NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, October 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
DENVER (3 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
NFL Week 8
Broncos (3-3) @ Chiefs (5-2) — KC lost its last two games after a 5-0 start; they ran ball for average of 156.2 ypg in their five wins, 28-94 yards in their two losses. Broncos held five of six opponents to 80 or less rushing yards. Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 26-16 to Bills, 16-0 to Chargers; in their last four games, Broncos scored 3 TD’s on 45 drives- they ran ball 36 times for 115 yards in last two games. Denver scored 19 points on their last nine red zone drives- not good. Chiefs won last three series games, by 16-3-23 points; Denver won five of its last six visits to Arrowhead. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 against the spread. Over is 4-1-2 in Chief games, 0-3 in last three Denver games.
Armadillosports.com
MNF - Broncos at Chiefs
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Broncos (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) began the season at 2-0, but have dropped three of their last four games. Denver’s offense put up 42 points in a Week 2 blowout of Dallas, but the Broncos have scored a total of 42 points in the past four games combined. Vance Joseph’s squad was shut out by the Chargers last Sunday, 21-0 in Los Angeles as one-point favorites. Denver’s offense turned the ball over three times, including a pair of fumbles, while barely breaking the 250-yeard mark.
Denver’s defense wasn’t too bad by allowing Los Angeles to gain 242 yards of offense, but the Chargers scored on two big plays, a 65-yard punt return for a score by Travis Benjamin and Philip Rivers hitting Benjamin on a 42-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Trevor Siemian started the season with six touchdown passes and two interceptions in the first two victories, but the former Northwestern standout has nearly flipped those numbers by throwing only two touchdowns and getting picked off five times.
The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) suffered their second consecutive defeat following a 5-0 start, as Kansas City lost in the final seconds at Oakland, 31-30. Kansas City led, 30-24 until Derek Carr hooked up with Michael Crabtree in the corner of the end zone to end Oakland’s four-game losing streak and give the Chiefs their first two-game skid since October 2015. The Chiefs connected on a pair of 60+ yard touchdown passes as Alex Smith hit Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson, but Carr lit up the Kansas City defense for 417 yards and three touchdowns.
Rookie of the Year candidate Kareem Hunt was held out of the end zone for the fourth straight game, but managed to rack up over 100 all-purpose yards for the seventh time this season. Following that loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-1 in AFC West play, while suffering their first ATS defeat away from Arrowhead Stadium in four tries this season.
BROKEN ARROW
The Chiefs own one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL at Arrowhead Stadium, while winning two of three home contests this season. Kansas City has won seven of its last nine home games against AFC West foes since 2014, but both of those losses came to Denver. Although the Chiefs ripped the Broncos last December, 33-10, Kansas City won’t forget allowing 14 unanswered points in the final minute of a 31-24 setback in 2015 to Denver.
HIGHWAY TO HELL
The Broncos haven’t been able to cash in away from Sports Authority Field recently by posting a 2-6 SU/ATS record since Week 6 of last season. In this stretch, Denver owns a 1-3 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog, while being listed in this role for the first time this season after outright losses as an away favorite at Buffalo and Los Angeles.
RECENT HISTORY
Kansas City swept Denver last season for the first time since 2000 with two dramatically different results. The Chiefs tied the Broncos in the first matchup in Denver with a Smith touchdown pass to Hill in the final seconds, followed by a two-point conversion. The teams would exchange field goals in overtime before Cairo Santos knocked in the game-winning field goal with two seconds left for a 30-27 victory as 3½-point favorites.
The second meeting at Arrowhead Stadium was an early blowout as the Chiefs scored 21 first quarter points highlighted by a 70-yard touchdown and an 80-yard touchdown. Kansas City rushed for 238 yards in a 33-10 rout to easily cash as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Chiefs have won three straight matchups with the Broncos after losing seven consecutive games with Denver from 2012 through 2015.
MONDAY NIGHT DOMINATION
Favorites have rolled under the Monday night lights the last five weeks by picking up victories, while covering four times. The last two weeks have burned the sports books with the Favorite-Over combination, including Philadelphia’s victory over Washington last Monday. Kansas City is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season as the Chiefs pulled away from the Redskins, 29-20 in Week 4 as 6½-point favorites. Denver has won three consecutive Monday nighters, including a 24-21 home victory in Week 1 over Los Angeles.
TOTAL TALK
The Broncos began the season with three consecutive OVERS before finishing UNDER the total in their last three contests. Denver has cashed the UNDER in six of its past nine away from Sports Authority Field, while scoring 16 points or less in its last four road contests. Kansas City’s offense has helped the OVER cash in five of seven games, although the OVER barely cashed in two home wins over Philadelphia and Washington, while finishing UNDER the total in its last contest at Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson breaks down these two AFC West rivals from a defensive perspective, “The statistics paint a huge contrast between these teams on defense with the Chiefs 29th in the league in total defense allowing 396 yards per game. Denver leads the NFL allowing just 258 yards per game, though the Broncos are only 3.3 points per game better in scoring defense. The Broncos are allowing 3.0 yards per rush while the Chiefs allow 4.7 yards per rush while the Broncos yield 6.4 yards per pass attempt compared to 7.8 for the Chiefs.”
Kansas City’s offense hopes to keep putting up solid numbers, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “On offense, the Chiefs lead the NFL gaining 8.7 yards per pass attempt and Smith and the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t thrown an interception. Kansas City also leads the NFL gaining 5.2 yards per rush while Denver is a below average team in both of those statistical rankings as this matchup will feature the league’s top offenses vs. one of the league’s elite defenses.”
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu checks in from the other side of the counter, “We took a little bit of sharp money early on the Chiefs, which prompted a move to -7.5, but then got some smart action on the other side so we’re right back at the open. Feels like a good spread, and if I had to guess, it’d go back up before down. The public is backing the home squad to the tune of 70 percent.”
From the totals perspective, Denver’s struggles offensively may be the reason why the sharps and squares expect a low-scoring affair, “We’ve adjusted the total down 1.5 points so the wiseguys are on that side at this point. And surprisingly, up to this point the squares like the UNDER as well so we’ve got some liability there. Should get some over money from the public Sunday and Monday. Currently, 74 percent of the money is on the UNDER,” Cooley says.
LOOKING AHEAD
Both the Chiefs and Broncos will step out of the conference in Week 9 with road contests against tough NFC East foes. Kansas City travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys as that game opened as a pick-em in the Westgate Superbook early lines released last week. Denver heads to Philadelphia to take on the red-hot Eagles, as the Broncos are back in the road underdog role by receiving 6½ points.
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Covers.com
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 43)
The Kansas City Chiefs reigned supreme in clashes against their AFC West brethren with 12 straight wins before last week's setback in Oakland. The Chiefs look to avenge that defeat and end an overall two-game losing skid on Monday night when they welcome the return of their franchise's all-time leading rusher in Jamaal Charles and the Denver Broncos.
Kansas City has its own dynamic back in rookie Kareem Hunt, who is the only player in NFL history to start his career with seven straight 100-yard scrimmage games. Hunt, who leads the league in yards rushing (717) and is second in yards per carry (5.78), rolled up 117 yards from scrimmage (87 yards rushing, 30 receiving) in a 31-30 loss to the Raiders on Oct. 19. Like the Chiefs, the Broncos have also lost two straight to bring themselves back to the pack in the suddenly congested division heading into Charles' return to Arrowhead Stadium. "I'll always be a Chief ... I have so much history (there)," said the 30-year-old Charles, who needs 44 yards from scrimmage to reach 10,000 for his career. "Lot of sad memories, lot of happy memories. At the end of the day, I'm just going out there to play football."
POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (1) - Chiefs (-4) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -6
LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home chalk and briefly went down to an even -7 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 42 and was quickly bet up to 44 and steadily been fading to the current number of 42.5. View the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Broncos - TE A.J. Derby (Questionable, Shoulder), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Hand), TE Virgil Green (Questionable, Shoulder), S Will Parks (Questionable, Shoulder), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), WR Cody Latimer (Questionable, Knee), OT Menelik Watson (Questionable, Calf), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Questionable, Ankle), WR Isaiah McKenzie (Questionable, Ankle), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist).
Chiefs - OL Mitch Morse (Probable, Foot), RB Charcandrick West (Probable, Concussion), LB Justin Houston (Questionable, Knee), OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), OL Parker Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), LB Dadi Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB Tamba Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB Steven Nelson (Questionable Week 9, Abdominal).
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Trevor Siemian became the talk of the town following Denver's disastrous 21-0 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the conversation was anything but positive after the team's first shutout loss in a quarter-century. "I have to play better. It starts with me," the second-year starter said. "... Guys are frankly embarrassed with what we put out there last Sunday. We have to play better. I have to play better. Everybody knows that." C.J. Anderson has been held in check after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, as he totaled just 61 on the ground over the last two.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Alex Smith is shedding the "game manager" label that has followed him around for the majority of his career in favor of perhaps another title: mid-season NFL MVP candidate. The top overall pick of the 2005 draft eclipsed 300 yards passing and three touchdowns for the third time this season to give him 15 scoring strikes and no interceptions. Trusted target Travis Kelce found the end zone last week versus the Raiders and has reeled in at least one reception in 55 consecutive contests. Kelce gashed the Broncos for season highs in catches (11) and receiving yards (160) with a touchdown in a 33-10 victory last Christmas.
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The home fave Chiefs are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 54 percent of the totals selections.
Monday's Best NFL Bet
By BetOnline.ag
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Kansas City (-7); Total set at 42
The AFC West takes center stage to close out Week 8 as two struggling teams on losing streaks do battle in Kansas City tonight.
It's tough to really say Kansas City is “struggling” with a 5-2 SU record, but they've lost two in a row (vs Pittsburgh and @ Oakland), as injuries have started to mount on both sides of the ball. Kansas City still has the potential to build their lead to three games in the division with a victory this evening, and as home favorites of a TD, oddsmakers like the Chiefs chances of doing so.
Given how the Broncos have played in recent weeks it's easy to see why a number like this was hung on the board, as Denver's been downright awful the past two weeks, and borderline going on a month– specifically on offense. Last week's shut out loss to the Chargers of all teams was embarrassing, but it still wasn't embarrassing as the 23-10 home loss as 13.5-point home favorites against a Giants team that had practice squad receivers as the only guys on the outside.
The Broncos offense has progressively gotten worse over the past month with scores of 16, 16, 10, and 0 the past four weeks, and the organization could have a mutiny led by the defense on their hands soon if the Broncos offensive players don't start carrying their own weight.
After two straight weeks of baffling offensive performances, there aren't many bettors out there that have an iota of faith in Denver right now. Shutouts have happened with a bit more frequency this year, but to get blanked by the Chargers a week after the Broncos were never really in the game as double digit home favorites against a decimated New York Giants team has to have the Broncos organization at the ready to push the panic button. But we all know that things can change rather quickly on a week-to-week basis in the NFL, and a second crack under the prime-time lights in three weeks gives the Broncos a chance for redemption. This has got to be the ultimate “buy low” spot on a team that can't score points but still has a very talented defense that ranks #1 in the league in yards allowed per game.
Kansas City enters tonight after losing a wild game with an even wilder finish to the Raiders on TNF in Week 7. Bettors who backed the Chiefs that day had to be sick to their stomach with how that game against Oakland finished, and now KC has to find a way to rebound in the midst of this tough stretch in their schedule.
Four straight weeks of facing the likes of Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, and Dallas is as tough a stretch as any, but considering the extra rest they've had since that Oakland defeat, and how bad Denver has looked lately, it's no surprise to see Kansas City garnering about 65% of the support tonight.
However, even with the extra rest, I see this spot as one that's better to grab the points with a Broncos team nobody really wants to touch right now. Denver's offense really has nowhere to go but up at the moment, and sometimes all it takes is one strong drive or one big play that takes the cap off the opposing defense and confidence is restored. Kansas City has started to show the affects of being without S Eric Berry in the secondary the past few weeks, and it's not like Denver QB Trevor Siemian doesn't have talented weapons to work with.
Siemian's play has been a big cause for concern during this recent bad stretch for Denver, but this is a guy that threw for 3 TD's and 368 yards in one of his two games against KC a year ago, and that was with Berry patrolling the secondary for KC. Siemian is more than capable of having a solid day against KC tonight, and if Denver's defense – the clear strength of their team – can get a turnover or two, the Broncos will be in fine position to possibly pull off the outright upset.
I'm not willing to go that far yet with Denver as it's not like I completely trust them to all of a sudden turn things around, but their defense is too good not to at least give their offense a chance to keep this one close. Falling three full games (essentially 3.5 with a head-to-head loss vs KC) behind the Chiefs in the division race could be the death blow to Denver's AFC West title races, so expect them to actually show up this week on both sides of the ball.
With the road team being 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these two, the underdog on a 5-1 ATS run, and KC on a 1-6 ATS run after allowing 30+, I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos tonight as an “ugly dog” that shows it's best side on MNF.
Best Bet: Denver +7