NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) at MINNESOTA (8 - 8 )
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) at DENVER (9 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS vs. MINNESOTA
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
LOS ANGELES vs. DENVER
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
LA CHARGERS @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
LA Chargers is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
NFL Week 1
Saints @ Vikings — Adrian Peterson visits his old team. Since 2014, New Orleans is 11-4-1 vs spread as a road underdog, 6-3-1 in non-division games. Under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Minnesota is 13-4 as home favorites under Zimmer; under is 14-10 in their last 24 home games. Saints won last four series games- three of those were in Superdome. Teams last met in ’14; Saints were last here in ’11. New Orleans lost five of last six season openers, are 0-4 in last four Week 1 road tilts; last time they won a Week 1 road game was ’06 in Cleveland. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers. Minnesota is 3-6 in last nine Week 1 games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 HO’s- this is only second time in last 10 years they open season at home.
Chargers @ Broncos — New era for Denver, with Siemian at QB now- they missed playoffs LY for first time in six years. Chargers have moved north an hour; unsure how unsettling the small move will be- it hurt the Rams LY. Denver is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last four played here, by 7-14-7-8 points. Since 2014, Broncos are 8-10-1 vs spread as a home favorite- they won their last five home openers, are 6-2 in last eight. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10; this is 7th year in row Denver opened season at home. Chargers are 21-11-1 in last 33 games as a road underdog; under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Bolts covered four of last five road openers, losing last three, by 1-5-6 points; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last 10 Week 1 road tilts.
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Saints at Vikings (-3½, 48)
WELCOME BACK AD
Adrian Peterson makes his Saints’ debut on Monday night, visiting his old team as New Orleans heads to Minnesota. The seven-time Pro Bowler and 2012 Most Valuable Player saw action in only three games last season before he and the Vikings parted ways after the season. Peterson’s injury obviously destroyed Minnesota’s running game, which ranked last in the NFL in 2016 as the entire team rushed for 1,205 yards. To put that number in perspective, Peterson rushed for 1,485 yards in 2015 and busted the 1,200 yard-mark seven times in his career.
SLOW STARTERS
The Saints have dropped their season opener in each of the last three years, while starting 0-3 in both 2015 and 2016. New Orleans has lost five of their past six road season openers, but the Saints managed a cover in the 2016 away opener in a three-point loss to the Giants. The defense has also been shredded in Week 1 action since 2014 by allowing 37, 31, and 35 points the last three season, including the 2016 last-minute loss to Oakland.
PURPLE PRIDE
Minnesota was on its way to a playoff berth last season following a fast 5-0 start. However, Mike Zimmer’s team stumbled to a 3-8 record the final 11 games, while posting a 3-4 ATS mark in the favorite role. In Zimmer’s three-year tenure, the Vikings have compiled a strong 12-5 ATS record at home, while beginning the season with a home contest for the first time since edging Jacksonville, 26-23 in 2012.
SERIES HISTORY
The Saints have captured the last four meetings with the Vikings dating back to the epic 2009 NFC championship at the Superdome. New Orleans knocked off Minnesota in overtime, 31-28, vaulting the Saints into the Super Bowl and a title over Indianapolis. The most recent matchup came in the Big Easy in September 2014 as the Saints pulled away from the Vikings, 20-9 as 10-point favorites. Drew Brees threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while Peterson was out for Minnesota serving his season-long suspension.
GOLDEN DOGS
The Saints have strung together three straight 7-9 seasons, but Sean Payton’s squad profited in the role of an underdog last season. New Orleans posted a terrific 8-1 ATS mark when receiving points, including a 6-1 ATS ledger away from the Superdome. However, the Saints won only two of those games straight-up, while scoring late touchdowns to grab backdoor covers in losses at Kansas City, Carolina, and Atlanta.
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
New Orleans has not performed well under the Monday night lights recently by losing four of its past five games in this situation. However, the only victory did come on the road at Chicago, 31-15 in December 2014. Minnesota hasn’t been much better on Mondays, losing seven of its last eight dating back to 2009. The Vikings defeated the Giants at home last season, 24-10 as 3 ½-point favorites, while hosting on a Monday night for only the third time since 2010.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provided his thoughts on the matchup, “Neither had a winning record despite positive scoring differentials last season and both Minnesota and New Orleans figure to end up right near the NFC Wild Card bubble by season’s end. The strengths last season were contrasting with Minnesota one of the top defensive teams in the NFC, allowing only 19.2 points per game compared to the Saints allowing 28.4 points per game. This will be the first time since 2005 that the Vikings will be favored in the matchup.”
Chargers at Broncos (-3, 43)
WELCOME TO L.A.
Although the Chargers open the season in Denver, they make their regular season debut as the Los Angeles Chargers. Following a 55-year run in San Diego, the Chargers bolted north to join to the Rams as the second team in Los Angeles. Times haven’t been great for the Lightning Bolts, who last won the AFC West in 2009, while coming off a 5-11 record and fourth-place finish in 2016. It’s a new era also on the sidelines as former Bills’ assistant Anthony Lynn replaced Mike McCoy as head coach, who made one playoff appearance in four seasons.
REBOUND FOR THE BRONCOS?
Denver captured a Super Bowl title in Peyton Manning’s final season in 2015, highlighted by a stifling defensive performance against Carolina. Manning retired soon after the championship, leaving a major void at the quarterback position. Denver filled the hole with Trevor Siemian and started 4-0, but things went downhill as the Broncos won only five of their final 12 games and missed the playoffs. On a positive note, the Broncos bounced back from a 1-5-1 ATS record as a home favorite in their championship season to a 4-2 ATS mark in 2016 when laying points at Sports Authority Field.
HOT STARTERS
The Broncos own a five-game winning streak in season openers, while eclipsing the OVER four times in this stretch. Denver rallied past Carolina in last season’s Week 1 thriller, 21-20 to cash as three-point home underdogs. On the flip side, the Chargers have dropped each of their past three road debuts, but have cashed twice in the underdog role.
DIVISION WOES
The Chargers have not fared well against their cohorts from the AFC West by losing 11 of their last 12 divisional matchups since 2015. The ATS record isn’t too bad, going 6-6 ATS, including a 5-1 ATS mark on the road in this span.
SERIES HISTORY
So, who was the Chargers’ lone win in the last two seasons inside the division? Yep, it came against the Broncos last October, 21-13 as three-point home underdogs. That victory was the first for the Chargers over the Broncos at home since 2010, snapping a five-game skid, while cashing the UNDER for the fourth straight time at home in the series. Denver captured the second meeting at Sports Authority Field two weeks later, 27-19 as 3 ½-point favorites, as the Broncos intercepted Chargers’ quarterback Philip Rivers three times. Since the 2013 playoffs, the Broncos have won six of the past seven matchups, including four straight in Denver.
MONDAY NIGHT MISERY
The Chargers didn’t make an appearance under the Monday night lights in 2016, but they have not impressed in primetime recently. Since 2013, the Bolts have lost four of five Monday matchups, including a pair of home losses to the Steelers and Bears in 2015. The last road Monday night victory for the Chargers came at Oakland in 2012 as one-point underdogs, 22-14, which coincidentally took place in Week 1.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
Nelson is back for his analysis on the late-night matchup, “Lynn began his coaching career in Denver under Mike Shanahan while Broncos’ coach Vance Joseph hired former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy to be his offensive coordinator, a role McCoy held from 2009-12 with the franchise as well. The Chargers have been a play-on team in Denver in recent years going 9-3 ATS since 2006, though they have lost SU in five of the last six meetings in Denver, they did win the home meeting last season in San Diego. Close games have been the norm in this series with a pair of eight-point games won by the hosts last October.”
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48 )
Adrian Peterson may have served as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, but the 2012 NFL MVP plans to show his now-former team that he has plenty left in the tank. Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night for its season opener against the Vikings.
"Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." That plan of attack likely will go through quarterback Drew Brees (NFL-best 5,208 passing yards in 2016), who looks to keep New Orleans' top-ranked total offense (426.0 yards per game) in gear with second-year wideout Michael Thomas aiming to take the next step in the wake of the offseason departure of Brandin Cooks (New England). Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense that ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9). "It makes it more interesting once he bounces it outside or catches the ball," Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes told the newspaper. "You have that extra adrenaline, whatever you want to call it, if you can stop him so you can talk trash later on that day."
POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-0.5) - Vikings (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -3
LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 3.5 point chalk in Adrian Peterson’s return to Minnesota and the spread has dropped to -3. The total hit the betting board at 48 and has yet to change.
INJURY REPORT:
Saints - DE T. Hendrickson (Questionable, Illness), LB N. Stupar (Questionable, Hamstring), QB C. Daniel (Questionable, Ankle), T T. Armstead (Doubtful, Shoulder), WR W. Snead IV (Eligible Week 4, Suspension), LB S. Anthony (Late September, Ankle), CB D. Breaux (Questionable Week 9, Leg), WR C. Fuller (I-R, Undisclosed), TE C. Harbor (I-R, Undisclosed), DT D Lawrence (I-R, Knee), T M. Wallace (I-R, Undisclosed), WR D. Arnold (I-R, Undisclosed), DT N. Fairley (I-R, Heart)
Vikings - DE B. Robison (Probable, Groin), S A. Harris (Probable, Leg), G D. Isidora (Questionable, Knee), DB T. Brock (Questionable, Groin), WR M. Floyd (Eligibility Week 5, Groin), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, Week 7 Knee), QB T. Bridgewater (Questionable Week 7, Knee), RB B. Sankey (I-R, Knee).
ABOUT THE SAINTS (2016: 7-9 WU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Long the centerpiece in Minnesota's backfield, Peterson likely will take a complementary role with third-round rookie Alvin Kamara joining incumbent starter Mark Ingram, who is coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), scrimmage yards (1,362) and total touchdowns (10). While the offense rarely is an issue, New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons - including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016. Cameron Jordan (team-leading 7.5 sacks) and linebacker Craig Robertson (club-best 114 tackles) made their marks last year and rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore is hoping to do the same with the NFL's worst pass defense. "People think we're still at the bottom of the barrel. ... I love proving people wrong anyway, so I'm ready for it," the 21-year-old said.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2016: 9-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season, due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the offseason, shortly after Peterson bolted to the Bayou. Stefon Diggs (team-leading 84 receptions) and Adam Thielen (career-high 967 receiving yards) serve as Bradford's wideouts while Kyle Rudolph's 83 catches in 2016 were the most by a tight end in franchise history.
TRENDS:
* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
* Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games in Week 1.
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road pup Saints at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals action.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3, 43)
The Denver Broncos aim to rebound from a subpar season by their standards, while the Los Angeles Chargers begin a new era when the two long-time AFC West rivals meet on Monday night in the Mile High City. Both teams also feature new coaches - Vance Joseph for Denver, Anthony Lynn for Los Angeles - while the Chargers play their initial game since unceremoniously ditching San Diego after 56 seasons.
The Broncos missed the playoffs last season after winning the Super Bowl following the 2015 campaign and once again will revolve around a defense led by star linebacker Von Miller. Denver rehired Mike McCoy to rev up the offense after he spent the last four seasons as the Chargers' coach, going a woeful 9-23 over the past two years before being fired. Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib took notice that Los Angeles wideout Keenan Allen is healthy after tearing an ACL in the 2016 season opener and cautioned that the Chargers are a dangerous foe. "They're healthy now, and they've got all of their guys and all of their guns are on deck," Talib told reporters. "They have Philip Rivers as their quarterback, so if you have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, you're probably going to be pretty good on offense."
LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 4.5-point home favorites back in April when Week 1 lines were first released. With plenty of time to bet the underdog Chargers, the spread made its way down to the current number of -3. The total hit the betting boards at 44 and was ticked down a notch to 43.
POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Broncos (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Broncos -7
INJURY REPORT:
Chargers - WR T. Williams (Probable, Groin), WR D. Inman (Questionable, Groin), TE S. McGrath (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Williams (Out, Back), DT T. Palepoi (Out, Suspension), C M. Tuerk (Out, Suspension), DE J. Attaochu (Out, Hamstring), LB D. Perryman (Out, Ankle), G F. Lamp (I-R, Knee), DE C. Landrum (I-R, Shoulder), LB C. Moore (I-R, Undisclosed), TE A. Cleveland (I-R, Knee).
Broncos - RB J. Charles (Probable, Knee), CB A. Talib (Probable, Achilles), C M. Paradis (Probable, Hip), DE D. Wolfe (Probable, Ankle), WR D. Thomas (Probable, Groin), DE A. Gotsis (Questionable, Shoulder), LB S. Barrett (Questionable, Hip), DE J. Crick (Out, Back), RB D. Booker (Out, Wrist), QB P. Lynch Out, Shoulder), DE Z. Kerr (Out, Knee), LB S. Ray (Out, Wrist), TE J. Butt (Out, Knee), QB C. Kelly (Out, Wrist), WR C. Henderson (I-R, Thumb), DE B. Winn (I-R, Knee).
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Rivers still wings the ball all over the field at age 35 and has topped 4,000 yards eight times to go along with five seasons of 30 or more touchdown passes. Melvin Gordon missed a 1,000-yard rushing season by three yards when he sat out the final three games with hip and knee injuries, while veteran Antonio Gates has 111 career touchdown receptions - tied with Tony Gonzalez for most by a tight end in NFL history. Pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks as a rookie) and Melvin Ingram (eight) will test a Denver offensive line that has four new starters while cornerback Casey Hayward (NFL-best seven interceptions) leads the secondary.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Trevor Siemian begins his second year as a starter after passing for 3,401 yards last season and has a solid pair of receivers at his disposal in Demaryius Thomas (five straight 1,000-yard seasons) and Emmanuel Sanders (three straight). Running back C.J. Anderson is healthy after playing just seven games in 2016 before undergoing season-ending knee surgery while former Kansas City star Jamaal Charles will try to revive his career after appearing in only eight contests over the last two seasons due to his own knee woes. Miller is second in the NFL in both sacks (73.5) and forced fumbles (19) since entering in 2011 while Talib is tied for fourth in league history with nine career interceptions returned for touchdowns.
TRENDS:
* Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in Week 1.
* Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Broncos at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is picking up 54 percent of the totals action.