NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 28th, 2016.
GREEN BAY (4 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/28/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Green Bay: 2-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 4-0 ATS in home lined games
NFL Week 12
Packers (4-6) @ Eagles (5-5) — Philly won/covered all four of its home games, winning by 14-31-11-9 points, but they’re 2-5 overall since a 3-0 start, averaging less than six yards/pass attempt in five of last six games. Green Bay lost its last four games, allowing 153 points, worst 4-game stretch for Packer defense since 1958 (year before Lombardi arrived). Pack lost its last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; this is also their third straight road game, a historically soft spot for NFL teams. Packers won four of last five series games, with last meeting a 53-20 beatdown at Lambeau in 2014- they won last two visits here, both in ‘10. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-2. Under is 4-0 in Eagle games this year; last four Green Bay games went over total.
Armadillosports.com
MNF - Packers at Eagles
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Both the Packers and Eagles are sitting outside the NFC Wild Card race heading into December. The two NFC squads meet up in Philadelphia on Monday night looking to rebound from losses last week, as Green Bay is trying to end a four-game losing skid. The Eagles have been terrific at home by posting a 4-0 mark at Lincoln Financial Field, as they attempt to keep their home defensive domination going.
LAST WEEK
The Packers (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) lost not only their fourth consecutive game at Washington, but dropped to 1-4 away from Lambeau Field. The Redskins routed the Packers, 42-24 as three-point favorites as Green Bay allowed over 42 points for the second consecutive week. Washington outgained Green Bay, 515-424, even though Aaron Rodgers threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat. Rodgers put up great fantasy numbers in the last two losses (351 vs. Washington and 371 vs. Tennessee), but the Packers’ defense has been carved up resulting in four straight OVERS.
The Eagles (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) continued their road struggles as well by falling at Seattle as 6½-point underdogs, 26-15. After Philadelphia took a 7-6 second quarter lead on a Carson Wentz touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, the Seahawks outscored the Eagles, 20-8 the rest of the way to send the Eagles to its fifth away loss of the season. Wentz has thrown four interceptions in his last two road losses to the Seahawks and Giants, while Philadelphia was limited to its fewest points in a game this season.
HOME COOKING
Philadelphia has struggled on the road in Wentz’s rookie season, but the Eagles are unbeaten at Lincoln Financial Field by posting a 4-0 SU/ATS record. In the four wins, the Eagles have allowed a total of 38 points, as Philadelphia has finished UNDER the total in each home contest. All four victories have come by at least nine points, while holding the Falcons to a season-low 15 points two weeks ago.
PACKING IT AWAY
Last season, the Packers won six of 10 games away from Lambeau Field. However, Green Bay hasn’t won a road game this season since a Week 1 triumph at Jacksonville, 27-23. The OVER has hit in four of five away contests for Green Bay, while allowing at least 23 points in four of five road games. The Packers have covered five of their last seven in the role of a road underdog since the 2014 NFC Championship game, but three of those ATS wins came in the playoffs.
SERIES HISTORY
From 2003 through 2014, the Eagles and Packers hooked up 10 times as Philadelphia captured six matchups. These teams last met in November 2014 at Lambeau Field as the Packers routed the Eagles, 53-20 to cash easily as 4½-point favorites. Rodgers picked apart the Philadelphia defense for 341 yards and three touchdown passes, while wide receiver Jordy Nelson hauled in four passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Green Bay is making its first trip to Lincoln Financial Field since the Wild Card round in the 2010 season. The Packers eliminated the Eagles, 21-16 as Rodgers tossed three touchdowns in their first playoff win en route to capturing Super Bowl XLV.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles as a three-point favorite, shaded to -120. That number has moved up with Philadelphia now laying 3½, while several offshore books, including 5Dimes and Sportsbook.ag has the Eagles listed as a four-point favorite. The total is floating all over the board with numbers between 47 and 48.
MONDAY NIGHT MEMORIES
The Packers have split their last four Monday night games, but are playing on the road on a Monday for the first time since 2012. Many football fans will remember that controversial finish when Green Bay lost on the Hail Mary pass at Seattle, 14-12 as three-point road favorites. The Eagles are playing their second Monday night game this season after routing the Bears in Week 2 by a 29-14 count. Philadelphia has won five of its past six Monday nighters since 2013, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field.
KEY TREND
VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins provides a trend that favors the Packers on Monday. According to Akins, the Eagles are 0-13 ATS (-7.85 ppg) since 2011 as a favorite of less than six points when facing a team averaging less than 25 rushes per game. Green Bay has carried the ball 19 times or fewer in each of the last four games.
PROPS
Green Bay
A. Rodgers – Gross Passing Yards
285½ - OVER (-110)
285½ - UNDER (-110)
A. Rodgers – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (EVEN)
2 – UNDER (-120)
J. Nelson – Will he score a touchdown?
YES -145
NO +125
Philadelphia
C. Wentz – Total Completions
23½ - OVER (-110)
23½ - UNDER (-110)
C. Wentz – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-130)
1½ - UNDER (+110)
J. Matthews – Total Receiving Yards
66½ - OVER (-110)
66½ - UNDER (-110)
Green Bay is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 gamesGreen Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 gamesThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 gamesGreen Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the roadGreen Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the roadThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the roadGreen Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing PhiladelphiaGreen Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing PhiladelphiaThe total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing PhiladelphiaGreen Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against PhiladelphiaGreen Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against PhiladelphiaThe total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles have betting trends in their favor. Philadelphia surrendering only 38 points in its four home games are 4-0 ATS as host this season. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games, 3-0 ATS home vs NFC North and 6-2 ATS laying -4.5 or less at home. One the other side, Packers' defense carved up for 31 or more points in each of the four losse are 0-6 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Packers have covered jus one last five away under Monday Night Light's, have a 0-4 ATS skid in B-2-B road games and are 2-4 ATS away vs NFC East.
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 47.5)
The early-season hype surrounding rookie Carson Wentz has quieted down, but the whispers are growing louder around two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers' inability to stop his team's maddening slump. Both quarterbacks will be trying to keep their teams in the playoff chase when Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles host Rodgers and the sliding Green Bay Packers on Monday night.
The Eagles have dropped five of seven since No. 2 overall draft pick Wentz led them to a 3-0 start, slipping into last place in the NFC East. Still, the Eagles are right on the heels of division rival Washington (6-4-1) for the final playoff spot in the conference and also own a 4-0 record at home, including victories over Atlanta and Minnesota in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Packers are in the midst of a spectacular four-game slide during which they have allowed a staggering 153 points, but Rodgers is maintaining a positive outlook. "I feel like we can run the table, I really do," Rodgers said. "You just feel like it just takes one (win). We get one under our belts, things might start rolling for us and we can run the table."
LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 3.5-point home favorites and, despite a brief rise to -4, the spread currently sits on the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 48, dropped a full point to 47 and currently sits at 47.5. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40's for kickoff on Monday evening - not too bad for late November in Philly. There will be a light breeze (3-4 mph) that will not be a factor.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams are struggling after decent starts this season. Green Bay has gone just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) after a 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) start, while Philadelphia has gone just 2-5 SU/ATS after their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Both teams are struggling to throw the ball as the Packers are averaging only 6.3 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 6.7 ypp), while the Eagles average just 6.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.8 ypp)." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Packers - LB J. Ryan (Probable, ankle), CB D. Randall (Questionable, groin), LB K. Fackrell (Questionable, hamstring), C J. Tretter (Questionable, knee), G T. Lang (Questionable, ankle), T D. Barclay (Questionable, shoulder), S K. Bice (Questionable, back), LB B. Martinez (Out, knee), CB D. Goodson (Out, knee), CB M. Dorleant (Questionable, undisclosed), CB S. Shields (I-R, concussion), RB E. Lacy (I-R, ankle), RB D. Jackson (I-R, knee), RB J. Crockett (I-R, shoulder).
Eagles - CB L. McKelvin (Probable, concussion), DE C. Barwin (Probable, undisclosed), RB D. Sproles (Probable, ribs), DE S. Means (Questionable, illness), DT T. Hart (Questionable, ankle), S T. Brooks (Questionable, hamstring), DT F. Cox (Questionable, undisclosed), RB R. Matthews (Out, knee), T H. Vaitai (Out, knee), T L. Johnson (Elig Week 16, suspension), CB R. Brooks (I-R, quadricep), LB J. Walker (I-R, knee), DE A. McCalister (I-R, calf).
ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Following narrow losses to Atlanta and Indianapolis by a combined six points, Green Bay's defense has been carved up for 89 points by Tennessee and Washington in the first two stops of its three-game road trip. With the Packers having failed to force a turnover in three of the last four defeats, defensive coordinator Dom Capers told reporters: "You just keep working at it. ... We know how to do it, we’ve done it for quite a while around here, but we’re not getting it done right now." Green Bay is hopeful that Christine Michael, claimed off waivers from Seattle, will be ready to bolster a sagging running game with a full week of practice. Rodgers continues to put up solid numbers with 15 TD passes and three interceptions in his last five games.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): It's hardly a surprise that Wentz has been unable to sustain his hot start, given the dearth of playmakers at wide receiver and a spotty running game. Wentz threw seven touchdown passes against one interception in his first four games, but those numbers have changed with four scoring tosses and six picks in the last six contests. Wentz has thrown for more than 238 yards just once in his last seven games, with wideout Jordan Matthews his favorite target with 53 receptions and three touchdowns. Ryan Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta on Nov. 13, but he injured his knee in last week's loss at Seattle and is not expected to play. Philadelphia has surrendered only 38 points in its four home games.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Eagles last 9 games in Week 12.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The home favorite Philadelphia Eagles are picking up 58 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 76 percent of the Over/Under wagers.