NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, November 7th, 2016
BUFFALO (4 - 4) at SEATTLE (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/7/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BUFFALO vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo at Seattle
Buffalo: 12-26 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Seattle: 30-16 ATS in home games in non-conference games
NFL Week 9
Bills (4-4) @ Seahawks (4-2-1) — Bills are 2-14 in game before their last 16 byes (5-4 vs spread as an underdog); they’re 4-1 this year when allowing less than 20 points, 0-3 when giving up 20+- they allowed 28-41 points in losses to Dolphins/Patriots last two weeks. Seahawks’ offense is struggling, with one offensive TD on 20 drives in last two games. Wilson is a great QB when he is mobile; he is playing hurt now, had 3 rushes for 11 yards in Superdome LW. Seattle is 23-13 in last 36 games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year; they’re 7-5 in this series, hammering Bills 50-17 in last meeting, which was in Toronto four years ago. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. NFC West favorites are 3-5, 2-3 at home. Six of last seven Bills games went over total; under is 4-3 in Seattle games.
Armadillosports.com
Bills travel to Seattle
By Sportsbook.ag
Buffalo (4-4 SU; 4-4 ATS) vs. Seattle (4-2-1 SU; 3-4 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Seattle (-7); Total set at 43.5
Two slumping teams from different conferences meet on MNF this week and both would love to come away with the victory to revitalize their spirits heading into the second half of the season. Buffalo has lost two in a row after winning four straight and the euphoria from that four-game winning streak got slapped right out of Bills fans last week when Tom Brady and the Patriots dominated them from start to finish.
Seattle is 0-1-1 SU in their last two, but both of those games came on the road and being back at home should sooth some of the pain. The Seahawks still have a major concern with the play of their offensive line, and offense in general, but this Bills team has allowed 28+ during their two-game losing streak and facing this Bills defense might be exactly what the Seahawks need to see right now.
Yet, the biggest issue when breaking down this game is whether or not Bills RB LeSean McCoy will take the field. McCoy is 6th in the NFL in rushing yards with 598, but he's also missed a game plus and has put up those numbers on just 112 carries. Every RB ahead of him in total yardage has at least 153 rush attempts, so it's not hard to see just how important McCoy is to this Bills offense.
McCoy averages 5.34 yards per carry which is the best average for any RB that's been the starter the entire year (Jay Ajayi in Miami is at 6.29 but only recently became the starter), and as a team the Bills get 5.5 yards per rush attempt on the year. That's a solid number overall, but the bulk of that is because of McCoy and if he can't go, the Bills could be in trouble.
Seattle has their own injury concern as well that is directly correlated with McCoy and Buffalo's running attack with DE Michael Bennett on the shelf for the next couple of weeks. Bennett is by far the Seahawks best defensive player on that front line and not having him out there does mean that the Bills should be able to find a few more holes at the line of scrimmage, regardless of who's playing RB.
While these two injuries will have an impact on the game, I wouldn't be in a hurry to conclude that those absences equate to very few points scored like nearly 75% of the bettors already have according to VegasInsider.com. Yes, that ugly 6-6 tie by Seattle is still somewhat fresh in everyone's minds, but the Seahawks did manage to put up 20 on New Orleans last week in a loss and the Bills defense has been playing just as soft of late.
Buffalo is 4-0 O/U in thier last four games overall, and their lone trip to the West Coast this year already produced an 'over' in a 30-19 win over the Rams. The Bills offense with or without McCoy has to be willing to take some shots against this Seattle defense and the signing of Percy Harvin to help bolster the WR corps should force Seattle to respect the deep ball if nothing else. Furthermore, Buffalo is on a 8-2 O/U when coming off a loss and are 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF.
Meanwhile, Seattle is hoping to get their own offense back in gear after some sluggish weeks and the success they saw Tom Brady have last week against this Bills defense has to help. Tight ends have killed the Bills for the most part this year with Gronkowski having a huge day last week and Seattle's got one that's eerily similar in Jimmy Graham.
Graham could be poised for a big night against this defense and that's something to keep in mind. Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that while these teams don't play each other often, the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in their last eight meetings and that play has become a contrarian play this week.
Best Bet: Over 43.5 points
MNF - Bills at Seahawks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
For only the third time this season, an interconference battle will take place on Monday night football as the Bills travel to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seahawks. Buffalo has endured a roller-coaster ride through the first half of the season by starting 0-2, followed by a four-game winning streak, but the Bills are looking to snap a two-game skid. Seattle sits atop the NFC West with a 4-2-1 mark, while continuing to own one of the best home-field advantages in the league.
LAST WEEK
As expected, the Bills were not able to pull off the season sweep of the Patriots. After Buffalo shut out New England without Tom Brady in Week 4 by a 16-0 count, the Patriots ripped the Bills, 41-25 last Sunday at New Era Stadium. Brady torched the Buffalo defense for 315 yards passing and four touchdowns, sending the Bills to their second home loss within the division and third overall setback in the AFC East. LeSean McCoy sat out with a hamstring injury, but Buffalo rushed for 167 yards, led by Mike Gillislee’s 85 yards.
The Seahawks fell to 1-2-1 on the road this season after blowing a 14-3 lead in a 25-20 loss at New Orleans as one-point favorites. Seattle was limited to six second half points, while the offense produced only one touchdown, a two-yard run by Christine Michael in the second quarter. Quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last three games, while Seattle has scored one offensive touchdown or less in three road contests this season.
SPACING OUT
Seattle lost only two home games from 2012-14, but fell back to 5-3 last season at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have started this season with a 3-0 home record, but two of those victories have come by two points apiece against the Dolphins and Falcons. Seattle has covered only five times in its last 11 home contests since the start of 2015, which includes a 1-2 ATS record this season. However, the Seahawks have won nine consecutive home games against AFC opponents since 2011, while posting an impressive 7-2 ATS mark.
WELCOME BACK
McCoy is expected back in the lineup after leaving the loss to Miami two weeks ago with a hamstring injury. In three of four wins, McCoy has eclipsed the 110-yard mark, including a season-high 150 yards rushing in a 30-19 triumph at Los Angeles in Week 5. Former Bills and Seahawks’ wide receiver Percy Harvin will return to the field for Buffalo after ending his short retirement last week. Harvin was a member of Seattle’s Super Bowl winning team in 2013 as he returned the second half opening kickoff for a touchdown.
NO REX EFFECT
Bills’ head coach Rex Ryan is known as a defensive guru, but Buffalo has allowed 69 points in the last two losses. Buffalo is riding a four-game OVER streak, including consecutive OVERS in road games at Miami and Los Angeles. Last season, the Bills were listed as an underdog of seven points or more only once as Buffalo pushed as seven-point ‘dogs in a 20-13 defeat New England last November.
PREVIOUS MATCHUP
The Seahawks blasted the Bills in Toronto back in 2012 by a 50-17 count as 4½-point favorites. Wilson rushed for three touchdowns and threw for another, while posting 205 yards through the air. Seattle caused three takeaways, including a pair of interceptions of Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are making their first trip to Seattle since 2004 when Buffalo picked up a 38-9 rout as 4½-point underdogs. Willis McGahee shredded the Seahawks’ defense for four rushing touchdowns, while Buffalo held Seattle to 230 yards of offense.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the Bills four-game winning streak simply feels like a mirage at this point, “After allowing 41 points at home in the biggest home date of the season last week, it is hard to the take Bills seriously as an AFC threat. The four-game winning streak featured some great fortune and while the Bills are the top yards per rush team in the NFL, Seattle’s defense remains very tough against the run. The Bills are the only team to beat New England but they did so vs. Jacoby Brissett and not Tom Brady. The other three wins came vs. teams that are currently below .500 though until last week’s 16-point loss to New England, all of the losses for the Bills came by six or fewer points.”
When comparing the quarterbacks in this matchup, Nelson notes the numbers don’t indicate much edge either way this season, “Wilson ranks 26th in the league in Total QBR below far less heralded players like Trevor Siemian and Cody Kessler with the struggles of the Seattle offensive line certainly a big factor in his marginal start to the season. Taylor is actually 8th in the Total QBR rankings after finishing 7th in the NFL last season, but his completion rate is down five percent at this point in the season and his passes are going for a yard and a half less per attempt compared with the 2015 numbers.”
PROPS
Buffalo
T. Taylor – Total Completions
17½ - OVER (-110)
17½ - UNDER (-110)
T. Taylor – Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
1½ - OVER (-140)
1½ - UNDER (+120)
T. Taylor – Total Rushing Yards
32½ - OVER (-110)
32½ - UNDER (-110)
Seattle
R. Wilson – Total Gross Passing Yards
259½ - OVER (-110)
259½ - UNDER (-110)
R. Wilson Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-150)
2 – UNDER (+130)
Will C. Michael score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)
Following a pair of six-point losses to open the season, Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan opined that playing a difficult opponent might be just what his team needs to get back on a winning track. That mindset will be in play Monday night for Buffalo, which pays a visit to perhaps the league's toughest venue when it visits the Seattle Seahawks.
The Bills have dropped two in a row to AFC East rivals Miami and New England, prompting Ryan to basically concede the division, and a third straight defeat could seriously jeopardize their wild-card hopes. "Obviously this is probably another top-five team in the NFL," Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said. "You don’t want to look that far ahead but each game is very important and at this point we still control our own destiny, but we’ve got to get back on a winning row here." Seattle also needs to get back in the win column after coming up empty in back-to-back road games, falling at New Orleans last weekend following a tie at Arizona. The Seahawks are a different animal at CenturyLink Field with a 3-0 record this season, although two of the wins have come by two points.
LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7-point home favorites and, despite a brief drop to -6.5 on Tuesday, remain at that opening fugure of -7 on Sunday night. The total hit the betting board at 44, dropped briefly to 43.5 and return to the original number of 44 by game day. View the complete line history here.
WEATHER: The conditions in Seattle are expected to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 60's and a 15 percent chance of rain showers for Monday Night Football. The humididy level will be high (75 percent) and a slight breeze will not be a factor.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Bills hold the offensive edge in this game, averaging 26.5 points per game and 5.8 yards per play, compared to Seattle's 18.7 ppg and 5.6 yppl. However, the Seahawks hold the defensive edge, allowing just 15.6 points per game and 5.1 yards per play this season, compared to a Buffalo defense that permits 21.5 ppg and 5.9 yppl this season." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
INJURIES:
Bills - TE C. Clay (probable, knee), RB L. McCoy (probable, hamstring), WR R. Woods (probable, foot), WR M. Goodwin (probable, concussion), T C. Glenn (questionable, ankle), T S. Henderson (questionable, back), WR B. Tate (questionable, concussion), LB L. Alexander (questionable, hamstring), RB R. Bush (questionable, groin), DT M. Dareus (out, leg), C P. Lewis (out, knee), QB C. Jones (out, shoulder), WR M. Easley (questionable, knee), WR K. Listenbee (questionable, hernia), S A. Williams (I-R, neck), S C. Anderson (I-R, hand), WR S. Watkins (elig Week 12, foot), TE B. Annen (I-R, neck), TE C. Gragg (I-R, knee), DB J. Dowling (I-R, knee), LB R. Ragland (I-R, knee), LB I. Enemkpali (I-R, knee).
Seahawks - QB R. Wilson (probable, knee), TE J. Graham (probable, knee), DT T. McDaniel (probable, undisclosed), LB K. Pierre-Louis (questionable, ankle), T B. Sowell (questionable, knee), CB D. Elliott (questionable, hamstring), TE L. Willson (doubtful, knee), S K. Chancellor (out, groin), DE M. Bennett (out, knee), RB R. Rawls (out, shin), DT J. Hill (I-R, hamstring), DT Q. Jefferson (I-R, knee), DT G. Smith (I-R, undisclosed), LB M. Morgan (I-R, hip), TE J. Sommers (I-R, ankle), WR T. Slavin (I-R, undisclosed), DE T. Barnes (I-R, arm), CB S. Jean-Baptiste (I-R, shoulder).
ABOUT THE BILLS (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): The No. 1 topic for Buffalo is the health of star running back LeSean McCoy, who sat out last week's game after being limited to 11 yards against the Dolphins in Week 7. McCoy, who rumbled for 470 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 3-6, was limited at Thursday's practice but expressed optimism that he would be available Monday night. "I feel good. Mentally, I feel great," McCoy said. "Just getting over that step of, ‘If I make this hard cut, will I feel it?’ I did it today, different runs. So I’m ready to roll." Quarterback Tyrod Taylor would benefit most from the return of McCoy, with the Bills' passing game ranking 31st at 179.4 yards per game.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Despite guiding Seattle to 10 points in the final five minutes of a come-from-behind win over Atlanta in Week 6, quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled over the past three games. Wilson, who battled knee and ankle injuries, has zero touchdown passes and one interception in the last three and has rushed for only 16 yards in 10 carries in that span. Rookie running back C.J. Prosise appears ready to assume a bigger role in the offense behind Christine Michael after accumulating 103 yards scrimmage last week. Seattle allows 89.7 yards on the ground, but defensive end Michael Bennett is out and safety Kam Chancellor likely is as well.
TRENDS:
* Bills are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 Monday games.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Seahawks with 52 percent of the wagers on the home favorites. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are taking the Under.
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
This Monday Night'r features two team that have hit a rough patch. The Seahawks have come up empty in back-to-back road games falling to New Orleans this past week which followed a tie at Arizona the previous effort. Bills, also saddled with a two game skid were tripped up in Miami back in week-7 then were taken behing the woodshed spanked 41-25 at home by division rival Patriots. Current odds at Sports Interaction has Seahawks -7.0 point home favorites with the total set at 44.0 across all shops.
Seahawks' QB Russell Wilson battling knee, ankle injuries with zero TD passes, 1 Int along with rushing 10 times for just 16 yards the past three weeks it's a head-scratcher Seahawks are handing Bills that many points since Pete Carroll's troops have come up short in four of six as chalk this season while Rex's squad is 2-2 against the betting line taking points this campaign.
However, Seahawks are a different animal at CenturyLink Field and still command a respectable scoring defense (15.6) that Bills may find hard to solve with its own rash of injuries. Wilson getting healthier by the day should make enough plays in front of the home audience to get it done in prime time. Seahawks have had success at home of late vs non-conference opponents (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) and have thrived under Monday Night light's. In the Pete Carroll era the Seahawks are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in MNF and have a sparkling 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS record dating back to the 2005-6 season on Monday. Seahawks are also 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS as home chalk vs a team off a loss, 5-1 SU/ATS after a loss as a fave. The clincher, Bills hit the field a cash-burning 2-11 ATS after DD home loss incl 2-8 ATS as road dogs, 1-4 taking points on the road after a loss vs Patriots.