NFL Betting News and Notes Saturday, December 23, 2017

Colts (3-11) @ Ravens (8-6)— Baltimore won six of its last seven games, is tied in Wild Card race; in their last five games, Ravens won field position by 17-13-14-5-17 yards. Baltimore is 3-1-1 as home favorites, with wins by 14-40-7-24 points. Indianapolis lost its last five games, is 0-4 vs spread since its bye; Colts scored 12.6 ppg in last five games- they’re 2-5 as road underdogs. Colts called Baltimore home thru 1983; they’re 4-4 vs Ravens here, losing 24-10/24-9 in last two, last of which was 2012 playoff game. AFC North home favorites are 5-6-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC South road underdogs are 4-5-1. NFL-wide this season, double digit favorites are 11-13 vs spread. Over is 8-2 in Ravens’ last 10 games, 0-6 in Colts’ last six games.

Vikings (11-3) @ Packers (7-7)— Aaron Rodgers is on IR, will miss last two games. Packers lost 23-10 (-3) in Minnesota in Week 6, the game when Rodgers got hurt; Vikings won three of last four series games, but are 1-6-1 in last eight visits to Lambeau. Minnesota needs another win to clinch first-round bye in playoffs; they’re 4-2 in true road games, 2-2 as road favorites- the losses were in Pittsburgh/Charlotte. Green Bay is 3-6 in its last nine games, 1-3 in last four home games; favorites are 6-1 vs spread in their home games this season. Home teams are 4-4-1 in NFC North divisional games this year. Over is 3-1 in Vikings’ last four road games; 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games. Night game in Lambeau on Dec 23; weather will likely be a factor. Packers are 4-3 vs spread when Hundley starts this year.

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Saturday's Best Bet
December 21, 2017
By BetDSI

NFL Week 16 Saturday Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Week 16 brings us another double-header on Saturday as we've got two games pitting playoff contenders against teams already out of the mix, and the results of these two games should make for an interesting rest of the weekend in the AFC and NFC North divisions.

Baltimore hosts Indianapolis in the first contest as the Ravens look to sneak into one of those Wildcard spots for the time being in the AFC, while Minnesota visits Green Bay and continues their push to a possible #1 seed in the NFC.

It's that Vikings/Packers game I've already added to my betting board as this division rivalry might not have the same intensity as it has in the past given where both teams sit in the standings. I believe I can use that mindset to my advantage here as Week 16 begins.

BetDSI.eu Odds: Minnesota (-9); Total set at 40.5

Even if the Vikings aren't able to pass the Philadelphia Eagles for that #1 seed, securing a 1st round bye would still be a happy consolation prize for this team heading into the playoffs. The Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year so there is strong potential that they end up getting home field advantage throughout the post-season (with the #1 seed or not) should the Vikings finish the season strong, and sweeping the season series with the Packers would be another notch on their belts in 2017. Minnesota did win the first meeting 23-10 in the game where LB Anthony Barr broke Packers QB Aaron Rodgers collarbone and a win on Saturday would give Minnesota their first season sweep over Green Bay in years.

The Packers have decided to shut Rodgers down for the rest of the year now that they are eliminated from playoff contention, and now it's time to truly see what they've got in backup Brett Hundley. Yes, Hundley started those seven games with Rodgers on the shelf, but those games were all about trying to stay afloat in the playoff race and Green Bay's coaching staff really coached Hundley and called plays with that in mind. The Packers were stuck in the mentality of “playing not to lose” rather than going out and being aggressive during that seven-game stretch and while they did manage to go 3-4 SU, beating the likes of Cleveland (in OT), Tampa Bay (in OT), and Chicago isn't really anything to write home about.

However, with Green Bay's 2017 fate now determined, there is no more need for the Packers coaching staff to treat Hundley with kid gloves. They've got two more games left to truly see what they've got with him and how well he can conduct this offense, and I fully expect the Packers to let him loose in this game. There is nothing left to lose now for Green Bay, and seeing if Hundley can produce against a Vikings team that he has already faced once this year (albeit in relief), now becomes the goal for this organization.

Minnesota's goal this week is to simply win and move on and when you combine that mentality with the likelihood of Green Bay pulling out all the stops, that -9 on the road is a lot of chalk to swallow. Fading a team after they clinched a division crown is one strategy I'm never really against (in any sport) as intensity on both sides of the ball tend to let up a bit and this could be that spot for the Vikings. The home team in this rivalry is 10-4 ATS the past 14 meetings which includes a 2-6 ATS run for Minnesota in Green Bay, and with the underdog cashing ATS tickets in five of the last six contests, I believe it's take the points with the Packers or nothing here.

The side isn't the only play I like in this game though as this total of 40.5 is much too low for a game like this. I've already discussed the notions of Green Bay opening up the playbook and letting loose, and when you combine that with a letdown in focus/intensity for this Vikings team that's just accomplished their first goal for the year (ie win the division), chances are we see some points.

Seven of the past 10 trips to Lambeau Field have resulted in 'over' tickets cashing for the Vikings, and Minnesota is on a 4-1 O/U run after allowing 7 or fewer points in their last game. Minneosta is also 4-1 O/U in their last five on the road as their defense doesn't seem to always travel with them, and Hundley will definitely be more prepared for what that Minnesota defense brings this time around.

On Green Bay's side, the Packers are 6-1 O/U in their last seven division games, including a 3-0 O/U run when they are the home side. They are also 8-2 O/U in their last 10 against a winning team, 6-1 O/U after failing to cover a point spread in their last outing, and defensively this Packers unit has given up 23 or more points in eight straight games against teams with a winning record currently. With no playoff push left to play for, that Packers D could lack some intensity of their own and that's never a bad thing when rooting for points.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bets:

Green Bay +9
Over 40.5 points

Market Watch: Who Are the Sharps Betting? NFL Week 16

Date 22nd Dec 2017
Author Corey Pabst

Last Updated: 2017-12-22

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NFL sharp betting week has has been demonstrated through the inconsistency with which we are covering our identified sharp plays of the week, it has been a down year for many professional bettors and sportsbooks alike on the NFL side of things. Much of this pervasive peril can be attributed to the astonishing rate at which favorites have covered the number this year, and just as we thought the underdogs were starting to turn things around, favorites went 11-3 ATS in week 15. And though the Joe Public recreational bettor will thrive on weeks like these, professionals will continue to struggle, because often it is in a public bias towards betting on the perceived “better” teams that value is generated on underdogs from a point spread perspective. The sharps will continue to stick their guns, however, as they know that success within the world of sports betting is far from a short-term endeavor, and momentum always sways.

Going 1-2 last week, it was the Chicago Bears on Saturday that provided us and the sharps our first loss of the weekend, going down, 20-10, in Detroit as a 5-point dog. Diving into the box score, Chicago won most statistical categories: outgaining Detroit in 349 yds-293, and winning the first down battle 22-18, yards per play 5.5-5.1, while even controlling time of possession by almost 2 minutes. It was the inexperience of Mitchell Trubisky, and his 3 INT’s, that really made the difference, however, as turnovers usually do, and out-performing Detroit statistically wasn’t enough to overcome a -2-turnover differential on the road.

The one bright spot of the day came in New Jersey, where the Giants, as a 7.5-point home underdog, got the cover in a, 34-29, loss to the Eagles. The Giants went up big early in this game, 20-6, but allowed the Eagles to roar back for the win, thankfully holding on for the cover in the end. It’s surprising that the Giants found a way to lose the game when you consider that they outgained the Eagles by 163 yards, 1 yard per play, and 5 first downs, but we’ll take the cover on what was clearly the right side in this one.

And finally, yet again, it was the Cleveland Browns that were the only statistically-supported wrong side for the sharps, losing 27-10 at home to the Ravens as a 7-point underdog. While getting outgained by 100 yards, surrendering 8 more first downs than gained, and losing the YPP battle by .5, it was really the -4-net turnover differential combined with the allowance of 2 defensive/special team’s TD’s that were the icing on the cake. It’s hard to believe that the sharp bettors will continue to back the Browns week-after-week without reward, but they bet value, and every week that the Browns fail to cover, the line value increases as backing the Browns becomes progressively less attractive to the betting public.

With another tough week behind us, and momentum due to swing back into our direction, we venture on to Week 16, hoping to finish out the regular season strong with the sharp money as our guide.

New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Off-shore opening line: NYJ 7 -110
Consensus current line: NYJ 7 -115
Off-shore Betting Consensus: 60% LAC
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As one of the two biggest underdogs of the NFL season, last week, the New York Jets, with Bryce Petty at the helm, put forth a spirited effort in New Orleans. Managing to stay within 4 points of the Saints heading into the 4th quarter, the Jets would go on to eventually lose the game, 31-17, but stayed comfortably within the giant number. The Chargers, meanwhile, saw their playoff hopes dwindle down into the realm of near non-existence (below 15%), as they lost, 30-13, in a must-win game that had them close as the favorite on the road in Kansas City. And now, with their playoff dreams all but shattered and the momentum of their season shifted, the Chargers are laying a huge number on the road in New Jersey, opening as a 7-point favorite at Bookmaker. With LA receiving a large majority of the spread bets thus far, we’ve seen what I like to call reverse juice movement, as the 7’s out there in the market now are juiced to the New York side as a consensus. Of the major books with juiced 7’s, The Greek is charging the highest tax at 7 -120, while Pinnacle is charging the least amount of extra juice at 7 -109, though it should be noted the Pinnacle opened this game at the upper extreme of the market, at +7.5 -123 on the Jets. One 6.5, has officially popped at BetOnline, now juiced to the LA side, while 5Dimes is posting the lone 7.5, at – 135 on the Jets side. With the recreational bettor likely to favor the Chargers closer to kick, I’d try to wait and see if you can get a fair price on the 7 with New York, rather than lay extra juice now. I’d watch the market closely, however, because with 6.5 already showing itself, there is no guarantee that the rest of the market doesn’t eventually follow suit.

Tennessee Titans vs. LA Rams

Off-shore opening line: TEN 7 -105
Consensus current line: TEN 7 -119
Off-shore Betting Consensus: 65% LAR

The Rams couldn’t have put together a more impressive performance last week, going into arguably the most difficult place to win, in Seattle, and coming away with an absolutely dominant, 42-7, win over the Seahawks as an eventual 1-point underdog. And with their stock at quite possibly the highest point it has been all season, they will go on the road and are laying a full touchdown to an 8-5 Titans team that is in control of its playoff destiny and in desperate need of a win, after 2-straight losses on the West Coast to the Cardinals and the 49ers. The betting public is all-aboard the Rams train, thus far, and bets have come in on LA at a 65% rate, while the number is beginning to trend in the opposite direction. Opening officially off-shore at 7 -110, all of the 7’s in the market are now heavily juiced to the Titans side, save for Bovada (7 -110), while 6.5’s are beginning to show up at The Greek and BetOnline, to name the major players, showing extra juice to the Rams side south of 7. 5Dimes is the sole book at the upper extreme of the market at 7.5, but is charging -140 on that hook. This is another line which calls for a close watch, as you’d like to wait it out and not pay extra juice on 7, if the public gets ahold of it and the juice moves, but with 6.5’s beginning to show up, you certainly do not want to take the points south of 7.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Off-shore opening line: SF 5.5 -110
Consensus current line: SF 4 -110
Off-shore Betting Consensus: 62% JAX

Now 3-0 with Jimmy G under center, the San Francisco 49ers are off of an impressive performance against the Titans, which though didn’t beat the closing number, got the 49ers the win behind Garoppolo’s 381 yards passing. The Jags are coming into this game off of 3 straight wins of their own, with all 3 being at home and in dominant fashion. But now, the Jags will travel back out to the west coast, where before this 3-game stretch they lost outright in a very similar situation as a 4-point favorite to the Cardinals. With this number opening officially at 5.5 off-shore at Bookmaker, the betting public isn’t buying the Jimmy G hype, and have come in the Jags at over a 60% rate thus far. Sharp bettors, on the other hand, appear to be buying it, as this number has been bet down against consensus to most 4’s with some 4.5’s still available. The 4.5’s out there, are at some of the more public shops, such as Bovada and MyBookie, while the 4’s are at some of the sharper books such as Pinnacle and BetCris. Those 4.5 -110’s that are out there look pretty attractive currently and I’d certainly grab those if you have the ability, but I’m not so sure I’d take the soft 4 just yet this early into the week. With recreational money expected to favor the Jags, there is no reason to believe we don’t at least see better prices on 4’s closer to game-time, or perhaps even some 4.5’s at a decent price when the market closes. Therefore, as is the case with most sharp plays these days in the NFL, it makes sense to wait it out and get the best number you can, and play back against the recreational affinity for favorites, especially in times like these, in which the market has been forced to compensate for the recent anomalous success of favorites.