NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 2nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period
WASHINGTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Washington8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
WASHINGTON @ KANSAS CITY
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
NFL Week 4
Redskins (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0) — Washington outgained Raiders 472-128 last Sunday night; they are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdog, 10-7 in game following its last 17 wins; over is 13-4 in Redskins’ last 17 road games. Chiefs are off to 3-0 start, they’re 14-17 as a home favorite under Reid; they’ve run ball for 162 yards/game so far, unusual for a Reid team. Thee of their last five TD drives were less than 45 yards. KC is +5 in turnovers their last two games. Skins allowed only 60.7 rushing yards/game so far this season. KC won last six series games; their last loss to Redskins was in 1983. Washington is 0-4 in Arrowhead, losing by 7-19-21-7 points. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC East teams are 3-3.
Armadillosports.com
MNF - Redskins at Chiefs
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Redskins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) put together a terrific effort in dispatching the Raiders as 3½-point home underdogs, 27-10 last Sunday night. Following a loss in the season opener to Philadelphia, Washington has posted back-to-back victories, as quarterback Kirk Cousins torched the Oakland defense for 365 yards and three touchdown passes. Running back Chris Thompson only racked up 38 yards on the ground, but accumulated 150 yards receiving, including a 22-yard touchdown catch from Cousins.
Washington’s defense shut down Derek Carr and the Raiders by forcing three turnovers, including a pair of interceptions. Oakland managed only 128 yards, a radically different defensive effort after allowing over 330 yards in each of the first two weeks against Philadelphia and Los Angeles. The Redskins improved to 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the underdog role since Week 3 of the 2015 season, while picking up their first victory at FedEx Field since Week 11 against Green Bay last season.
The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are off to their first 3-0 start since Andy Reid’s first season as head coach back in 2013. Kansas City pulled away from Los Angeles, 24-10 to cash as three-point road favorites in Week 3. The Chiefs built an early 14-0 lead, but the Chargers crept back to cut the deficit to 17-10 at halftime. Only seven points were scored in the second half, thanks to a 69-yard touchdown run by rookie standout Kareem Hunt, who finished with 172 yards on 17 carries.
Kansas City beat Los Angeles for the seventh straight time since 2014, while intercepting Philip Rivers three times. Quarterback Alex Smith has yet to commit a turnover as he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 7/0, although he owns only one 300-yard passing game, coming in the season opening victory at New England (368 yards).
NOT SO STRAIGHT ARROWS
The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL, but Kansas City has not helped backers the last few seasons at Arrowhead Stadium. From 2015 through 2016, the Chiefs posted a 5-11 ATS as a home favorite, but won 11 of those 16 games. Kansas City managed a cover as four-point favorites in a Week 2 win over Philadelphia, 27-20, but is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against NFC opponents.
ROAD WARRIORS
Washington has been impressive on the highway since getting blown out at Carolina in November 2015. The Redskins are riding an 8-3-1 run away from FedEx Field in the past 12 road games, including covers against Baltimore and Cincinnati. Amazingly, Jay Gruden’s squad is 8-1 ATS in its last nine opportunities as a road ‘dog, while eclipsing the OVER in each of their past three games prior to the bye week.
TOTAL TALK
The Redskins have hit the OVER in both road contests this season, while riding a seven-game OVER streak away from FedEx Field since Week 8 against Cincinnati in 2016. The Chiefs cashed their first UNDER against the Chargers following a pair of OVERS the first two weeks, while finishing UNDER the total in seven of the past nine games at Arrowhead Stadium.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chiefs have captured each of the past six matchups with the Redskins dating back to 1992, as Kansas City destroyed Washington in the previous meeting in D.C. in 2013 by a 45-10 count. Kansas City jumped out to a 31-0 lead and cruised as Smith threw two touchdown passes, while Jamaal Charles rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins are making their first trip to eastern Missouri since 2005 as they fell to the Chiefs, 28-21 as 6½-point underdogs. The last time the Redskins beat the Chiefs came way back in 1983 at RFK Stadium.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down the bulk of the Chiefs’ success early on, “Hunt leads the NFL in rushing, replacing Spencer Ware who was injured in the preseason. Hunt was a third round pick out of Toledo, so he certainly expected to have promise, but few could have pegged him as clearly the most impactful rookie so far this season. He has gained 8.5 yards per attempt since fumbling on his very first carry in Week 1 at New England. The Chiefs lead the NFL by a wide margin in both rushing yards per game (162.0) and per attempt (6.8 ) with the per attempt number truly outrageous, with Tennessee the only team in the NFL even within two yards of that average.”
The Redskins’ defense will challenge the Kansas City running game according to Nelson, “Washington has allowed just 272 yards per game this season for the fifth best average in the NFL, following finishing as the 5th-worst team in total defense in 2016. Washington has allowed just 62.3 yards per game on the ground, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry as the Chiefs will be tested this week. Washington’s dominant Sunday night showing against Oakland last week is skewing the numbers a bit, but Greg Manusky has done a great job so far in his first season as defensive coordinator.”
Handicapper Vince Akins breaks down a ‘dog trend that supports Washington on Monday night, “The Redskins are 9-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a dog of at least three points, which includes a 7-1-1 SU record.” From a totals standpoint, the Chiefs are in an UNDER spot by going 14-0 to the UNDER (-12.9 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 at home coming off a game as a favorite where they covered but by fewer than 27 points.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Not a lot happening on the spread side of things for this Monday Night Football affair, which means we put out a good number. Only square money thus far, and almost 65 percent of that is on the Chiefs. We’ve adjusted the total a half point up based on a bit of sharp action, but I don’t think it gets any higher, and it will likely drop below the opener as we get closer to kickoff.”
MNF Betting Preview: Washington at Kansas City
Covers.com
Washington at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
Washington vies for their second straight dominating prime-time performance against an AFC West opponent on Monday night when they face the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Washington handed the Oakland Raiders their first loss of the season under the lights on Sunday night, forcing three turnovers and limiting Derek Carr. and Co. to just 128 total yards of offense in a 27-10 rout.
"There was some fundamental clinic tape in that game that I am very, very impressed with," Washington coach Jay Gruden said of his defense that limited the Raiders to 32 rushing yards and did not allow them to convert on third down last week (0-for-11). "Now the standards are set very high around here now. The ability to maintain it is going to be critical for us." That improved defense could have a tall task in corralling electrifying rookie Kareem Hunt, who stepped in for the injured Spencer Ware in the preseason and leads the NFL with 401 rushing yards. The third-round selection ran for 172 yards in a 24-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week and is the first rookie since 1981 to record six touchdowns through his first three career games. Kansas City averages a league-leading 162.0 rushing yards, and its 397.3 yards of total offense is third-best in league.
POWER RANKINGS: Washington (-0.5) - Kansas City (5.5) + home field (-3) = Kansas City -8
LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7-point home chalk and that number dropped to 6.5 on Monday before returning to the opening number later in the week. The total hit the betting board 49.5 and has yet to move. View the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Redskins are coming off a dominating home win last Sunday night versus the Raiders, but now Washington must travel and play another national TV night game against an AFC West opponent. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL this season. Washington QB Kirk Cousins missed two days of practice earlier in the week due to the birth of his first child." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (Probable, Shoulder), RB Samaje Perine (Probable, Hand), S D.J. Swearinger (Questionable, Hamstring), DL Jonathan Allen (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Shoulder), S Montae Nicholson (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Josh Norman (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ribs), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (Early Nov, Abdominal).
Kansas City - OL Parker Ehinger (Probable, Knee), OL Eric Fisher (Questionable, Back), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Groin), Ol Cameron Erving (Questionable, Calf), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, Hip), WR De’Anthony Thomas (Questionable, Shoulder).
ABOUT WASHINGTON (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns last week while boasting a 150.7 passer rating to earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Fresh off his best start of the season, Cousins could also see the returns of two key offensive cogs on Monday as tight end Jordan Reed (ribs, shoulder) and running back Rob Kelley (ribs) each have expressed confidence in getting back to action after a one-game absence. Their respective understudies did quite well in their stead, with veteran tight end Vernon Davis reeling in a touchdown pass and fourth-year back Chris Thompson amassing 188 all-purpose yards and a score in last week's rout. Washington's ground game could pay dividends against a Kansas City defense that is 21st in yards per carry (4.3) and 19th in rushing yards per game (111.7).
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Kansas City has recorded at least one touchdown of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games, with 11 scores in total coming in that stretch. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," quarterback Alex Smith said. Second-year wide receiver Tyreek Hill (team-leading 16 receptions, 253 yards) was responsible for six of those touchdowns while Hunt has three. Tight end Travis Kelce, who has one of those scores, is looking to rebound after a one-reception, one-yard performance on the heels of making eight grabs for 103 yards and a touchdown the previous week.
TRENDS:
* Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 Washington's last 6 Monday games.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in October.
* Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Chiefs at a rate of 56 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.