NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, December 17th, 2016
MIAMI (8 - 5) at NY JETS (4 - 9) - 12/17/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami at NY Jets
Miami: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
New York: 8-0 ATS after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
NFL Week 15
Dolphins (8-5) @ Jets (4-9) — Tannehill (sprained ACL/MCL) is out, but maybe not for year; Matt Moore gets his first start since 2011 (13-12 career record). His backup is WKU rookie Doughty, who has never played in NFL. Miami (-3.5) won first meeting 27-23 in Week 9, running kick back for GW TD with 5:15 left in game; that snapped 3-game skid with Jets. Miami has won six of last eight visits here. Dolphins won seven of last eight games overall, are 2-4 on road (won at Chargers/Rams). Jets rallied from down 17-3 at half to win in OT in Santa Clara LW, snapping 4-game skid. New York is 1-5 at home, with three losses by 5 or less points- this is best team Petty has started against (previous starts vs LA/SF). Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games, 2-7 in Jets’ last nine. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Saturday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (2.5, 37.5)
With quarterback Ryan Tannehill sidelined by an ACL and MCL sprain in his right knee, the Miami Dolphins have little choice but to turn the keys over to veteran Matt Moore in their drive to end an eight-year playoff drought. The 32-year-old Moore will make his first start in five years on Saturday night as Miami begins a stretch of three straight games versus AFC East opponents with a visit to the New York Jets.
"My heart breaks, man. I know how much (Tannehill) just puts his heart and soul into this and hard work," said Moore, who went 3-for-5 for 47 yards to lead Miami to a game-winning field goal in Sunday's 26-23 triumph over Arizona. While the Dolphins reside on the wrong end of a tiebreaker for the final wild-card spot, the Jets' destination is all but assured as they have made themselves comfortable in the cellar of the division. New York snapped a four-game losing skid in impressive fashion on Sunday, however, as Bilal Powell exploded for 179 yards and two touchdowns on 34 touches in a 23-17 overtime win versus San Francisco. Powell could receive the bulk of the work against Miami's 30th-ranked rush defense (133.8 yards per game) with veteran running back Matt Forte nursing a knee injury.
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (3) - Jets (4.5) + home field (-3) = Jets -1.5
LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened the week as 3-point dogs at home and that number had dropped half a point to 2.5. The total opened at 40.5 and that was to high according to the betting public and has been bet down three full points to 37.5. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The first NFL Saturday match of the season finds AFC East division rivals the Miami Dolphins tackling the New York Jets with the Fish forced to resort to backup QB Matt Moore in this contest. The combination of a cold weather site and the pressure of having to win to stay in the AFC Wild Card chase weighs heavily on Miami, but newbie Jets QB Bruce Petty and a lousy 1-5 record at home this season by the Jets also factors in". Covers Expert Marc Lawrence
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We absolutely love these off-night games because the handle increases quite a bit. It's not a sext matchup so the majority of the action will come in Saturday, but right now we've got about 70 percent of the money on New York. The sharps took the +3 early and then we've seen some of the public follow suit. The expectance of inclement weather has dropped the total four full points." - Scott Cooley odds consultant of BookMaker.eu
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for MetLife Stadium Saturday night is calling for 1-2 inches of snow changing to rain, temperatures in the mid-40’s and north winds of 11 mph.
INJURY REPORT:
Dolphins - S Isa Abdul-Quddus (probable, neck), OT Branden Albert (probable, wrist), CB Bobby McCain (probable, hand), LB Spencer Paysinger (probable, thigh), C Anthony Steen (probable, toe), LB Kiko Alonso (probable, hamstring), CB Xavien Howard (questionable, knee), LB Jelani Jenkins (questionable, knee), DE Mario Williams (questionable, ankle), QB Ryan Tannehill (out indefinitely, knee), DE Dion Jordan (IR, knee), C Mike Pouncey (IR, hip), S Reshad Jones (IR, shoulder).
Jets - WR Brandon Marshall (probable, knee), WR Quincy Enunwa (probable, ribs), RB Matt Forte (questionable, knee), LB Mike Catapano (questionable, knee), OL Brent Qvale (questionable, hamstring), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (questionable, ankle), DT Steve McLendon (questionable, hamstring), WR Jalin Marshall (questionable, concussion), LB Lorenzo Mauldin (questionable, ankle), RB Khiry Robinson (questionable, leg), CB Buster Skrine (questionable, concussion), TE Brandon Bostick (questionable, ankle), TE Kellen Davis (IR, elbow), OT Breno Giacomini (IR, back), S Marcus Gilchrist (IR, knee), S Antonio Allen (IR, concussion)
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 O/U): While Moore is known as a bit of a gunslinger, coach Adam Gase likely will look to take pressure off the veteran quarterback and lean on Jay Ajayi and the ground game as it targets a Jets team that was gashed for 193 rushing yards by Carlos Hyde on Sunday. Ajayi amassed 111 yards in Miami's 27-23 victory over New York on Nov. 6 but has struggled to get untracked of late with 154 yards on 50 carries over his last three games. Ajayi recorded back-to-back 200-yard performances with Mike Pouncey in the lineup, but the Pro Bowl center was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with an ailing hip.
ABOUT THE JETS (4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U): Quarterback Bryce Petty has enjoyed quite the connection with promising wideout Robby Anderson, with the pair hooking up on a 26-yard reception to set up the winning touchdown in overtime Sunday. The 23-year-old Anderson has converted 23 targets over the last two games into 10 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. By comparison, veteran wide receiver and former Dolphin Brandon Marshall (team-leading 56 catches, 744 yards) matched his season low with three receptions for 33 yards versus San Francisco.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.
CONSENSUS: 64 percent of the public is grabbing the road favorite Dolphins and 53 percent are taking the Over.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Dolphins (-2.5, 38.5) at Jets
Miami and New York will both be starting backup quarterbacks in this game. The Dolphins will start veteran Matt Moore after losing Ryan Tannehill to a knee injury last week. Moore has been in the NFL for a long time, and he has been in this position numerous times. However, Moore has thrown just 16 regular season passes over the last four years. With Tannehill under center, Miami’s offense was only averaging 21.6 points per game versus defenses that give up 22.7 points per game. Moore and the Dolphins' offense will face a New York defense that gives up 24.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play, so he could have some success tonight.
New York snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 23-17 come from behind win in overtime at San Francisco last week. Quarterback Bryce Petty will be under center once again, but the Jets haven't shown an ability to hit deep passing plays with him on the field. Petty is a dink and dunk quarterback who only averages 6.1 yards per pass attempt. New York’s offense is only averaging 17.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play while the Miami defense is giving up 22.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road. Petty will likely struggle once again tonight.