NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
ATLANTA (5 - 4) at SEATTLE (6 - 3) - 11/20/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
NFL Week 11
Titans (6-3) @ Steelers (7-2) — Steelers are quiet 7-2; they won last four games (3-1 vs spread), are 2-1 as a home favorite, with wins by 17-15 points and a loss to Jaguars. Tennessee won its last four games, last three by 3-3-4 points; Mariota is banged up (shoulder/ankle)- check status. Titans are 2-2 on road, losing at Houston, Miami, beating Jaguars/Browns- they were favored in 3 of those 4 games. Steelers won four of last six series games; Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to Steel City, losing by 27-3-21 points. AFC North favorites are 4-7 vs spread outside the division, 3-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-4, 4-3 on road. Over is 6-2 in Titans’ last eight games; under is 8-1 in Steeler games this season.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Week 11
Falcons (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-3) — In its last five games, Atlanta lost field position by 9-7-11-16-3 yards; they’re 3-2 on road, losing 23-7 in Foxboro, 20-17 at Carolina. Seattle won five of its last six games; they’re 1-3 as a home favorite, winning home games by 3-28-3 points, with a 17-14 loss to Washington. Falcons won five of last seven series games; they whacked Seattle 36-20 in playoffs last year, after losing 36-20 here during regular season. Teams split last six series games played here. Atlanta lost four of last six games; NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread, 2-2-1 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total, as have four of Seahawks’ last five games.
Armadillosports.com
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Falcons at Seahawks
Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 45.5)
The Seattle Seahawks spent much of the days following their last victory grousing about playing on a short week, but there will be no such complaints when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Seattle will be playing for the first time since losing All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman for the season in a win over Arizona on Nov. 9.
The Seahawks, who are one game behind the first-place Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West, suffered a rash of injuries in their matchup at Arizona -- the most prominent being the ruptured Achilles sustained by Sherman. "It's definitely going to be weird," Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner said of playing without lock-down corner Sherman. "I've never played a game without Richard. He's definitely going to be missed." Atlanta, which had lost four of five before dominating Dallas last weekend, also is expected to be without a marquee player after running back Devonta Freeman sustained a concussion against the Cowboys. It will be a rematch of last season's NFC Divisional Round playoff matchup, won by the Falcons 36-20 behind three touchdown passes from reigning league MVP Matt Ryan.
POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-1.5) - Seahawks (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -4.
LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 3-point home chalk against the defending NFC champions and money coming in on the Falcons has seen that number drop to -1.5. The total hit the board at 45 and is up slightly to 46.
INJURY REPORT:
Falcons - WR Julio Jones (Probable, Ankle), G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Knee), P Matt Bosher (Questionable, Ankle), DT Grady Jarrett (Questionable, Knee), RB Terron Ward, Questionable, Knee), S Quincy Mauger (Questionable, Knee), RB Devonta Freeman (Out, Concussion).
Seahawks - QB Russell Wilson (Probable, Jaw), DE Frank Clark (Probable, Thigh), RB Eddie Lacy (Probable, Groin), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Knee), S Earl Thomas (Probable, Hamstring), DE Michael Bennett (Questionable, Heel), G Luke Joeckel (Questionable, Knee), DE Marcus Smith (Questionable, Concussion), DT Jarran Reed (Questionable, Hamstring), DE Duane Brown (Questionable, Ankle), LB Michael Wilhoite (Questionable, Calf), CB Shaquill Griffin (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kam Chancellor (Out For Season, Neck), RB C.J. Prosise (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (Questionable, Concussion), RB Chris Carson (Questionable Week 14, Knee), CB Richard Sherman (I-R, Achilles).
ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Atlanta is averaging a dozen points fewer than last season's league-leading average of 33.8 and had failed to score more than 17 in its last four losses before posting its highest point total since Week 3. Backup Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a season-high 83 yards after Freeman was injured early last week, ran for 57 yards on 11 carries and had a receiving score in last season's playoff win over Seattle. With Sherman out, expect Ryan to make a concerted effort to get the ball into the hands of star wideout Julio Jones, who has 49 catches but has reached the end zone only once. Defensive end Adrian Clayborn is coming off a monster game with a franchise-record six sacks.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Sherman is not the only member of Seattle's vaunted secondary that could be out -- safety Kam Chancellor suffered neck stingers in the last game and was still being evaluated, although fellow safely Earl Thomas is expected to return after missing two games (hamstring). Running back Eddie Lacy is expected to return after sitting out one week with a groin injury, but the ground game has been ineffective since rookie Chris Carson was lost for the season. Russell Wilson has carried the offense, leading the NFC with 2,543 yards while throwing for 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. Doug Baldwin has a team-high 54 catches while tight end Jimmy Graham has six TDs in the past five games.
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Falcons at a rate of 52 percent and the Over is getting 63 of the totals action.
MNF - Falcons at Seahawks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) won for the first time at Mercedes Benz Stadium since Week 2 as Atlanta trounced Dallas, 27-7 to easily cash as 3½-point favorites. Atlanta also covered for the first time in six games as quarterback Matt Ryan connected on a pair of short touchdown passes, while the Falcons’ defense yielded 233 yards to the Cowboys. Ryan put together an efficient 22-of-29 passing performance for 215 yards, while running back Tevin Coleman rushed for 83 yards on 20 carries and one touchdown.
Atlanta put together its best defensive effort of the season by allowing single-digit points for the first time since giving up seven points at Tennessee in 2015. Since the 3-0 start to the season, the Falcons own a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS record, but Dan Quinn’s squad has outgained opponents in six of the past seven contests.
The Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) continued their ascent towards the top of the NFC West race behind the surprising Rams by picking up their fifth win in the past six games at Arizona last Thursday. Seattle held off Arizona, 22-16, while pushing as six-point road favorites to improve to 3-0 in the division, including a pair of away victories. Russell Wilson tossed a pair of touchdown passes to go along with 238 yards for Seattle, as he connected with tight end Jimmy Graham on both scores.
Seattle suffered a major loss in the secondary as standout cornerback Richard Sherman was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. In spite of Sherman’s injury, the Seahawks managed to hold their seventh opponent to 18 points or fewer this season, while racking up their third consecutive victory away from CenturyLink Field.
ROAD WOES
Atlanta owns a winning record away from Mercedes Benz Stadium this season at 3-2, but the Falcons have covered only once on the highway. In fact, the Falcons’ lone road cover came at Detroit in Week 3 as three-point favorites, 30-26, as a late Lions’ touchdown was wiped off the board on a questionable tackle at the goal-line. Atlanta was limited to 17 points or fewer in road defeats at Carolina and New England, while rallying to beat the Jets, 25-20 as 6½-point favorites in Week 8. Last season, the Falcons posted a solid 7-2 ATS record on the highway, including a 4-2 ATS mark as an underdog.
HOME SWEET HOME
We know about Seattle’s domination at CenturyLink Field over the years (42-7 since 2012), but the Seahawks haven’t exactly played the greatest competition at home in 2017. Seattle’s three victories have come against San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Houston, who have combined for a 7-22 record on the season. In wins over the 49ers and Texans, Pete Carroll’s squad managed winning margins of three points apiece and failed to cover. In Seattle’s previous home contest against Washington in Week 9, the Redskins stunned the Seahawks, 17-14 as eight-point underdogs.
TOTAL TALK
The high-flying Falcons’ offense has been grounded this season by cashing the UNDER in six of nine games, compared to a 16-2-1 mark to the OVER last season. Atlanta is currently on a 5-1 UNDER run, while hitting the UNDER in five of six games with a closing total below 50. Seattle has finished UNDER the total in four of the past five contests, but its two highest-scoring games of the season came at home with OVERS against Indianapolis (46-18) and Houston (41-38).
SERIES HISTORY
The Falcons and Seahawks split a pair of matchups last season with the home team winning each time. Seattle blew a 17-3 lead in the first matchup at CenturyLink Field in October as Atlanta scored 21 unanswered points to go in front, 24-17. Running back Christine Michael scored a one-yard touchdown, but kicker Steven Hauschka missed the extra point as the Seahawks trailed by one. Hauschka redeemed himself late in the fourth quarter by booting a 44-yard field goal to give Seattle a 26-24 win, but the Falcons cashed as 6½-point underdogs.
Atlanta picked up revenge in the divisional playoffs against Seattle by blasting the Seahawks, 36-20 as 6½-point favorites. Ryan torched the Seattle defense for 338 yards and three touchdown passes, while running back Davonte Freeman picked up 125 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Falcons intercepted Wilson twice, while outscoring the Seahawks, 36-6 after falling behind 7-0 early.
Since 2010, the Falcons have won four of six meetings with the Seahawks, including a 2-1 mark at Seattle in this stretch. Five of these six matchups have eclipsed the total, including in both games last season.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
The Favorite-OVER combination has been money in the bank the last five weeks on Monday night football, while the OVER is 8-3 on Mondays this season. The Falcons have cashed plenty of tickets in Monday action since 2012 by going 5-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in the underdog role. The Falcons have yet to play on a Monday this season, but knocked off the Saints last season, 45-32 as three-point ‘dogs in its lone Monday affair. Under Carroll, the Seahawks own a perfect 7-0 record on Mondays, including a 5-0 mark at CenturyLink Field.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Vince Akins provides a trend to keep an eye on for this contest. “The Falcons are 0-8-1 OU since Sep 14, 2014 as a dog facing a team Matt Ryan threw at least two touchdowns against in a win in their last meeting.” Atlanta has won and covered in four of the past five times in this trend as well, while going UNDER in this situation twice in 2016.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu gives his view from behind the counter, “Action has poured in on Atlanta over the last 48 hours, which has forced a 1.5-point drop. The injury bug has bit Seattle’s secondary in a big way, and the bettors have reacted. Currently, we have 65 percent of the bets on the Falcons and 70 percent of the money on that side as well. This will likely close at a pick ‘em.”