game,” Nelson notes.
From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out a trend that goes against Miami following a successful game through the air, “The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS since Nov 09, 2014 after they threw for at least 300 yards last game.” The only time this situation occurred in 2017 came in the 40-0 blowout loss at Baltimore two weeks ago, while scoring a combined seven points in two road opportunities in this trend under Gase.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says there isn’t a strong opinion either way from bettors, “The spread has held steady since opening as there isn’t much sharp interest as of yet. Surprisingly, the public is pretty split up to this point. The pro action we have received on this game has come on the UNDER, which we’ve dropped a full point since opening.”
Dolphins, Panthers meet in Carolina
StatFox.com
The Dolphins will be hoping to get back over the .500 mark when they face the Panthers on Monday.
Miami is coming off of back-to-back losses, but this team is still 4-4 and right in the thick of things in the AFC. The Dolphins can still easily find a way to make it to the postseason, but they’re going to need to start winning some games soon. This one on Monday will not be easy, though. The Panthers have been excellent this season, which shows in their 6-3 record. Carolina has won-and-covered in two straight heading into this one, and the team played Tampa Bay and Atlanta in those contests. Both teams are very talented, so it’s not like the Panthers are beating nobody. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Dolphins are 3-11 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous games over the past three seasons. The Panthers also happen to be a ridiculous 8-1 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in the previous game over the past three seasons. And for those looking to take a total in this one, Miami is 6-0 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the past three years.
The Dolphins are going to be kicking themselves over the way they lost to the Raiders last week, as they wasted an extremely good performance from QB Jay Cutler in that one. Cutler was 34-for-42 with 311 yards, three touchdowns and no picks in that game, but the Dolphins were unable to finish drives and also had a costly turnover in the red zone in that one. That type of mistake can change the momentum in a game and that is exactly what happened there. Miami will need to be more careful with the football in this one, as it could be even harder to stop Carolina than it was Oakland. It was RB Kenyan Drake that fumbled in that one and he can’t afford to do it again, as Damien Williams played well against the Raiders and Drake needs to do everything he can to make sure he stays on the field. As for the passing game, Cutler would be happy to have yet another performance like he did against Oakland. He’d be wise to target WRs DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry as much as possible here, as both are excellent in their own ways. Parker can go up and catch contested balls, and Landry roams free over the middle of the field. Defensively, Miami needs to focus on keeping Cam Newton in the pocket. The Dolphins must also keep an eye on Christian McCaffrey at all times.
In a 20-17 win over the Falcons last game, Cam Newton threw for just 137 yards with no touchdowns and no picks. He did, however, rush for 86 yards and a touchdown in that game. His ability to run is what makes him so special as a player and you can count on him making some plays with his legs in this one. Another guy that will be out there eating up yards on the ground is rookie RB Christian McCaffrey. Last week, McCaffrey had what was probably his best game as a pro thus far. He rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown and also caught five passes for 28 yards. The trade of Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo will free up more opportunities in the passing game for McCaffrey and the same can also be said for WR Devin Funchess. Funchess is going to be counted on to make plays on the outside for Carolina often in this one and he should be able to do it against an Oakland team that definitely blows coverages on occasion. As for Carolina’s defense, the team just needs to get some pressure on Jay Cutler in this game. Cutler is as good as anybody when he is throwing with a clean pocket, but he does not handle pressure well and makes a ton of mistakes when he is uncomfortable.