NFL Betting News and Notes Monday, September 29

NFL Week 4

Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2) — NE has six TDs in three games; one on blocked FG return, another on a 1-yard drive; they’ve yet to gain more than 315 yards in any game, all while racking up 322 penalty yards to start season. Luckily for them they’re +7 in turnovers, with no giveaways in last two games. Chiefs got first win last week in Miami; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. KC ran ball for 133-174 yards in last two games, converting 15-32 on 3rd down after going 1-12 in opening loss to Titans. Pats covered once in last seven games as road favorite. KC won five of last six series games; Patriots lost six of last seven visits here, but last visit was in ’05. Belichick was 4-0 vs Reid when Reid was in Philly, including close Super Bowl win.

Armadillosports.com

Monday Night Football: Patriots at Chiefs
By Covers.com

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 46.5)

Tom Brady is taking plenty of punishment through the first three games of the 2014 season, but the New England Patriots have managed to put together back-to-back wins. The Patriots hope to have some of their problems along the offensive line sorted out when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday. The Chiefs picked up their first win last week and are hoping to have running back Jamaal Charles at full strength by Monday.

New England lost longtime offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia to retirement in the offseason and traded away Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins late in training camp, and those voids are proving difficult to fill. That struggling line needs to figure out a way to stop Kansas City linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who have combined for five sacks in the first three weeks. The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL with nine sacks and got to Ryan Tannehill four times in last week's 34-15 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs +4 home dogs, but that is now +3. The total opened 44.5 and is up to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - S Don Jones (Questionable, hamstring), CB Alfonzo Dennard (Questionable, shoulder), WR Aaron Dobson (Questionable, foot). Chiefs - RB Jamaal Charles (Questionable, ankle), S Eric Berry (Doubtful, heel).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-3) + Chiefs (+0.25) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.25

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow toward the NW endzone at 5 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "New England survived a scare from Oakland to move into a first place tie with Buffalo. Patriots have covered five of their last six on Monday night. Kansas City off its first win of the season but consecutive games against Patriots and 49ers will be a challenge. Chiefs 0-6 ATS L6 home games." Covers Expert Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): New England’s defense carried it to back-to-back wins the last two weeks, holding Minnesota and Oakland to a total of 16 points. Brady, who has yet to pass for 250 or more yards through the first three games while being sacked seven times, did not point the finger directly at the line but suggested the offense as a whole is struggling. “There are a lot of things we have to ramp up,” Brady told reporters. “It’s not just one thing on our offense, and we’re trying to identify the things we need to do better. … It’s not really one area, it’s all areas.”

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, O/U 1-2): Charles (high ankle sprain) was inactive last week after totaling nine carries in the first two games but practiced on a limited basis Thursday. Kansas City reached deep into its reservoir of skill players at Miami and came up with some capable replacements in running back Knile Davis, who ran for 132 yards and a score, and Joe McKnight, who caught a pair of TD passes from Alex Smith. “You’re bringing new guys to work in there and they’re just learning the system but they are playing their hearts out trying to make sure they get everything down,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “Again, I’m proud of the guys for the way they are filling in and doing their job.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in Week 4.
* Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last five Monday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 51 percent of bettors are behind the Patriots.

Chiefs battle Patriots
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: New England -3, Total: 45

The Chiefs look to get back to .500 when they host the Patriots on Monday night.

New England hosted the Raiders last Sunday and won 16-9 in a defensive slugfest. The club could play a similar game Monday night against a grind-it-out team in Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off of a 34-15 road victory over the Dolphins, and will now look to ground-and-pound against the Patriots. New England's offensive line has not looked good thus far in allowing seven sacks, and Kansas City has some fierce pass rushers that can put serious pressure on the quarterback.

These teams have not met since Nov. 21, 2011, when the Patriots beat the Chiefs 34-3 as 17-point favorites at home, but New England is 1-4 SU (but 4-1 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium since 1992. As the coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 16-5 ATS in road games against defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Andy Reid, however, is 114-83 ATS against conference opponents since beginning his outstanding career as a head coach. RB Jamaal Charles (ankle) and S Eric Berry (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, while New England could be without CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder).

The Patriots are coming off of a 16-9 victory over the Raiders and their offensive line play really could have cost them the game. Tom Brady (632 pass yards, 5.5 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT) was sacked twice in the game and had no time to throw the ball at all as he was pressured all game. He still finished the game 24-of-37 for 234 yards and a touchdown. Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quicker against the Chiefs or he’ll end up eating dirt often on Monday. When Brady is throwing the ball this season, it’s mostly been in the direction of WR Julian Edelman (22 rec, 260 yards, 1 TD). Edelman had 10 catches for 84 yards in the win over Oakland and is a very good route runner that should be able to find holes against an underperforming Chiefs’ defense. TE Rob Gronkowski (11 rec, 116 yards, 2 TD) is also beginning to look more and more healthy by the week. He had three receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown against Oakland and played nearly half the snaps.

What has been winning games for the Patriots has been their defense. New England leads the NFL in passing defense (169 YPG, 5.0 YPA) and red-zone efficiency (33%), while ranking third in total defense (273 YPG) and is tied for fourth in scoring defense (16.3 PPG). The Pats have also done a great job stopping the run during their two-game win streak, holding opponents to a mere 60.5 rush YPG on 3.0 YPC. CB Darrelle Revis (1 INT) has been everything he was hyped up to be in New England, and he should make life on Chiefs QB Alex Smith very tough Monday night.

Kansas City has gotten off to a poor start after being last season’s breakout team, but the club did collect its first win of the season in Week 3, defeating the Dolphins 34-15 on the road. QB Alex Smith (643 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) was excellent in that game, going 19-of-25 for 186 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The one negative was that he took five sacks, increasing his total to 11 for the season. Smith is not going to take many chances against a relentless Patriots’ pass defense. He will manage the offense and rely on his running game to do the heavy lifting. Starting at running back for the Chiefs could be RB Knile Davis (214 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) if top RB Jamaal Charles (23 rush yards, 2.6 YPC, 0 TD) can’t go because of an ankle injury. Charles is the best running back in football when healthy, but the K.C. offense has not missed a step with Davis filling in. He rushed 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in the win over Miami and could do very well again on Monday against a Patriots defense that allowed 191 rushing yards to those same Dolphins in Week 1.

Kansas City’s defense is allowing a solid 223.7 passing yards per game (T-10th in NFL), but has surrendered 130.3 rushing yards per game (23rd in league) on a hefty 5.1 yards per carry (28th in NFL). Their performance against the Dolphins was their best of the year as a unit and they will need to carry that momentum into this matchup against the Pats. K.C. has not forced a single turnover yet this year, and New England hasn't had a giveaway since Week 1.

Check out more NFL Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Patriots vs. Chiefs Betting Preview and Pick
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

If you like the Patriots to win and cover on Monday night in Kansas City, you are banking on New England to play like it has generally played since, oh, 2001.

But on current form, the Patriots don’t look like the Patriots. They are gaining fewer yards per play than the Jaguars. They don’t have a single second-half touchdown. They have exceeded 300 yards once in three games entering the Monday-night matchup against the Chiefs (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Still, we’re talking a 2-1 New England team that might just be shaking off some rust while winning games. How resourceful! And look, these are the Patriots, man. They should be just fine.

Well, that’s the feeling, at least, for if that weren’t the case, why would these Patriots be 3.5-point favorites on the road?

In the end, if you believe in the Patriot Way and whatnot, a point spread of a little more than a field goal isn’t a big deal. The Chiefs (1-2) don’t have the Patriots’ brand name, and they are 3-8 in their 11 games of consequence. We’ve all seen some New England teams who would handle these Chiefs without much trouble at all.

And if you think the Patriots will show up on Monday night, then it’s an easy game to handicap. But if you don’t, then the point spread becomes a hurdle and not just a little number to pass on the way to a been-there, done-that victory.

The Line: Patriots -3.5 Total: 46

Line movement: After opening a half-point higher at numerous Nevada books, the line appears to have snapped into place. The key move came on Tuesday, when numerous books went from -4 to -3.5.

For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Andy Reid-led teams are 15-9 (62.5 percent) against the spread and 14-10 straight-up (58.3 percent) on Monday nights.

Bill Belichick teams are 15-10 ATS (60.0 percent) and 16-9 SU (64 percent) on Mondays.

Belichick’s clubs are 4-0 all-time against Reid’s teams, but each side has covered twice.

Belichick’s teams are 12-6 ATS in Week 4 (66.7 percent). Reid’s clubs are 7-6-1 ATS in the fourth week (53.8 percent).

Note: Historical point spread trends are cited from the Spreadapedia database. Charles returns to practice: Chiefs star tailback Jamaal Charles appears on track to return to the lineup after missing Week 3 with a high-ankle sprain. Charles is the Chiefs’ top offensive playmaker, a three-down back with rare speed. If he’s anywhere near top form, he could give the Patriots some real problems, as could second-year back Knile Davis. Like Charles, Davis has an extra gear.

Pats’ passing game lacking punch: The Patriots’ passing game isn’t without its strong suits. Quarterback Tom Brady hasn’t been picked in 114 attempts, and tight end Rob Gronkowski, wide receiver Julian Edelman and tailback Shane Vereen can all be tough matchups for the opposition. Still, the Patriots aren’t as productive and as intimidating through the air as they were in past seasons. New England is gaining just 5.2 yards per passing play, second-worst in the league. With extra time to prepare for Monday night, let’s see if the Pats can find their way out of their malaise. Chiefs’ passing attack may have upside: Like New England, Kansas City hardly has a robust passing game. The Chiefs have struggled to protect quarterback Alex Smith (11 sacks in three games), and they are 27th in yards gained per pass. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have shown a little playmaking ability through the air this season. They have 10 pass plays of 20 yards or more, tied for 13th-best in the league through three games. (The Pats, by contrast, have just five.)

Like New England, Kansas City can stress defenses with its pass catching out of the backfield (Charles) and at tight end (Travis Kelce). Receivers Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery can have their moments, too.

The Patriots have been outstanding against the pass; no team is allowing fewer yards through the air, and opposing quarterbacks have combined for the league’s second-worst rating against New England (57.4). The suspicion here is the Chiefs will tread carefully with Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis. However, Kansas City’s versatility of passing game talent will allow the club to attack in different ways.

Injuries that matter: Chiefs Pro Bowl strong safety Eric Berry (ankle) returned to practice this week after missing the Miami game but is reportedly still out for Monday night.

The Chiefs received some bad news late in the week when reserve tailback Joe McKnight suffered a torn Achilles tendon. McKnight caught a pair of touchdowns in the Chiefs' Week 3 win against the Dolphins.

The Patriots are in reasonably good shape from an injury perspective. Gronkowski remains on the injury report with a knee ailment, but he’s played in all three regular season games.

Visit here for all Week 4 NFL injuries.

Weather: Conditions will be favorable Monday night, with temperatures in the mid-70s, winds of about 5 mph and clear skies in the forecast. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers' lean: The Pats may be 2-1, but the combined record of their opponents is 2-7. They were woeful offensively against a Raiders team that the Jets and Texans ran roughshod over. Now, they travel to a Kansas City team that has impressed over the last two weeks and boasts one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league. We'll take the home dog on Monday.

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

One sports handicapping parameter used when making football picks is to analyze the 'Bye Week'. Is it an advantage to have a 'Bye Week', or do teams get rusty, out of sync and lay an egg in that first week back??? - Looking back ten seasons shows teams with rest posted a 172-142-6 (53.7%) record against-the-betting line split between 84-73-3 (52.5%) at home, 88-69-3 (55.0%) wearing road jersey's. Return overall isn't much but on the plus side none-the-less. However, within those numbers a good spot is backing rested road favorite as they're 44-18-1 (69.8%) against the betting line. Rested road favorites taking on a team off a win the previous game are a sparkling 15-5 (75.0%) ATS over the 10 year span, rested road favorites taking on a team off a loss the previous effort are 29-13-1 (67.4%) ATS. Teams playing with rest WK5 - Cardinals, Broncos, Bengals, Rams, Seahawks and Browns.

MNF - Patriots at Chiefs
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 of the NFL season closes out tonight at Arrowhead Stadium as the Chiefs look to become the third home underdog to win outright after the Vikings and Cowboys both put up dominating efforts in this role. Kansas City welcomes New England, as the Patriots are playing their third road game in four weeks.

The Patriots failed to cover as 14-point home favorites over the Raiders in last Sunday’s 16-9 victory. Oakland had a shot to tie the game in the final minute, but the would-be touchdown was nullified due to a questionable holding penalty and the Pats held on. The lone touchdown in the game came in the second quarter as Tom Brady hit Rob Gronkowski from six yards out, while both the Patriots and Raiders kicked three field goals each. New England’s defense did the job, limiting Oakland to just 244 yards of offense.

The Chiefs finally finished in the win column after an 0-2 start, dispatching the Dolphins, 34-15 as 5½-point road underdogs. Running back Jamaal Charles missed the game to rest a sprained ankle, but former Arkansas standout Knile Davis took over and rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown to lift Kansas City to a 14-3 halftime lead. Miami cut the deficit to 21-15 in the third quarter, as Kansas City shut the door with a pair of touchdowns in the final four minutes of regulation, including a meaningless touchdown to hit the ‘over’ of 43.

Andy Reid’s team is listed as an underdog for the third straight week after losing their home opener to the Titans as a short favorite. Kansas City owns a 2-0 ATS record when receiving points this season, including a Week 2 cover at Denver as 13-point ‘dogs in a 24-17 setback. The Chiefs haven’t been a great team to back at Arrowhead Stadium since Reid took over last season, posting a 2-7 ATS mark, although they were listed as an underdog just once at home in a 35-28 loss to the Broncos in November 2013.

The Patriots and Chiefs haven’t met up since 2011, when New England dominated Kansas City on a Monday night at Gillette Stadium, 34-3 as hefty 17-point favorites. Brady and Gronkowski hooked up for two touchdowns, while New England intercepted Tyler Palko three times as the Chiefs closed out a three-week stretch that season scoring just 16 points. The victory by New England was the second as part of a 10-game winning streak before getting bounced by the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.

New England is making its first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2005, when the Patriots lost to the Chiefs, 26-16 as three-point underdogs. Brady was intercepted four times in that defeat, but he’s facing a defense tonight that is without linebacker Derrick Johnson and defensive back Eric Berry, while defensive end Tamba Hali will play in spite of dealing with ankle and knee issues. Charles is listed as probable after sitting out the Dolphins game, but backup running back Joe McKnight is out for the season after suffering an Achilles tendon tear.

Bill Belichick’s club has struggled as a road favorite since the start of 2013, putting together a 2-5 ATS record. The Patriots split the first two games in this role, falling to the Dolphins in Week 1 before blowing out the Vikings without Adrian Peterson in Week 2 by a 30-7 count. New England appeared just once on Monday night football last season, falling at Carolina, 24-20 on a disputed pass interference penalty on the Panthers to close out the game. The loss at Carolina snapped a five-game winning streak by the Patriots on Monday night dating back to 2010.

The Chiefs are appearing on Monday night football for the first time since a 16-13 setback at Pittsburgh in 2012 as 12½-point underdogs as part of a 2-14 season. Arrowhead Stadium will be showcased under the Monday night lights for the first time since knocking off the Chargers as three-point underdogs, 24-20 in 2011.

Primetime games continue to be an ‘over’ bettor’s dream, going 10-2 through the first 12 night contests this season. Underdogs have turned into the play on Monday night this season, cashing in three of four opportunities, while the road team has won each of the last two weeks (Philadelphia and Chicago).

The Patriots are listed as 2½-point favorites at most spots, while there are several three-point numbers still available if you’re looking at the Chiefs. The total is set at 46½ across the board with several 47’s available, while temperatures will be in the high 70’s with no rain. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Monday Night Football Preview
Atssportsline.com

The New England Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) are off to a solid start but haven't looked impressive in two of their three games. They've opened with three of their first four games on the road. Kansas City (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) lost their first two games, then came back with an impressive win, 34-15 over Miami last week. Kansas City hosts New England from Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night at 8:30pmET from Arrowhead Stadium.

Opening and Current Odds: New England opened as a 3.5-point betting odds favorite and moved to 3. The total opened at 46 and moved to 46.6.

Weather: Partly cloudy. East wind 5-10. Gametime temperature: 80.

NFL Key Betting Trends

New England
7-0 ATS in Week 4.
2-7 ATS last 9 road games.
0-7 ATS last 7 on grass.
6-2 ATS last 8 following an ATS loss.

Kansas City
0-6 ATS last 6 home games.
8-3 ATS last 11 in Week 4.
2-6 ATS last 7 in series.
4-12 last 16 matchups on the under following a SU win of more than 14 points.

The Patriots need to establish a passing game

New England may dread trading offensive guard Logan Mankins to Tampa Bay in the preseason for tight end Tim Wright. Quarterback Tom Brady has targeted wide receiver Julian Edelman 27 times in three games and he has 22 catches for 260 yards and one TD (11.8 yards per catch. The other key receivers (Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson) have a combined 14 catches.

Brady has had some success against Kansas City, going 4-1 as a starter. He's also 219 yards away from 50,000 passing yards. On Monday Night Football, Brady has 42 touchdown passes which is tied with Steve Young for the fourth-most TD passes ever on MNF.

What Brady could use is more help with the running game. The running attack is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom of the league. They are averaging just 301.3 yards per game, to rank 27th overall in total offense. Brady ranks 30th with 5.5 yards per attempt and his 82.9 passer rating is 23rd. He has completed just 1 of 13 attempts of 21 yards or longer downfield. With Mankins gone, the Patriots have allowed Brady to be sacked seven times.

They could use more help from running back Stevan Ridley, who has just 176 yards rushing on 52 attempts (3.4 yard per carry). Shane Vereen (96 yards on 20 carries) is a better receiver than runner (9 catches for 52 yards).

Defensively, the Patriots have played well, holding Minnesota and Oakland to a combined 16 points. They are tied for the NFL leasd with six interceptions and have held opponents ot just 272.7 yards per game after allowing 373.1 yards per game last year. Last week, defensive tackle Vince Wilfork intercepted a deflected pass deep in New England territory after the Raiders had a potential-tying touchdown called back due to a penalty.

NFL Key Injuries

New England
CB Alfonso Dennard (shoulder) is out.
WR Aaron Dobson (foot) is questionable.
CB Brandon Browner (suspension) is out one more game.

Kansas City
S Eric Berry (ankle) is doubtful.
RB Joe McKnight (Achilles) is out for the season.
RB De'Anthony Thomas (hamstring) is questionable.
OT Donald Stephenson (suspension) is out.

When Charles plays, the Chiefs are a different team

The Chiefs won their first game last week, defeating Miami, 34-15 as Knile Davis rushed for 132 yards on 32 carries. Davis, the former runner from Arkansas, was playing in place of star runner Jamaal Charles (ankle), who is expected to play on Monday night after missing the last two games.

Quarterback Alex Smith completed 19 of 25 for 186 yards and three touchdowns. He now has four passing touchdowns and three interceptions this season. But Smith has also been sacked 11 times this season, including five last week. Smith has missed right tackle Donald Stephenson, who is out his final game for violating the league's drug policy.

The Chiefs also received some strong production from third-string runner Joe McKnight, who caught six passes for 4 yards and two touchdowns against Miami. However, McKnight is out for the year with an Achilles tendon injury.

Defensively, Kansas City is hurting with linebacker Derrick Johnson and defensive end Mike DeVito out for the year. Star safety Eric Berry is doubtful with a high ankle sprain. Pro Bowl pass rusher Tamba Halli is hampered by an ankle and knee issue, while cornerback Sean Smith (groin) is also playing hurt.

Hali and linebacker Justin Houston have combined for five sacks in the first three games. They sacked quarterback Ryan Tannehill four times last week.

Analysis: The Patriots have to put heat on Brady and should be able to do so with the problems the Patriots have one the offensive line. Kansas City's offense should improve with the addition of Charles, but they don't have the receivers to hurt a Patriots' secondary led by cornerback Darrelle Revis.

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