NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 14th, 2016
CINCINNATI (3 - 4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (5 - 3) - 11/14/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CINCINNATI vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati at NY Giants
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
New York: 62-39 UNDER off a home win
NFL Week 10
Bengals (3-4-1) @ Giants (5-3) — Giants won/covered last three games; they’re 3-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, winning by 3-4-5 points, with 29-27 loss to Redskins. Four of NY’s last six TDs came on drives of less than 40 yards or were scored by defense. Bengals lost last three road games, by 8-14-18 points; their only road win was here in Week 1 vs Jets, after they had been 1-12 in Swamp Stadium, 1-3 vs Jets, 0-9 vs Giants. Home side won last nine series games. Cincy is 0-2 as an underdog this year, after being 7-2-1 as road dog last two years- they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight post-bye games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-8. Last three Bengal games went over total, as did three of four Giant home games.
Armadillosports.com
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (+1, 47)
Trying to keep pace with the surprising Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, the New York Giants go for their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. The Giants have rebounded from a three-game skid by sandwiching a pair of home wins around a "road" victory at London to remain two games off the division lead.
New York is coming off a 28-23 victory over Philadelphia, continuing a trend of being able to win the close games -- all five victories have come by a margin of 20 points. "We're getting better day by day," Giants star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. said. "Right now we're in a good spot. Just got to keep winning." Prior to last week's bye, Cincinnati played in London and came away with a 27-27 tie with Washington, which posted a 29-27 win at New York in Week 3. The Bengals, who are looking up at first-place Baltimore (5-4) in the AFC North, have been held to 17 points or fewer in each of its losses.
LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the betting week as 2.5-point home favorites but early action on the Bengals flipped that line to the Bengals as one-point road faves. The total opened at 47 and remains at that number as of Sunday evening. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies for opening kickoff, increasing cloud as the opening half progresses and a 60 percent chance of rain as the game moves into the second half. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees with barely a whisper of wind (1-2 mph).
INJURY REPORT:
Bengals - DE W. Gilberry (probable, personal), LB V. Burfict (probable, knee), WR J. Wright (questionable, hamstring), DE M. Johnson (questionable, calf), DT P. Sims (questionable, ribs), DT B. Thompson (questionable, knee), HB C. Peerman (questionable, arm), LB R. Maualuga (out, leg), CB W. Jackson III (I-R, pectoral), DT M. Hardison (I-R, shoulder), DT A. Billings (I-R, knee).
Giants - S A. Adams (questionable, shoulder), QB R. Nassib (questionable, elbow), DE K. Wynn (questionable, concussion), WR V. Cruz (doubful, ankle), G J. Pugh (early Dec, knee), S D. Thompson (I-R, foot), RB S. Vereen (elig week 12, tricep), S M. Thompson (I-R, knee), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, foot), LB J. Thomas (I-R, knee), FB W. Johnson (I-R, stinger), TE M. LaCosse (I-R, knee).
ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has a streak of four straight games with a 100-plus passer rating snapped in London, but he has thrown for 2,349 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Star wide receiver A.J. Green is second in the NFL with 896 yards, including three games with at least 169 yards, and the offense received an added boost with the return of tight end Tyler Eifert against the Redskins. Eifert had 13 touchdowns last season and showed what a difference-maker he can be in his first start with nine catches for 102 yards and a score. Cincinnati's defense has been vulnerable through the air, allowing an average of 262.4 yards.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Quarterback Eli Manning is coming off a four-touchdown performance against Philadelphia, the third time he has tossed at least three scoring passes in a game this season, but he also was picked off twice for the third time. Like Cincinnati, the Giants have a stud wideout in Beckham, who caught a pair of scoring passes against the Eagles to give him five in the past four games. The biggest problem for the Giants has been a stagnant running game led by Rashad Jennings that ranks last in the league with a meager average of 68.3 yards per game. Rookie Paul Perkins could see more time this week to help work the clock and protect a defense that yields 277.4 yards passing.
TRENDS:
Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The home team New York Giants are picking up 59 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 68 percent of the totals wagers.
MNF - Bengals at Giants
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 10 finale in the NFL pits an interconference battle between the Bengals and Giants at Met Life Stadium. Cincinnati is playing its second straight NFC East opponent following its tie in London against Washington, while New York is right in the midst of the Wild Card race following a three-game winning streak.
LAST WEEK
The Bengals sat through the bye week in Week 9, but we’ll rewind an extra week back to Week 8. Cincinnati finished in a 27-27 tie against Washington in London as the Bengals failed to reach the .500 mark. The Bengals fell to 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS as Marvin Lewis’ team couldn’t hold onto a 10-point third quarter lead. Kirk Cousins torched Cincinnati’s defense for 458 yards, compared to 284 yards passing from Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton. The Bengals picked up three touchdowns on the ground, including 152 yards rushing, the third straight game Cincinnati has rushed for at least 120 yards.
The Giants improved to 2-1 inside the NFC East after holding off the Eagles, 28-23 to cash as three-point home favorites. Eli Manning put up only 257 yards passing, but threw four touchdowns for the Giants, including a pair of scoring connections with Odell Beckham, Jr. New York’s ground game has been grounded for much of the season as the Giants accumulated only 54 yards on 24 carries, the fifth straight game they have been limited to 80 yards or fewer.
PRIMETIME PROBLEMS
Since 2012, the Bengals have struggled under the lights in the regular season by posting a 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS record. Cincinnati picked up a victory in its only primetime opportunity this season in Week 4 against Miami, but the Bengals are winless in their last three road contests played on Monday night. Last season, the Bengals split a pair of Monday nighters, including a 10-6 loss to Houston as 10-point home favorites.
GIANT SCORING
Since cashing the UNDER in their home opener against the Saints in Week 2, New York has easily eclipsed the OVER in each of its past three contests at Met Life Stadium. The Giants and their opponent have combined for at least 50 points in each of the last three home contests even though the closing totals were 47, 42½, and 42½. Monday’s total sits at 48 at Sportsbook.ag, as the Giants are 4-1 to the UNDER on totals of 44½ and higher.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Giants as two-point home favorites. However, that line has swung in Cincinnati’s favor as the Bengals are listed as one-point chalk at many sports books, including the Westgate. The total opened at 47 and is hovering between 47 and 48 at most outlets.
SERIES HISTORY
The Bengals are making their first ever trip to Met Life Stadium as Cincinnati last visited New York and the Meadowlands in 2008 as 13-point underdogs. Cincinnati cashed in a 26-23 overtime loss as the road team has never won in this series. The Bengals defeated the Giants in their last matchup in 2012 as 3½-point home underdogs, 31-13. Dalton torched New York for four touchdowns, while the Bengals’ defense intercepted Manning twice.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says that even though the Giants are in the playoff race, there are some negative numbers against them. “The Giants own a negative scoring differential on the season as all five wins have come by seven or fewer points, but New York is currently in a great position as if they can win Monday night the next two games are against the Bears and Browns and 8-3 is a very realistic possibility ahead of a difficult five-game stretch to close the season in December,” Nelson notes.
Since nobody is pulling away in the AFC North, Nelson comments that the Bengals can still finish atop their division if they take care of business, “The Bengals still have four division games remaining including both meetings with the Ravens ahead and no team left on Cincinnati’s schedule has a record better than 5-3 as a great second half run is possible for the 2015 division champions. Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with disappointing numbers, but the three road losses came at Pittsburgh, Dallas, and New England for a formidable slate.”
PROPS
Cincinnati
A. Dalton – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (+110)
1½ - UNDER (-130)
A.J. Green – Total Receiving Yards
87½ - OVER (-110)
87½ - UNDER (-110)
New York
E. Manning - Total Completions
23½ - OVER (-110)
23½ - UNDER (-110)
E. Manning – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-130)
1½ - UNDER (+110)
O. Beckham, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
85½ - OVER (-110)
85½ - UNDER (-110)
Bengals, Giants square off
By Sportsbook.ag
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. New York Giants (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cincinnati (-1); Total Set at 47.5
This MNF line has already seen plenty of movement this week as the New York Giants opened up in the -3 range, as there still appears to be very few believers in Eli and company. The Bengals do have that angle that every better loves to back in that they are coming off their bye week, but I wouldn't be so quick to jump on that angle here as it looks like everyone has been quick to do.
The Bengals are a team that have definitely underperformed relative to their preseason expectations and while there still is time for this team to turn it around, just one win in their last four contests is a quite worrisome if I was looking to back the Bengals here.
New York enters this prime time showdown having won three straight and are right back on the Cowboys heels in the NFC East. QB Eli Manning still had some turnover issues in the win vs. Philly last week, and the Giants are still searching for a running game, but to see bettors flock to go against a team on a three-game winning streak is a little surprising.
It's even more surprising when you see that the Bengals have only beaten a winless Cleveland team and Miami – before they got hot – since Week 2. Cincinnati is also 0-3 SU and ATS in road games since Week 2 and that's what makes this line move so intriguing.
Are bettors unwilling to let go of their preseason projections of Cincinnati competing for an AFC North crown? Are they simply supporting the rested team here? Are all the Bengals bets more of a play against the Giants? Or is it a combination of all those factors and even more?
For bettors that haven't touched or broken down this game yet, it's nearly impossible to take the Bengals now. All the line value is gone with this game moving to basically a pick'em and we will likely see some buyback on this game by the time Monday rolls around.
Yet, I have a tough time believing this move in the first place as Marvin Lewis is arguably one of the worst coaches in the league in terms of clock management, game planning, and predictability with play-calling in downs and distance, and it feels like the rest of the league has finally caught on to that 100%.
Lewis has kept his post as the head man in Cincinnati this long in spite of himself as he's had been bailed out by quite a bit of talent around him – on the field and in the coaching ranks – as there are three of his recent former assistant coaches now leading teams:
Mike Zimmer (Minnesota), Jay Gruden (Washington), and Hue Jackson (Cleveland). Jackson has had a rough year in across the state in Ohio, but the Browns simply don't have NFL-calibre talent on their roster.
Zimmer and Gruden have taken their respective clubs to the playoffs recently, and without any of those guys around anymore in Cincinnati, this 3-4-1 SU team might be the true reflection of a Marvin Lewis coached squad when he doesn't have quality help.
Secondly, betting against streaks is a risky proposition and with this line now at pick'em, you would be betting against New York's three-game winning streak. For all the turnovers Eli has caused, and all the lack of luck the Giants defense has had in forcing turnovers – especially recovering fumbles, this team is still finding ways to win. For years the Giants typically would find ways to lose these tight games (aside from their Super Bowl years) and this year is shaping up much differently.
One week it's the offense making a clutch late drive to close out things like when they beat Baltimore a few weeks back, and last week it was the defense stepping up in the final minutes to finish off the Eagles. The perception of the Giants may still be overwhelmingly negative, hence the line move already on this contest, but the win/loss column says otherwise.
If you've followed along with my NFL betting previews all season long you'll know I'm never afraid to go against the consensus, and this looks to be another one of those games. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record and with the Giants at home in a prime time atmosphere you've got to like their chances.
If this game was in Cincinnati, this new line suggests that the Bengals would be -6 or -7 against New York and that's absurd.
MNF Top Prop Bets
By Sportsbook.ag
The Bengals and Giants conclude Week 10 action tonight and it should be a good game with each side looking to improve their positioning in their respective playoff races. The loser of tonight's game will have to make up some serious ground over the final seven weeks and neither side wants to be put in that position. Sportsbooks have already seen plenty of action on this game with the line flipping from the Bengals opening as a small underdog to being listed as a small favorite, but there are a couple of prop bets I'm looking to attack for some extra action on this game.
Jeremy Hill Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (+140)
The Giants are actually one of the stingier run stopping units in the league with just 93.9 rushing yards allowed per game (8th in NFL), but for someone like me who's got a strong lean on the 'under' on tonight's total, I do believe we see plenty of rushing attempts from both sides. Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill is still receiving the bulk of the carries for the Bengals and has started to turn up his production after a very slow start to the year.
Hill has rushed for 76 and 168 yards in his last two games after only rushing for 70 or more yards twice in his first six games. This game likely won't be a Giants blowout win so the Bengals aren't going to abandon the run like they have in other losses, and should they be leading in the 2nd half as many bettors believe having pushed the Bengals to a favorite tonight, Hill will be called upon to salt away the clock.
In two of the Giants three losses this year an opposing starting RB has had 80+ yards and Hill is more than capable of doing the same. He should see about 15-20 carries this evening and should that number reach the high end, an average of 3.75 yards per carry is all we'll need to cash this ticket.
If you are more inclined to bigger risk, Hill over 99.5 rushing yards pays out at +350 and should be worth consideration too.
Total FG's Made by Both Teams Over 3.5 (-110)
While more than 80% of the bets made on tonight's total are on the 'over,' I mentioned earlier that this could end up being a lower-scoring game than most expect. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and that extra week of rest tends to help defensive players heal some bumps and bruises and get back out there and fly around to the ball. New York's defense ended up saving the victory last week for the team and have actually done fairly well overall with no opponent ever putting 30+ on them yet.
That's not to say that either side won't be able to move the ball though as Dalton and Manning have two of the best WR's in the game at their disposal in A.J Green and Odell Beckham Jr, but we could very well see many of these drives stall out in the red zone. The Giants are #1 in the NFL in opponent red zone scoring percentage (TD's) at 39.29 %, so they are well-versed in forcing teams to take the points from their kicker.
Two field goals a side cashes this wager in what should be a tight game the entire way where every point matters. Trusting kickers to make these things is a bit tougher in the NFL these days, but Bengals kicker Mike Nugent is 14-19 on the year and that's good for a 1.75/game average of field goals made.
The wind, which has been known to create chaos for Giants home games in the past will be a minimal factor tonight in what should be an unseasonably warm night. That's always good news for kickers and it will likely help us cash this ticket as well.