NFL Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 16

Divisional Playoff Notes
VegasInsider.com

Kansas City at New England

Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 5½-point favorites and the number dropped to five at a few shops and as low as 4½ at others. The total opened as high as 45½ and is now sitting at 43½ and 43 everywhere as of Sunday morning.

Injuries: Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (knee) and Patriots WR Julian Edelman (foot) have both been ruled as ‘questionable’ but a lot of preliminary reports believe the Kansas City wide out could be done for the season.

Kansas City Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-1-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: Last season, the Chiefs blasted the Patriots 41-14 as 2½-point home underdogs in primetime showdown. Many pundits believed New England was done at the time but they silenced everybody by eventually winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have won and covered their last six encounters against AFC East foes. New England is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games versus AFC West opponents which includes a run of five straight victories at home.

Playoff Notes: Last Saturday’s playoff win for the Chiefs was the first for the franchise since 1994 and also the first for head coach Andy Reid in Kansas City. Bill Belichick has gone 21-8 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 14-3 SU and 8-5-1 ATS during this span while the ‘under’ is 10-7. In the last seven postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS with four of the victories come by double digits.

Total Notes: Kansas City has watched the ‘over-under’ go 8-8-1 this season and that includes a 5-3-1 mark on the road. The Chiefs have scored 45, 29, 33, 34, 34 and 30 points in their last six games away from home. New England saw the ‘over’ go 9-7 this season but the total was a stalemate (4-4) at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots averaged 29.1 PPG this season, and 31.6 PPG at home.

Green Bay at Arizona

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas sent out the Cardinals as 7½-point favorites with a total of 49½. A couple major offshores in CRIS and 5Dimes opened Arizona -7 (-120) and the line has held steady at most shops, some making you lay the juice while others are flat (-110). The total has moved up to 50 at most betting shops.

Injuries: The Packers are hoping to get DB Sam Shields (concussion) and OL David Bakhtiari (ankle) back in the lineup after missing last week’s win at Washington. They are listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday.

Green Bay Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
Arizona Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Cardinals blasted the Packers 38-8 in Week 15 but the game changed late in the first half as Green Bay was picked off in the endzone. Arizona turned that mistake into a 17-0 halftime lead and cruised in the final 30 minutes with the help from two defensive touchdowns.

Playoff Notes: Prior to last week’s win at Washington, the Packers were 2-4 in their last six playoff appearances and that included a 0-2 road record. Green Bay was in a similar role last season at Seattle and wound up collapsing late in a 28-22 overtime loss but covered the number. Arizona hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010 and coincidentally that victory came at home against Green Bay in a wild 51-45 shootout. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer will only be making his third playoff start and he’s 0-2 but he was knocked out early to a gruesome knee injury in his first appearance versus the Steelers.

Total Notes: Even though Sunday’s result vs. Washington went ‘over’ the number, the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season but five of those ‘over’ tickets have occurred on the road. Arizona leaned slightly to the high side (9-7) this season but it closed the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under.’ Arizona played in three games with totals listed in the fifties and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games. The Packers have seen the ‘under’ cash in all three games with totals listed in the fifties. Dating back to 2009, the Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games.

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Kansas City at New England

The Kansas City Chiefs thrashing Texans 30-ZIP in the Wild Card Round take an NFL-Best eleven game win streak into Gillete Stadium, where theyll take on the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. Despite the impressive streak the Chiefs have opened +5.0 point underdogs at Sports Interaction.

Enticing number, considering Chiefs covered eight times during its winning streak and that Patriots limp into this round 3-5-1 against the betting line. However, Patriots see a bevy of starters return, making them the healthiest they have been since Week 10.

Five is a lot points, but not out of reach when were talking about Bill Belichick and the 'Brady Bunch'. Since the 2009-10 campaign Patriots have cashed at a 68.7% clip as home chalk in the -5.5 or less range (11-4-1 ATS). Also, Patriots have a penchant for making backers happy following a double digit loss. The last fifteen situations has resulted in a sparkling 12-3 record against the betting line. Additionally, road underdogs such as Chiefs off a 24 or more point Wild Card victory are a money-burning 1-3 ATS in this round.

Green Bay at Arizona

Green Bay Packers one of four Wild Card road warriors this past week pulverizing RedSkins 35-18 as +2-point road underdogs have drawn the Arizona Cardinals in the divisional round. The two teams last met in a Week-16 clash at University of Phoenix Stadium, where the Cardinals were a 6-point home favorite and blew out Packers 38-8 in what was arguably Aaron Rodgers' worst career start.

If the NFL odds are any indication the betting marking isn't buying Packers extracting revenge for that embarrassing defeat. The Cardinals are currently installed a significant 7-point home favorite at Bovada/Bodog.

When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to ponder. Since the 2000-01 campaign home teams such as Cardinals laying laying -7 to -9.5 in the division round are 10-12 against the betting line. Packers are a profitable 4-1 ATS as conference road dogs, 6-1 ATS on the road off an upset win as underdogs.

Saturday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -5.5, Total: 42.5

The Chiefs will be carrying an 11-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium when they face the Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday.

Kansas City is currently riding the league’s longest winning streak and the team is certainly hot at the right time, as it is just one win away from reaching the AFC Championship. The Chiefs went into Houston last week and drubbed the Texans, winning 30-0 as three-point road favorites.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are coming off of a much-needed bye week. New England limped into the postseason, losing both SU and ATS on the road against the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17.

The Chiefs and Patriots have met just once in the past three seasons and Kansas City came out on top in that game, winning 41-14 as a three-point home underdog on Sep. 29, 2014. Yet, the Patriots are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing the Chiefs in New England since 1992.

There are a few interesting trends heading into this highly anticipated game. For Kansas City, the team is a remarkable 9-0 ATS off two or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons. The Chiefs are also 6-0 ATS against AFC East division opponents over the past three seasons. The Patriots, however, are 18-6 ATS after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992.

WR Jeremy Maclin (Ankle) is questionable for Kansas City after being injured against Houston last round. For the Patriots, WR Julian Edelman (Foot) is expected to play but DE Chandler Jones (Abdominal), LB Dont’a Hightower (Knee) and T Sebastian Vollmer (Leg) are all listed as questionable.

The Chiefs are hot coming into this game on Saturday and they will be extremely confident after the way they took care of the Texans in Houston a week ago. Kansas City didn’t allow a single point in that game and forced five turnovers as well. That type of defense can win you a Super Bowl and the Chiefs will now look to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots.

Offensively, Kansas City pounded the ball. The Chiefs rushed for 141 yards and a touchdown, and it was Spencer Ware who really made the difference. Ware was the one that found the end zone for the team and he rushed for 67 yards on 18 carries in the game. He’ll need to get it going against New England on Saturday.

QB Alex Smith, meanwhile, will just be looking to avoid mistakes in this game. He was 17-for-22 with 190 yards, one touchdown and one pick against Houston. He’ll need to be even better on Saturday, as a pick can cost his team with Tom Brady playing for the opposing offense.

One guy that will need to really play well is Travis Kelce. Kelce had eight catches for 128 yards against the Texans and will be in for an even bigger role if Jeremy Maclin is unable to go in this one. Kansas City does not have many options in the passing game and will struggle to throw if Kelce can’t make plays.

The Patriots struggled down the stretch, but this is still the team to beat until proven otherwise. Tom Brady is going to need to get his act together in this game, as he threw for just one touchdown over the final two weeks of the regular season. If New England is going to win then Brady will need to have a big game for his team.

One thing that should help him is the return of Julian Edelman, who has not played since Nov. 15. Edelman has been dealing with a foot injury, but Brady will be stoked to have his top receiver back. He had caught 61 balls for 692 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games this season and he should be able to make a huge impact in this one.

Defensively, this team is going to need to find a way to stop the run. The ground game is the Chiefs’ bread and butter, so New England can really make things difficult on Kansas City by limiting any big gains up the middle. It should not be a problem for the Patriots either, as the team allowed just 98.8 YPG on the ground this season (9th in NFL).

GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-6) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (13-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -7.0, Total: 49.5

The Packers will be looking to steal a spot in the NFC Championship when they face the Cardinals in Arizona on Saturday.

The Packers had to face the Redskins in Washington in the first round of the playoffs and Green Bay looked excellent in that one. After a shaky start to the game, the team cruised to a 35-18 victory as a two-point road underdog. The win snapped a two-game losing streak for the Packers and they’ll be hoping that their offense is here to stay after putting up a total of 346 yards against Washington.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, will be well rested after earning themselves a bye with their dominant regular season. Arizona did, however, lose 36-6 at home against the Seahawks in Week 17. The Packers and Cardinals should be very familiar with one another, as the two teams met on Dec. 27. The Cardinals dominated in that Week 16 meeting, winning 38-8 as six-point home favorites. They held the Packers to just 178 total yards and forced four turnovers as well.

One trend worth noting in this game is that the Packers are 65-40 ATS when playing against a winning team in the second half of the season since 1992.

That won’t faze the Cardinals, though, as Arizona is 17-8 ATS against conference opponents over the past two seasons.

One injury worth noting is that WR Davante Adams (Knee) is listed as questionable for the Packers. Unfortunately for Green Bay, the expectation is that he will not play.

The Packers’ offense finally woke up against the Redskins last week and Aaron Rodgers seemed to have regained some swagger in the process. Rodgers threw for 210 yards, two touchdowns and no picks in the game. He looked very confident in the second half and must now face a team that really gave him trouble in Week 16. Rodgers completed just 53.6% of his passes for 151 yards, one touchdown and one pick in that one.

He also lost two fumbles in that game and the Packers will need their offensive line to play better on Saturday, as Rodgers was under way too much pressure in that game.

Another thing that Green Bay will need to do is get the ground game going. The Packers rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns against Washington in the wild card game. Their success on the ground really opened up the offense and both Eddie Lacy and James Starks contributed. Defensively, the Packers will need to dig in and slow down one of the best passing offenses in the league.

The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball, putting up 30.6 PPG (2nd in NFL) and allowing just 19.6 PPG (t-7th in NFL). Arizona rushed for 119.8 YPG (8th in NFL) and threw for 288.5 YPG (2nd in NFL), displaying a balance offensively that few teams have.

If this team is going to keep winning games and achieve its goal of winning the Super Bowl then Carson Palmer is going to need to come up big in the postseason. Palmer was solid against the Packers in Week 16, throwing for 265 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Those touchdowns found Palmer’s two favorite targets, John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald. Both guys will need to get themselves free in this game. David Johnson may be the x-factor offensively, though.

The rookie rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on nine carries against Green Bay last meeting and will be counted on to produce in this one as well. He is powerful and could really help the Cardinals by wearing out the Packers defense.

On defense, Arizona must put pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers’ has had a lot of trouble dealing with the blitz this season and the Cardinals will need to make sure he isn’t comfortable in the pocket on Saturday.

NFL Conference Semi-Finals

Chiefs (12-5) @ Patriots (12-4) -- Chiefs won last 11 games after 1-5 start; Patriots lost four of last six games after 10-0 start. Home side won six of last seven KC-NE games; Chiefs won last meeting 41-14 LY in Arrowhead, but lost last five visits here. KC's last win in Foxboro was in 1990. Patriots won in this round last four years (3-1 vs spread) with three wins by 13+ points. Chiefs allowed 9.4 ppg in last five games, blanking Texans LW; they're 2-3 as an underdog this year- this is first time they're dog since Week 10. Four of last five Chief games stayed under total; four of last six Patriot games went over. Smith is 2-2 in playoff games in his career; Brady is 21-8 in playoffs games, 10-2 in his first playoff game of a season. Hard to say how many of Pats' late struggles were just them laying low, preparing for this.

Packers (11-6) @ Cardinals (13-3) -- 36-year old Carson Palmer is 0-2 in playoff games, with blown knee on his first pass in first one (2005); his last playoff game was '09. Cardinals had pair of defensive TDs, ripped Packers 38-8 (-4.5) here three weeks ago, outgaining Pack 381-178 in game where Cards had nine sacks and led 17-0 at the half. Aaron Rodgers is 7-5 in his playoff career (was 4-0 in '10); Green Bay is on road for 4th time in five weeks; they're 6-3 on road this season, 2-1 as an underdog. Five of last six Arizona games stayed under total; Packers are 5-1 this year when game goes over. 6-5 if it stays under total. Cardinals had won nine games in row before getting blown out by Seattle here in seasion finale; they're 3-5 as a home favorite. Favorites in this round are 14-22 vs spread the last nine years.

Armadillosports.com

Total Talk - Saturday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

The ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the opening round and all of the results were clear-cut. The lone ‘over’ winner occurred in the Green Bay-Washington matchup, which was also the highest total posted in the Wild Card round. Total bettors mixing it up with half-time wagers saw the ‘under’ go 3-1 in both the first and second halves last weekend.

Divisional Playoff History

In last year’s second round of the postseason, bettors saw the first two games go ‘over’ on Saturday while the ‘under’ connected in each game on Sunday. Including those results, the ‘under’ is 5-3 in the Divisional Playoffs the last two years but the ‘over’ was on an 11-1 run in the three previous seasons.

Kansas City at New England

Of the four game set for this weekend, this game has had the most movement. The opener was sent out at 44½ and had dropped to 42 as of Friday morning but the number was starting to push back up to 43.

Due to the key injuries for both teams and the form of the Chiefs, you can see why the ‘under’ received some early action. Kansas City is ranked in scoring defense at 16.9 points per game and when head coach Andy Reid gets a lead, he bleeds the clock like nobody else.

We shouldn’t necessarily dismiss the Chiefs’ 11-game winning streak but some pundits, including myself, question the competition. Kansas City hasn’t played a quarterback even close to Tom Brady during this run and the Chiefs haven’t played a comparable defense like the Patriots (19.7 PPG).

What does impress me about KC is its ability to score on the road. The Chiefs are averaging 29.1 PPG and that includes a 45-point effort in a neutral based game from London.

New England has looked sluggish the last two weeks of the regular season, partly due to injuries across the offensive line and in the receiving corps. The offense averaged 15 PPG and they dropped both games, which were on the road.

At home, New England averaged 31.6 PPG this season and it’s had two weeks to get ready for the Chiefs. How healthy they are is a major question mark but you can’t ignore what the Patriots have done the last four years at home in the Divisional Playoffs.

2015 – New England 35 Baltimore 31
2014 – New England 43 Indianapolis 22
2013 - New England 41 Houston 28
2012 – New England 45 Denver 10

As of Friday, New England has 12 players listed as ‘questionable’ and while most are expected to go, they’re obviously banged up. The Chiefs are the healthier of the two but the status and health of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (ankle) remains a big question mark.

If Maclin can’t go, Chiefs QB Alex Smith could go into check down mode and that’s better for the ‘under’ but make a note that the gunslinger has a 10-1 TD/INT in four playoff games and has teams have averaged 31.8 PPG.

These teams met last season and KC posted a 41-14 victory at home and the ‘over’ (45½) connected.

New England has watched the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 at home this season while the Chiefs enter this game with a 5-3-1 ‘over’ mark on the road.

Fearless Prediction: When I first saw the line on this game, I felt that the Chiefs were the play because New England is usually laying at least a touchdown at home in the playoffs. The last time it occurred was in 2010 and Baltimore won 33-14 as a four-point road underdog. Déjà vu at Foxboro? I’m buying it and for our purposes, I’m taking the Kansas City Team Total Over 19 and buying the Over 43 for the game as well.

Green Bay at Arizona

The highest total (49½) on the board this weekend takes place in the desert and it’s hard to argue against the ‘over’ in this spot. Arizona is ranked first in total offense (408 YPG), second in scoring (30.6 PPG) and it will be facing a Packers defense (20.1 PPG) that is statistically the worst unit left in the playoffs.

The Cardinals lit up the Packers 38-8 in Week 16 at home and the ‘under’ (50.5) cashed in that game. Arizona led 17-0 at halftime and the game changed late in the second quarter as Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the Cardinals end zone when the game was 10-0. In the second-half, Arizona posted a pair of back-to-back touchdowns and wound up sacking Rodgers eight times.

Rodgers followed up that loss by laying another egg at home in Week 17 versus Minnesota but he looked sharp in last week’s Wild Card win albeit against the Redskins defense, which is far from great. The Packers picked up the pace a bit last week and most believe they’ll continue to push the tempo in this spot, provided they’re executing.

Green Bay does lose WR Davante Adams to injury this week but does get the services of left tackle David Bakhtiari back and he’s a huge upgrade.

Defensively, the ‘Skins moved the ball on the Packers early but left points off the board and probably should’ve been up 16-0. Despite last week’s game going ‘over’ the number, Green Bay has seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season but five of the ‘over’ tickets have cashed on the road.

Arizona has leaned slightly to the high side (9-7) this season but the ‘under’ closed on a 5-1 run. The Cardinals have run the ball extremely well at times this season and part of me believes Bruce Arians might try to establish this on Saturday, especially with QB Carson Palmer’s lack of playoff experience.

Even if he starts off slow, hard to imagine Palmer being handcuffed for long. Arizona has advantages on offense and it scored 51 touchdowns, plus the defense and special teams added seven scores this season.

Coincidentally these teams met in the 2009-10 playoffs and Arizona held off Green Bay 51-45 in a wild shootout as the ‘over’ (49) easily cashed.

While all signs point to a shootout, make a note at the above table and check out the games with totals listed in the fifties. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 the last four games with numbers this high and I’m guessing this total closes in that neighborhood on Saturday.

Fearless Prediction: Arizona is receiving a lot of “Teaser” action this week but I’m expecting a bunch of folks to play the Packers-Over combo, especially if Arizona goes to -7 ½ at most shops. I’m tossing out what Green Bay did last week and focusing on its outcomes against quality opponents (Top 4 seeds). The Packers gave up 29, 37 and 38 to the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals respectively. With that being said, I’m buying Arizona Team Total Over 29. For those looking at the 'over' in the game, make a note that the 'under' went 31-21 in primetime games this season and that includes last week's result between the Bengals and Steelers.

Saturday's NFL Divisional Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5, 42.5)

The reigning AFC East-champion New England Patriots enjoyed a bye to begin the playoffs - and by all accounts, so did the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs. After breezing to a 30-0 victory over Houston last week, the Chiefs vie for their 12th straight win when they face the host Patriots on Saturday in a divisional-round clash.

"Typical Kansas City game - a lot of turnovers on defense, no turnovers on offense, capitalized on opponents' mistakes and didn’t make any," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said of the Chiefs' convincing victory. "They've won a lot of games pretty much doing that." Belichick has won quite a few games in his own right, and the cagey coach likely will have Julian Edelman (broken bone in foot) back in the lineup for the first time since Nov. 15. The shifty wideout helped the offense average 418.6 yards and 33.6 points during the team's 9-0 start to the season, as opposed to 317.5 and 23.1 without him (3-4).

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 5-point home favorites, were briefly bet down to -4.5 and then bet back to -5. The total was bet down from 44.5 all the way to 42. Since then it has been bet back up a half-point to its current number of 42.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs - LB T. Hali (probable Saturday, knee), LB J. Houston (probable Saturday, knee), RB S. Ware (probable Saturday, ankle), WR A. Wilson (questionable Saturday, hamstring), J. Maclin (questionable Saturday, ankle), OL L. Duvernay-Tardif (out Saturday, concussion), OL M. Morse (out Saturday, concussion).

Patriots - WR J. Edelman (probable Saturday, foot), LB J. Freeny (probable Saturday, wrist), T S. Vollmer (probable Saturday, leg), DB J. Coleman (probable Saturday, concussion), LB D. Hightower (probable Saturday, knee), DL S. Siliga (probable Saturday, personal), DE C. Jones (probable Saturday, disciplinary), QB T. Brady (probable Saturday, ankle), TE R. Gronkowski (questionable Saturday, knee), WR D. Amendola (questionable Saturday, knee), DB N. Ebner (questionable Saturday, arm).

WEATHER REPORT: It is supposed to rain early in the day in Foxborough and should tapper off as the game rolls on. Skies will clear up a little, but should still be mostly cloudy during the game. There will also be a five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting across the field.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-3) - Patriots (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -3.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Kansas City is still viewed with skepticism by most pundits. Most think the Chiefs are a phony team because of their easy schedule, but they rank high in every advanced metric I use. New England has some question marks on both sides of the ball coming into this game, but when healthy, the Patriots are the best team in the AFC by a wide margin." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (12-5, 9-8 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U): Alex Smith became one-dimensional in the passing attack last week after wideout Jeremy Maclin suffered a high-ankle sprain. Kansas City initially feared Maclin had endured the third right ACL injury of his career, but the 27-year-old's availability for Saturday's tilt remains clouded at best. When asked if Maclin could play without participating in practice, coach Andy Reid said: "He could do that. He might not have to do that, but he could do that."

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-4, 7-7-2 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Tom Brady threw for 4,770 yards this season, but the veteran quarterback may find the going tough against All-Pro safety Eric Berry, as well as cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Sean Smith. New England's 30th-ranked rushing attack averaged just 87.8 yards per game, the team's lowest since Belichick's first year as head coach in 2000. Brandon Bolden, who has risen up the ranks in lieu of injuries to LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis, is averaging just 3.3 yards on 63 carries.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Patriots are 0-4-2 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs last five games.
* Over is 4-1 in the Patriots last five home playoff games.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Chiefs in Saturday's first Divisional Round matchup with 59 percent of wagers on Kansas City. As for the total, 65 percent of wagers are on the over.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 49)

The Green Bay Packers rebounded from a late-season stumble with an impressive road victory over the Washington Redskins in the opening round of the playoffs on Sunday. The road only gets more difficult for quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who will try to avenge a 30-point beating in Week 16 when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday night.

Green Bay was bludgeoned at Arizona 38-8 before dropping a 20-13 decision at home to Minnesota in the regular-season finale to squander their chance for the NFC North title. Rodgers said the Packers had their "mojo" back after erasing an early 11-point deficit versus Washington to set up a rematch with the Cardinals. No. 2 seed Arizona reeled off nine consecutive victories before absorbing a 36-6 loss to visiting Seattle in its season finale. Behind quarterback Carson Palmer, the Cardinals feature the league's top-ranked offense and finished second in the league in scoring with an average of 30.6 points.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as 7.5-point home favorites, have been bet down to -7 and back up to -7.5. As for the total, it has been bet down 1-point from 50 to 49. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Packers - TE R. Rogers (probale Saturday, hip), RB E. Lacy (probable Saturday, ribs), T D. Bakhtiari (probable Saturday, ankle), LB J. Elliott (probable Saturday, quadricep), TE J. Perillo (questionable Saturday, hamstring), CB Q. Rollins (questionable Saturday, quadricep), CB S. Shields (Doubtful Saturday, concussion), WR D. Adams (out Saturday, knee).

Cardinals - DT F. Rucker (probable Saturday, ankle), DT J. Mauro (probable Saturday, calf), LB M. Golden (probable Saturday, knee), RB A. Ellington (questionable Saturday, toe).

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-2) - Cardinals (-6) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -7

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Arizona cruised to an easy 38-8 win over Green Bay just a few weeks ago, and it’s hard seeing this game being different this time around. The Cardinals are a bad matchup for the Packers, but Arizona is now laying 2.5-points more than they did in the first meeting, so there is less line value in this rematch." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-6, 10-7 ATS, 6-11 O/U): Rodgers rallied Green Bay by throwing a pair of second-quarter touchdown passes against Washington, including one to second-year wide receiver Davante Adams, who is not expected to play Saturday due to an MCL sprain in his knee. The Packers' ground game, which has struggled throughout the season, got going against the Redskins as Eddie Lacy and James Starks each ran for a second-half touchdown while gaining a combined 116 yards on 24 carries. Green Bay, which ranked sixth in the league against the pass, recorded six sacks in their wild-card victory.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (13-3, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Palmer set career highs in yards (4,671), TD passes (35) and quarterback rating while throwing to one of the league's top receiving corps in Larry Fitzgerald (career-high 109 catches), John Brown and Michael Floyd, which combined for 22 scoring receptions. Rookie running back David Johnson has scored a total of 13 touchdowns and had been superb since taking over as the starter while also providing a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Arizona recorded nine sacks in Week 16 against the Packers, but linebacker Alex Okafor suffered a toe injury during the bye that ended his season.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road playoff games.
* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home playoff games.
* Under is 7-1 in the Packers last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 playoff games.

CONSENSUS: The public is giving the slight edge to the Packers with 54 percent of wagers on the Cheeseheads. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the over.

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

In one of the best sports weekends of the season, the final eight survivors of the war of attrition otherwise known as the NFL season square off to deliver a pair of conference finalists.

Saturday's games feature four veteran quarterbacks who combined to throw for 122 touchdowns and just 33 interceptions this season. Tom Brady and Carson Palmer, at the helm of the Saturday's favored teams, finished one-two in TD tosses.

Chiefs at Patriots

Between their 11-game winning streak and the relatively fresh memory of the Chiefs harassing Brady into miscues in a 41-14 rout on Nov. 29 of ’14, you don’t have to look hard to find someone convinced that Kansas City is going to emerge with an upset of the Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

A road playoff game didn’t bother Andy Reid’s team in the slightest in last Saturday’s 30-0 blowout of the Texans in Houston. It probably helped to lead after the game’s very first play since Knile Davis took the opening kickoff back 106 yards for a score, allowing the Chiefs to set a dominant tone. Houston’s Brian Hoyer was erratic and ultimately turned the ball over five times, but a defense that got Justin Houston and Tamba Hali back looked fierce and will set its sights on attempting to rattle Brady.

Last week’s annihilation of the Chiefs saw the defense send four or fewer pass rushers on 84 percent of Hoyer’s dropbacks, so don’t expect to see much blitzing of Brady, who gets rid of the ball faster than most. Kansas City is hoping a secondary featuring resurgent All-Pro Eric Berry, physical veterans Husain Abdullah and Sean Smith, as well as impressive rookie Marcus Peters can continue a strong run against opposing receivers and tight ends. Opponents have scored 20 or more points only twice during Kansas City’s 11 consecutive wins.

The Patriots are going to run the football to keep Kansas City’s front seven off balance, which means 32-year-old Steven Jackson will likely be heavily involved in his first playoff appearance since 2004. He joined New England in December, participating in the last two regular-season games and splitting work with James White and Brandon Bolden.

Brady is counting on having Rob Gronkowski available despite news he visited a hospital for treatment on his right knee earlier this week. Although he’s expected to be dealing with knee and back pain while less than 100 percent, he’s going to be counted on to create matchup problems. Julian Edelman is also back, returning from a broken foot suffered in mid-November. He caught 61 passes for seven touchdowns over just nine games this season. Danny Amendola is listed as questionable with a knee injury but also expected to play. He’s caught a pass in all 14 games he’s participated in this season, so count on him emerging as a factor.

While injury-related news regarding their receiving threats appears positive, the same can’t be said about other segments. Up front, rookie guard Tre’ Jackson, who started nine of the 13 games he appeared in, has been ruled out with an undisclosed injury. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who sat out the regular-season finale against Miami, is also listed as questionable but expected to play through a leg injury that has left him noticeably hobbled.

“It’s the playoffs,” Vollmer told NESN regarding the likelihood of his return. “I don’t think anyone is 100 percent out there. (Hali) is a force out there. He has been for a long time. He’s been giving us problems, giving a lot of guys a lot of problems… I think they’re fourth in sacks this year, and it shows.”

Keeping Brady upright will be New England’s biggest key, while maintaining possession to keep their defense fresh will be Kansas City’s primary concern. Hali and Houston are both listed as questionable but are expected to play. Offensively, the Chiefs ran for 207 yards in last year’s 41-14 win but also have issues along an offensive line being counted on to open holes for young running backs Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware.

The Chiefs beat Houston without starting center Mitch Morse and won’t have him back from concussion protocol against the Patriots. They’ll also be without starting guard Laurent Duverany-Tardif due to a concussion. Smith may not have top receiver Jeremy Maclin (high ankle sprain) available, which would make it easier for New England to concentrate on taking away dangerous tight end Travis Kelce. Speedster Albert Wilson is also listed as questionable with a hamstring issue.

The Patriots list Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones as questionable, but both should play, restoring the defense to full strength. There may be light showers to deal with, so even though the total of 42.5/43 appears low, keep in mind Mother Nature may play a role. Game-time temperatures are expected to be around 40 degrees and it might be mildly windy.

Packers at Cardinals

The Packers were in Glendale on Dec. 27 and were destroyed 38-8, so they’re aware of the magnitude of this challenge. Rodgers was sacked eight times in that Week 16 Sunday night game, his team’s most lopsided loss of the season.

They went on to lose the NFC North the following week with a home setback against Minnesota, but rebounded with their strongest offensive performance in weeks last Sunday against Washington, overcoming an early 11-0 deficit in a 35-18 victory. Rodgers was aided by the re-emergence of inconsistent WR James Jones in addition to the revival of a running game that gashed the ‘Skins in helping create separation.

There were times where Randall Cobb was utilized as a traditional running back, joining Eddie Lacy and James Starks in a rotation that racked up 141 rushing yards. Green Bay went 4-for-5 in the red zone and came through on multiple short-yardage situation, so they’ll be hoping to replicate that success to keep the ball out of Palmer’s hands as much as possible.

Rodgers managed to throw for only 151 yards in the loss at Arizona and won’t have Davante Adams available. Adams, who broke out with four receptions on four targets and a touchdown last week, suffered a knee injury, left early and won’t be healthy enough to participate. Jared Abbredaris is expected to fill in, joining Jones, Cobb and tight end Richard Rodgers to form Green Bay’s receiving corps.

Up front, left tackle David Bakhtiari is expected to return from an ankle injury, but has been limited in practice and certainly won’t be at 100 percent. He didn’t play on Dec. 27, so Green Bay is hoping his return and the availability of Brian Bulaga, who left the loss with an ankle issue, will make a major difference in protecting Rodgers.

Arizona played its first game without All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu in its 30-point rout of the Packers, so it will be confident it can overcome his absence in this playoff game. Safety Rashad Johnson missed that game and will be available here, as will defensive end Josh Mauro, who is returning from a calf injury. The Cardinals defense got torched by Seattle in the regular-season finale but should be healthy and ready to go here. Meanwhile, the offense averaged 6.8 yards per play against Green Bay less than three weeks ago and is also at full strength. Palmer can spread it around to Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown, who combined for a pair of touchdown receptions the first time around. Rookie David Johnson will handle the ground game.

Oddsmakers have placed the total at 49.5 on what’s expected to be a clear night in Glendale. The under has prevailed in six of the last nine Packers games and is 5-1 in the last six involving Arizona. The Cardinals went 6-2 at home, but were just 3-5 ATS.