NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 17th, 2016.
NY JETS (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (2 - 3) - 10/17/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NY JETS vs. ARIZONA
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
NY Jets at Arizona
New York: 32-17 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Arizona: 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10
NFL Week 6
Jets (1-4) @ Cardinals (2-3) — Palmer (concussion) is expected back at QB here; Redbirds had three extra days to prep- they played on Thursday LW. Arizona scored 40-33 points in its two wins, 21 or less in its losses; they’re +7 in turnovers in wins, -8 in losses. Jets allowed 23+ points in all five games this year; they lost their last three games, outscored 37-7 in second half; they’ve allowed 7.8+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games, exception being game at Kansas City when Jets turned ball over eight times and KC didn’t have to try too hard on offense. Gang Green won last six series games; four of six were in New Jersey. Jets won last two visits here; their last loss at the Cardinals was in St Louis in 1971. NFC teams are 14-8 SU against AFC teams so far this season.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Week 6 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
N.Y. Jets at Arizona: The Cardinals rose from the ashes last Thursday night by winning in San Francisco and can now move back to .500 if they hold serve at home. Of course, the Jets are clinging to their own realistic postseason aspirations here, having started 1-4. It doesn’t help their cause that QB Carson Palmer has made it through concussion protocol and G Mike Iupati looks to be coming around after having his walking boot removed. New York hasn’t been as fortunate this week. Eric Decker (rotator cuff) officially went on IR, center Nick Mangold (knee), LB David Harris and DB Darrelle Revis (hamstrings) haven’t inspired confidence that they’ll be in the mix and the defense appeared rattled by another game where they were dominated. About the only thing that does favor the visitors on Monday night is history, since the Jets haven’t lost to the Cardinals since 1975. They’ve never lost in Arizona, although this will be their first trip into Glendale. New York has won six straight in the series.
NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 46)
Carson Palmer is poised to return to the lineup when the Arizona Cardinals host the skidding New York Jets on Monday Night Football. After sitting out last week, Palmer has been cleared from the league's concussion protocol in time to face the Jets, who are mired in a three-game skid in which all the losses have come by double digits.
Drew Stanton stepped in for Palmer at San Francisco on Oct. 6 and guided Arizona to a 33-21 victory that halted a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals (2-3) have already lost as many games as last season, when they won posted 13 victories and won the NFC West title before losing to Carolina in the conference title game. Jets coach Todd Bowles, who went 10-6 in his first campaign with New York, knows what he's up against in Arizona, serving under Bruce Arians as the team's defensive coordinator in 2013-14. “With a guy who taught me almost half my football life, you try not to let him down, and in order not to let him down, I have to win the game,” Bowles said jokingly of facing Arians.
LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the line hasn't moved all week. The total hit the betting board at 46, was bumped up slightly to 46.5, and returned to the opening number on Saturday afternoon. View complete line history here.
INJURIES:
Jets - WR J. Marshall (Prob Mon, shoulder), RB M. Forte (Prob Mon, knee), WR B. Marshall (Prob Mon, knee), G B. Winters (Prob Mon, concussion), TE A. Seferian-Jenkins (Ques Mon, ankle), CB D. Roberts (Ques Mon, shoulder), CB D. Revis (Ques Mon, hamstring), TE B. Bowman (Ques Mon, knee), C N. Mangold (Ques Mon, knee), DE S. Richardson (Ques Mon, knee), LB D. Harris (Doub Mon, hamstring), QB B. Petty (Out Indefinitely, shoulder), WR E. Decker (I-R, shoulder), DE L. Thomas (I-R, shoulder), T B. Giacomini (Elig Week 7, back), RB R. Morris (I-R, shoulder), WR D. Smith (Elig Week 7, knee), DE J. Obioha (I-R, undisclosed).
Cardinals - LB K. Minter (Pron Mon, concussion), QB C. Palmer (Prob Mon, concussion), DT R. Nkemdiche (Ques Mon, ankle), TE D. Fells (Ques Mon, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (Ques Mon, toe), DT J. Mauro (Ques Mon, chest), G M. Iupati (Early Nov, ankle), G E. Mathis (I-R, ankle), S T. Branch (Elig Week 12, groin), RB C. Johnson (Elig Week 12, hernia), LB A. Fua (I-R, knee), TE T. Niklas (I-R, wrist), S D. Eskridge (I-R, arm), CB M. Jenkins (I-R, knee), CB E. Bouka).
ABOUT THE JETS (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): New York has scored 33 points during the three-game losing streak and was blanked in the second half of last week's 31-13 loss at Pittsburgh, although quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick did not throw an interception after he was picked off nine times in the previous two games. Losing wide receiver Eric Decker, who had 12 touchdown receptions in 2015, to season-ending shoulder surgery is another blow to the passing attack. The Jets have not been helped by a suspect running game as Matt Forte rushed for 100 yards and three touchdowns in their lone win at Buffalo in Week 2, but has been held to 80 yards in the past two weeks. New York ranks No. 2 against the run (68.4 yards per game) but is getting gouged through the air (303.0 yards).
ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Arians wants to see improvement from Palmer, who set career highs in all major categories and was in the conversation for league MVP for much of last season but is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. “Just keep throwing it,” Arians said. “See if they can keep catching it and throw it a little farther on the deep balls.” The Cardinals do have the luxury of a standout running back in David Johnson, who rumbled for 157 yards and two touchdowns at San Francisco and set a franchise record by going over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the first five games. Arizona managed only 36 sacks last season, but is already halfway to that mark, led by linebacker Markus Golden with six.
TRENDS:
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in Jets last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 home games.
CONSENESUS: 52 percent of picks are on the Jets to cover on the road while 53 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.
MNF - Jets at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 6 card closes out in Arizona with an interconference matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. Arizona is looking for a return to the .500 mark following a slow start to the season, while New York has stumbled out of the gate to a disappointing 1-4 start after nearly making the playoffs last season. Can the Cardinals improve on an 0-2 mark against AFC opponents or will the Jets finally get on track?
LAST WEEK
The Cardinals picked up some much needed rest following a 33-21 victory at San Francisco last Thursday night. Arizona cashed as 3½-point road favorites in spite of not scoring its first point until the final two minutes of the first half. The Cardinals turned to backup quarterback Drew Stanton to start in place of the injured Carson Palmer, as Stanton hooked up with Larry Fitzgerald for a pair of touchdown connections. Arizona running back David Johnson tore up the San Francisco defense for 157 yards and two scores on the ground, while the Cards took advantage of three 49ers’ turnovers. The Cardinals have scored a combined 73 points in two wins, while putting up 56 points in its three losses.
The Jets turned the ball over 11 times in losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks, but didn’t commit a turnover last week at Pittsburgh. However, New York fell short at Heinz Field in a 31-13 drubbing as 10-point underdogs as the Steelers outscored the Jets, 17-0 in the second half. Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t put up bad numbers following nine interceptions in the previous two games as the Jets’ quarterback threw for 255 yards and a touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. Since scoring 37 points at Buffalo in Week 2, New York has amassed 33 points in the past three losses.
INTERCONFERENCE STRUGGLES
Last season, the Cardinals won three of four games against AFC foes, but compiled a 1-3 ATS mark. Arizona has already lost two interconference contests in 2016, falling to New England and Buffalo. The Cardinals own a dreadful 1-5 ATS record under Bruce Arians as a home favorite against AFC opponents since 2013. The Jets went 3-1 last season against the NFC, but lost their first interconference affair this season to Seattle, 27-17 in Week 4.
PREVIOUS MEETING
There weren’t many highlights when these teams last hooked up at Met Life Stadium in 2012 as the Jets held off the Cardinals, 7-6. To show you how much has changed since then, the Cardinals started Ryan Lindley at quarterback, while Mark Sanchez started for New York and was intercepted three times. The lone touchdown came on the famous connection of Greg McElroy to Jeff Cumberland in the fourth quarter, but Arizona cashed as six-point road underdogs. The Jets are visiting University of Phoenix Stadium for the first time ever, while New York is heading to the desert for the first time since 2004 when New York topped Arizona, 13-3 at Sun Devil Stadium.
CARSON CITY
After missing the San Francisco victory with a concussion suffered in a Week 4 loss to Los Angeles, Carson Palmer is expected to start on Monday night for Arizona. The Cardinals’ veteran quarterback has nearly matched his yardage output through four games from last season when Palmer threw for 1,155 yards in the first four contests of 2015. Palmer is currently at 1,150 yards through four games this season, but the former top pick tossed 10 touchdowns during Arizona’s 4-0 start last season as opposed to six touchdowns this season.
LOW FLYERS
Since starting last season with a 5-1 ATS record, the Jets have sunk to a dreadful 4-9-2 ATS mark in the past 15 contests. New York has been listed as an underdog in all three road games this season, compiling a 1-2 SU/ATS mark, as the Jets are 4-2 ATS under Todd Bowles when receiving points since the start of 2015.
NOT SO HOT
The Cardinals have struggled in the role of a home favorite since 2015, putting together a 4-8 ATS mark in the last 12 games at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona has already lost outright to New England and Los Angeles in the favorite role, while blowing out Tampa Bay for its only home cover in Week 2.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson says the Jets have been plagued by a difficult slate through the first five weeks, “There is reason to believe the Jets have a chance to climb back into the AFC picture as they have by most measures played the toughest schedule in the league, facing teams that are a combined 14-9 while taking on four squads that made the playoffs last season. A league worst -9 turnover margin has also been a big factor in the results with three of the five games this season also being on the road.”
On the Cardinals’ side, Nelson breaks down Arizona’s inconsistency on the offensive end, “Palmer is expected to return this week, but the Cardinals haven’t matched last season’s production, currently 22nd in the NFL in yards per play on offense this season, two spots below the Jets. Arizona still owns the fourth best yards per play defense in the NFL at this point in the season, but they have faced a fairly weak schedule at this point in the season with the two wins coming over the Buccaneers and 49ers.”
PROPS
New York
B. Marshall - Over 100 Receiving Yards 3/2
B. Marshall - Record 7 or More Receptions 6/5
B. Marshall - Score a TD and Jets Win Game 5/1
M. Forte - Over 100 Rushing Yards 4/1
M. Forte - Over 50 Receiving Yards 2/1
R. Fitzpatrick - Attempts 45 or More Passes 5/2
R. Fitzpatrick - Over 2.5 Interceptions Thrown 4/1
R. Fitzpatrick - Over 275 Passing Yards 2/1
Arizona
C. Palmer - Attempts 45 or More Passes 9/4
C. Palmer - Over 1.5 Interceptions Thrown 7/4
C. Palmer - Over 350 Passing Yards 5/2
C. Palmer - Throws 30 or More Pass Completions 4/1
D. Johnson - Over 100 Rushing Yards 9/4
D. Johnson - 20 or More Rushing Attempts 3/2
L. Fitzgerald - Over 100 Receiving Yards 2/1
L. Fitzgerald - Record 8 or More Receptions 3/2
FUTURE ODDS
Looking ahead to Week 7, the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened up the Jets as a pick-em at home against the Ravens, while the Cardinals are listed as a 1½-point home favorite in a Sunday night showdown with the Seahawks.
The Jets opened the season at 30/1 to win Super Bowl LI, but that number has dropped to 300/1 following their dreadful start. Arizona hasn’t fallen that far from 10/1 odds at the Westgate before the season to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl, as the Cardinals are currently at 16/1 in spite of sitting below the .500 mark.
MNF Top Prop Bets
By Sportsbook.ag
As Week 6 NFL action comes to a close tonight with the Jets/Cardinals game, it's time to look at a couple of prop bets offered at Sportsbook.ag that could bring home some significant rewards tonight.
WR Larry Fitzgerald Over 150 Receiving Yards (+1200)
The Jets have been torched by passing attacks all year long and tonight's game could very well be no different. Arizona's got QB Carson Palmer back under center and we should see at least one of his WR's go off.
New York allowed AJ Green to go for 180 on them in Week 1 and have allowed at least one receiver to top 100 against them in every other game but their loss vs. KC when the Chiefs didn't need to move up and down the field because of all the turnovers the Jets had there.
Fitzgerald is easily the #1 guy here and with CB Darrelle Revis either banged up or on the shelf, Fitz could be in store for a huge day. He went off last week with 2 TD's against the 49ers and 81 yards, but this is the week he breaks a big day in terms of yardage.
At 12/1 odds to get 150+, the value to hit it big is there, although going over 125 yards at +500 isn't a bad option either.
RB Matt Forte to Record 5 or more Receptions (+200)
The Jets know that if they'll want a chance to pull off the outright upset here as a touchdown underdog, they'll need to be able to sustain long drives and cash in with points at the end of them.
Turnovers have been the Jets offense's biggest issue and a way to mitigate potential turnovers and also continually move the chains is by using short flare routes, and other RB screens for somebody like Matt Forte.
For as good as Arizona's defense is considered, they've had trouble at times this year defending the running back on passing routes out of the backfield.
49ers RB Carlos Hyde caught all six passes thrown his way a week ago against this Cardinals team, and New England's RB James White had five catches himself on seven targets in Week 1.
Even Todd Gurley caught five balls against the Cardinals when the Rams came to town, and none of those guys are even remotely considered to be as good as a receiver at the RB position as Matt Forte is.
Forte knows that he's got to be more productive to help the Jets snap this losing skid they are in, and while running the ball for 150+ yards/game like he did earlier in his career may be out of the question these days – especially against Arizona – being a huge threat in the passing game is still a big part of his skill set.
2-1 odds for him to catch five passes tonight is a very good price, especially when the Cardinals pass rush could force Fitzpatrick to get the ball out of his hands early to the checkdown receiver. Forte is going to be that guy the majority of the time and this wager could end up cashing early in the 2nd half.