NFL Betting News and Notes Saturday, December 26

NFL Week 16 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles fell to Arizona on Sunday night, but still control their destiny as they look to claim the NFC East and avoid consecutive seasons without making the playoffs under head coach Chip Kelly. They won 10 games last year in just missing out. In 2015, the only way they won’t make it is if they fail to reach .500, which would make Kelly’s offseason overhaul of the roster in his first year controlling all personnel decisions a complete failure. Sam Bradford continued a disappointing run as the starting quarterback with another crucial turnover against the Cardinals, but did connect with Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, who are finally producing in the manner they were expected to when the season began.

Washington won the first meeting between these teams at home 23-20 in Week 4 and have prevailed in the last two meetings by scoring on its last possession. Kirk Cousins engineered a 15-play, 90-yard drive to play hero in that one and comes off his second four-touchdown game of the season in beating Buffalo 35-25 to give his team a 6-2 home record. The ‘Skins are just 1-5 on the road in large part because Cousins has thrown nine interceptions and just six TDs away from Landover this season. The Eagles are 3-4 at “the Linc” and would suffer their fourth losing season at home in the last five years if they fail to get this one.

NFL Week 16

Redskins (7-7) @ Eagles (6-8) -- Washington wins NFC East with win here; there is chaos if they lose. Redskins blew 13-0 halftime lead, scored in last minute to beat Philly 23-20 (+3) at home in Week 4, outgaining Eagles 417-320. Waashington won four of last six games, is 1-5 on road (2-4 as road dog), with losses by 11-6-14-17-28 on foreign soil- win was 24-21 at Chicago two weeks ago. Philly lost four of last six games, three of last four at home- they're 2-3 as home faves, giving up 382 yards on ground last two games. Iggles are 6-4 in last ten series games, 3-1 in last four here; four of last six series totals were 47+. Over is 6-3 in last nine Redskin games, 4-1 in last five Philly tilts. Eagles are -8 in turnovers last six games.

Armadillosports.com

NFC East heats up Saturday
By Sportsbook.ag

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (7-7) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Philadelphia -3.0, Total: 47.5

The Redskins will be looking to clinch the NFC East title when they face the Eagles in Philadelphia on Saturday.

It has been a wild season for the Redskins, but a win 35-25 victory over the Bills in Week 15 has the team in position to make the postseason. If Washington beats Philadelphia on Saturday night then the team will clinch the division.

The Eagles really hurt themselves with a 40-17 loss at home against the Cardinals on Sunday night. Philadelphia would need to win out to make the postseason at this point. These teams met earlier in the season in Washington and the Redskins won that game 23-20 as a three-point home underdog. Yet, the Eagles have won two straight games against the Redskins in Philadelphia and will be hoping to spoil Washington’s party on Saturday.

Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse since 1992. The Eagles will also be up against a Redskins team that is 6-15 ATS as a road underdog over the past three seasons.

Philadelphia will have to overcome some significant injuries this week, as TE Zach Ertz (Concussion) and CB Byron Maxwell (Shoulder) are questionable for Saturday’s game. QB Sam Bradford (Shoulder) is likely to play, but he is banged up and won’t be at 100%.

If the Redskins are going to beat the Eagles and win the division on Saturday then Kirk Cousins is going to need to play one heck of a game. The quarterback has been a different person when playing at home versus on the road.

Cousins has thrown for 2,170 yards with 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions at home this season, but he has thrown for just 1,455 yards with six touchdowns and a miserable nine interceptions on the road. He will need to avoid mistakes on Saturday and ride the momentum he has going for him at the moment.

Defensively, this Redskins team is really playing well recently. Washington has allowed 21 or less points in three of the past four games. If the team can dig deep and hold the Eagles to a similar number then the Redskins should have a good chance of clinching their spot in the playoffs.

Philadelphia has been lousy defensively this season, allowing 25.9 PPG (27th in NFL). If this team is going to stay alive in the postseason race then it will need to make things difficult on Kirk Cousins. He is prone to throwing interceptions on the road, so the Eagles will need to send some pressure to make him uncomfortable in the pocket on Saturday.

Philadelphia will need Sam Bradford to play a good game on Saturday. He put up good numbers against Washington earlier in the season, throwing for 270 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. The stats didn’t translate into a win though and he must keep his defense off the field by putting together some long drives in this game.

The Eagles will also need to get things going on the ground in this one. DeMarco Murray has rushed for just 37 yards on 13 carries over the past two weeks and Ryan Mathews has rushed for only 86 yards on 24 carries in that time. The Eagles need to show more of a commitment to the rushing attack in Week 16.

Saturday Night Football Betting Preview: Washington at Philadelphia
By Covers.com

Washington at Philadelphia (-3, 48)

Washington flopped in their last bid to take control of the NFC East, but they can wrap up the division title with a victory at the visiting Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday night. Although Washington holds a one-game lead over Philadelphia and the New York Giants, the Eagles can win the NFC East with victories in their last two games.

Washington rebounded from a lackluster home loss to Dallas on Dec. 7 to knock off Chicago and Buffalo, posting back-to-back victories for the first time this season. Philadelphia bounced back from a three-game skid with wins over New England and Buffalo before it was demolished at home by the Arizona Cardinals 40-17 last week, putting it in a win-out situation. "I'm guaranteeing a win," Eagles defensive end Fletcher Cox said. "What am I supposed to say? That I think we're going to lose or something? No." The last three meetings have each been decided by three points, including Washington's 23-20 win in Week 4.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 4-point home favorites and have been bet down to -3. The total has stayed put at the opening number of 48.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR D. Jackson (probable Saturday, foot), RB M. Jones (probable Saturday, hip), DE J. Hatcher (questionable Saturday, knee), S D. Goldson (questionable Saturday, ribs), LB P. Riley (uestionable Saturday, foot), RB C. Thompson (questionable Saturday, shoulder), S J. Johnson (questionable Saturday, hamstring), T M. Moses (questionable Saturday, foot), WR A. Roberts (I-R, knee).

Philadelphia - TE Z. Ertz (probable Saturday, leg), DB E. Rowe (probable Saturday, head), QB S. Bradford (probable Saturday, shoulder), DT B. Logan (questionable Saturday, calf), CB B. Maxwell (questionable Saturday, shoulder).

WEATHER REPORT: It could be a wet night in Philadelphia. There is a 60-70 percent chance of rain with a slight 4-6 mile per hour wind, blowing across the field from east to west. Temperatures will be the low 50's.

POWER RANKINGS: Washington (-0.5) - Philadelphia (+0.5) + home field (-3) = Philadelphia -3

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Washington DL Chris Baker on their chance to clinch the division on Saturday: ?I plan on celebrating in Philadelphia. We have to take care of business.... It?s going to be a dog fight.? Meanwhile, Eagles RB DeMarco Murray barely got off the bench in Sunday Night?s ugly loss to Arizona, now ranked No. 44 in yards per rush attempt out of 46 backs with enough carries to qualify." - Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-7, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U): Kirk Cousins is in the midst of his the best stretch of his career with a passer rating above 100 in four straight games, capped by a 153.7 mark in last week's 35-25 win over Buffalo in which he threw for 319 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. DeSean Jackson tuned up for his former teammates by hauling in six catches for 153 yards and a TD against the Bills; he has torched the Eagles with nine receptions for 243 yards and a score in the past two matchups. The Redskins are vulnerable to the run, ranking 28th with an average of 129.8 yards per game allowed.

ABOUT PHILADELPHIA (6-8, 6-8 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Philadelphia was pierced for at least 40 points for the third time in five games in last week's loss and its 30th-ranked run defense surrendered a staggering 230 yards to the Cardinals. After throwing only one interception in a four-game span, quarterback Sam Bradford negated a season-high 361-yard performance by getting picked off twice and losing a fumble. The soap opera that is the Eagles' running game continued as marquee free-agent acquisition DeMarco Murray had a season-low two carries for three yards and has been limited to 91 yards over the past four games.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Philadelphia's last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games in December.
* Philadelphia is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.

CONSENSUS: Sixty percent of bettors are siding with Washington in this NFC East showdown. As for the total, the public loves the over, with 72 percent of wagers on it.

SNF - Redskins at Eagles
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Before Chip Kelly ever wrestled away full control of all personnel decisions, he struck the first blow in what’s become a near complete demolition of the Andy Reid regime by releasing star WR DeSean Jackson coming off the best season of his career.

This was back in March of 2014, when Kelly was riding high off an NFC East title in his first season as a pro head coach, a thunderous assault on destroying the myth that college coaches can’t succeed in the NFL. The Eagles had lost a painful Wild Card game to New Orleans, but the future looked bright.

As they stand on the cusp of the first losing season since the 4-12 2012 disaster that got Reid fired, patience is now wearing thin with Kelly, who has alienated the fan base by running off popular stars. It hasn’t helped that his moves as de facto GM haven’t really panned out, tops among them the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, who has been unproductive and limited to just 47 snaps the past three weeks.

On Saturday night, Washington arrives in town intent on shattering the dreams of a season that began with immense expectations. The Eagles won their first three preseason games by a margin of 125-53, setting off a flurry of future bets on them to win the Super Bowl. In fact, to protect themselves, odds of Philly winning the Super Bowl doubled from where they were at the beginning of the preseason, from 2-0/1 to 10/1. Only the Seahawks (7/1), Packers (15/2) and Colts (9/1) were viewed as more likely to win it all in February. As we close December, it’s all about to slip away.

Bookmakers have installed Philadelphia as a three-point favorite to prevent a home collapse. That it’s the Jackson-led ‘Skins looking to apply the knockout punch doesn’t lack for irony. Last season, Mark Sanchez led the Eagles into Landover as a 7-point favorite as they attempted to keep pace in the playoff chase against the team with the NFC’s second-worst record, one mired in a six-game losing streak. Washington won 27-24. A costly late Sanchez turnover allowed Kai Forbath to win the game at the gun with a field goal and the Eagles wound up eliminated as Dallas claimed the division and Arizona and Detroit took the Wild Cards.

Kelly made more changes. The Eagles lost more than ever before. A Week 4 trip to Landover produced a demoralizing 23-20 loss as the defense was powerless to keep Kirk Cousins from driving the Washington offense down the field 90 yards in 15 plays, consistently converting on must-have downs. Not only did it expose weaknesses in the secondary that have persisted all season. It also foreshadowed the growth of Cousins, who is having a career season and living up to what head coach Jay Gruden always envisioned him becoming. On that Oct. 4 afternoon, Philadelphia slipped to 1-3. They’re still two games under .500 as they enter this Week 16 must-win.

Bradford had an opportunity to rescue the Eagles from defeat, but the offensive line issues that have remained an issue prevented even the slightest threat of a comeback in the final

"You look forward to playing in these games," Bradford told the Philadelphia Daily News. "Not everyone has an opportunity to play in meaningful games in December. Obviously, I haven't had many chances to. But you try to do a little bit extra in your preparation during the week, whether it's watching more film, whether it's getting around the guys talking through things to make sure you're on the same page. Once you step on the field, you've got to keep it the same. You can't add any pressure. You can't try to do too much."

There’s already massive pressure under both Bradford and Cousins, who are both working towards earning new contracts next year in addition to trying to guide their teams into the postseason, so expect that to be the game’s deciding factor. Cousins leads the NFL in completion percentage (69.7) and has twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions (22-11), which is saying something since he entered the season with 18 TDs and 19 INTs.

He’s benefited from Jackson’s return to the lineup after a hamstring issue suffered on the opening drive of the season sidelined him until Nov. 8. Since he got back his No. 1 receiver and field-stretcher, Cousins has thrown 13 touchdowns and just three picks. It’s definitely ominous for the Eagles secondary that Jackson comes off his best game of the season. He made his longest play of the season with a 77-yard catch against Buffalo and ended up with six receptions for 153 yards. Byron Maxwell, another of Kelly’s big investments, has had a disappointing first year in Philly after excelling in Seattle and probably won’t be available to deal with a vengeful Jackson here. He suffered an AC joint sprain in Sunday night’s loss to Arizona and isn’t expected to play. It’s good news for the Eagles that talented rookie corner Eric Rowe, who was unable to prevent the game-winning score from Pierre Garcon in Week 4, has overcome a concussion scare and will play. Second-year CB Jaylen Watkins and veteran E.J. Biggers are other options likely to see time against Jackson.

“I could care less who’s covering me, man,” Jackson told reporters via conference call. “Whoever it is, good luck to them.”

Besides speedsters Jackson, Jamison Crowder and tthe steady Garcon, another worrisome threat for Washington is the sizzling Jordan Reed, currently second in the NFL in receptions at tight end. He’s scored three times in the last two games, so while the Eagles have been excellent in surrendering just three touchdowns and 59 catches against that position, they’re about to come up against an elite contributor.

For his part, Bradford has blamed bad footwork, poor mechanics and a lack of familiarity with the offensive system for the Week 4 loss despite the fact that his 270-yard, 3-TD game without a pick produced his second-highest QBR of the season. The Eagles were scoreless at halftime after a listless effort, but sport a different look with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles being featured instead of Murray and WR Jordan Matthews and TE Zach Ertz emerging as more productive.

Besides Maxwell, DL Bennie Logan is also questionable for the Eagles. Washington carries in injury concerns on both sides of the ball. Dashon Goldson, one of the better safeties in football, is questionable with rib, knee and shoulder injuries. On the offensive side of the ball, tackle Morgan Moses and center Josh LeRibeus are questionable with ankle injuries while back up RB Matt Jones (hip) and WR Ryan Grant (abdominal) may be unable to play.

Saturday’s total opened at 48½ and has dropped down to 47½ as of Saturday morning, but that number is still a couple points (45½) higher than their meeting in Week 4 that saw Washington escape with a 23-20 win at home.

Why the jump? VegasInsider.com NFL totals expert Chris David provides his best guess.

“When it comes to totals, most bettors usually lean to the high side with the Eagles due to their tempo and lack of defense,” explained David. “The ‘over’ has cashed in four of their last five games and the defense has allowed an average of 35.6 PPG during this span. Considering the game is nationally televised, I’m not surprised by the higher opener or the early money pushing it down either.”

“The Redskins weren’t known as a juggernaut in the first quarter of the season but they have put up a combined 59 points the last two weeks, which includes a 35-point effort versus the Bills last Sunday and that result is what the public remembers. While those are the facts, I strongly suggest that you tread lightly with Washington and understand that after New Orleans, the Redskins have the biggest disparity in scoring offense when it comes to home and away numbers. At home, Washington has averaged 25.8 PPG compared to 18.3 as a visitor,” added David.

Ironically, Philadelphia has scored more points on the road (23.7 PPG) than at home (21.7 PPG this season).

Since Gruden joined the Redskins, he’s gone 2-1 against Kelly and the Eagles and his team has scored 34, 27 and 23 points. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games and the lone ‘under’ took place in the aforementioned encounter in early October and that game definitely had points left off the board.

Inclement weather may also be a factor since there’s a 50 percent chance of showers being a part of this one. It’s normally freezing this time of year in Philly, but an unseasonably warm winter continues with a low of 50 degrees expected.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Redskins at Eagles (-3, 48.5)

My power ratings make Philadelphia a 5-point favorite, so there is a bit of line value at the current number of -3, and there would be even more value if this line drops below that key number to -2.5 or less.

Philadelphia is just 2-4 SU in their last six games with the last being a 40-17 blowout home loss versus Arizona. That was a national TV game, so novice bettors will remember that game and want no part of the Eagles in this game. The Eagles were 3-point favorites at Washington back in Week 4; they lost that game 23-20. But recent results have altered tonight’s pointspread which is why Philadelphia is only laying 3 points at home.

Washington played a perfect game at home last week in their 35-25 win over the Bills. That game was not even that close as the Redskins led 21-0 in the second quarter. However, that performance actually sets Washington up to regress some in this game, especially since they are now traveling on a short week and playing on the road where they’ve been a much weaker team this season. The Redskins are 6-2 SU at home, but just 1-5 SU on the road where they have been outscored by -12.2 points per game (18.3-30.5) and out-yarded 283-410 (4.9-6.1 yards per play).

I would lean towards the Eagles if this line drops to -2.5 or less.