NFL Betting News and Notes Monday, October13

NFL Week 6

49ers (3-2) @ Rams (1-3) — Home team is honoring ’99 Super Bowl champs tonite, current Rams are 4-13-1 in last 18 games vs their rival, losing 35-11/23-13 in two meetings LY, when backup QB Clemens was playing. This year’s backup QB Davis has proven to be more capable starter; Rams scored seven TDs on 22 drives in losing last two games, when they led Dallas 21-0 and finished on 21-0 run at Philly, but in between those two runs they were outscored 68-17—young Rams make too many mistakes. Thru four games, St Louis was penalized 305 yards, their opponents 105. 49ers split last four visits here; they’ve scored only two TDs, six FGs on last eight red zone drives, winning last two games by five points each, after losses to Bears, Cards.

Armadillosports.com

Rams look for MNF upset
By Sportsbook.ag

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-2) at ST. LOUIS RAMS (1-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -3, Total: 44
Opening Line & Total: San Francisco -3, Total: 44

The 49ers head visit the Rams on Monday night for a game that they can’t afford to lose.

San Francisco came away with a 22-17 home victory over Kansas City last week, and is now facing a St. Louis offense that looked good in a 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. The 49ers are allowing just 209.0 yards per game through the air (4th in NFL) and 73.8 YPG on the ground (5th in NFL), so it will be a tough matchup for Rams QB Austin Davis who is coming off of a huge 3-TD performance against Philly in Week 5.

The 49ers are 9-2-1 SU in the past dozen meetings between these clubs, but the teams have split these games 6-6 ATS. However, San Francisco beat St. Louis by double-digits in both meetings last year, winning by a combined score of 58 to 24. Last year, the Niners were 6-0 ATS in road games after the first month of the season, and are also 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons. However, St. Louis is 6-1 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games in that span.

The Rams could be without star RB Zac Stacy (calf), who was injured in the loss to the Eagles, but it appears both he and Niners TE Vernon Davis (back) will be able to suit up for this contest.

Since a disastrous 3-INT performance in a 28-20 loss to the Bears in Week 2, QB Colin Kaepernick (1,113 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) has really stepped up his play. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown four touchdown passes and only one interception. He’s taking much better care of the football and has also run the ball very well. He’ll need to use his legs when plays break down against a solid Rams’ secondary.

Last season, Kaepernick threw for 442 yards (8.7 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT in the two wins over St. Louis. RB Frank Gore (365 rush yards, 1 TD) has been running wild the past two weeks with back-to-back games rushing for at least 100 yards and he’ll get a lot of touches against the Rams, as the 49ers will try to control the tempo in this one.

In the past eight meetings in this series, Gore has rushed for 626 yards (4.1 YPC) and 7 TD, which includes 153 yards on 7.7 YPC when he visited St. Louis last year. One player who will really need to turn things around is WR Michael Crabtree (25 rec, 246 yards, 2 TD), who was excellent in Week 2 and Week 3, but caught just six passes for 59 yards over the past two weeks. Crabtree is Kaepernick’s go-to-guy in the passing game and will need to be a more reliable player going forward.

This 49ers' defense has been relentless all season (10 takeaways) and should make life on Austin Davis extremely difficult.

St. Louis fell to 1-3 (SU and ATS) after last week’s shootout loss against the Eagles. The Rams were down 34-7 at one point in the game, but QB Austin Davis (1,129 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) would ultimately fall just short of rallying his team for a dramatic comeback win. Davis was 29-of-49 for 375 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He did, however, lost two fumbles. Davis will now be up against a much better defense, so taking care of the ball will be crucial for this entire offense that has nine turnovers in four games this year.

WR Brian Quick (21 rec, 322 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a serious playmaker on the outside for St. Louis. He had five catches for 87 yards and 2 TD in the loss to the Eagles, and he should be able to use his size and speed to break open at least a few times against the 49ers.

One player the Rams could really use is RB Zac Stacy (223 rush yards, 1 TD). Stacy is questionable for this game and if he doesn’t play, his powerful running would really be missed. Last year versus San Francisco, he carried the ball 19 times for 71 yards (3.8 YPC).

Despite allowing more than 30 points in three different games this season, the Rams defense has been strong against the pass, They’re allowing an NFL-best 192.3 yards per game through the air, but also give up 152.5 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL). They could have a lot of trouble containing Kaepernick and Gore on the ground.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Monday Night Football: 49ers at Rams
By Covers.com

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3, 43.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have not been fazed by the soap opera involving their head coach and will go for their third consecutive victory when they visit the St. Louis Rams on Monday night in an NFC West matchup. Rumors of dissension permeating the locker room prompted 49ers team owner Jed York to publicly defend coach Jim Harbaugh prior to last week's 22-17 home victory over Kansas City. "I love Coach Harbaugh," quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "I'd go to war with him any day of the week."

San Francisco coughed up second-half leads in back-to-back losses to Chicago and Arizona but rebounded with a pair of stellar defensive performances in home wins over Philadelphia and the Chiefs. A bye week did little to rectify the defensive issues of the Rams, who have surrendered 34 points in each of their three setbacks. The 49ers, winners of six straight on Monday night, posted a pair of double-digit victories over St. Louis last season after going 0-2-1 in their three previous matchups against the Rams.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 3.5-point home dogs, but that is presently +3. The total has held at 43.5.

INJUR REPORT: 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Questionable, knee), TE Vernon Davis (Questionable, back), CB Tramaine Brock (Questionable, toe). Rams - LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (Questionable, groin), WR Kenny Britt (Questionable, knee), CB Trumaine Johnson (Questionable, knee), RB Zac Stacy (Questionable, calf).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-3.75) - Rams (+2.75) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -3.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "San Francisco travels to St. Louis on Monday night following two straight home wins. The 49ers have covered eight of last nine Monday night games. Denver on deck. St. Louis has back-to-back home games against San Francisco and Seattle before a three-game roadtrip. 0-6 ATS L6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards." Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U): Ageless Frank Gore became the oldest running back in team history with consecutive 100-yard games since 1960, but he knows there's room for improvement after San Francisco settled for five field goals by Phil Dawson in last week's win. "We have to get better," Gore said of the team's struggles in the red zone. "Watch the tape and clean up whatever it is. We just have to get better." Kaepernick has yet to throw for more than 248 yards this season but should be helped by the expected return of tight end Vernon Davis, who has missed two games with ankle and back injuries. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the league with an average of 284.8 total yards allowed and is among the top five in rushing (77.2) and passing yards (205.6).

ABOUT THE RAMS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): St. Louis is coming off a pair of narrow losses, blowing a 21-point lead in a 34-31 setback to Dallas before a furious comeback came up short in last week's 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. "I think we’re a good football team," rookie quarterback Austin Davis said. "The record is what it is, but we’re a couple plays here and there from being where we want to be. We’ve got to stay the course. I think we’re headed in the right direction." Davis, who started the season as the third-string quarterback before injuries to Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill, threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns versus the Eagles. However, Davis could be without starting running back Zac Stacy, who missed Thursday's practice due to a calf injury sustained in last week's game.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last four vs. NFC West.
* Under is 7-2 in Rams last nine games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 75 percent of wagers are backing the 49ers.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams

San Francisco off a pair of close home victories defeating Eagles 26-21 and most recently slipping past Chiefs 22-17 head into St Louis to take on the Rams. Division games are always tough. Spotting road points within the division can be dangerous. However, in this case the Niners' as small favorites (-3) are the wise investment. Niners' are comfortable playing under Monday Night Light's (8-1 ATS), thrive as small favorite (23-8-1 ATS) and have been good bets during pumpkin month (11-4 ATS). Finally, another area in which Niners' excel at the betting window is when they win the ground game by 50 or more yards (13-2 ATS) a situation that looks promising considering Rams can't stop the run and must contend with the presence of Niners' strong ground game behind Frank Gore (365 RY), Carlos Hyde (132 RY), Colin Kaepernick (205 RY).

MNF - 49ers at Rams
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NFC West race continues to stay interesting through the first six weeks, but the favorites to win the division, the Seahawks and 49ers, are currently behind the 4-1 Cardinals. There is still a long way to go, but Arizona isn’t letting up after a surprising 10-6 season in 2013.

San Francisco tries to move into second place all by themselves with a victory tonight at St. Louis to wrap up Week 6 of the NFL season. The 49ers have seen their ups and downs through five games with a 3-2 record, while opening up a brand new stadium in Santa Clara after 42 seasons at Candlestick Park. Jim Harbaugh’s team blew a 20-7 fourth quarter lead to Chicago in the debut at Levi’s Stadium in Week 2, falling 27-20. But, the Niners have protected their home field in the past two weeks with five-point victories over the Eagles and Chiefs.

After not allowing an offensive touchdown in a 26-21 comeback win over Philadelphia, the San Francisco defense stepped once again in a 22-17 triumph over old friend Alex Smith and the Chiefs. The Niners covered as 4½-point favorites, while converting three Phil Dawson field goals in the second half to grind out their third win of the season. The San Francisco defense stepped up by limiting Kansas City to 14 first downs and 265 yards of offense.

The Rams enter tonight’s action trying to sure up its defense after giving up 34 points in each of the past two losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. Granted, those two NFC East clubs are a combined 10-2 on the season, but St. Louis squandered a 21-0 lead against Dallas in a Week 3 home loss to fall 34-31. Rookie quarterback Austin Davis is now the man under center since Sam Bradford ripped up his ACL in the preseason, as the former Southern Mississippi standout threw three touchdown passes against the Cowboys, but was also picked off twice.

St. Louis had to play the role of the team digging out of the hole last Sunday at Philadelphia, falling behind the red-hot Eagles, 34-7 in third quarter. The money flowed in on the Rams, dropping the line from seven to 3½, so all that sharp money seemed pretty flat. However, Davis led the Rams’ rally with three touchdown drives in an 11-minute span to get St. Louis within 34-28 with less than five minutes remaining. However, several Rams receivers dropped key passes on their final drive, which would have given St. Louis a miraculous comeback, but it fell short and dropped its record to 1-3.

Two seasons ago, when the 49ers played in the Super Bowl, San Francisco didn’t beat St. Louis in two meetings, losing at the Edward James Dome and tying the Rams at Candlestick Park. Harbaugh’s team picked up revenge in 2013 with a pair of double-digit victories over St. Louis, including a dominating 35-11 rout in Eastern Missouri on a September Thursday night as three-point road favorites. The Rams were limited to 188 yards of offense, while Frank Gore ran all over St. Louis with 153 yards, including a 34-yard touchdown scamper late in the first half to give San Francisco a 14-3 lead.

In spite of last season’s victory at the Edward Jones Dome, the Niners have split the last four visits to St. Louis since 2010, while San Francisco is just 2-5 SU/ATS in their past seven road games against NFC West foes. But, Harbaugh’s squad is a solid bet as an away favorite since the start of the 2013 season, posting a 7-1-1 ATS record, with the lone setback coming at Arizona in Week 3.

Jeff Fisher’s squad is winless in two home contests this season after closing out 2013 with three consecutive victories on their turf. The Rams could be in major trouble (if they aren’t already) ahead with Seattle coming to town next week, followed by this fun gauntlet on the road of Kansas City, San Francisco, and Arizona in three straight weeks. Oh, then the Broncos invade the Edward Jones Dome in Week 11 followed by a trip to San Diego.

Just to kick the Rams while their down, this is their first division contest of the season. St. Louis compiled a 1-5 SU/ATS record against their division rivals last season, with the lone victory coming in Week 1 against Arizona erasing an 11-point second half deficit in a 27-24 win as 3 ½-point favorites.

The primetime games have leaned towards the ‘over’ this season, in spite of the ‘under’ in the Eagles/Giants game last night. Through 18 night contests, the ‘over’ has cashed 14 times, including a 4-2 mark on Mondays. Is there any good news for the Rams tonight? Underdogs are 4-2 ATS on Monday nights this season, while home ‘dogs are 3-2 ATS in primetime action.

From a totals perspective, the 49ers have cashed the ‘under’ in three straight games and own a 4-1 ‘under’ mark this season. The Rams hit the ‘under’ in the first two weeks, but have seen the ‘over’ cash in the past two high-scoring contests. In the last six divisional matchups at home, St. Louis is 4-2 to the ‘under.’

San Francisco is currently a three-point favorite at most spots, but expect that number to jump to 3½ by kick off as bettors need to lay at least -120 at several books if you want to get the 3. The total sits between 43 ½ and 44, which is actually the highest number the Niners have had in a road NFC West matchup under Harbaugh. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

49ers vs. Rams Betting Preview and Pick
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

It has been 11 years since the Rams finished with a winning record, and through four games this season, the Rams have just one victory to their credit. They are winless at home entering Monday night’s game against San Francisco (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with losses to Minnesota and Dallas early setbacks. The Rams have two games against defending-champion Seattle still to come, including a matchup against the Seahawks next week in St. Louis.

After that, the Rams (1-3 SU and ATS) go on the road for four out of their next five games, with their only home contest against Denver.

In short, there may be no saving the 2014 Rams. Even a win Monday night might not alter the course of their season. It’s likely they will rue those early home defeats to the Vikings and the Cowboys. Those are the sort of wins they probably needed to snatch up to make the postseason for the first time since 2004.

Still, at the three-quarters pole of their season, the Rams could, conceivably, still have a little run in them. Their play Monday night versus San Francisco could be telling. The 49ers (3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS) haven’t had it easy this season. Their wins, save for the opener against sloppy Dallas, have been real fights. Four of their five games have gone UNDER. Perhaps the Rams can pull out an ugly-but-beautiful “W” with their season on the brink.

The question is, can the Rams prevail in such a slugfest with the tough Niners? Well, Jeff Fisher-coached clubs have had a knack for stepping up on Monday nights. Overall, Fisher’s Titans (1995-2010) and Rams (2012-present) are 10-6 against the spread on Mondays, with nine straight-up wins.

However, if the Rams win on Monday night, they will have accomplished something a Fisher team has never done. His clubs are 0-3 straight-up as home underdogs on Mondays, including a 14-9 loss to Seattle last season.

The Line: 49ers -3.5, Total: 43.5

Line movement: San Francisco -3.5 with an OVER-UNDER of 43.5 has been the most common line/total combination in Nevada. Still, it’s notable that major sports book operators William Hill and CG Technology are dealing San Francisco -3 (-125). Both made the move on Tuesday, per VegasInsider.com point spread records. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Since 1978, road teams are 118-102-7 against the spread in divisional games played on a Monday (53.7 percent).

The 49ers are 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread on Mondays under coach Jim Harbaugh.

The Rams are 9-9 straight up and against the spread at home in Fisher’s tenure.

The Rams are 10-7-1 against the spread (58.8 percent) and 8-8-1 straight-up off a loss under Fisher.

Note: Historical point spread trends are cited from the Spreadapedia database.

Rams’ run defense will be key: The Rams have yet to hold any of their opponents to less than 123 yards rushing, and all racked up at least 4.2 yards per rush. In the first meeting with the Rams in 2013, the 49ers ran wild, rushing for 219 yards on 40 carries in victory. In the rematch, the Rams tightened up vs. the run, allowing just 83 yards on 30 attempts, but 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick countered with 275 yards passing on 19-of-28 completions as San Francisco swept the season series. The Rams have had trouble with the rushing of Kaepernick and tailback Frank Gore in the last two seasons, with Kaepernick impressing in 2012 and Gore racking up 153 yards in the first meeting between the teams last season. Slowing Gore, the Niners’ primary ball-carrier, should be the Rams’ top priority.

Pass rushes under pressure: Both teams have had their issues getting after the quarterback. The Rams have just one sack in four games, with the 49ers tallying just five in five games. The 49ers are averaging eight hurries per game, according to Pro Football Focus, with the Rams averaging 7.3. Both clubs are missing key rushers; the Rams are without defensive end Chris Long (ankle – short term injured reserve), while the 49ers are lacking suspended outside linebacker Aldon Smith for another four games. But it’s not as if the cupboard is bare for both defenses. Let’s see if either club can find a spark, with Rams defensive end Robert Quinn a player to watch.

Davis doing his part for Rams: Since replacing the injured Shaun Hill in Week 1, Rams second-year quarterback Austin Davis has more than carried his weight for St. Louis, connecting on 67.8 percent of his passes (97-of-143) for 1,129 yards with six touchdowns and five turnovers in 3.5 games of action. But the San Francisco defense presents a stern test for Davis, even if the pass rush is a little lacking. The 49ers are stout against the run and might be able to force the Rams into some obvious passing situations. In those cases, he'll need to balance the need to make plays with the need to take care of the ball.

Injuries that matter: 49ers tight end Vernon Davis (back) has been dealing with various ailments for much of the season. If he’s out or limited on Monday, Derek Carrier and Vance McDonald will be the primary options at tight end, and the wide receivers will be the focal points of the passing game. Also, right tackle Anthony Davis (knee, ankle) remains on the mend, with Jonathan Martin next up if Davis remains.

For the Rams, keep an eye on the health of tailback Zac Stacy (calf).

The Linemakers lean: Both Kenny White and Micah Roberts think this spread should be much higher and both agree that the 49ers are a very good play this week. San Francisco is just hitting its stride and have played Harbaugh-ball in its last two, both covers with both games staying UNDER the total. Harbaugh is 14-6 ATS in the Niners' last 20 road games and has them ready to roll for another nice run once after a couple sluggish games against Arizona and Chicago. The Rams can’t stop the run, and that’s what the 49ers want to do. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde should have a field day here. Shop around at try to lay -3, rather than -3.5, and it might even cost a few cents extra, but it’s well worth it.