NFL Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 24

Championship Notes
VegasInsider.com

Patriots at Broncos

Line Movement: New England opened as a 2½-point road favorite at Westgate Las Vegas, but that number has quickly moved to -3 (-120). Sportsbook.ag is the only offshore book offering the Patriots at -3½, while the rest of the offshore books show New England at -3 with juice from -115 to -125. The total opened at 44½ and that hasn’t seen much movement, except at CRIS where it has dropped to 44.

New England Road Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS
Denver Home Record: 7-2 SU, 3-5-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: There wasn’t a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning matchup this season, but the Broncos rallied past the Patriots in overtime at home in Week 12 by a 30-24 count. Denver erased a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown run by C.J. Anderson to hand New England its first loss following a 10-0 start. The Broncos knocked off the Patriots to win the 2013 AFC Championship at home, 26-16 as five-point favorites. Brady and Manning have split four career playoff matchups with Manning’s teams winning the last two meetings in 2013 and 2006 in the conference title game.

Playoff Notes: The Patriots advanced to their fifth straight AFC Championship after holding off the Chiefs at home, 27-20 in the divisional round to cash as six-point favorites. New England has won eight of its last 11 playoff games dating back to the 2012 postseason, while covering six times in that stretch. The Patriots are the first road favorite in the AFC Championship since 2004, as New England blew out Pittsburgh as a three-point chalk, 41-27.

The Broncos didn’t play their best game in the divisional round, but found a way to stave off the Steelers, 23-16. Denver advanced to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2013, while the Broncos pushed as seven-point favorites, moving their ATS record to 0-3-1 in the divisional round with Manning at the helm. The Broncos have won four of the last six playoff games at Sports Authority Field, while being listed as an underdog in the playoffs for the first time with Manning.

Total Notes: Denver moved to 6-2-1 to the ‘under’ at home this season after the Pittsburgh victory. Since cashing the ‘over’ in the second round double-overtime loss to Baltimore in 2012, the Broncos have finished ‘under’ the total in each of the last four home playoff games. The Patriots eclipsed the ‘over’ in five of eight road contests this season, while going ‘over’ the total in six of the last eight playoff games since 2013.

Cardinals at Panthers

Line Movement: Carolina opened up as a three-point home favorite at most sportsbooks, while the total came out at 48 ½ at the Westgate Las Vegas. The total dropped to 47½ at the Westgate, while offshore book 5Dimes has listed the total at 47.

Arizona Road Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
Carolina Home Record: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: These two teams didn’t face off in 2015, as the Panthers eliminated the Cardinals in the 2014 Wild Card round, 27-16 as 5½-point favorites. Carson Palmer didn’t face Carolina as he sat out with a torn ACL, as Arizona’s offense was limited to 78 yards behind backup Ryan Lindley. The Panthers own a 1-2 SU/ATS record against Arizona in Cam Newton’s career, as the Carolina quarterback threw for 422 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut against the Cardinals in 2011.

Playoff Notes: The Cardinals outlasted the Packers in overtime, 26-20 to advance to their first NFC Championship since 2008. Arizona won the NFC title that season over Philadelphia, 32-25 as 3½-point home underdogs. The Panthers jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead over the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks in the divisional round before holding off Seattle, 31-24. Carolina evened its mark at 2-2 in the playoffs with Cam Newton at quarterback since 2013, as both victories came at Bank of America Stadium.

Total Notes: The Panthers have hit the ‘over’ in 11 of 17 games, while going 6-2-1 to the ‘over’ at home. The Cardinals cashed the ‘under’ in six of the final seven contests, but finished ‘over’ the total in five of eight games away from University of Phoenix Stadium. Last year’s Wild Card game between these teams went ‘over’ the total of 37½, while Carolina has hit the ‘over’ in three straight playoff games.

Championship Angles
By Jim Feist
VegasInsider.com

This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl. The last month we've been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.

However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge, but that's not usually the case this deep into the season.

A year ago the favorites split, with New England crushing the Colts, 45-7, but Seattle failed to cover as -8.5 chalk against Green Bay, 28-22. The Packers were never in doubt of covering, either, leading 19-3 late before a shocking Seahawks comeback win in overtime.

Three years ago the underdogs went 1-0-1 ATS in the title games, with the 49ers winning 28-24 at Atlanta as 4-point chalk and the Ravens beating the Patriots on the road, 28-13.

Four years ago both underdogs covered in squeakers, with the underdog Giants beating the 49ers in OT (20-17) and the 7-point underdog Ravens nearly winning at New England, blowing a late field goal in a 23-20 defeat.

The last seven years, 10 of 14 home teams won but went only 7-6-1 ATS.

Notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 26 of 46 NFL title games straight up and the visiting team is 24-21-1 against the spread. Going 27-18-1 straight up is an edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.

Within those statistics remember that there have been plenty of road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl, including the Ravens and Giants the recently, both going on to win the Super Bowl.

The Packers last January were one botched onside-kick away from advancing as a road dog.

In 2008 both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20.

In 2007 Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.

Coming into this weekend, the dogs are 18-11-1 against the spread the last 15 years in the NFL title games.

The NFC has seen the dog go 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years, including five of the last six seasons with the Giants, the Packers twice and the Cardinals were home 'dogs to the Eagles. Philadelphia's trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt.

Certainly you can't discount home field advantage. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.

It's difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake -- the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.

Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 29-14-1 SU in NFL championship games but 22-21-1 ATS the last 22 years. The total is 24-19-1 "over" during that time. Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite.

The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as two-point home underdogs. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road 'dog, and three years ago the underdog Ravens won by 15.

Several big favorites have struggled, as well.

Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution.

The Current Trend: The favorites are on a very mild 9-6-1- ATS run in Conference Championship games.

Conference Championship Preview
Sportspic.com

We're down to the 'Final Four' in the NFL's Super Bowl Tournament. Denver Broncos and the defending Champion New England Patriots highlight Sunday's early game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High (03:05 EST). Broncos advanced with a 23-16 win vs. Steelers pushing as -7.0 point chalk and enter the contest 13-4 (8-8-1 ATS) on the campaign behind 22.2 points/game while its stingy defense allowed 18.4 per/game. Here at Mile High, the Broncos are 7-2 (3-5-1 ATS) with the 'Under' dominating at 6-2-1. Patriots earned their spot by snapping Chiefs eleven game win streak with a 27-20 victory cashing as -6.0 point favorite. Patriots carry a 13-4 (8-7-2 ATS) record to the AFC Championship on 28.9 points/game and sneaky defense holding opponents to just 19.7 per/contest. Away from Gillette Stadium, the Patriots were 5-3 (3-5 ATS) keeping 'Over' gamblers happy with a 5-3 O/U mark. MYBOOKIE.AG currently has Patriots -3.5 point chalk with the total set at 45.

In the late one at Bank of America Stadium (06:40 EST) the Carolina Panthers toppling Seahawks 31-24 as -2.5 point chalk square off against Arizona Cardinals who advanced with a 26-20 OT victory over Packers but failed at the betting window as 7.0 point chalk. Panthers are 16-1 (12-5 ATS) overall racking up a whopping 31.2 points/game. On defense, Panthers rank in the top tier at 19.6 PPG. Panthers have an umblemished record at home this season posting a 9-0 (7-2 ATS) mark and have won twelve consecutive at Bank of America Stadium dating back to last year (8-4 ATS). As for Cardinals, they're 14-3 (9-8 ATS) overall behind 30.3 points/game with a defense allowing 19.6 per/contest. This season in hostile territory the Cardinals were a sparkling 7-1 (6-2 ATS) with a 14.0 PPG winning margin. Sports Interaction has Panthers -3.0 point favorite with the total set at 48.

When handicapping these 'Put-Up' or 'Go-Home' games there are a couple of interesting betting trends that you should be aware of. Over the past 15 years home teams in the Championship round are 14-16 ATS with 18 'Over', 10 'Under' and 2 Push. Splitting numbers by conference, NFC home teams are 6-9 ATS, 9-4-2 O/U, the AFC troops 8-7 ATS, 9-6 O/U.

Conference Championship Home favorites off a 7 point or less win in the Divisional round are 5-2 ATS (Panthers). Conference Championship Home Underdogs off a 7 point or less win in the Divisional round are 0-2 (Broncos). Conference Championship Road Favorites off a 7 point or less win are 3-2 ATS (Patriots), Conference Championship Road Underdogs off a 7 or less point win are 6-7 ATS (Cardinals).

Our trusted database also chips in these betting nuggets:

- Patriots 2-5 ATS as road faves this season
- Patriots 1-5 ATS skid in Conf Champ Games
- Patriots w/Brady 8-6-2 ATS all time vs Manning
- Patriots w/Brady 2-2 ATS playoffs vs Manning Incl 1-2 ATS Conf Champ
- Belichick/Brady 14-15-1 ATS all-time playoff
- Patriots on a 7-3 ATS stretch revenging a loss
- Patriots 5-0 ATS after playing Chiefs

- Broncos 4-0 ATS as Dogs this season
- Broncos 3-6 L9 vs Patriots
- Broncos 3-1 ATS L4 home vs Patriots
- Broncos 3-5-1 ATS home in post season
- Broncos 0-7 ATS after playing Steelers

- Panthers 10-5 ATS as chalk this year
- Panthers 2-0 ATS home vs Cardinals Incl WC LY
- Panthers 1-4 ATS after playing Seahawks

- Cardinals 1-3 ATS L4 post season road games
- Cardinals 1-6 ATS vs. a team with winning record
- Cardinals 1-3 ATS as road dogs after playing Packers

Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Divisional Playoffs Recap

Total bettors saw the results split last week as the ‘over/under’ went 2-2 and it could’ve been 3-1 to the ‘under’ if the Chiefs didn’t score a late touchdown against the Patriots. Through two weeks of the playoffs, the ‘under’ stands at 5-3 through eight games.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 the last five years in the championship games and that includes the lucky ‘over’ ticket in last year’s NFC title game between the Seahawks and Packers.

New England will be playing in its fifth straight AFC championship and the ‘under’ has cashed in the last four but this is the lowest total the team has seen during this stretch.

New England at Denver

This total opened at 44½ and the number has held steady all week. These teams met in Week 12 and the Broncos rallied for a 30-24 overtime victory at home over the Patriots and the ‘over’ 43 connected with a late surge, 33 of those points coming in the fourth quarter and extra session.

I wouldn’t suggest you toss this result out completely but the game was affected by key injuries. The Patriots didn’t have wide receivers Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola available, plus tight end Rob Gronkowski was knocked out in the fourth quarter with a knee injury. Denver didn’t have linebacker DeMarcus Ware suited up and they lost a pair of starters T.J. Ward and Sylvester Williams in the first half to injuries.

Brock Osweiler started for Denver in the win but he’s now in the backup role again behind Peyton Manning, who has been anything but sensational this season. In six games at home this season with Peyton under center, Denver has averaged 22.3 points per game and that includes last week’s 23-16 win over Pittsburgh. The stat mentioned often this week that’s eye opening is that Manning has only tossed one touchdown pass at home this season.

The result against the Steelers last Sunday went ‘under’ and that’s been the theme at Sports Authority Field this season. The low side has gone 6-2-1 in nine games at Denver, which has been helped by a defense that has only surrendered 18.2 PPG at home this season.

New England’s defense (19.7 PPG) has a very sound unit, but make a note that Denver racked up 433 total yards (179 rushing) in this year’s victory with Osweiler.

Offensively, New England is ranked third in scoring (28.9 PPG) but it’s a one-dimensional attack. In last week’s win against Kansas City, the Patriots scored 27 points but only ran the ball 14 times in the victory.

Tom Brady receives the all attention in New England, deservingly, but the Edelman factor continues to get notice. He had 10 receptions last week for 100 yards and in the 10 games that he’s played this season, the Pats have averaged 33 PPG and the ‘over’ is 6-4 in those games.

This will be the 17th meeting between Brady and Manning and Tom owns an 11-5 record in the head-to-head encounters. The ‘over’ has gone 10-6 during this span. However, the Patriots have gone 2-6 in their eight visits to Denver with Tom Brady at QB and the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 in those games. On a comical note, the two signal callers that Brady beat are a pair of former college stars from Florida (Tim Tebow, Danny Kanell) that are now pundits on ESPN.

In the lone game versus Peyton at Denver, Brady and the Pats were bested 26-16 in the 2014 AFC Championship. The total on that game closed at 56½, which tells you how far Peyton has dropped off and how improved the Broncos defense is.

Fearless Prediction: This is a real tough total to handicap and your decision will likely come down to which side you like. If you believe Denver can run the football and control the clock, then you’re likely leaning ‘under’ in this game. And if you’re backing New England, you’re probably leaning to the high side and you should. In the Patriots last seven postseason wins, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 while averaging 34.5 PPG. In New England previous three playoff losses, they’ve scored 16, 13 and 17 points – all ‘under’ tickets. With all that being said, I’m going to lean Denver Team Total Under 20 this Sunday.

Arizona at Carolina

A high-scoring game is expected in this week’s NFC Championship and the ‘over’ has caught some early attention. Most books opened 47, 47½ and the number has reached 48 and 48½ at a few betting shops as of Friday morning. You could make the argument that his total should be in the fifties, considering the Panthers (31.2 PPG) and Cardinals (30.3 PPG) enter this game as the two best scoring attacks in the league.

The pair met in last year’s playoffs and Carolina earned a 27-16 win over Arizona but this result could be tossed out since Ryan Lindley was the starting quarterback for the Cardinals. The ‘over’ (37½) cashed and it’s amazing it did considering Arizona gained 78 total offensive yards but still managed to score 16 points. What should be noted is that QB Cam Newton (198 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Jonathan Stewart (123 yards, 1 TD) both had a great efforts against an Arizona defensive unit that was probably better than this year’s unit.

Carolina averaged 32.8 PPG at home this season and just dropped 31 points in the first-half on Seattle last Sunday. The Panthers racked up 144 rushing yards against the Seahawks and could have more success this Sunday, knowing that Green Bay outgained Arizona 135-40 on the ground in last Saturday’s Divisional Playoff matchup.

The Cardinals couldn’t run (40 yards) the ball last week against the Packers and QB Carson Palmer looked very nervous, getting picked off twice deep in Green Bay territory and he should’ve had three interceptions. Now he faces a Carolina defense that is much better in the middle and on the outside than the Packers.

Arizona watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 in eight road games, but the Cardinals enter this game on a 6-1 run to the ‘under’ and that includes last week’s ticket to the low side versus the Packers. Playing in the Eastern Time Zone hasn’t been an issue for Arizona this season and the late start could actually help them. The Cardinals went 3-1 in four games on the East Coast, while averaging 32.3 PPG. The one loss came at Pittsburgh (25-13) as Arizona turned the ball over three times, two of the mistakes coming from Palmer.

Carolina has been a great ‘over’ bet this season, going 11-5-1 this season and that includes a 6-2-1 ‘over’ mark at Bank of America Stadium.

The field at this venue has been criticized recently and labeled as “soft” and it could be softer on Sunday with rain and possibly snow expected for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures for kickoff are expected to be in the forties with clear skies.

Fearless Prediction: Of the two title games the last 10 years, we’ve seen more ‘over’ tickets in the NFC and we’ve also seen more competitive games. I believe both clubs are going to score in the twenties in this spot and as long as you don’t see a barrage of field goals, this game should go to the high side. I’m leaning Arizona Team Total Over 23½ and Carolina Team Total Over 26½. Since I believe both those will connect, I’d lean to the game Over 48 as well and expect the winner to get at least 30 points.

Vegas Money Moves - Final 4
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

When the AFC and NFC Championship Game lines were both posted with 3's in Las Vegas on Sunday, one game looked out of whack with a road favorite while the other looked solid. Many observers thought it would the Panthers side that would attract the most action, but that hasn't been the case.

"It's been a dead game for us," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne who has kept Carolina -3 all week.

Osborne said public parlay money has favored Carolina as expected, but the game he's been keeping his eye on the most is the Patriots -3 at Denver.

"I thought the game that we'd be moving first would be the Panthers, but the way the action is going so far I may have to go to -3.5 with the Patriots."

The number '3' is the most key number in the NFL, so it'll take some heavy one-sided action to move off the number, but Osborne can see it happening. "Right now, I'm about a 25 percent towards our threshold at the number before moving to 3.5."

Osborne says he takes about four times the limit at -3 than he does for regular numbers before moving off it. His chain of sports books are the only ones in the city that use flat numbers exclusively.

On Friday, the South Point was the only sports book in town with the Patriots at 3-flat. Those that like the Patriots know where to go so it might not be too long before Osborne hits his threshold forcing a number change.

Books like the Westgate, Stations, Wynn, William Hill, Aliante and Golden Nugget have the Patriots -3 -120. Coast Resorts is using -3.5 +105 while MGM Resorts is at -3.5 +110.

"We were at -3.5 +105, but a professional bettor came in today and laid -120 taking +3.5 with Denver," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback.

Seeing a wise guy lay extra juice to take +3.5 with the Broncos is very telling, but Stoneback says they welcomed the action because of being so lopsided with New England money.

"Before we went to -3.5 -105 on Thursday we had a 3-to-1 cash ratio laying -3 -120 with the Patriots and a 5-to-1 ticket count differential."

Public parlays have also been all Patriots.

"We don't have hardly anything with Denver," Stoneback said. "It's about a 10-to-1 ratio on cash taken in with the Patriots. They (public) like what they've saw out of them last week against the Chiefs."

The only Denver action the MGM books have been getting is on teasers taking +9.5.

Just like the South Point, the Cardinals-Panthers game has been slow moving at the 10 MGM books across the strip.

"We're evenly balanced on straight bets and have a 7-to-5 edge on parlays with the Panthers. We've taken in twice as much action on the Patriots-Broncos game," said Stoneback.

MGM books have a rooting interest in the Panthers to advance because of their great position on Super Bowl futures. Next best for them would be the Patriots to win it all.

Caesars teasers taken down

On Monday we mentioned that a few books were reviewing their position on teasers because of a 15-1 all-way teaser win for bettors during the divisional round that crushed the books. Caesars Entertainment's chain of books -- Harrah's -- got so rattled with last weeks losses that they didn't even wait for the season end to make changes -- they cut teaser wagering off immediately in a knee-jerk reaction.

If I had to pick one chain of books that would pull a move like this mid-stream, the Harrah's brand would certainly be it. For goodness sake, wait for the season to end. Do some analytics on what the proper prices should be in the playoffs and regular season and then implement the changes next season.

Funny thing is, both games are 3's and it's not an attractive position for teaser bettors that like the favorites like last week was with a couple of 7's. So not only did Harrah's shoot themselves in the foot from a public relations standpoint, but they bailed on a week that sets up more favorably for the books. Well done!

NFL Conference Finals

Patriots (13-4) @ Broncos (13-4) -- Denver (+2.5) upset Patriots 30-24 in OT in Week 11, handing NE its first loss of year. Broncos ran ball for 179 yards; two of Patriots' three TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Home side won 10 of last 12 series games, including all three playoff games. Patriots lost three of last four road games. four of last five visits here, but are 6-3 in AFC title games with Brady at QB, 2-2 on road, with both wins in Pittsburgh. In last ten years, home dogs are 1-2-1 vs spread in conference title games; home side is 8-1 in last nine AFC title games. Denver is only NFL team to win game this year wthout scoring an offensive TD-- they did it twice- 10 of their 13 wins are by 7 or less points. New England is 3-4 in its last seven games; if they stop run game, can Manning beat them thru air? There is 50-70% chance of rain/snow showers during game.

Cardinals (14-3) @ Panthers (16-1) -- Arizona lost 27-16 here in playoffs LY, but 3rd-string QB Lindley played for Redbirds- they had no chance. Cardinals are 5-9 vs Carolina, 1-4 last five visits here, with only win in '08 playoffs. Arizona won 10 of last 11 games, with only loss in (mostly) meaningless season finale with Seattle- they won last five road tilts, scoring 31.8 ppg. Underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven NFC title games; road team is 4-4 SU in last eight. Over last six years, underdogs are 3-1-1 vs spread in conference title games that have #1-2 seeds playing. Carolina is 9-0 at home this year; they scored 31+ points in seven of last eight games; they're 12-0 on grass, but how much did sleet/rain in Carolinas disrupt the Panthers' preparation for this? Weather forecast for Sunday night is cold but dry, with two warm weather teams playing.

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (12-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3, Total: 44

Peyton Manning and the Broncos host Tom Brady and the Patriots in what could be the final postseason matchup between the two legendary quarterbacks on Sunday.

The Patriots hosted the red-hot Chiefs in the Divisional Round and came away with a 27-20 victory as six-point home favorites. New England had lost its final two regular season games before playing that game, but the team put any concerns to bed with the win over Kansas City.

The Broncos, meanwhile, hosted the Steelers on Sunday and came away with a 23-16 win as seven-point home favorites. Denver has won three straight games and has allowed just 20 or less points in five of its past six. The team is playing stifling defense and actually was able to win against Pittsburgh thanks to a forced fumble in the fourth quarter.

The Patriots and Broncos have already met once this season and the Broncos won that game 30-24 as 2.5-point road underdogs.

The teams have, however, split victories both SU and ATS over the past three seasons. Favoring the Patriots in this game is the fact that Tom Brady is 11-5 SU in his 16 meetings with Peyton Manning in his career. New England is also 9-2 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the past two seasons.

LB Jerod Mayo (Shoulder) is the newest Patriots player to be lost for the season. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be entering this one at relatively close to full strength.

The Patriots have pretty much abandoned the run at this point in the season and it’s now going to be Tom Brady that will need to win this game for New England. Brady was brilliant against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, going 28-for-42 with 302 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. He also added a rushing touchdown for the Patriots as well.

One big bonus for New England’s quarterback was that Julian Edelman returned from injury. Edelman looked as good as new in the win, catching 10 passes for 100 yards. His ability to make plays allowed Rob Gronkowski to run his routes with a little less attention than he usually gets and it really helped. Gronkowski caught seven passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City.

Him and Edelman will now need to get open often against a very good Denver defense in order to win on Sunday. Brady should have little trouble throwing it, though. He had 280 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions the last time he faced this defense and that was in the snow.

One thing that will need to happen for the Patriots is that the defense must find a way to stop the run. The Broncos rushed for 179 yards and three touchdowns the last time these teams met and that can’t happen again. Denver struggles to pass the ball and the Patriots could really give themselves a good chance of winning by slowing down the running game.

The Broncos defeated the Steelers in the Divisional Round, but it was a rather uninspiring win for the team. Offensively, Denver is going to need to be a lot better in order to defeat this high-powered Patriots team. The guy that will really need to improve is Peyton Manning. Manning struggled against Pittsburgh, going 21-for-37 with 222 yard, no touchdowns and no interceptions.

Denver will need him to throw for at least a touchdown or two on Sunday. The Broncos are also going to need a big game from their running back duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. The two combined for 108 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, but they also lit up the Patriots earlier in the season.

In that victory for the Broncos, Anderson and Hillman combined for 172 yards and three touchdowns. If they can find similar success against New England on Sunday then the Denver defense should be able to put the team in a position to win.

The Broncos are allowing just 18.5 PPG (4th in NFL) and have been extremely dominant as of late. They’ll need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady on Sunday, though, and that is no easy task for anybody.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (14-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (16-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -3, Total: 48

The Cardinals and Panthers will be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl when the teams meet in Carolina on Sunday.

The Cardinals are coming off of a wild win over the Packers in the Divisional Round and will now be looking to ride the momentum of that victory into their meeting with the Panthers. Arizona allowed a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis in the closing seconds of regulation last game and ended up winning on a shovel pass from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald in the early stages of overtime.

The Panthers, meanwhile, did not have much of a challenge in their Divisional Round win over the Seahawks. Carolina jumped out to a 31-0 lead and ended up winning 31-24, as the team took its foot off the gas in the second half of the game. The Panthers will now need to regain their focus for their meeting with Arizona on Sunday.

The last time these teams met actually happened to be in the postseason and the Panthers won that game 27-16 as 5.5-point favorites. Carson Palmer was, however, injured and the Cardinals played that game with Ryan Lindley under center.

One thing that is heavily favoring Arizona in this game is that the team is 30-11 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.>75%) since 1992. The Panthers are, however, an insane 7-0 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 this season.

Arizona did not suffer any additional injuries against Green Bay, but the Panthers are likely to be without DE Jared Allen (Foot) in this game.

If the Cardinals are going to defeat the Panthers on Sunday then Carson Palmer is going to need to have an unbelievable game for Arizona.

Palmer threw for 349 yards with three touchdowns in the win over the Packers in the Divisional Round, but he also threw three picks in that game. He’ll need to take better care of the football, especially with Josh Norman playing corner for Carolina.

Something Palmer should do in this one is get rid of the ball quickly and find Larry Fitzgerald often. Fitzgerald was straight up dominant against the Packers last game, hauling in eight catches for 176 yards and a touchdown. He has now caught a touchdown in each of the past three games for Arizona.

Another guy that will need to play well for this team is David Johnson. Johnson rushed 15 times for 35 yards against Green Bay and also added six catches for 43 yards. He will need to be more effective between the tackles or it will be tough for the Cardinals to get things going in the passing game. Arizona uses the play action often and Johnson must put some fear into the Panthers defense in this one.

Defensively, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them with Cam Newton in town. They should be up for the challenge, though, as they allowed just 19.6 PPG (t-7th in NFL) this season.

The Panthers have consistently beaten up on their opponents this season, but things are going to get tough against a very good Cardinals team on Sunday. Carolina will need to play a complete game in this one, and that means it can’t let up at any point in the game. The team has shown that it can have lapses of poor play and last week’s second half against Seattle was a mess for the Panthers.

As always, this Carolina team is only going to go as far as Cam Newton takes it. Newton was 16-for-22 with 161 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the Seahawks last week. He’ll need to do a bit more in this one, but it would really help his team if he can continue to play mistake-free football.

The reason that Newton was able to take a backseat against Seattle was that Jonathan Stewart was running wild in the game. In his return from injury, Stewart rushed 19 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks. He showed serious explosiveness on one 59-yard run and it would be huge if he can get it going against Arizona.

Greg Olsen, who had six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, will also need to show up for the Panthers in this game.

Defensively, the Panthers will need to shut down the Cardinals’ passing game in this one. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue, as Carolina allowed just 21 touchdowns this season (t-7th in NFL).

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Arizona at Carolina

From a quality standpoint, Sunday's NFC Championship bout between the Carolina Panthers (16-1 SU, 12-5 ATS) and the Arizona Cardinals (14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS) could be the best game of the entire season. The Panthers are 3.5-point home favorites at Bovada.lv with a total of 48.

Carolina earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC after nearly running the table during the regular season. The Panthers are coming off a strong 31-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks in last week's Divisional Round matchup; however, defensive end Jared Allen suffered a broken foot and is considered doubtful for Sunday after skipping Wednesday's practice.

The No. 2 Cardinals are relatively healthy, and they'll have the benefit of an extra day of rest after beating the Green Bay Packers 26-20 in overtime on Saturday. Arizona should have some betting value playing against likely MVP winner Cam Newton. The advanced stats suggest that Carson Palmer is the more deserving candidate, but can Palmer adjust to playing outdoors in January? Sunday's weather forecast calls for clear skies over Bank of America Stadium, with temperatures in the low 40s at kick-off.

Patriots at Broncos
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The narrative surrounding Sunday’s AFC Championship between the Patriots and Broncos involves the 17th lifetime meeting between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. New England is seeking its seventh Super Bowl appearance in the Brady/Bill Belichick regime since 2001, while going for a league record ninth Super Bowl trip. However, the Patriots need to clear the hurdle of winning at Sports Authority Field where they haven’t had much success over the years.

New England has lost five of its last six visits to Denver since 2005, including a 30-24 overtime setback in Week 12. The Broncos handed the Patriots their first loss following a 10-0 start, as Gary Kubiak’s team erased a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown run by C.J. Anderson less than three minutes into overtime. Manning didn’t suit up for that victory, as backup quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for 270 yards and a touchdown with substandard weather to deal with (snow flurries). In spite of Brady’s poor record in Denver, the four-time Super Bowl champion racked up 280 yards and three touchdown passes in the defeat.

The Patriots closed the regular season with losses in four of their final six games, but put things together in last Saturday’s 27-20 divisional round victory over the Chiefs. New England cashed as six-point favorites thanks to jumping out to 21-6 third quarter lead. The Pats relied on Brady and the air attack, attempting 42 passes and racking up 302 yards through the air. New England attempted only 14 rushes, compared to 32 carries by Kansas City, as the only touchdown on the ground by the Pats came on a Brady quarterback sneak.

The Broncos didn’t have it as easy against the banged-up Steelers last Sunday, needing a late Anderson touchdown plunge to give Denver a 20-13 advantage with three minutes remaining in regulation. Each team exchanged field goals late as the Broncos held on for a 23-16 win, as Denver pushed as seven-point favorites. Denver kicked five field goals, as Manning’s last touchdown pass came at Indianapolis back in Week 10. Anderson has been the key to this Broncos’ offense lately by averaging 80 yards the last three games on the ground, while reaching the end zone in each of those victories.

New England is playing in its fifth straight AFC Championship, winning three times at Gillette Stadium in this span with the lone loss coming at Denver in 2013. The Patriots have lost their last two AFC title games on the highway, while being the first road favorite in the AFC Championship since routing Pittsburgh in 2004 as three-point chalk, 41-27. The Broncos are listed as an underdog in the playoffs for the first time with Manning at quarterback, while Denver won and covered in both home ‘dog opportunities this season against Green Bay and New England.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says to keep an eye on the defenses in this matchup, “Denver ranked #1 in the NFL in total defense while New England finished 9th and both teams also had top 10 scoring defenses on the season. The Patriots wound up with pretty similar numbers to last season’s championship team, actually slightly better than the 2014 team in total defense and significantly better against the run. Denver had a historically great defense this season sitting at the top of the league in many areas and Manning has to feel good about his chances considering he went to the Super Bowl two seasons ago with a defense that allowed 70 more yards per game and nearly a touchdown more per game compared with this season’s team.”

Nelson believes this will be a close game simply because of Denver’s track record, “The big difference is Manning was an All-Pro quarterback that season while this season he threw nine touchdowns against 17 interceptions. Last week’s game was the first that Manning started all season in which he didn’t throw an interception. Denver played almost exclusively close games this season winding up as the AFC’s top seed at 12-4 despite a very modest +59 point differential now having won 10 games by a single-score but also only losing one game by more than one score.”

NFL expert Vince Akins breaks down a system that supports the road team on Sunday, “When looking at playoff systems, we find that pass defense is one of the most relevant statistics when looking at playoff against the spread success, with both season-long and recent pass defense success important. You don’t want to back a pass defense that is struggling coming into the game. Teams in the playoffs that allowed at least 250 passing yards last game and are facing an opponent that did not allow 250+ passing yards last game are 27-43-3 ATS in the playoffs since 2001.”

Breaking down this system further, Akins says that Denver’s terrific defense is vulnerable against the pass, “In the AFC Championship game this week, it is the Denver defense that comes in struggling against the pass. The Broncos pass defense has been slipping for the past month, and last week gave up 311 passing yards to a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger missing his top weapon. New England allowed just 243 passing yards to a Chiefs team that was trailing the entire game last week. The Broncos pass defense is going to be put to the test this week, as teams usually are during the playoffs, and they may not be up to the task.”

Each of the last four AFC Championship games have finished ‘under’ the total (all involving the Patriots), as the losing team has not scored more than 20 points in this span. Favorites have posted a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record in the last seven AFC title contests with the only underdog to win outright in this span being the 2012 Ravens, who upset the Patriots as eight-point ‘dogs, 28-13.

From a totals perspective, the Broncos have cashed the ‘under’ in six of nine games at Sports Authority Field this season, including in last week’s comeback win over the Steelers. The Patriots have sailed ‘over’ the total in five of eight road contests, while hitting the ‘over’ in four consecutive playoff games.

The Patriots opened as a three-point road favorite when this matchup was announced last Sunday, but has inched up to -3½ at several books. New England has settled back to -3 at many outlets, while the total is listed at 44½ at a majority of books. The game kicks off at 3:00 p.m. EST from Denver and can be seen nationally on CBS.

Cardinals at Panthers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The NFC Championship pits the top two seeds for the fourth time in the last seven seasons as Arizona travels cross-country to face Carolina. The Panthers came within two victories of finishing the regular season with a perfect 16-0 record, but lost in Week 16 at Atlanta. Carolina concluded the season with a franchise-best 15-1 mark, while wrapping up its third consecutive NFC South title.

Arizona closed out its best season since moving to the desert in 1988 by compiling a 13-3 record and its third NFC West championship since 2008. The Cardinals outlasted the Packers, 26-20 in an exciting divisional playoff showdown capped off by a Larry Fitzgerald touchdown in overtime. Arizona allowed a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to force overtime, but it took the Cardinals just three plays to get into the end zone and advance to its second NFC Championship game. Bruce Arians’ club failed to cash as seven-point favorites, dropping its home ATS record to 1-6 in the final seven games at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The Panthers have yet to lose at Bank of America Stadium this season, posting a perfect 9-0 record after holding off the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks, 31-24. Carolina managed to cash at home for the seventh time this season, covering as 2½-point favorites even though the ‘Cats were outscored, 24-0 in the second half. Ron Rivera’s squad jumped out to a commanding 31-0 halftime edge, highlighted by linebacker Luke Kuechly returning an interception for a touchdown in the first quarter.

The Cardinals and Panthers meet in the playoffs for the second straight season as Carolina eliminated Arizona in the Wild Card round, 27-16. Arizona didn’t have the services of starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who tore knee ligaments midway through the 2014 campaign. The Cardinals settled on Ryan Lindley under center, who was limited to 82 yards passing and threw a pair of interceptions. Carolina’s defense limited Arizona to 78 total yards, the fewest yards ever compiled in a playoff game. Cam Newton tossed two touchdowns to help the Panthers pick up the cover as 5½-point home favorites.

The home team has won the last four meetings in this series since 2010, as Newton’s NFL debut came at Arizona in 2012. The Heisman Trophy winner racked up 422 yards passing in his first professional game, including a pair of touchdown passes to Steve Smith, Sr. However, the Panthers fell short in a 28-21 loss as Cardinals’ cornerback Patrick Peterson broke a 21-21 tie with an 89-yard punt return for a score in the fourth quarter. Arizona last won at Bank of America Stadium as a 10-point underdog in the divisional round of the 2008 playoffs, 33-10 en route to their first Super Bowl appearance.

Arizona dominated on the highway this season by compiling a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS record away from University of Phoenix Stadium. The lone loss occurred in Week 6 at Pittsburgh, a 25-13 defeat as 5 ½-point favorites as the Cardinals scored just three points in the second half. Arizona was listed as a road underdog only once this season, but came out with a 39-32 victory at Seattle as three-point ‘dogs in Week 10. Since November 2013, the Cardinals have won 12 of 14 road games started by Palmer, while covering in all four opportunities as an underdog.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson believes turnovers will be the key to this matchup, “These squads were the clear top teams in the NFC all season and the big common element has been creating turnovers with Carolina #1 in the NFL with 39 takeaways and Arizona #2 with 33. While both teams had strong positive turnover margins on the year, the offenses were not immune to big mistakes as Arizona had 24 giveaways and Carolina had 19 and ultimately the turnover column might be the key factor in deciding this game.”

Is the 15-1 record for the Panthers a blessing or a curse? Nelson says there hasn’t been many strong finishes recently with teams that owned 15 wins or more, “The Panthers are a game away from the Super Bowl and for being just the seventh team to ever go 15-1 (or 16-0) in the regular season, the Panthers aren’t getting a great deal of attention. While the 1984 49ers and 1985 Bears both won the Super Bowl after going 15-1, the past four teams to get there have faltered in the playoffs with the 16-0 2007 Patriots being the only other team to even make the Super Bowl.”

Arizona topped the 27-point mark on the road six times this season, as Carolina’s defense didn’t have a strong finish against Seattle. Nelson says defensively there are concerns heading into Sunday, “This was the top scoring team in the NFL with over 31 points per game on the season and while the defensive numbers are strong, the second half performance against the Seahawks last week was alarming and several quarterbacks have had big numbers against the Panthers with Russell Wilson being the third straight quarterback to pass for over 300 yards against the Panthers. Carolina has also allowed 20 or more points in four of the last six games despite allowing just 19.3 points on the season.”

There aren’t many strong trends recently in the NFC Championship even though four of the last eight title games have reached overtime. Road teams have won three of the past six NFC title contests with the 2012 49ers being the last club to accomplish this feat at Atlanta. Underdogs own a 5-3 ATS record in the past eight championships, while home favorites are 1-4 ATS in the last five opportunities since 2007. The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 title games, as the winning team has scored at least 28 points six times.

From a totals perspective, the Cardinals eclipsed the ‘over’ in five of eight road games, but the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the past seven contests overall. The Panthers owned a 6-2-1 record to the ‘over’ at Bank of America Stadium, while hitting the ‘over’ in six of the last eight games overall. Carolina has cashed the ‘over’ in each of their past three playoff games, but none of those totals were higher than 41½.

There hasn’t been much line movement in this contest, as the Panthers opened up as three-point home favorites and that number has stayed the same for the most part. The total is hovering between 47 and 47½ as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40’s at kickoff and dropping into the high 20’s in the second half. The game kicks off at 6:40 PM EST and can be seen nationally on FOX.

NFL Conference Championships Betting Preview
By Covers.com

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)

Future Hall-of-Famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady could be squaring off for the last time and, appropriately, a Super Bowl berth is on the line when the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday. Brady carries an 11-5 advantage into the 17th career meeting between the two best quarterbacks of their generation, but Manning won the last postseason matchup in January 2014.

The second-seeded Patriots lost at Denver in overtime in Week 12 and dropped their final two regular-season games to give the Broncos home-field advantage, but they rebounded to end Kansas City's 11-game winning streak with a 27-20 victory last week. "It's pretty hard to get to this point," Brady said. "There's only four teams standing. Two of these teams have to go home. Hope we're not one of them." Denver capitalized on a late turnover to score 11 points in the final three-plus minutes for a 23-16 victory over sixth-seeded Pittsburgh last week. Manning, who did not play in the earlier meeting with New England, made his first start since Nov. 15 in last week's victory.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as a rare 3-point road favorite visiting the No. 1 ranked team and can still be found at that number at most books, but there are some Patriots -3.5 popping up at some places. The total has held steady at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - WR M. Slater (probable Sunday, shin), T S. Vollmer (probable Sunday, ankle), QB T. Brady (probable Sunday, ankle), WR B. LaFell (probable Sunday, foot), TE R. Gronkowski (probble Sunday, knee), WR J. Edelman (probable Sunday, foot), WR D. Amendola (probable Sunday, knee), LB J. Collins (probable Sunday, back), LB D. Fleming (questionable Sunday, back), LB J. Freeny (questionable Sunday, hand), LB D. Hightower (questionable Sunday, knee), DE C. Jones (questionable Sunday, abdominal), DE R. Ninkovich (questionable Sunday, shin), TE S. Chandler (questionable Sunday, knee), DB N. Ebner (questionable Sunday, hand), OL L. Waddle (questionable Sunday, shoulder), G T. Jackson (out Sunday, knee).

Broncos - CB C. Harris (probable Sunday, shoulder), TE O. Daniels (probable Sunday, knee), QB P. Manning (probable Sunday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 44 percent chance of rain at kickoff that can turn to snow as the game moves along. Temperatures will be in the low 40's and will drop throughout the game. There will be a slight 3-5 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern end zone.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The look-ahead line last Sunday morning was going to be Patriots -1.5 (at Broncos). However, after Denver's lackluster win over Pittsburgh, the oddsmakers opened New England -3. The line has gone back and forth from -3 to -3 -120 during the week with a few sportsbooks moving to -3.5. This is a very key number as NFL favorites win by exactly a field goal 10% of the time. Denver won the earlier meeting this season in overtime as a +2.5 home underdog. The Broncos held a 433-301 total yards edge (5.6-4.9 yppl), including a dominating 179-39 rushing edge. However, New England was short-handed on offense in that game as WR Julian Edelman did not play due to injury." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-4, 8-7-2 ATS, 10-7 O/U): Slot receiver Julian Edelman, who missed the last game in Denver, returned from a two-month injury absence and provided an immediate spark to New England's offense with 10 receptions for 100 yards. Tight end Rob Gronkowski shook off knee and back ailments to grab seven passes for 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns as New England had just seven rushing attempts from its running backs. Brady threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns in November but was missing both Edelman and Danny Amendola while Gronkowski was carted off the field with just under three minutes to play in regulation. The Patriots were second to Denver in the regular season with 49 sacks but lost starting linebacker Jerod Mayo to a shoulder injury.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (13-4, 8-8-1 ATS, 6-10-1 O/U): Manning, who threw only nine touchdown passes versus 17 interceptions during the regular season, finished 21-of-37 for 222 yards in last week's win for Denver, which was limited to four field goals before finally getting in the end zone with 3:04 to play. C.J. Anderson has come alive down the stretch, rushing for 240 yards over his last three games while averaging a healthy 6.2 yards per carry. Emmanuel Sanders, who had five receptions for 85 yards last week, made nine catches for 113 yards in the first matchup with New England. The Broncos led the league with 52 sacks and also ranked No. 1 in passing yards (199.6) and total yards against (283.1).

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 playoff games.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 playoff games.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Patriots in Brady-Manning 17, with 61 percent of wagers on New England. As for the total, 61 percent of the wagers are on the over.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)

The Carolina Panthers are perfect at home this season and hope to ride that advantage to the second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night in a matchup of the top two seeds in the NFC. The Panthers rolled to the best record in the league behind an unblemished home record that remained intact with last weekend's 31-24 victory over Seattle.

“They say to get something that you’ve never had, you have to do something you’ve never done,” Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said. “For us, we’ve never had that vibe in the streets of Charlotte and I expect nothing less than what we saw on Sunday.” The No. 2-seeded Cardinals also are seeking to reach their second Super Bowl and will have a bit of added motivation against the Panthers. Playing with their third-string quarterback, Arizona dropped a 27-16 decision at Carolina a year ago and was held to an NFL playoff record-low 78 yards. The Cardinals, who outlasted Green Bay 26-20 in overtime last week, boast the league's No. 2 scoring offense at 30.6 points per game - behind only the Panthers (31.3).

LINE HISTORY: The line for the NFC title tilt has held steady at the opening number of Panthers -3 with just the juice getting adjusted. The total opened at 47 and spent some time at 47.5, before getting bet back down to the opening number.

INJURY REPORT:

Cardinals - RB D. Johnson (probable Sunday, toe), QB C. Palmer (probable Sunday, finger), WR J. Brown (probable Sunday, shoulder).

Panthers - RB F. Whittaker (probable Sunday, ankle), RB J. Stewart (probable Sunday, ankle), TE G. Olsen (probable Sunday, stinger), DE J. Allen (out Sunday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: Plenty of snow hit Charlotte this weekend, but it should be clear, albeit chilly for kickoff. Temperatures will hover around freezing for the game and there will be minimal wind.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The look-ahead line before last week for this possible matchup was Carolina -3 and that is exactly where the oddsmakers opened the real line. It appears the public is backing the Panthers, so this line might rise to -3.5 by kickoff. Last week, heavy money came in on Carolina (vs. Seattle) near game time as the Panthers went from -1 to -2.5/-3. It will be interesting to see if the public money pushes this line higher once again this week." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (14-3, 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U): Arizona's high-powered offense has stalled of late, managing only six points in a loss to Seattle in the regular-season finale and 10 through three quarters in last week's matchup versus Green Bay. Quarterback Carson Palmer admitted to being "tentative" in the first half against Green Bay before throwing for 275 of his 349 yards after halftime. Larry Fitzgerald had eight receptions for 176 yards and the winning touchdown, but rookie running back David Johnson struggled for the second straight game as he was limited to 35 yards on 15 carries. Arizona's defense sacked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers eight times in Week 16 but got to him only once last weekend.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (16-1, 12-5 ATS, 11-5-1 O/U): Carolina delivered an early knockout punch to the Seahawks, bolting to a 31-0 halftime lead before holding off a late comeback for its 12th straight home victory. Jonathan Stewart returned from a three-game injury absence to rush for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns, alleviating the pressure on Newton, who threw for only 161 yards and a score. Tight end Greg Olsen is the top target of Newton, going over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons while hauling in seven passes for 77 yards and a TD against Seattle. Carolina's defense dominated the Seahawks up front and recorded five sacks, but defensive end Jared Allen may be unavailable due to a fractured foot.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 versus NFC.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last seven games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last six home games.

CONSENSUS: The public likes the home side with the NFC title on the line with 62 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total, 66 percent of wagers are on the over.