NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 21st, 2016
HOUSTON (6 - 3) vs. OAKLAND (7 - 2) - 11/21/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston at Oakland
Houston: 19-8 ATS in road games in November
Oakland: 6-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread
NFL Week 11
Texans (6-3) vs Raiders (7-2) — Oakland won six of last seven games, covered last three, scoring 93 points (10 TDs on last 37 drives). Raiders ran ball for 163.3 yds/game last three games- both their losses this year came at home. Texans got first road win in Jacksonville last week; they’re 1-3 away from home, with all three losses by 18+ points- they’re 2-2 as an underdog this year. Oakland is 7-2 despite being favored in only three of nine games (1-2 as a favorite). Houston won six of last nine series games. Raiders are 2-11 in last 13 post-bye games but they covered last four. AFC South teams are 6-8 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-6 as non-divisional favorites. Over is 7-2 in Oakland games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.
Armadillosports.com
MNF - Texans vs. Raiders
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 11 card wraps up south of the border as the NFL heads to Mexico City, Mexico for a key AFC matchup between the Raiders and Texans. Oakland is listed as the home team in this contest although Houston is closer to Mexico City. The Raiders are fresh off the bye week sitting atop the AFC West, while the Texans are leading the AFC South in spite of inconsistent play at the quarterback position.
LAST WEEK
The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) finally won their first road game following an 0-3 start away from NRG Stadium. Houston held off Jacksonville, 24-21 to cash as 2½-point underdogs, even though quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for only 99 yards. Osweiler did connect on a pair of touchdown passes with fringe tight ends Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson, while Kareem Jackson returned an interception 47 yards for the opening score of the game. The Texans improved to 3-0 inside the AFC South, while scoring more points at Jacksonville (24) than they did in their previous three road losses combined (22).
Oakland (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) had the week off in Week 10, but the Raiders dominated the Broncos, 30-20 two weeks ago at home. The Raiders picked up their third consecutive victory as running back Latavius Murray scored three touchdowns and racked up 114 yards. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for a career-high 513 yards the game prior in an overtime triumph at Tampa Bay, but Denver held Carr to a season-low 184 yards through the air, his second game this season throwing for 200 yards or less. The Raiders picked up their first home cover of the season in four tries, while improving to 3-9 ATS since the start of 2015 at the Coliseum.
POINTS APLENTY
Whenever the Raiders take the field, expect the scoreboard to light up. For the exception of two games in which Oakland was limited to 17 points or fewer, the Raiders have posted OVERS in seven of nine contests. The Silver and Black has scored at least 28 points seven times, while losing only once when eclipsing this point mark (Week 2 against Atlanta in 35-28 defeat).
Last season, the Raiders cashed the OVER in three of the first four games away from the Black Hole, but finished 3-0-1 to the UNDER in the last four road contests. Even though Oakland is the home team on Monday, we’ll look at their away numbers as Jack Del Rio’s squad is 4-1 to the OVER in five games away from the Coliseum.
NON-DIVISION NONSENSE
The Texans have compiled a terrific 6-1 record against AFC South opponents on the road since Bill O’Brien took over as head coach in 2014. However, Houston has struggled on the highway against non-division foes in this stretch by posting a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record, including an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season. Two of those victories came in the underdog role with one of those wins at Cincinnati last season as a 10-point ‘dog in a 10-6 Monday night triumph. The third victory came against, you guessed it, the Raiders back in 2014.
SERIES HISTORY
The last time these teams faced off was in Week 2 of the 2014 campaign in Oakland as the Texans roughed up the Raiders, 30-14 as three-point road favorites. The Houston defense intercepted Carr twice, while Oakland held the ball for a shade over 21 minutes. Oakland won the previous two meetings in Houston in 2011 and 2013, but the Raiders have lost six of nine lifetime matchups with the Texans since 2004.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Raiders as 5½-point favorites, but that number has moved up slightly to 6 heading into Monday. The total opened at 46 as that number has lowered to 45 at the Westgate, but a handful of books have kept the 46 number.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the quarterback advantage obviously lies with the Raiders, but he breaks down some stunning numbers on Houston’s signal-caller, “Carr is rated as a top 10 quarterback despite a heavy workload of pass attempts as he has one of the lowest interception rates of all-time going in his young career, including just three in 354 attempts so far this season. Osweiler has nine interceptions this season and his QB rating ranks 31st in the NFL, only ahead of since-benched starters Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick among qualified players. Osweiler has completed just over 58 percent of his passes and his 5.6 yards per attempt rate is the very worst in the NFL.”
However, the Texans have fattened up against weak competition according to Nelson, “Statistically there is a huge edge for Houston defensively in this matchup with the Texans eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, but the schedule rates among the weaker slates in the league and only a Week 2 win over Kansas City at this point rates as a high quality win for the Texans. The Texans have been out-gained in four of the last five contests despite winning three of those games and the lone game in that run where Houston had a yardage edge was the miraculous overtime win over Indianapolis.”
PROPS
Houston
B. Osweiler - Total Gross Passing Yards
232½ - OVER (-110)
232½ - UNDER (-110)
B. Osweiler – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (+115)
1½ - UNDER (-135)
L. Miller – Total Rushing Yards
80½ - OVER (-110)
80½ - UNDER (-110)
Oakland
D. Carr – Total Completions
24½ - OVER (-110)
24½ - UNDER (-110)
D. Carr – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (+120)
2 – UNDER (-140)
Will A. Cooper score a touchdown?
YES (+120)
NO (-140)
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders (-6, 45)
The NFL returns to Mexico City for the first time in 11 years when the Oakland Raiders square off against the Houston Texans on Monday night in a battle of AFC division leaders. While the Raiders are listed as the home team, they may not mind playing across the border since they are 5-0 away from Oakland this season.
“We kind of expect it to be like a road game for the offense and special teams and home game for the defense in that our crowd is going to be really loud,” Raiders coach Jack Del Rio told reporters. Surging Oakland entered its bye with a three-game winning streak punctuated by a 30-20 victory over reigning Super Bowl champion Denver. Houston posted its first road win of the season with a 24-21 triumph at Jacksonville to open a 1 1/2-game lead in the AFC South. The Texans, winners of two straight, had been outscored 85-22 in losing their first three away from home.
LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened the betting week as 5.5-point neutral site favorites and the public has bet them up slightly to their current number of -6. The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and has dropped down to 45 as of Sunday evening. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper-50's for Monday night's game in Mexico City. Wind should not be a factor and the POP is at 1 percent.
INJURY REPORT:
Texans - RB L. Miller (Probable, ankle), NT V. Wilfork (Probable, groin), CB A. Bouye (Probable, ankle), T D. Brown (Questionable, knee), T C. Clark (Questionable, hip), DE J. Clowney (Questionable, wrist), S E. Pleasant (Questionable, neck), LB J. Simon (Questionable, shoulder), LB B. Peters (Questionable, quadricep), WR W. Fuller (Questionable, leg), RB J. Grimes (Questionable, illness), WR J. Strong (Out, ankle), RB A. Blue (Out, calf), DE J. Watt (Out For Season, back).
Raiders - CB S. Smith (Probable, shoulder), WR A. Cooper (Probable, back), RB L. Murray (Probable, ankle), DT S. McGee (Questionable, ankle), G V. Alexander (Questionable, ankle), LB A. Smith (Out Indefinitely, suspension), DE M. Edwards (Questionable, hip).
ABOUT THE TEXANS (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Brock Osweiler threw for a pair of touchdowns but only 99 yards at Jacksonville and has registered only 416 passing yards over his last three games. With Osweiler continuing to struggle, Houston leaned on its running game to carry the offense as Lamar Miller, the team's other marquee free-agent signing, rushed for 83 yards to spark an attack that produced a season-high 181. DeAndre Hopkins had 111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 TDs last season, but he's been limited to 56 yards or fewer in seven of the nine games. The Texans rank fourth in total defense, giving up 317.4 yards per game.
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Oakland is averaging 31 points during its three-game winning streak and is 6-1 in its last seven, tying it with Kansas City for first place in the AFC West. Derek Carr has been the driving force for the offense with 17 scoring passes and three interceptions, but he played a supporting role against the Broncos. While Carr failed to throw a TD pass for the first time and finished with a season-low 184 yards, running back Latavius Murray rambled for 114 yards and three scores. Defensive end Khalil Mack has recorded two sacks in back-to-back games and a total of six in the last four contests, boosting his season total to seven.
TRENDS:
* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
* Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games overall.
CONSENSUS: The favorite Raiders are picking 69 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 66 percent of the total action.
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders
This Monday Night'r comes to us from Mexico City where the Oakland Raiders square off against the Houston Texans. Oakland has opened -6.0 point favorites for good reason. The Raiders off a bye are averaging 27.2 points/game behind QB Derek Carr's 17 TD's vs 3 Int and come in ridding a three game win streak including a 30-20 victory over reigning Super Bowl champion Denver in its last effort. Although, Raiders are listed as the home team in this clash playing away from Oakland Coliseum suits them just fine. In their five games this season away from the frienzied home crowd they're 5-0 SU/ATS. Dating back to last year the squad has a 7-1 SU record with a sparkling 8-0 mark against the betting line away from the Coliseum. One final betting nugget, Raiders have thrived against the betting line last four after a bye going 4-0 ATS.
The Texans notching just 17.9 per/contest behind QB Brock Osweiler tossing 11 TD's vs 9 Int have won two straight after picking up their first road win last week defeating Jacksonville 24-21 cashing as 3-point road underdogs. Well to note the offensively challenged Houston squad are in a tough betting spot. The Texans are a vig losing 4-4-1 ATS in the second of back-2-back road games, 0-3-1 after beating Jaguars, 1-7-1 ATS away vs a team with winning percentage of .666% or greater.