NFL Betting News and Notes Monday, October 6

NFL Week 5

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3) — Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

Armadillosports.com

Hawks listed as MNF favorites
By Sportsbook.ag

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Seattle -7, Total: 46

The Redskins look to rebound from a bad Week 4 performance with a home victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks on Monday night.

Seattle is coming off its bye week, prior to which it won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns from QB Russell Wilson, who faces a Redskins’ defense that allowed 300 yards and 4 TD passes in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday. Washington has now given up 82 points and 828 yards during its two-game losing skid.

The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6, 2013 when the Seahawks won 24-14 on the road. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards. Four of the past six games played between these teams in Washington have gone Over the total.

In the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 28-12 ATS (70%) in all lined games, including 11-3 ATS (79%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle, however, is 7-18 ATS (28%) after a bye week since 1992.

TEs Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Niles Paul (concussion), OT Trent Williams (knee), LB Akeem Jordan (knee) and DE Kedric Golston (groin) are are listed as questionable for Washington.

Seattle is in pretty good shape injury-wise after its bye week, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, and both LB Bruce Irvin (ribs) and CB Tharold Simon (knee) are both questionable for Monday's game.

The Seahawks escaped their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos in their last game, winning 26-20 in overtime at home. Their defense continues to be a nightmare to run against, allowing just 72.3 yards per game on the ground (5th in NFL) on an NFL-best 2.8 yards per carry. They’ll try to take Redskins top RB Alfred Morris out of this game and make Kirk Cousins beat them through the air. Cousins is coming off of a miserable performance, and Seattle’s defense will apply pressure early to prevent him from getting comfortable, but its pass defense has been lit up for 572 passing yards and 5 TD over the past two games.

Offensively, the Seahawks are all about controlling the pace of the game. They’ll feature RB Marshawn Lynch (234 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) heavily in the early going, although the Redskins are allowing just 87.0 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (651 pass yards, 7.5 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) is likely salivating over this matchup. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in every game this season and could be even more effective against this Redskins passing defense that was downright embarrassing versus the Giants last week. Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll, will try to find clever ways to get the ball into WR Percy Harvin’s hands. The lightning-quick wide receiver leads the team in targets (17), catches (15) and receiving yards (106), and has the ability to hurt defenses as a pass catcher, but also with jet sweeps and wide receiver reverses. He is a dynamic open-field runner, who has gained 86 yards on just six carries (14.3 YPC) this year.

The Redskins will do everything they can to move past their horrible performance against the Giants in Week 4. QB Kirk Cousins (934 pass yards, 8.2 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT) will need to look at the tape and find ways to take better care of the football. He was blindly throwing the ball around the field against the Giants and was responsible for five of his team's six turnovers with 4 INT and one lost fumble. If he does that again, the ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary will do plenty of damage. WR Pierre Garcon (24 rec, 255 yards, 1 TD) is a key player in this game, as he’ll need to use his quickness to get open against the Seahawks’ zone. Garcon had just two catches for 28 yards against the Giants, but he also had a bad Week 2 and responded with 11 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

The Redskins will lean on RB Alfred Morris (316 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) plenty in this game. The Seahawks have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, but the last time these teams played, Morris rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries. Washington would be wise to stick with what was working the last time they played this team.

The tight end position is something to monitor in this game. Kirk Cousins loves to get his tight ends involved, but he could be without both injured TEs Jordan Reed and Niles Paul (21 rec, 313 yards, 1 TD) on Sunday.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Monday Night Football: Seahawks at Redskins
By Covers.com

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+7.5, 45)

The Washington Redskins will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance against the Seattle Seahawks when the clubs square off in the nation's capital on Monday night. Washington is 11-4 in the all-time regular-season series and has won each of the last six matchups, including a 23-17 triumph at Seattle on Nov. 27, 2011, in which Roy Helu Jr. accumulated 162 total yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks haven't defeated the Redskins since posting a 24-14 home victory on Sept. 20, 1998, when they still were members of the AFC West.

Washington's season has gotten off to a disappointing start, with Robert Griffin III going down with an ankle injury in the club's lone win in Week 2 and backup Kirk Cousins guiding the team to two straight defeats - extending his personal losing streak to five starts in the process. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are coming off their bye week after registering a thrilling 26-20 overtime triumph over Denver in Week 3. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is off to a strong start, completing 60-of-87 passes for 651 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception over his first three games.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Seahawks as 7-point road faves, but are now -7.5. The total opened at 46 and dropped to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, ribs). Redskins - DB Trenton Robinson (Questionable, ankle), LB Akeem Jordan (Questionable, knee), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), TE Niles Paul (Questionable, concussion).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.75) + Redskins (3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7.75

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "There has been an interesting pattern this season in the NFL where teams are getting blown out on Thursday night, then bouncing back with a solid effort in their next game. It's happened each of the past two weeks with both the Steelers and then Buccaneers winning outright as an underdog after blowout Thursday night losses. It makes sense as these teams get a semi-bye week with the extra rest and preparation time. Washington is now in this bounce back situation as the Redskins were awful in their loss to the Giants with a 6-1 turnover deficit. Seattle is also in a good situation as they have the benefit of a bye week to recover and regroup after their high profile overtime win against the Broncos two weeks ago. Seattle should also be fully focused for this game especially since it's a national TV Monday night matchup." Covers Expert Steve Merrill.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Seattle will be without tight end Zach Miller, who is expected to miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery last week. Percy Harvin is proving to be a triple threat as he leads the team in both receptions (16) and receiving yards (106), has gained another 86 yards on six rushes and is averaging 20.1 yards on seven kickoff returns. Punter Jon Ryan was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after averaging 48.3 yards on 12 punts.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Washington figures to put pressure on Wilson as it leads the NFL with 11 sacks, including five by league co-leader Ryan Kerrigan. The linebacker is one-half sack away from becoming the eighth player in team history to record 30. Alfred Morris needs 156 rushing yards to pass Mike Thomas (3,359) for eighth place on the franchise list and two touchdowns on the ground to leap past Cliff Battles (23) and tie Earnest Byner (25) for seventh.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Redskins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last eight vs. NFC

COVERS CONSENSUS: 65 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the Seahawks.

MNF - Seahawks at Redskins
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Redskins are featured on national television for the second straight week, as Washington hopes to turn in a better performance than it did last week against the Giants. The task doesn’t get easier, hosting the defending champion Seahawks on Monday night, as Seattle is fresh off its bye week, while seeking its first road win of the season.

Starting with Washington, the Redskins embarrassed themselves last Thursday night in a 45-14 home setback to the Giants as three-point home favorites. New York racked up 449 yards of offense on Washington, while Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions in his second start of the season. Washington turned the ball over six times in the loss, as the Redskins held the ball for only 23 minutes. Washington’s opponents scored 27 points in the first two weeks, but the Eagles and Giants combined to score 82 points in the past two games.

The Seahawks last took the field in Week 3, knocking off the Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch, 26-20 in overtime. Seattle grabbed a 17-3 advantage, seven months after steamrolling Denver, 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII to win the franchise’s first title. The Broncos didn’t fold as easily this time around, scoring a late touchdown in regulation to force overtime, tying the game at 20-20 as four-point underdogs. Marshawn Lynch scored the game-winning touchdown in OT from six yards out to give the Seahawks the cover, but the game stayed ‘under’ the total of 48.

Pete Carroll’s team won seven of eight road games last season, but dropped its first contest away from CenturyLink Field this season. Seattle dropped a 30-21 decision at San Diego in Week 2 as 4½-point favorites, the first win of a current four-game winning streak for the Chargers. Seattle held the ball for less than 18 minutes in that defeat, while allowing more than 19 points for the first time in the past five road games.

The last time these teams met up came in the Wild Card round of the 2012 season at FedEx Field. The Redskins built a 14-0 first quarter lead before the Seahawks scored three unanswered touchdowns to take a 21-14 advantage in the fourth quarter. Robert Griffin III tore his ACL minutes after Lynch’s go-ahead score in the final quarter, sealing Washington’s fate in a 24-14 defeat. The Seahawks advanced to the divisional round, while covering as three-point road favorites to win the franchise’s first away playoff game since 1983.

Since the 17-6 loss at Houston in the opener, Jay Gruden’s squad has hit the ‘over’ in three straight games, even though Washington’s only win came against 0-5 Jacksonville, 41-10 in Week 2. Griffin remains out with an ankle injury suffered in that victory over the Jaguars, as Cousins has thrown for 934 yards and six touchdowns with five interceptions in three games.

The Seahawks have won eight straight Monday night games since 2005, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS under Carroll. Last season, Seattle failed to cover as 13-point road favorites in a 14-9 victory at St. Louis, as the Seahawks held the Rams out of the end zone on a goal-to-go on the final play of the game. The Seahawks have cashed six of their past eight as an away favorite of single-digits, while winning in all three trips to the East Coast last season.

The Redskins have been dreadful on Mondays since 2008, losing seven of eight times, including six losses at FedEx Field. Last season, Washington lost twice on Monday night football, allowing 60 points in defeats to Philadelphia and San Francisco. The only victory for Washington in this span came against the Giants in 2012, edging New York, 17-16 as three-point underdogs as part of a seven-game winning streak en route to the NFC East title.

Washington is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as the Redskins are 4-10 ATS when receiving points since 2013. The Redskins haven’t been a home ‘dog of at least a touchdown since 2011, when they barely covered as 7½-point underdogs in a 34-27 setback to New England. Last season, Washington cashed just two of six times at home in the ‘dog role, as three of those games closed with the Redskins as one-point ‘dogs (1-2 SU/ATS).

The Seahawks are currently seven-point favorites with the total set at 45½. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60’s with clear skies as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins

Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (2-1 SU/ATS) off a bye week have opened 7.5 point road favorites against the Washington Redskins (1-3, 2-2 ATS) who enter off a 45-14 shellacking at the hands of Giants. Taking points with a home squad is always a tempting proposition. However, home underdogs haven't exactly been great bets the past two seasons posting a 51-54-2 ATS record including 8-7-1 ATS this season. And, it certainly doesn't help that home underdogs off a 21 point spanking are just 9-17 ATS the next game. Finally, road favorites off a bye week being a profitable 57-27-1 against the betting line, Seahawks 3-1 ATS under Monday Night Light's and 12-6 ATS as chalk of 7.5 or less in the Pete Carroll era provides a strong endorsement for playing Seattle.

Seahawks vs. Redskins Betting Preview and Pick
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

On Monday night, Washington hosts Seattle at FedEx Field (8:30 p.m., ESPN).

And for some handicappers, that is all they will need to know to make a decision.

Playing against Washington at home on “Monday Night Football” has long been a profitable angle. Since 1997, Washington is just 2-12 straight-up and against the spread at FedEx Field. From Norv Turner to Steve Spurrier to Joe Gibbs to Jim Zorn to Mike Shanahan, Monday-night woes have a constant for Washington.

But rarely has Washington (1-2) been as big a home underdog as it is against Seattle, which is favored by about a touchdown. This is only 14th time Washington has been an underdog of 7-plus points since 1978. And it’s a role the franchise has played well. Washington is 8-5 against the spread getting a touchdown or more at home, though just 3-10 straight-up.

The 2-1 Seahawks, for their part, are 1-1 against the number and 2-0 straight-up as favorites of 7-plus points in Pete Carroll’s time as head coach, winning and covering at the Giants (-9) and winning but failing to cover at the Rams (-14) last season.

And since we’re on a real history kick, here’s another Seattle stat: since 1978, road favorites of 7-plus points are 18-19 against the spread in Monday-night games.

How this all relates to a game played on the first Monday night in October in 2014? As always, that’s for the handicappers to decide.

The Line: Seahawks -7, Total: 45.5

Line movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -6.5, but the spread was bet up to -7.5 the following day. The line has since been bouncing between 7 and 7.5 around Las Vegas, and the total is between 45.5 and 46.

Trends that matter: Carroll-coached teams are just 3-6-1 against the spread in their first game off the bye.

The Seahawks are 18-3 straight-up as favorites of 7 points or more under Carroll, but they are just 9-11-1 against the spread in those games.

The OVER is 13-10 in Seahawks games with a total of 45 or more in Carroll’s tenure.

Washington is 1-3 against the spread this season, while Seattle is 2-1 against the spread.

Seattle is 2-1 to the OVER this season, Washington is 3-1 O/U.

Note: Historical point spread trends are cited from the Spreadapedia database .

Washington’s run defense must be stout: Overall, Washington has been strong against the run, with opponents gaining just 3.3 yards per carry. However, Washington allowed season-highs in yards (154) and yards per carry (4.1) in the blowout loss to the Giants in Week 4. Seattle has an excellent and varied ground game, with running back Marshawn Lynch, quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Percy Harvin all top rushing threats at their positions.

Pass rush lacking for Washington: Though Washington has a respectable 11 sacks on the season, 10 came in one game against overmatched Jacksonville. If Wilson is allowed to sit back and scan the field, he will feast on Washington’s secondary. On the other hand, if Washington is undisciplined in its rush, Wilson will capitalize, too.

Cousins needs to strike a balance: In 5-of-11 career regular season appearances, Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple interceptions. After a five-turnover performance against New York, it wouldn’t be surprising if Cousins were prudent on Monday night. But Cousins also needs to cut it loose when there’s a play to be made. Trying to beat Seattle with a series of short gains isn’t going to work.

Nor can Washington lean on its ground game. The Seahawks are surrendering just 2.8 yards per carry. It’s going to be tough work for tailback Alfred Morris, so it’s on Cousins and the passing game to spark Washington’s offense.

While that’s a tall order, it’s not impossible. The Seahawks have allowed six passing touchdowns in three games, and opponents are completing 68.9 percent of their attempts. If Cousins plays well, Washington has a chance.

If he doesn’t . . . well, it will be another long night in prime time for Washington.

Injuries that matter: While Washington lists 14 players on the injury report, most were able to get some work on Thursday, perhaps a good sign. Tight ends Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Niles Paul (concussion) were each on the practice field, as were left tackle Trent Williams (knee), wideout DeSean Jackson (shoulder) and outside linebacker Brian Orakpo (finger).

The Seahawks are in good shape, though starting tight end Zach Miller (ankle) is out. Running back Lynch is on the injury report, but he was just getting his usual rest day to begin the week.

Weather: Weather should not be a factor, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s, high 50s in the forecast. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers lean: The Redskins have lost 11 of their last 12 games, but we're expecting more out of this team. Ranked No. 12 in the Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings, Washington has the talent to improve under Jay Gruden. Our numbers give Seattle a 5.5-point edge on a neutral field , so this looks like way too big a number for the Seahawks to be laying on the road. We'll also look for these teams to continue trending OVER. Washington +7.5, OVER 45.5 are the plays.