NFL Betting News and Notes Monday, October 24th, 2016

HOUSTON (4 - 2) at DENVER (4 - 2) - 10/24/2016, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

HOUSTON vs. DENVER
Houston is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

Houston at Denver
Houston: 3-7 ATS off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival
Denver: 1-8 ATS off a division game

StatFox Super Situations

HOUSTON at DENVER
Play On - Home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (DENVER) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team 27-2 over the last 5 seasons. ( 93.1% | 0.0 units )

NFL Week 7

Texans (4-2) @ Broncos (4-2) — Osweiler returns to Mile High City after bolting for Houston in free agency last winter; he rallied his new team back from down 23-9 with 4:00 left for dramatic win Sunday night, but Houston is 0-2 on road, losing 27-0 in Foxboro, 31-13 in Minnesota (Texans have one TD on 21 drives on road). Kubiak returns to sideline for Denver to face his former team; Broncos are 3-2 in last five series games, with average total of 48.2. Broncos lost last two games after 4-0 start, scoring two TDs on 24 drives after scoring 11 TDs on 41 drives in first four games. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; they lost 27-0/31-13 in ugly losses at Foxboro/Minnesota, but those might be two best teams in NFL. Last three Denver games stayed under the total; last three Houston games went over.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Week 7 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Houston at Denver: This one is the Brock Osweiler Bowl. Despite largely disappointing, the former Broncos backup has led the Texans to a 4-2 start, putting them atop the AFC South. If you checked out of the Sunday night game early, you were likely shocked when you awoke to news Houston came back to beat the Colts in OT. Osweiler led the comeback, saving his best throws for last, but mostly struggled until the final few drives. He can’t afford a sluggish start on the road against a defense that has made no secret that they would love to tear their former teammate apart. Texans CB Johnathan Joseph (forearm) will play, CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring) is likely but safety Quintin Demps (calf) probably won’t play, so their secondary remains injury-plagued. That’s good news for Trevor Siemian, who looked shaky in a Thursday night road loss at San Diego as the Broncos struggled with protection. Denver has won three of the five meetings since 2004, including a 37-13 rout in Houston in ’13.

NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

Brock Osweiler was instrumental in the Denver Broncos' run to a Super Bowl championship, but he was still allowed to walk via free agency in the offseason despite an obvious need at quarterback. Osweiler returns to the Mile High City off his best performance of the season when the Houston Texans visit the Denver Broncos on Monday night.

Osweiler went 5-2 in place of an injured Peyton Manning last season, but Denver was unwilling to meet the asking price -- a four-year, $72 million contract -- to keep him. "Bottom line I'm going to treat this game no different than any other game," Osweiler said. I'm going to go out and have a great week of practice and I'm going to understand the challenge ahead of us, but I'll look forward to that challenge." The move not to pursue Osweiler has looked brilliant as former seventh-round draft pick Trevor Siemian guided the Broncos to a 4-0 start. However, Siemian missed one game to injury and Denver's has sputtered in back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Diego, scoring a combined 29 points.

LINE HISTORY: The spread for this Monday night grudge match hit the board with the Broncos pegged as 7.5-point home favorites and the line has not moved all week. The total opened at 40.5 and has also been stable as of Sunday night. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Weather conditions for Sunday night in Denver are forecast to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-60's at kickoff (dropping to low-50's in the second half). There is only a 5 percent change of rain with virtually no wind to impact the game.

INJURIES:

Texans - CB K. Jackson (Prob Mon, hamstring), QB B. Osweiler (Prob Mon, foot), WR D. Hopkins (Prob Mon, hamstring), CB J. Joseph (Prob Mon, forearm), WR W. Fuller (Prob Mon, hamstring), S L. Ballentine (Ques Mon, knee), TE S. Anderson (Ques Mon, hamstring), G J. Allen (Ques Mon, concussion), LB B. Peters (Ques Mon, quadricep), RB J. Grimes (Out Mon, leg), S Q. Demps (Out Mon, calf), CB K. Johnson (I-R, foot), LB B. Scarlett (I-R, hamstring), S K. Dillon (I-R, knee), DE D. Still (Elig Week 13, undisclosed), DE J. Watt (I-R, back), LB G. Rivers (I-R, undisclosed), LB T. Washington Jr. (I-R, undisclosed), S K. Drummond (I-R, leg), K K. Fairbairn (I-R, quadricep), C N. Martin (I-R, ankle).

Broncos - WR E. Sanders (Prob Mon, hip), S J. Simmons (Ques Mon, wrist), T R. Okung (Ques Mon, concussion), T D. Stephenson (Ques Mon, concussion), LB D. Ware (Out Mon, forearm), WR C. Latimer (Out Indefinitely, concussion), DE V. Walker (I-R, knee), C S. Brenner (I-R, concussion).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Osweiler's numbers were nondescript at best through much of the first six games, but he tossed a pair of touchdowns in the final 2:37 of regulation to spark a comeback in Houston's 26-23 overtime win over Indianapolis last weekend. Running back Lamar Miller, also a marquee free-agent signing in the offseason, is coming off his best game by rushing for 149 yards and scoring his first two touchdowns -- one on the ground and one receiving. Star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a season-high nine receptions against the Colts, but his longest catch went for only 12 yards.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Defense carried Denver to the Super Bowl title last season and it ranks No. 1 in yards against the pass (182.3) and in sacks (21), but the running game is struggling to get untracked. Lead back C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Siemian, who suffered a shoulder injury in Week 4 that caused him to miss one game, has not been picked off since Week 2 and has a pair of top wideouts in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, who have combined for 67 receptions and six touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
* Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
* Over is 13-3 in Texans' last 16 games in October.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos' last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENESUS: 55 percent of picks are on the Broncos to cover as road favorites while 55 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

MNF - Texans at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Both the Texans and Broncos have each started the season with 4-2 records, but each AFC squad has reached this record on a different path. Monday night’s contest in Denver can be referred to as the “Brock Osweiler Bowl” with the former Bronco quarterback making his return to the Mile City High as a member of the Texans. However, Denver has more to deal with than just celebrating the return of Peyton Manning’s backup from last season’s Super Bowl winning team.

LAST WEEK

The Broncos dropped their second consecutive game following a 4-0 start, as Denver fell short in a 21-13 defeat at San Diego. Trevor Siemian returned under center for the Broncos after missing a Week 5 loss to Atlanta with a shoulder injury. However, Siemian couldn’t dig Denver out of a 21-3 hole in spite of throwing for 230 yards (most coming in the second half) and a touchdown. The Broncos committed 12 penalties for 103 yards, while head coach Gary Kubiak wasn’t on the sidelines due to a migraine. Denver failed to cash as three-point favorites to drop to 4-2 ATS, while losing its first AFC West game of the season.

The Texans remained unbeaten at NRG Stadium with a furious rally in the final 2:37 minutes against the Colts last Sunday night. Houston trailed Indianapolis, 23-9, but Osweiler threw a pair of touchdown passes, including the game-tying connection with C.J. Fiedorowicz with 49 seconds remaining in regulation. The Texans won it in overtime on a Nick Novak 33-yard field goal to stun the Colts, 26-23, but pushed as three-point favorites. Osweiler has yet to bust the 300-yard mark in six games for Houston, posting 269 yards against Indianapolis, but the Texans did improve to 2-0 inside the AFC South.

ROAD WOES

Houston has thrived at home with a 4-0 record, but leaving the Lone Star State has been lowly for Bill O’Brien’s squad. The Texans have been outscored 58-13 in road losses at New England and Minnesota, who have combined for a 10-1 record. Houston has reached the end zone only once on the highway this season and that was in garbage time at Minnesota when Osweiler hooked up with DeAndre Hopkins for a score in a 31-6 game. The Texans have compiled a 4-6 SU/ATS record since the start of last season on the road as three of those victories have come against division opponents.

HIGH PRICE TO PAY

The Broncos own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL. However, Denver is laying its biggest number of the season on Monday night (7½) and that hasn’t translated into many covers at Sports Authority Field. Since December 2014, the Broncos own a 1-4-1 ATS mark as a touchdown favorite or higher at home, but Denver has won five of those six games from a straight-up standpoint.

SERIES HISTORY

This is the sixth meeting ever between the Texans and Broncos and the first since 2013. Houston is visiting Denver for the fourth time as the Texans held off the Broncos, 31-25 as a one-point favorite in Peyton Manning’s first season at quarterback in 2012. The Broncos picked up major revenge in the next matchup in 2013 in Houston as Denver captured a 37-13 rout as 10-point favorites. Manning torched the Texans for 400 yards and four touchdown passes, while Houston quarterback Matt Schaub was intercepted twice in the loss.

UNDER THUNDER

The last three Monday night contests have finished UNDER the total, including last week’s 28-3 rout by the Cardinals over the Jets on a 46 total. The Texans have cashed the UNDER in three of their past four primetime games since last November, including in their previous Monday nighter at Cincinnati last season in a 10-6 upset as 10-point underdogs. The Broncos are currently riding a three-game UNDER streak after eclipsing the OVER in their first three contests.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Vince Akins provides several key trends for Monday night, “Despite the overall struggles in last week’s game, the problems for Denver were mainly on the offensive side of the ball. On defense, Denver actually held San Diego to a mere 265 yards of total offense in the loss. And as good as the Broncos’ defense is, they’ve had trouble matching expectations after strong defensive performances the past two years. The Broncos are 0-10 ATS since Nov 16, 2014 as a favorite after allowing less than 300 total yards last game.”

Even though the Broncos’ defense continues to step up, Akins points out another trend working against Denver, “Now looking at the other side of the ball, there is no disputing Denver struggled. While they outgained San Diego on Thursday they turned it into 13 points. The Broncos are 0-8-2 ATS since Oct 31, 2004 as a favorite after a loss where they scored less than 14 points.”

GAME PROPS

Houston

B. Osweiler O/U Completions
Over (-110) – 20½
Under (-110) – 20½

B. Osweiler Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
Over (+130) – 2½
Under (-150) – 2½

D. Hopkins Receiving Yards
Over (-110) – 65½
Under (-110) – 65½

Denver

T. Siemian Gross Passing Yards
Over (-110) – 226½
Under (-110) – 226½

T. Siemian Touchdown Passes
Over (+130) – 1½
Under (-150) – 1½

Will D. Thomas catch a Touchdown Pass?
Yes (+130)
No (-150)

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

The Broncos saddled with a two-game losing streak, the latest a Thursday Night 21-13 spanking at the hands of host Chargers enter the contest 4-2 along with a corresponding 4-2 record against the betting line. In their last effort, the Texans' rallied from a 14-point 4th quarter deficit to defeat Colts 26-23 in OT moving the mark to 4-2 on the campaign with a 3-2-1 record at the betting window.

Broncos haven't lost three consecutive since a three game slide to close the 2011 campaign will certainly be hyped to halt this current skid. However, laying more than a TD seems a little too generous. It does take a certain resolve going against the popular choice. However, grabbing the 9.0 points offered at Bovada.lv where you get the best NFL underdog lines along with 100% Signup Bonus should prove to be a profitable venture. That's because, Broncos have struggled cashing laying seven or more at Sports Authority Field (3-5 ATS), have faltered as home chalk vs a team with a .666% or greater record (1-5 ATS), have stumbled against the betting line as home faves off a loss facing a team off a win (1-3 ATS) and are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight Monday night games.

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