NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 12th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
PITTSBURGH (11 - 7) at WASHINGTON (9 - 8 ) - 9/12/2016, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LA RAMS (7 - 9) at SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 11) - 9/12/2016, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 123-169 ATS (-62.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in September games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-10 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Pittsburgh at Washington
Pittsburgh: 19-25 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Washington: 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Los Angeles: 55-83 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 30-10 ATS when playing on Monday night
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Steelers (-3, 49½) at Redskins
Pittsburgh
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 10½ (Under -130)
Washington
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Season Win Total: 7½ (Over -120)
LINE MOVEMENT
There hasn’t been much change to this line when openers were released on April 15 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Pittsburgh opened up as 2½-point road favorites, but have moved slightly up to a field goal favorite. The total has taken a bit of a drop from its opener of 51 five months ago, falling to 50 at several books and even down to 49½ at others.
ROAD OPENER WOES
The Steelers haven’t fared well in their opening road game of the season, losing five consecutive times in this situation. Last season, Pittsburgh lost a 28-21 decision at New England, but managed a cover as 7½-point underdogs thanks to a touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown with two seconds left. In three of those losses in this span, the Steelers’ defense has allowed 28, 31, and 35 points in openers away from Heinz Field.
YOU LIKE THAT?
The Redskins were profitable in the underdog role in 2015, covering in nine of 14 opportunities when receiving points. Kirk Cousins stepped up late in the season for Washington by throwing 19 touchdown passes and two interceptions, while leading the ‘Skins to a 6-2 SU/ATS record in the final eight games and the NFC East title.
SILENT BELL
The Steelers will be without top running back Le’Veon Bell, who is suspended three games by the NFL for missing a drug test. Bell played in only six games last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury, averaged a career-high 4.9 yards a carry. DeAngelo Williams is expected to carry the load in the Pittsburgh backfield in Bell’s absence, as the veteran running back tallied 907 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2015.
O FOR GRUDEN
The Redskins have yet to win a season opener under head coach Jay Gruden, losing to the Texans in 2014 and the Dolphins in 2015. In both of those interconference matchups, Washington cashed the UNDER, while scoring a total of 16 points in those losses. However, Washington has performed well at home against AFC opponents in Gruden’s tenure by posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record.
MONDAY NIGHT MIKE
Playing under the Monday night lights hasn’t fazed Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, who have won four of their last five in this situation. Pittsburgh won in its lone Monday appearance last season, rallying past San Diego on a Bell touchdown in the final seconds of a 24-20 triumph as four-point underdogs. The Steelers are 2-3 ATS in this span, with a pair of wins in the favorite role by three points apiece at Tennessee (2014) and against Kansas City at home in overtime (2012).
RECENT MEETINGS (Steelers 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the last three matchups)
10/28/12 – Pittsburgh 27-12 vs. Washington (Pit -4½, 44)
11/3/08 – Pittsburgh 23-6 at Washington (Pit +1, 37½)
11/28/04 – Pittsburgh 17-6 vs. Washington (Wsh +10, 34½)
Rams (-2½, 42½) at 49ers
Los Angeles
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7½ (Under -200)
San Francisco
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 5½ (Under -130)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Rams have held steady as 2½ point favorites since the opening numbers were released in April. The total has seen the most movement, starting at 47 and falling all the way to 42½ at a majority of books.
LA LA LAND
The Rams are making their return to Los Angeles this season following a 21-year stint in St. Louis. Although the Rams won’t open the season in Southern California, they travel to the northern part of the state as part of their west coast return. Top pick Jared Goff heads back to the area where he played his college football at California, but he will not start the opener for Los Angeles, as Case Keenum will make the start for the Rams. Los Angeles has not tasted a winning season since 2003, while not qualifying for the postseason since 2004.
CHIP’S SHOT
The 49ers took a major step back following Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach, as San Francisco posted a disappointing 5-11 record in Jim Tomsula’s lone season as head coach. Following Tomsula’s abrupt firing, former Eagles’ head man Chip Kelly came on to bring San Francisco’s offense around, even though the quarterback situation is unsettled. Blaine Gabbert will start Monday’s opener ahead of Colin Kaepernick, as this Niners’ offense tries to improve after scoring 20 points or less 13 times in 2015.
UNDER THUNDER
San Francisco was nearly automatic when it came to low-scoring affairs at Levi’s Stadium. In 2015, the 49ers finished UNDER the total in seven of eight home contests, while posting more than 21 points only once in Santa Clara. Both meetings against the Rams last season went UNDER, including San Francisco’s 19-16 overtime victory to close out the campaign in Week 17 on 39 total.
RAM ROUGH
The highway wasn’t friendly to the Rams last season, compiling a 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS record. Coincidentally, their two road victories came at Arizona as seven-point underdogs, 24-22 and at Seattle as 11½-point ‘dogs, 23-17. Four of the Rams’ six away losses came to playoff squads, which included defeats at Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. In two opportunities as a road favorites, the Rams lost each time, as Los Angeles is listed as away chalk for the fourth time since 2011.
GOLDEN NUGGETS
The 49ers haven’t been strong inside NFC West play the last two seasons, putting together a 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS mark in this span. However, San Francisco has performed well in season openers recently by winning and covering five consecutive times in Week 1. The 49ers were in a similar spot last season as a home underdog on Monday night, shutting down the Vikings, 20-3 as three-point ‘dogs.
RECENT MEETINGS (49ers 4-2 SU and ATS the last six matchups)
1/3/16 – San Francisco 19-16 (OT) vs. St. Louis (SF +3, 39)
11/1/15 – St. Louis 27-6 vs. San Francisco (STL -7½, 41)
11/2/14 – St. Louis 13-10 at San Francisco (STL +10½, 44)
10/13/14 – San Francisco 31-17 at St. Louis (SF -3½, 44)
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Week One concludes with Los Angeles Rams visiting the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. Current odds at Sports Interaction has Rams 2.5 point road chalk.
The teams split a pair last season. In week-8 Rams defeated a shorthanded San Francisco squad 27-6 in St. Louis laying 7.5 points and in week-17 49ers' returned the favor in front of the home audience winning 19-16 in OT as 3-point pups.
Rams laying points on the road can be problematic. Rams were just 2-6 SU on the road last year scoring 15.5 points/game with a cash draining 2-5-1 record against the betting line. Additionally, Rams enter 8-15-1 ATS in enemy territory including 3-6 ATS visiting a division opponent. Rams have also lost four straight (1-3 ATS) under Monday night light's.
Despite all it's worts the 49ers managed a break even 4-4 mark in front of the home audience during 2015 cashing five of eight tickets. 49ers' have also covered five straight season openers. Matching that, 49ers' have responded in Monday Night Football winning six straight (5-1 ATS).
One final betting nugget to consider: Week-One Monday Night Home underdogs have been good bets posting a sparkling 4-1 ATS record since 2010, 7-3 ATS mark since 2002.
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 50)
Following their surprise run to the NFC East title in 2015, expectations are heightened for the Washington Redskins as they prepare to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. Washington is looking to build upon its closing run a year ago, when it finished the regular season with four consecutive victories.
"We have a great opportunity to go be effective and play well and that's exciting and something for our fans to be excited about," Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins said. "But, we've got to go out and prove it." Washington made a bold move to bolster its defense by signing Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman, setting up a marquee matchup with Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh will be without a pair of key weapons as running back Le'Veon Bell is serving a three-game suspension and wide receiver Martavis Bryant is out for the year for violations of the league's substance abuse policy. The offense should still be potent behind the leadership of two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but there are concerns over a defense that ranked 30th against the pass last season.
LINE HISTORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as three-point favorites back in April for this Monday night matchup with Washington. The point spread has stayed relatively steady throughout the summer with only a slight bump up to 3.5 back in mid-August. During the week leading up to the game, some money came back on Washington and the line was dropped down to 2.5.
The total opened at 51 in April but has come down slightly over the last few months and currently sits at 50. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (-3) - Washington (-1) + home field (-3) = Washington -1
KEY INJURIES
Pittsburgh - DE C. Heyward (Probable Monday, ankle), WR M. Wheaton (Out Monday, shoulder), RB L. Bell (Out Monday, suspension), CB S. Golson (Out Monday, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out Monday, suspension) QB B. Gradkowski (Out Monday, hamstring).
Washington - WR J. Doctson (Probable Monday, achilles), RB M. Jones (Probable Monday, shoulder), RB C. Thompson (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB R. Kerrigan (Questionable Monday, groin), LB J. Galette (Out For Season, achilles).
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Monday evening in D.C. is calling for clear skies and perfect September football conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper-70's with humidity at around 50 percent.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Once renowned for its Steel Curtain defense, Pittsburgh has evolved into an offensive juggernaut, with Roethlisberger leading the league with an average of 328.2 yards per game last season and Brown hauling in a mind-boggling 375 receptions and 31 touchdown catches in the past three years. "It starts and it ends with him," Norman said of Brown. "That's going to be a tall task to take on." DeAngelo Williams was more than a capable replacement last season while subbing for a suspended and injured Bell, rushing for 11 TDs and 907 yards. Defensive ends Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward and linebacker Ryan Shazier are top talents but the secondary remains suspect after yielding an average of 271.9 yards in 2015.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2015: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): One knock against Washington last season, aside from being the only team to finish above .500 in its division, was not beating one opponent with a winning record. Nonetheless, Cousins thrived in his first full season as the starter, becoming the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for at least 4,000 yards (4,166) and 25 touchdowns (29), and has one of the league's top tight ends in Jordan Reed, who enjoyed a breakout season with 87 receptions and 11 scores. There are questions about a ground game headed by Matt Jones, who returned to practice Wednesday after missing much of the preseason with a shoulder injury, and a defense that ranked 28th last year despite 9.5 sacks from linebacker Ryan Kerrigan.
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road favorite Steelers at a rate of 66 percent and the Under is picking up slightly more totals wagers with 52 percent.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 42.5)
Chip Kelly gets a second chance to find out if his revved-up offense can translate to the NFL when he guides the San Francisco 49ers into their season opener against the visiting Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Kelly made a splashy entrance into the league with a pair of 10-win campaigns in Philadelphia but was released with one game left last season amid growing player discontent.
“I’m sure Chip’s heard the rumors,” 49ers veteran linebacker NaVorro Bowman told reporters, “and I’m sure he’s made a few changes so he doesn’t have the same comments at the end of this year.” Ironically, one of Kelly's first big decisions was choosing a starting quarterback, but backup Colin Kaepernick has garnered much of the headlines following his decision not to stand for the national anthem, setting off a wave of discourse nationally. The Rams hardly have had a quiet offseason of their own, relocating to Los Angeles after a 21-year run in St. Louis. The franchise then swung for the fences by sending a boatload of draft picks to Tennessee for the No. 1 pick overall -- used to select Jared Goff, who begins the season as the third-string quarterback.
LINE HISTORY: The Los Angeles Rams opened Week 1 betting back in April as 2.5-point road favorites for their matchup against the 49ers. That 2.5 points has survived free agency, the draft, the preseason, and some surprising quarterback announcements and is currently holding steady.
The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and was gradually bet down all summer to it's current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Los Angeles (+3) - San Francisco (+5.5) + home field (-3) = San Francisco -0.5
KEY INJURIES
Rams - CB E. Gaines (Questionable Monday, quadricep), LB M. Barron (Questionable Monday, undisclosed), CB T. Johnson (Questionable Monday, concussion), WR P. Cooper (Out Monday, shoulder).
49ers - DL G. Dorsey (Probable Monday, knee), RB C. Hyde (Probable Monday, concussion), DL A. Armstead (Questionable Monday, shoulder), RB S. Draughn (Questionable Monday, back), LB N. Bellore (Out Monday, knee), WR E. Rogers (Out For Season, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: Much like the early game Monday night, perfect football conditions are being forecast in the Bay Area with clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at kickoff. Wind will not be a factor and humidity levels will be at around 75 percent.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We had the Rams as a -2.5 point favorite over the 49ers early last week with over 60% of the action on them to cover. We have since moved to Rams -3 with almost 80% of the action to cover the spread. The total has also moved down from 43.5 to 42.5 which has started to even out the action on that market with the Under getting just under 60% of the action." - Michael Stewart of CarbonGaming.ag.
ABOUT THE RAMS (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U): Los Angeles has an emerging superstar in second-year running back Todd Gurley, who introduced himself to the NFL by rushing for at least 125 yards in each of his first four starts. A non-existent passing game allowed defenses to focus on Gurley as his rookie season progressed, leading to coach Jeff Fisher's decision to promote Case Keenum, who won three of his last four starts. There's still a dearth of talent at wide receiver for Los Angeles, which likes to line up former first-round pick Tavon Austin in the backfield with Gurley rather than stretch defenses with the deep ball. Tackle Aaron Donald is an unstoppable force on defense for the Rams, who must replace defensive end Chris Long and linebacker James Laurinaitis.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (2015: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Blaine Gabbert started to resurrect his career after he was elevated to starter midway through last season and won the quarterback job in the preseason while Kaepernick was slow to recover from multiple surgeries. "He's a good fit for what we want to get accomplished, and I have a lot of confidence in what he can do for us offensively," Kelly said of Gabbert, who threw for 354 yards in a 19-16 win over the Rams to finish 3-5 last season. Like the Rams, San Francisco will have to cobble together a group of wide receivers, with Torrey Smith the de facto No. 1 after grabbing only 33 receptions in his first season with the 49ers. San Francisco held opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven of eight home games.
TRENDS:
* Rams are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 1.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
* Under is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 vs. NFC West.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road favorite Rams at a rate of 65 percent and the Under is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 68 percent.