NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
DALLAS (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/25/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
DALLAS @ ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 14 games on the road
Dallas is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
NFL Week 3
Cowboys (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1) — Arizona is a home underdog for first time in three years; they’re 4-2 as home dog under Arians. Redbirds scored three TD’s, turned ball over five times on 24 drives this year. Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 home games. Dallas got squashed LW in Denver, giving up 178 yards on ground, 202 in air. Under is 13-4 in their last 17 road games. Cowboys are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as a road favorite. Arizona won last four series games, with three wins by one point or in OT; Dallas lost its last three visits here- their last win in the desert was in 2006. Redbirds won/covered three of last four home openers. Last 3+ years, NFC East non-divisional road favorites are 13-5 vs spread outside their division.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Week 3 MNF Betting Preview
Vegasinsider.com
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
Odds: Dallas (-3); Total 47
Coming into the 2017 campaign there were a lot of handicappers extremely high on both of these teams and figured this Week 3 matchup could be a playoff preview. We are still a long ways away from talking about playoffs, but Dallas and Arizona have failed to live up to those expectations so far.
Yes, both teams are 1-1 straight up entering Week 3, but getting blown out in Denver last week was not a good look for the Cowboys, and Arizona narrowly escaped an Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts team a week ago.
Both sides would love to bounce back with a strong game from start to finish here, and for the Cowboys, they are looking to beat the Cardinals for the first time in five tries.
Arizona doesn't need a “bounce back” in the general sense as they did win a week ago, but putting up 16 points on a Colts team that was torched by the Rams in Week 1 was not a good look. To be fair, it was the first time Arizona's offense had to truly adapt to a missing piece as life without RB David Johnson officially began, and for the most part the Cardinals relied on their aerial attack downfield to get the job done.
QB Carson Palmer threw for 332 yards on just 19 completions (19-for-36), and the running game was used more as something to keep the defense honest. That style of play might bode well for them here as they just saw Denver's Trevor Siemian throw for 4 TD's against the Cowboys a week ago, and if that rushing attack from the Cardinals can break a big run or two to keep the Cowboys off-balance, Arizona has a chance to showcase that explosive offense everyone expected from them this season.
Dallas catches a bit of a break offensively too as they aren't going to see the same style of suffocating defense this week as they did from Denver a week ago. The Cowboys love to use the running game to set up the pass, and when Denver completely took away RB Ezekiel Elliott last week, the Cowboys were like a ship without a sail. Arizona's rush defense numbers look a whole lot better then they actually are because they've yet to face a running team (Detroit, Indianapolis) and this MNF game could be a rude awakening for that rush defense.
Dallas should find significant success with Elliott this week, and as we saw last year, when he gets rolling and moving the chains, the entire Cowboys offense is tough to stop.
So rather than try to pick a side here in a game I truly believe could end up going either way, I'm looking at this total and believe it's probably a point or two too low. The current number of 47 is juiced (-115) to the 'under' thanks to 70%+ action on the low side according to VegasInsider.com, and a lot of that has to do with what we've seen from these two teams through two weeks.
Dallas has yet to score 20 points in a game, and everyone remembers Arizona needing a 4th quarter comeback to knock off the Colts in OT a week ago. However, this is one of those primetime spots where I believe both offenses show up and try to establish their dominance, not only for this game, but for the rest of the year for both organizations.
Dallas is built to win with their phenomenal offensive line either blocking for Elliott and the running game, or protecting QB Dak Prescott as he stretches the field through the air.
The Cowboys are on a 7-2 O/U run when coming off a game that saw them give up 40+ points, and the last seven times they've been the road team on MNF they've gone 5-1-1 O/U.
The Cowboys will hit 20+ points for the first time this year rather easily in my opinion here, and they'll force an Arizona offense that they know is without their best weapon to try and keep up.
Arizona is glad to have that first game without David Johnson out of the way, and thankfully it came against a Colts team that is missing their best player as well. But with this being the Cardinals home opener, I expect that comfortable surroundings to help calm this offense down from the start and get the correct calls in without having to worry about noise for the first time in 2017.
The passing attack that they showed a week ago should excel even more here against a weak Dallas secondary, and with Arizona posting a 7-0 O/U run in their last seven conference games, don't be surprised to see the 70%+ of bettors who've already bet the 'under' rip up their tickets by the time the 4th quarter starts.
Best Bet: Over 47
MNF - Cowboys at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Cowboys (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) did not look like the team that finished with the best record in the NFC in 2016 as Dallas was routed at Denver, 42-17 as 2 ½-point favorites. Following a Dak Prescott touchdown pass to Dez Bryant to even the score at 7-7, the Broncos outscored the Cowboys, 28-3 to put the game out of reach. Prescott finished with 238 yards passing, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, but running back Ezekiel Elliott was limited to a career-low eight yards on nine carries. To put that number in perspective, Elliott’s previous career-low was 51 yards, which came in his NFL debut against the Giants last season.
The Cardinals (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) were on the verge of an 0-2 start after falling behind at Indianapolis, 10-0. However, Arizona rallied back to even the game at 13-13 on 40-yard field goal from Phil Dawson late in the fourth quarter. Dawson would connect on the game-winning kick in overtime to give the Cardinals a 16-13 road triumph, although Arizona failed to cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Carson Palmer overcame a three-interception performance in the season-opening loss at Detroit to rack up 332 yards through the air against the Colts to avoid Arizona’s first 0-2 start since 2005.
HIGHWAY HICCUPS
Dallas began the Prescott era last season by winning its first six games away from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys lost their final two road games last season (which included a Week 17 defeat at Philadelphia with their starters not playing), while dropping their third straight away contest at Denver last week. Rewinding to the start of 2016, the Cowboys own a 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS mark in the role of a road favorite, even though two of those victories last season came at San Francisco and Cleveland.
DESERT DOGS
Arizona is receiving points at University of Phoenix Stadium for the first time since Week 16 in 2014 in a 35-6 setback to Seattle as nine-point ‘dogs. That season, the Cardinals compiled a solid 4-1 SU/ATS record in the home ‘dog role, although two of those victories came as a short one-point underdog. Since 2015, the Cardinals have been listed as a home favorite 17 times, but have covered the number only six times. Last season, Arizona put together a 3-5 ATS record, but the Cardinals have won each of their past seven home openers since 2010.
SERIES HISTORY
The Cardinals have owned the Cowboys over the years by winning each of the last four meetings since 2008. Two of those victories came in overtime (2008 and 2011) in Glendale, while Arizona beat Dallas at AT&T Stadium in the most recent matchup in 2014 by a 28-17 count. The Cardinals erased an early 10-0 deficit as Palmer tossed three touchdown passes, as Arizona outscored Dallas in the final three quarters, 28-7. The last time Dallas beat Arizona came in 2006 as 6 ½-point road favorites, 27-10 as Matt Leinart was the Cardinals’ quarterback that day.
TOTAL NOTES
The Cowboys closed out 2016 by cashing the UNDER in six of their final seven road games prior to eclipsing the OVER in their away opener at Denver. The Cardinals hit plenty of UNDERS at University of Phoenix Stadium last season, going 6-2, while 10 of the past 12 home contests since November 2015 have finished UNDER the total.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
During Jason Garrett’s tenure, the Cowboys own a 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in Monday night action, including a 42-21 blowout of the Lions in Week 16 last season. The Cardinals have won all three Monday games since Bruce Arians took over as head coach in 2014, but all came in the favorite role at home.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson feels if though it’s early in the season, a loss can be devastating moving forward, “The Cowboys and Cardinals entered the season considered two of the top NFC contenders, but one team will leave Week 3 at just 1-2. Both teams have favorable Week 4 matchups at home, but in what figures to be a tightly contested NFC playoff picture, a .500 first quarter will leave a lot of work to do and both teams have difficult Week 5 games ahead.”
From the defensive side, the Cardinals will have their work cut out for them, “Arizona’s defense was statistically one of the better units in the league last season, but so far this season, the Cardinals have allowed 24 points per game, featuring decent numbers against the run but struggling to contain the pass, mostly thanks to Matthew Stafford’s big second half in Week 1. Arizona has committed five turnovers this season while only producing two defensively, though last week’s overtime interception was effectively a game-winner.”
On the Cowboys’ end, Prescott could be feeling the heat of his second season according to Nelson, “Prescott threw two interceptions last week after having only four in his entire rookie season as so far the concerns about a sophomore regression are proving valid with a huge decline in his production through two weeks. The Cowboys expected to be without Elliott for the first several weeks of the season but his presence hasn’t provided great returns so far with modest rushing totals on just 3.4 yards per carry and no touchdowns as the offense may have a difficult time matching last season’s success.”
From a trend standpoint, Vince Akins notes a fade spot for Dallas, “The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-7.05 ppg) since 2010 as a favorite after playing as a road favorite last game.” To be fair, Dallas won six of those games straight-up, but went 0-2 ATS in this situation last season, including a 10-7 loss to the Giants.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says to keep an eye on the Cardinals in their home opener, “The public is fully supporting Dallas, per usual, but we've taken some smart money on the home dog, which is why we've adjusted down a half point. It's tough to say where the big money will come when limits are elevated though. Unless the sharps really get involved with Arizona, we will need the Cards in a big way because the squares think this line is a gift from God.”
Cards host Cowboys for Monday Night Football
By: StatFox.com
Both the Cowboys and the Cardinals will be hoping to improve to 2-1 when the teams clash in Arizona on Monday Night Football.
The Cowboys faced the Broncos in Denver last week and that game did not end the way they thought it would. Dallas entered that contest as a 2.5-point favorite, but Denver ended up winning easily. The Broncos won that one 42-17, racking up 380 yards of total offense. Dallas will need to do a better job defensively this week or the team will most likely be 1-2 on Tuesday. The Cardinals, meanwhile, must also be a lot better moving forward. Arizona is coming off of a 16-13 win in Indianapolis, but the Colts just might be the worst team in football right now. If the Cardinals are going to return to the postseason this year then they’ll need to be a lot better than they were in that one. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that Dallas is a ridiculous 11-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game since 1992. The Cowboys are also facing a Cardinals team that is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the past three seasons. RB David Jonson being out indefinitely will not make things easier for Arizona.
The Cowboys were embarrassed by the Broncos last week and RB Ezekiel Elliott (112 yards) was miserable in that game. Elliott rushed for only eight yards on nine carries in that loss and he can’t afford to be that bad again here. Elliott is dealing with a lot right now, but he needs to be focused when he is on the field. If the Cowboys fall to 1-2 then they will have a tough road to the playoffs, so they need their stars to be playing at the highest level. That includes QB Dak Prescott (506 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) and WR Dez Bryant (9 rec, 102 yards, 1 TD). Prescott threw two interceptions against the Broncos last week, and he would really be hurting his team if he were to turn the ball over more than once on Monday. Bryant, meanwhile, has not been contributing as much as he is capable of the past few years. He has obviously dealt with a few injuries over the years, but he is too good of a talent to not be racking up 75 or so receiving yards per game. On defense, Dallas will just need to make sure it can get to the quarterback in this one. With RB David Johnson out for the next few months, the Cardinals will be relying strictly on Carson Palmer and the passing game. Dallas can force Palmer into making some costly mistakes by getting after him.
With David Johnson out, the Cardinals are counting on QB Carson Palmer (600 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) to produce for them. Palmer did not do that against Indianapolis last week, throwing for just one touchdown and also throwing a pick. While Palmer did throw for 332 yards in that game, the Cardinals need him to find the end zone. And it’s not a great sign that he struggled against the Colts, as they might have the worst secondary in football. Dallas, meanwhile, is pretty solid in that regard, so Palmer must be more careful with the ball. One guy that can help him out on offense is WR Larry Fitzgerald (9 rec, 95 yards). Fitzgerald did not do much against Indianapolis last week, but this is a better matchup for him here. The Cardinals will need a guy to get some yards over the middle of the field, and Fitzgerald can be that guy. It also helps that the veteran loves to play on national television. One last guy to keep an eye on is WR J.J. Nelson (10 rec, 163 yards, 2 TD). Nelson is lightning quick and Palmer loves to find him deep. It would not be shocking if he shakes free at least once here. Defensively, stopping the run will need to be Arizona’s priority. The Broncos made things very tough on the Cowboys by doing just that last week, so Arizona needs to follow that blueprint.
MNF Betting Preview: Cowboys at Cardinals
Covers.com
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 46.5)
The optics that resonated from Ezekiel Elliott's lack of effort in chasing down defenders on a pair of interceptions painted a significantly worse picture than that of his career-worst eight-yard rushing performance. The 2016 NFL rushing leader aims to brush off that unattractive look on Monday as the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Arizona Cardinals.
"I would say I was just very frustrated, but that's no excuse for the lack of effort I showed on tape," said Elliott, who was shown with hands on hips and walking in the other direction on one interception while remaining on the ground on another in Dallas' 42-17 loss to Denver last week. Elliott's lack of rushing (from scrimmage) played a significant role in Dak Prescott attempting a career-high 50 passes last week. While the Cowboys struggled on the road last week, the Cardinals are embracing the idea of playing their first home game since a preseason tilt on Aug. 19. "It seemed longer than that, too, but it's just good that we finally get a chance to play in front of our home crowd, on our grass. ... It's been a long four weeks, no doubt," Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer said.
POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-4) - Cardinals (0.5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -1.5
LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point road chalk dropping to an even 3 on Monday and hasn’t moved since. The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and has been bet down a full point to 46.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Cowboys - CB Orlando Scandrick (Probable, Hand), QB Dak Prescott (Probable, Ankle), WR Terrance Williams (Questionable, Ankle), DT Stephen Paea (Questionable, Knee), CB Chidobe Awuzie (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Nolan Carroll (Out, Concussion).
Cardinals - LB Deone Bucannon (Probable, Ankle), TE Jermaine Gresham (Probable, Ribs), WR Jaron Brown (Probable, Knee), LB Karlos Dansby (Probable, Hip), WR J.J. Nelson (Questionable, Hamstring), T D.J. Humphries (Questionable, Knee), G Mike Iupati (Questionable, Tricep), WR John Brown (Out, Quadricep).
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Tight end Jason Witten has been the primary beneficiary of Prescott's penchant to air it out this season, with the Dallas quarterback's 89 pass attempts trailing only Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (92). The 35-year-old Witten leads the NFL with 17 receptions through two games and his two receiving scores are tied for second best in the league. Dez Bryant found the end zone last week and scored in each of his last two encounters with Arizona, although the wideout is expected to be shadowed throughout Monday's game by All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson. Orlando Scandrick is on pace to return after a one-game absence because of a broken left hand, perhaps just in time as fellow cornerback Nolan Carroll remains in the NFL's concussion protocol.
ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Perhaps the comforts of home will alter the fortunes of Palmer, who has thrown just two touchdowns against four interceptions this season and is coming off being sacked four times in Arizona's 16-13 overtime win over Indianapolis. J.J. Nelson stepped up versus the Colts, reeling in five catches for 120 yards with a touchdown en route to being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. The need for production from the Cardinals' passing game is underscored by the loss of the versatile David Johnson in the season opener. Veteran Chris Johnson, who showed a burst with 11 carries for 44 yards last week, is expected to receive a bigger workload at the expense of fellow running back Kerwynn Williams.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 Monday games.
* Under is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Cowboys Lions at a rate of 60 percent and the Under is picking up 53 percent of the totals action.