NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, August 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Saturday's NFL Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
Oakland Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals
Odds: Arizona (-3); Total 39.5
Week 1 of the NFL preseason is nearing a close and for football bettors everywhere it means we are one more week closer to games actually meaning something.
However, there is still plenty of money to be made on preseason betting odds, especially when certain situations pop up that favor one team over the other. This week's Oakland/Arizona definitely fits that latter category, as this is the 2nd preseason game for Arizona after losing in the HOF game a week ago.
Although many of Arizona's starters sat on the sidelines in street clothes during last weeks' 20-18 loss in the HOF game, the fact that this is the second preseason tilt for the rest of the squad is a good thing from a betting perspective. Guys like backup QB Blaine Gabbert – who was 11-for-14 – have already established some sort of rhythm, and when they get on the field this week for the Cardinals after the starters get their one or two series' things could start to turn Arizona's way.
From 2013 through 2015 (there was no HOF game in 2016), NFL teams that got that extra game early on in the preseason ended up going 4-2 ATS (4-2 O/U) during “Week 1” of the preseason the following week. So while the level of play in the HOF game may never be spectacular, it does suggest that the extra time on the field helps those two teams against the spread the next week.
Arizona fits that bill in this one, and with VegasInsider.com's betting percentages showing plenty of support (75%+) for the underdogs from Oakland, there may actually be quite a bit of value in laying the points here.
All of that Oakland loves stems in large part to the high expectations many have for the Raiders this year, but a common mistake bettors make during the preseason is projecting regular season expectations on those same teams in games that mean next to nothing. Oakland should be one of those teams that we see get plenty of support from bettors all year long, but it looks like many are seeing the three points they are getting with Oakland here and jumping all over it.
Public underdogs are typically bankroll killers in NFL betting (regular season or not), and with history on the side of the Cardinals with this being their second game, those of you considering grabbing the points with Oakland as many already have may want to reconsider.
With Arizona's starters likely to see some time on the field, and possibly even backup QB Drew Stanton getting significant reps before we see Gabbert again, the depth advantage has to lie with the Cardinals in this spot.
With that being the case and Arizona being a favorite that's getting next to nothing in terms of betting support, I've got to lay the points here and hopefully it will add a bit more money to my bankroll for those regular season bets on the Raiders that many have been clamouring for all summer long.
Best Bet: Arizona -3
Saturday’s NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Primer
Covers.com
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 39.5)
Raiders
Head coach Jack Del Rio won’t say exactly how much time his starters will see but bettors can assume injured stars Amari Cooper and Khalid Mack both won’t play. Del Rio also hinted veteran running back Marshawn Lynch won’t see much – if any – action in the preseason.
Starting QB Derek Carr is coming off an excellent season totaling 28 TDs and almost 4000 passing yards. He’s also coming off a broken leg he suffered at the end of last year. Don’t expect much playing time for the established star player.
That means lots of Connor Cook and former Buffalo Bills first round pick EJ Manuel under center for the Raiders in their first preseason game.
Cardinals
Carson Palmer and the rest of the Arizona Cardinals first teamers will start and are expected to play about 15 snaps. Of note, Palmer threw just once in full practice this week according to Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. Head coach Bruce Arians wants his 37-year-old QB to be rested and ready for the start of the regular season.
Backup QB Drew Stanton is expected to play the second quarter while Blaine Gabbert, who was impressive for the Cards in the Hall of Fame Game, will take all the snaps in the second half.
Line moves
The spread and total are both holding steady. Worth noting the 39.5 Over/Under line is tied for the highest number set in the preseason this year.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (+3, 37)
Titans
Head coach Mike Mularkey hasn’t said exactly how much time his first teamers will get, but starting quarterback Marcus Mariota is expected to play the first series or two in this game. First round pick wideout Corey Davis will not play because of a sore hamstring.
Matt Cassel and Alex Tanney should split the reminder of the snaps under center after Mariota makes his exit. Cassel is the incumbent backup quarterback but reporters close to the team suggest Tanney has a shot at dethroning Cassel from the No. 2 spot on the depth chart.
Jets
It’s a three-man race for the starting quarterback job according to head coach Todd Bowles. That means Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty are auditioning through their performances in preseason for the starting job.
Expect McCown to start followed by Hackenberg and then Petty.
Line moves
The Jets opened as 2.5-point home dogs but have been bet up to +3. The total, meanwhile, moved down half a point from 37.5 to 37.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+3, 37.5)
Cowboys
There’s not much news out about how long the Cowboys starters will play on Saturday. Dallas beat writers are busy reporting on the effect of star running back Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspension will have on the team moving forward.
None of the Cowboys’ starters played in the Hall of Fame Game a week ago, so we should be safe to speculate on the first stringers seeing at least a series on Saturday.
Rams
The Rams are in a similar position where there big team news is not what’s going on the field. Los Angeles traded cornerback E.J. Gaines to the Buffalo Bills for former fourth overall pick Sammy Watkins. Watkins won't suit up for this game obviously and neither will holdout defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
Second year signal caller Jared Goff is expected to start while Sean Mannion and Dan Orlovsky will back him up. Talk about an underwhelming trio. Orlovsky was signed just before the Rams opened their training camp last month.
Line moves
The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites but have been bet up to -3. The total is set at 37.5