NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
NFL Week 9
Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3) — Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn’t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt— Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers’ absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn’t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.
Armadillosports.com
MNF - Lions at Packers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Lions (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) dropped their third straight game following a 3-1 start in a 20-15 home defeat to the Steelers as three-point underdogs. Detroit failed to reach the end zone as kicker Matt Prater knocked down five field goals, while the Lions couldn’t convert a fourth and goal at the one-yard line down 13-12. Four plays later, Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with rookie standout Juju Smith-Schuster on a 97-yard touchdown strike to give the Steelers a 20-12 lead which held up.
Amazingly, the Lions didn’t score a touchdown in spite of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 423-yard passing effort. Stafford rebounded from a three-interception performance in a Week 6 setback at New Orleans, while getting intercepted only once in five home games. Marvin Jones, Jr. hauled in six catches for 128 yards, but the Lions’ rushing game didn’t get going by racking up 71 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, Detroit did as much as it could against a talented Pittsburgh offense by limiting the Steelers to 392 yards, which included the dreaded 97-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.
The Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) are back from the bye week following a Week 7 home loss to the Saints. Green Bay began life without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss at Minnesota that has him sidelined indefinitely. Brett Hundley made his first start against New Orleans, but there was an obvious drop-off as the former UCLA quarterback threw for only 87 yards and was intercepted once.
Green Bay held a 14-7 lead following a Hundley 14-yard touchdown run, but the Saints outscored the Packers the rest of the way, 19-3 as New Orleans accumulated 485 yards. Running back Aaron Jones broke the 100-yard mark for the second time in three weeks by compiling 131 yards on 17 carries to go along with a touchdown, but the Packers have scored 27 points in the last two games since consecutive 35-point performances in Weeks 4 and 5.
MOTOR CITY CHALK
For only the second time this season, the Lions will be laying points. Detroit fell short in its first favorite opportunity in a 27-24 home setback to Carolina in Week 5 as two-point chalk. Jim Caldwell’s team was favored only once away from Ford Field last season, dropping a 17-14 decision at Chicago as three-point favorites. The last time Detroit won when laying points on the highway came at Chicago in the season finale of 2016, while owning a 6-7 ATS record as a favorite since the start of 2015.
NO AARON, NO PROBLEM?
Actually, it is a problem when Rodgers isn’t in the lineup for the Packers. In 2013 when Rodgers injured his left shoulder in a Week 9 loss to the Bears, Green Bay went on to 2-4-1 record the next seven games, including home losses to the Eagles and Steelers, to go along with a tie against Minnesota. In those defeats to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Packers were listed as a home underdog. Green Bay actually won as a home ‘dog against Seattle last season, but the Packers last won in this role without Rodgers in the lineup coming in the 2011 season finale – against the Lions.
SERIES HISTORY
The Lions haven’t had much luck at Lambeau Field over the years by losing 25 of the last 26 visits to Wisconsin since a December victory in 1991 to help them win the NFC Central. The only time Detroit has won in the last quarter-century at Green Bay came in 2015 as a 10 ½-point underdog, 18-16.
Last season, the Packers swept the Lions in a pair of high-scoring affairs won by seven points each. In the first matchup last September, Green Bay built a 31-3 advantage before Detroit roared back by outscoring the Packers, 24-3 the rest of the way. However, the Packers picked up a 34-27 victory as 6½-point favorites, paced by four Rodgers touchdown passes. Stafford tried to keep up by tossing three touchdowns, including two to Marvin Jones, who hauled in 205 yards in the loss.
In the final meeting in Detroit in Week 17, the Packers held off the Lions, 31-24 as 3½-point favorites, highlighted by another four touchdown passing game by Rodgers. Stafford fell to 3-10 in his career against the Packers in spite of 347 yards passing and two touchdown tosses.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
Detroit is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after winning at New York in Week 2 over the Giants, 24-10 as three-point underdogs. Since 2015, the Lions have split four Monday night games, but have compiled a 3-1 ATS record. Dating back to 2014, the Packers are a perfect 3-0 in Monday action, while playing in its first Monday game this season.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson weighs in on this matchup, “These are below average statistical teams with the Lions ranked 19th and the Packers sitting 23rd in the league rankings in total offense despite both teams being in the top 11 in scoring. The scoring and total defense numbers are nearly identical at this point in the season as well heading into the season’s first meeting with these teams set to meet in Detroit in Week 17.”
It will be tough for the Packers to keep their heads above water without Rodgers, as Nelson looks at what lies ahead for Green Bay, “The prognosis of Rodgers is still being determined with some hope that he could return for the final three weeks of the regular season. For that to happen, the Packers would need to have meaningful games in the final three weeks and Hundley will need to guide Green Bay to a few wins in a relatively favorable schedule in November and early December outside of a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 12.”
The Packers will have to focus on the run to be successful with Hundley under center, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “With Hundley leading the offense, the Packers seem likely to run the ball more often and against New Orleans in Hundley’s first start, the Packers gained 181 yards rushing though on only 24 carries. Detroit actually allows only 3.6 yards per rush this season for the fourth- lowest average in the league, but those strong numbers are in part of factor of Detroit allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt for one of the worst pass defenses in the league.”
From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out an OVER system that applies to Green Bay, “The Packers are 10-0 OU since November 6, 2016 facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game.” Four of those OVERS came this season already, including in home victories over Cincinnati and Chicago.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Every time we’ve taken some smart money on Detroit, and move to -2.5, we get the same on the other side and drop back to the opener of -2. At this point, 60 percent of the handle is on the road chalk. Public is somewhat split on the decision, with a few more backing the Pack. If this spread moves anywhere, I’d expect it will move toward the Lions.”
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Packers
Covers.com
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.
Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”
POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0) - Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1
LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013." - Marc Lawrence.
INJURY REPORT:
Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).
Packers - TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)
ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).
ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.
CONSENSUS: The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.