NFL Preseason Primer: Saturday Game Betting Breakdown
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
Dallas at Arizona (-3, 41)
This will be the Cowboys' third game of the preseason. After pulling off an outright win in the Hall of Fame Game, they lost last week in Oakland, 19-17, on a short week. After sitting out the HOF Game, QB Tony Romo played two series against the Raiders, one of them resulting in a field goal. However that drive also started at the Oakland 16. Romo was actually better on the second drive, which resulted in a blocked field goal. Dallas' special teams were not good overall in the loss.
One of the big storylines in Cardinals camp right now is the play of rookie Tyrann Mathieu. The "Honey Badger" will get his 1st start Saturday afternoon after impressing teammates and coaches alike in practice. Arizona won its preseason opener, shutting out Green Bay 17-0. As you can probably guess, the defense was quite impressive as it forced a fumble, had one interception and three sacks. The kicking game was not good as the team was just 1-for-4 on field goal attempts.
Tennessee at Cincinnati (-2.5, 41)
The Titans lost last week at home to the Redskins, 22-21. That said, they did lead 14-7 at the end of the first quarter and rushed for 92 yards, 58 of them coming on a Chris Johnson touchdown. QB Jake Locker looked okay, completing 7 of 11 passes for 58 yards, but was sacked twice and the first team offense went three and out on the opening drive. He played most of the first half last week and should do so again here.
Locally, this game will be blacked out as it did not sell out. That's too bad because the Bengals look like they could be a very good team in 2013. They won the preseason opener 34-10 at Atlanta. I really like rookie running back Giovanni Bernard, who will split time with incumbent Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Josh Johnson and John Skelton gave the team strong QB play last week behind starter Andy Dalton.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-2.5, 38.5)
The prognostications for both of these teams is rather bleak in 2013. The big story here is that for a second straight week, the Jets will go with Mark Sanchez as the starter after head coach Rex Ryan called Geno Smith's performance in 11 on 11 drills Wednesday "brutal". Sanchez was his usual self last week, throwing a pick-six and a touchdown pass. Smith went 6-of-7 for 47 yards, but did not lead any scoring drives in the team's 26-17 loss at Detroit.
Jacksonville was clobbered 27-3 last week at home by Miami in new head coach Gus Bradley's debut. Blaine Gabbert looked as awful as ever, completing only five passes for 19 yards, though his teammates offered little assistance, dropping two passes. Chad Henne completed 8 of 11 passes for 87 yards and looked better. Receiver Justin Blackmon was taken to the locker room following an on the field outburst.
Miami at Houston (-3, 41)
This will be the third preseason game for the Dolphins, who lost the Hall of Fame Game, but came back and clobbered the Jaguars last week. After taking just 10 snaps in the opener, QB Ryan Tannehill was more effective against Jacksonville, completing five of nine passes and one touchdown. Last week was Miami's first ever preseason win in six tries under head coach Joe Philbin. The depth chart is expected to be the exact same as last week.
Houston won its preseason opener last week on the road, beating Minnesota 27-13. Rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins made an exciting touchdown grab and has the coaching staff excited that they finally may have found the compliment to Andre Johnson. A number of Texans starters did not play last week, including RB Arian Foster, DE JJ Watt, LB Brian Cushing, S Ed Reed and Johnson. Cushing will play here for sure. There is a battle for the backup QB job between TJ Yates and Case Keenum. Keenum will play second string Saturday.
Green Bay at St. Louis (-4.5, 40)
After being shutout at home in their opener, 17-0 by the Cardinals, the Packers will be looking to bounce back this week. A number of players (17 in all!) did not dress last week due to injury. QB Aaron Rodgers played one series and led his team down to the goal line where they could not punch it in. Backup Graham Harrell saw most of the work last week.
St. Louis was openly mocked by Browns color commentator Bernie Kosar last week, but actually had a chance to tie the game late. Still though, their starters were outscored 17-0. A couple key coaching trends here as Packers coach Mike McCarthy is 20-9 Over in all preseason games while Rams coach Jeff Fisher is 3-0 ATS all-time in the preseason with at least eight days rest.
Denver at Seattle (-4.5, 41)
I'm tempted to call this a "Super Bowl Preview" as right now if you made me pick, these would be my predicted AFC and NFC Champs. Both teams won last week on the road against a division foe of the other. Seattle pulled away from San Diego late, winning 31-10, while Denver won an ugly 10-6 game at San Francisco.
I would not expect Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson to play much here. Manning played just one series last week. The Broncos were fortunate to win the game as they finished with a +4 edge in turnovers.
Packers at Rams: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv
Here we delve into the matchup between the host St. Louis Rams and the Green Bay Packers.
According to Bovada the Rams will be -3.5 home favorites, with a total of 42.
Last week, neither team distinguished themselves, with both ending up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Packers defeat was the more embarrassing one, coming in a shutout loss at home to the Arizona Cardinals. The Rams’ loss wasn’t much better, falling in a 27-19 road decision to the Cleveland Browns.
While both teams enter this game with an 0-1 mark, the Packers are looking to finally dent the scoreboard. The effort against the Cardinals was uncharacteristic of this team, which has long been a consistent winner for Over bettors.
In the Mike McCarthy era, the Over has been among the best football picks in the preseason, with Green Bay going above the number in 20 of the 29 games played When McCarthy roamed the sidelines.
During this same stretch, the team’s offense tends to get a wakeup call following a defeat, with an outstanding 8-1 record in favor of the Over following a Packer loss.
Finally, when the total is between 35.5 and 42, McCarthy’s squad has racked up a strong 14-5 mark in favor of the Over. Even when you narrow the range to simply 40 and above, the numbers stand out once again with a 5-2 nod to the Over.
The Rams are coming off an Over, but that’s been a common occurrence over the previous five seasons. During that period, St. Louis has seen 14 of its 21 contests finish above the listed number, including five of the last six home games.
A few more instances, focused on Green Bay’s circumstances, give a strong lean to the Over when you look at the entire NFL preseason since 2008. Beginning with that campaign, any team that is coming off a matchup in which it failed to reach double digits in scoring, has a 39-16 record in favor of the Over in its next contest.
Piggybacking on that is the sports handicapping fact that any road team over the previous five seasons that scored six points or less in its previous game has gone Over in 45 of the 62 games, a winning percentage of nearly 73 percent.
While the preseason is known for quirky (or even apathetic) performances by teams, the fact that both teams will likely be aiming for a more consistent offensive attack is a strong reason why the latter of our two free football picks for tonight is
Play Green Bay-St. Louis Over 42
Saturday Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Friday's Betting Recap: Home favorites finished 3-1 SU/ATS with the lone loser being Kansas City. The Chiefs lost to the 49ers, 15-13 as 2 ½-point 'chalk,' as San Francisco scored a late touchdown to grab the outright win. The 'over' went 2-2 last night, as the highest total on the board (43) stayed 'under' in the Vikings/Bills contest (20-16). Home teams own a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS record in Week 2 of the preseason, while totals have been split down the middle at 4-4.
Cowboys at Cardinals
Week 1 Results:
Cowboys lost to Raiders, 19-17 as 1 ½-point road favorites
Cardinals beat Packers, 17-0 as two-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Dallas: T. Romo, K. Orton, N. Stephens, A. Tanney
Arizona: C. Palmer, D. Stanton, R. Lindley, C. Terbush
Preseason Coaching Records:
Jason Garrett (DAL): 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
Garrett is 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS on road
Bruce Arians (ARZ): 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS
First home preseason game
Titans at Bengals
Week 1 Results:
Titans lost to Redskins, 22-21 as three-point home favorites
Bengals beat Falcons, 34-10 as 1 ½-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Tennessee: J. Locker, R. Fitzpatrick, R. Smith
Cincinnati: A. Dalton, J. Johnson, J. Skelton
Preseason Coaching Records:
Mike Munchak (TEN): 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Munchak is 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on road
Marvin Lewis (CIN): 21-21 SU, 21-20-1 ATS
Bengals have split their last 10 games against the spread as a preseason favorite since 2009.
Jaguars at Jets
Week 1 Results:
Jaguars lost to Dolphins, 27-3 as one-point home underdogs
Jets lost to Lions, 25-17 as four-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Jacksonville: B. Gabbert, C. Henne, M. Kafka, M. Scott
NY Jets: M. Sanchez, G. Smith, G. McElroy
Preseason Coaching Records:
Gus Bradley (JAX): 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS
Jaguars are 2-7 ATS the last nine preseason games
Rex Ryan (NYJ): 6-11 SU, 7-10 ATS
Jets have lost six straight preseason games both SU and ATS.
Dolphins at Texans
Week 1 Results:
Dolphins beat Jaguars, 27-3 as one-point road favorites
Texans beat Vikings, 27-13 as one-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Miami: R. Tannehill, M. Moore
Houston: M. Schaub, T. Yates, C. Keenum
Preseason Coaching Records:
Joe Philbin (MIA): 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Dolphins have cashed the 'under' in six of their last nine preseason games
Gary Kubiak (HOU): 17-12 SU, 17-10-2 ATS
Texans own a 7-2 SU/ATS record the last nine preseason games
Packers at Rams
Week 1 Results:
Packers lost to Cardinals, 17-0 as two-point home favorites
Rams lost to Browns, 27-19 as 3 ½-point road underdogs
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Green Bay: A. Rodgers, G. Harrell, V. Young, B. Coleman
St. Louis: S. Bradford, K. Clemens, A. Davis
Preseason Coaching Records:
Mike McCarthy (GB): 14-15 SU, 13-14-2 ATS
Packers have hit 'under' in four of last five preseason games
Jeff Fisher (STL): 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five home preseason games
Broncos at Seahawks
Week 1 Results:
Broncos beat 49ers, 10-6 as three-point road underdogs
Seahawks beat Chargers, 31-10 as three-point home favorites
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
Denver: P. Manning, B. Osweiler, Z. Dysert
Seattle: R. Wilson, B. Quinn, T. Jackson
Preseason Coaching Records:
John Fox (DEN): 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS
Broncos are 4-0 to the 'under' the last four away preseason games
Pete Carroll (SEA): 8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS
Seahawks have won and covered their last five preseason games