NFL betting trends, odds and predictions Monday, October 10th, 2016.
TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/10/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tampa Bay: 1-2 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Carolina: 6-0 ATS off a road loss
NFL Week 5
Buccaneers (1-3) @ Panthers (1-3) — Unclear yet if Newton will start here; if not, backup QB Anderson is 20-25 as an NFL starter, just 2-0 since 2010. Carolina turned ball over nine times (-5) in last three games; they’ve led three of four games at the half, but are 1-3. Tampa Bay allowed 34.7 pts/game in losing last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers, were outscored 46-19 in second half last three weeks. Carolina is 13-5-2 in last 20 games as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 10-8 in last 18 games as road dog. Carolina won last six series games, four by 14+ points; Panthers swept Bucs 37-23/38-10 LY, with 8 takeaways (+5) in two games and two defensive TDs, with five scoring drives less than 50 yards. Bucs lost last three visits here by 21-2-28 points. Tampa Bay has lost field position in all four games, three by 7+ points; their special teams need improvement and they need to protect the ball better.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Week 5 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Tampa Bay at Carolina: Although he has an extra day to make it through concussion protocol, Cam Newton hadn’t practiced through Thursday. Derek Anderson is preparing to make his first start since Dec. 14, 2014 after throwing a pair of TD passes and two picks last week in Atlanta. He last opened under center after Newton’s car accident scare, ironically, against Tampa Bay. Although he’s been on the roster since 2011 and would be playing his 19th game with the Panthers, this would only be his third start. He’s 2-0, beating the Bucs twice in ’14. Having veteran RB Jonathan Stewart back would aid matters for whoever the quarterback is, but he’s just working his way back from a hamstring injury and may still be a week away. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is also expected to miss his third straight game with a hammy, so the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers will be the likely starter. Key defensive lineman Gerald McCoy (calf) and Noah Spence (shoulder) are doubtful for Tampa Bay, so the winner of this key Monday night game may wind up being the team that’s able to adapt best. Both NFC South squads are legitimately banged up, but since the NFL grind has no compassion, one will slip to 1-4 and take up residence in last place. Jameis Winston is 0-2 against Carolina, which has won eight of 10 in this series.
MNF - Buccaneers at Panthers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Falcons have jumped out to a solid start in the NFC South race, but the defending division champions aren’t ready to give up yet. Carolina has started this season at 1-3 after losing only one regular season game in 2015, but the Panthers will be down several key players, including quarterback Cam Newton. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers won their season opener at Atlanta, but have failed to win in each of their last three games as they go for their second divisional road victory of the season.
LAST WEEK
For the second straight season, the Panthers traveled to the Georgia Dome and left with a defeat. After dropping a 20-13 decision last season in Atlanta, the Falcons’ offense exploded against Carolina in Week 4 by pounding the conference champions, 48-33. Atlanta amassed nearly 600 yards of offense, including 503 yards from the right arm of Matt Ryan.
Newton left the game in the fourth quarter with a concussion after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit. The 2015 Most Valuable Player threw for 165 yards and a touchdown before exiting in favor of Derek Anderson. The Carolina back-up quarterback connected on a pair of touchdowns passes in a 23-point fourth quarter, but the Panthers couldn’t pull off the rally as Anderson was intercepted twice.
The Buccaneers’ offense has been missing in two of three during their current three-game skid. Tampa Bay has been limited to seven points in losses to Arizona and Denver, as the defending Super Bowl champions routed the Bucs last Sunday, 27-7 as 3 ½-point favorites.
Jameis Winston threw four touchdowns opening week against the Falcons, but the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner has gone backwards recently. Winston was intercepted twice against the powerful Denver defense, as the former Florida State standout has been picked off seven times in the last three losses. Tampa Bay amassed 215 yards offensively, while running back Doug Martin sat out due to a hamstring injury.
DEREK’S DAY
Newton will sit out on Monday night due to the lingering concussion symptoms, as Anderson will make his first start for Carolina since 2014. Coincidentally, Anderson made only two starts that season, both against Tampa Bay as the Panthers beat the Buccaneers each time. Anderson threw three touchdown passes and completed 66% of his attempts, while throwing for 507 yards in those wins.
INJURY BUG
Past Newton being sidelined, both teams are without their top running backs as Martin remains out for Tampa Bay and Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart are each out with hamstring injuries. Bucs’ defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is listed as doubtful with a calf injury suffered in the Week 4 loss to Denver. Tampa Bay’s rushing game has faltered without Martin, as the Bucs ran for 72 yards on 26 carries against Denver, 83 yards against Los Angeles, and only 85 yards in a Week 2 blowout loss at Arizona.
BANK ON IT
The Panthers finished last season with a perfect 10-0 record at Bank of America Stadium, but had their 14-game home winning streak snapped in a Week 3 loss to undefeated Minnesota. Since the start of the 2014 season, Carolina has compiled a 14-7 ATS record in the previous 21 home contests, including a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12 in the role of a home favorite.
SIX-PACK
The Panthers were swept by the Buccaneers in Newton’s second season back in 2012. However, Carolina has won each of its last six matchups with Tampa Bay since 2013, including a pair of double-digit blowouts last season. In the first meeting at Raymond James Stadium, the Panthers’ defense reached the end zone twice with a pair of scores in a 37-23 triumph as three-point road favorites. Carolina wiped out Tampa Bay to close out the regular season in a 38-10 rout as 10-point favorites in Week 17 as Newton tossed a pair of touchdowns.
TOTAL TALK
Carolina has cashed the OVER in three of four games this season, while allowing at least 21 points in all four contests. Tampa Bay has split the total in its four games, but its defense has given up at least 24 points each week in 2016. Both matchups went OVER the total last season, but two of the last three meetings at Bank of America Stadium have finished UNDER the total.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson weighs on this matchup, starting with struggles of Winston,” Through four games, Winston already has 10 turnovers after having just 18 in 16 games last season as the Buccaneers are off to a 1-3 start. In fairness, Winston and the Buccaneers have had to face quality defenses with the losses coming to Arizona, Los Angeles, and Denver and the opening week win at Atlanta is holding up as a high quality result. The schedule isn’t any easier this week with a Monday night test in Charlotte ahead of the bye week with both Tampa Bay and Carolina sitting at 1-3 making this a critically important game on both sides.”
Nelson breaks down the numbers involving Carolina, who has played a loaded schedule so far, “In comparing the numbers this season, Carolina’s offense has actually been quite productive, gaining 5.7 yards per play and averaging 387 yards per game, considering they have faced elite Denver and Minnesota defenses in half of the games. The Carolina defense has allowed 6.0 yards per play with particular struggles in the passing game, surrendering 64 percent completions and injuries at each level of the defense have made it a challenge in a year when the team released its most prominent player on defense (Josh Norman) over the summer.”
PROPS
Tampa Bay
J. Winston – Total Gross Passing Yards O/U 267 ½ (-110)
J. Winston – Total Touchdown Passes O/U 1 ½ (Under -130)
Will Mike Evans score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125
Carolina
D. Anderson – Total Completions O/U 20 ½ (-110)
D. Anderson – Total Touchdown Passes O/U 1 ½ (-110)
G. Olsen - Total Receiving Yards O/U 69 ½ (-110)
FUTURES
Carolina began the season listed at 6/1 odds to return to the Super Bowl and 12/1 odds to capture the championship at Super Bowl LI in Houston. However, the Panthers have dropped to 25/1 odds to win the Super Bowl following the 1-3 start. Tampa Bay has a long way to go to have its odds lowered as the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook posted the Buccaneers at 300/1 to capture the title following four weeks.
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Covers.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 45.5)
Quarterback Cam Newton will miss what is shaping up as an early-season elimination game between the Carolina Panthers and the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. Newton, who guided Carolina to the Super Bowl last season, didn't practice all week and was confirmed as OUT on Saturday afternoon.
Panthers coach Ron Rivera confirmed the decision on Newton, the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player, was out of his hands. "We follow the (NFL concussion) protocol," Rivera said. "We're not forcing players to get onto the football field. We'll do exactly as the protocol tells us, and the doctors and the experts tell us." Derek Anderson will get the nod against Tampa Bay, which has dropped three in a row since a season-opening victory over the Falcons. The Buccaneers have been torched for 104 points during their three-game skid and have lost six straight matchups to Carolina, including both last season by a combined 42 points.
LINE HISTORY: The defending NFC Champions opened the betting week as 4.5-point favorites. That spread dropped down to -4 when Cam Newton was announced as OUT but there has been significant Panthers' money on Sunday which has spiked the line up to -5.5. The total opened at 45.5 but was immediately dropped down to 44 early in the week. Leading up to Sunday's kickoffs there was significant action on the Over which forced the books to bump the total up to 45.5. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+2.5) - Panthers (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -7
INJURY REPORT:
Buccaneers - DT C. McDonald (Ques Mon, hamstring), CB B. Grimes (Ques Mon, hamstring), DE R. Ayers (Ques Mon, ankle), TE L. Stocker (Ques Mon, ankle), WR C. Shorts (Ques Mon, hamstring), TE B. Myers (Ques Mon, shoulder), LB L. David (Ques Mon, undisclosed), RB C. Sims (Doub Mon, knee), DT G. McCoy (Doub Mon, calf), DE N. Spence (Out Indefinitely, shoulder), RB D. Martin (Mid Oct, hamstring), LB D. Bond (I-R, hamstring), DE J. Smith (I-R, knee), WR L. Murphy (Elig Week 8, knee), G J. Sweezy (Elig Week 8, back), DE G. Johnson (I-R, hip).
Panthers - WR D. Funchess (Prob Mon, toe), LB T. Davis (Prob Mon, hamstring), DE C. Johnson (Ques Mon, quadricep), FB M. Tolbert (Ques Mon, hamstring), WR T. Ginn, Jr. (Ques Mon, foot), LB J. Cash (Ques Mon, hamstring), QB C. Newton (Out Mon, concussion), T M. Oher (Out Mon, concussion), CB J. Bradberry (Out Mon, toe), RB J. Stewart (Mid Oct, hamstring), DT V. Butler (Mid Oct, ankle), DE R. Delaire (I-R, knee), S D. Marlowe (I-R, hamstring), WR L. Byrd (I-R, concussion), T J. Rigsbee (I-R, knee), CB L. Johnson (Elig Week 8, achilles), FB D. Johnson (I-R, back).
WEATHER REPORT: Game-time conditions in Charlotte are going to be clear with temperatures in the low-60's on Monday evening. Winds will be light and humidity levels will be at around 60 percent.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams enter with 1-3 SU/ATS records and have struggled this season. Quarterback Cam Newton is out with a concussion and veteran backup Derek Anderson will start for Carolina. He has played in 70 games during his 11-year NFL career, completing just 54% of his passes for only 6.5 yards per pass with a mediocre 60/57 touchdown/interception ratio and 71.6 QB rating. The biggest difference for the Panthers will be the lack of a running game as Anderson has averaged just 3.2 rushing yards per game during his NFL career and just 2.3 yards per carry. Cam Newton has averaged 40.9 rushing yards per game during his NFL career and 5.3 yards per carry."
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Tampa Bay was held to seven points for the second time in three games in last week's 27-7 home loss to Denver as quarterback Jameis Winston continues to struggle in his second season. Winston has thrown as many interceptions (eight) as touchdown passes -- seven coming in the past three weeks -- and has absorbed a league-high 39 hits, although coach Dirk Koetter said playing from behind has left his quarterback more vulnerable. Wideout Mike Evans has 26 receptions and three touchdowns in three games, but running backs Doug Martin (hamstring) and Charles Sims (knee) could both miss Monday's game with injuries. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is also a question mark due to a calf injury.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Carolina has issues on both sides of the ball, scoring only 10 points in a Week 3 home loss to Minnesota before its defense was shredded for 48 points in last week's drubbing at Atlanta. Anderson was 17 of 23 for 172 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, including a game-clinching pick-six, in relief of Newton last week. “Guys have a lot of respect for him," said Panthers tight end Greg Olsen, who has 24 receptions and a pair of touchdowns. "He’s been in the fire as the starter, as a backup in places he’s been. Every time he’s coming in he’s delivered." Carolina had one of the league's stingiest defenses in 2015, but it was carved up for 503 passing yards by the Falcons.
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Buccaneers last 13 games in October.
* Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
* Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Panthers with 56 percent of the picks on the home favorites. Over is dominating totals wagers with 62 percent of the selections.
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers
Monday Night Football has Buccaneers setting sails toward Bank of America Stadium to meet division rival Carolina Panthers. Bucs trounced 27-7 at home by Denver last week enter 1-3 SU/ATS. No big surprise, Bucs usually rack up losses by the boat-load year after year. The defending NFC champion Panthers shredded for an eye-popping 503 passing yards in a 48-33 WK-4 loss to the Falcons are also 1-3 SU/ATS which is a huge surprise considering they lost just twice all of last season. Current odds at bet365.com has Panthers laying 4.5 points with the total set at 45.0.
Both teams with extensive injuries, Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston struggling so far tossing 8 TDS, 8 Picks, QB Derek Anderson chucking two touchdowns, two interceptions, including a game-clinching pick-six last week once again taking snaps in relief of Newton (concussion) this game shapes up to be a prime-time clunker.
For those inclined toward laying down hard earned cash in a matchup of injury plagued teams with suspect QB's quiding respective squads a few betting nuggets to ponder. Bucs 3-6 ATS in MNF including 1-3 ATS as road dogs. But a profitable 5-1 against the betting line last six overall as road dogs vs a division rival. Bucs 1-5 ATS last six meetings but 3-0 ATS as pups of 4 or less last three in Panthers back yard. Panthers sport a 0-2 MNF skid, vig-losing 1-1 ATS record last two as MNF host.