NFL Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 9

AFC Wild Card Notes
VegasInsider.com

Kansas City at Houston

Opening Line: Chiefs -3, 40½

Kansas City Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Houston Home Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in the opening week of the season as the Chiefs held off the Texans at NRG Stadium, 27-20 to cash as one-point favorites. Kansas City jumped out to a 27-9 halftime lead and never looked back as quarterback Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns, including two touchdown strikes to tight end Travis Kelce.

Playoff Notes: Houston returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2012 when the Texans were eliminated at New England in the divisional round, 41-28. The Texans have won both of their home playoff games in franchise history, beating Cincinnati in the Wild Card round in 2011 and 2012. Kansas City last appeared in the postseason in 2013, blowing a 28-point lead in a stunning 45-44 defeat at Indianapolis in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since 1993, losing eight straight in the postseason, including three in a row on the road.

Total Notes: Kansas City posted an 8-7-1 record to the ‘over’ this season, including five ‘overs’ away from Arrowhead Stadium. Houston also put together an 8-7-1 ‘over’ mark, even though the Texans went 4-2 to the ‘under’ in the final six contests. The Texans cashed five ‘unders’ at NRG Stadium, while allowing three of their final five opponents at home to six points.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Opening Line: Steelers -2, 46½

Pittsburgh Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS

Cincinnati Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The road team won each of the two meetings this season, as the Steelers knocked off the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 14 by a 33-20 count. Andy Dalton’s season ended that day as the Bengals’ quarterback broke his right thumb attempting to make a tackle following an interception. Steelers’ running back DeAngelo Williams scored two touchdowns in that victory, but he is listed as questionable for the Wild Card game with a sprained ankle.

Playoff Notes: The Bengals have lost four Wild Card games in each of the past four seasons, although three of those defeats came on the highway. Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh in the 2005 Wild Card round at home, 31-17, as the Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl that season. The Bengals are mired in a long postseason drought, last capturing a playoff win back in 1990. The Steelers are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in Mike Tomlin’s coaching tenure, as Pittsburgh was tripped up at home by Baltimore last season 30-17 in the Wild Card round. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010, while losing its last road postseason contest at Denver in overtime in 2011.

Total Notes: Cincinnati cashed the ‘under’ nine times this season, including an 8-2 mark to the ‘under’ in the final 10 games. The Steelers began the season at 7-2 to the ‘under’ the first nine games, followed by a 4-2 run to the ‘over’ to finish the season. Pittsburgh compiled a 6-2 mark to the ‘under’ away from Heinz Field, while cashing the ‘over’ in five of the last seven visits to Cincinnati.

Saturday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-5) at HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas City -3.5, Total: 40.5

The NFL postseason begins with the Texans hosting a Chiefs team that has won 10 straight games entering Saturday’s win or go home battle.

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the league entering the postseason, as their 23-17 home victory over Oakland in Week 17 was their 10th straight victory. Kansas City has not been blowing teams out, though. In fact, the Chiefs have covered in just one of their past four games. The Texans, meanwhile, won-and-covered in their final three games and they needed all of those wins to come away as the winner of the AFC South.

These two teams have already met this season and the Chiefs were the winners in that Sep. 13 game. Kansas City went into Houston that day and won 27-20 as a one-point road favorite. The team has won the only two meetings in this series over the past three seasons.

There are trends that work both ways in this game, as the Chiefs are 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons. They are also, however, a miserable 1-10 ATS in playoff games since 1992.

The Chiefs have been playing insanely well, but none of that matters if the team can’t pick up a win on Saturday. Kansas City will lean heavily on its defense in this one and it is for good reason. The Chiefs have allowed 17 or less points in four straight games and have not allowed more than 22 points in a single game since a Week 4 loss to the Bengals. Offensively, Kansas City will lean on a running game that has churned out 127.8 yards per game (6th in NFL). The Chiefs have had no problem dealing with the loss of Jamaal Charles, as Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware have run the ball extremely well in his place. They will need to find a way to be effective on Saturday.

As for Alex Smith, the quarterback must avoid making any costly errors on Saturday. He has thrown for 3,486 yards with 20 touchdowns and just seven interceptions this year, but one of those picks was against the Raiders in Week 17 and it went the other way for a touchdown. That type of error could be the difference in whether or not his team can advance.

The Texans were a long shot to make the postseason before the year, but the team was able to surprise people en route to doing so. Houston’s defense was remarkable during a three-game winning streak to finish the season. The Texans allowed just 22 points over the final three weeks of the year and that play on the defensive end is what ultimately got the team into the playoffs.

Brian Hoyer was also a revelation for the Texans, throwing for 2,606 yards with 19 touchdowns and just seven picks this season. He’ll look to keep the ball out of the Chiefs’ hands for as long as he can on Saturday and should be able to do that as long as he is targeting DeAndre Hopkins often. Hopkins emerged as one of the best receivers in football this season, hauling in 111 catches for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns. He should have no problem finding success against the Chiefs, as he had nine receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns when they met earlier in the season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-6) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (12-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -2.5, Total: 45.5

Saturday’s second AFC playoff game will feature the Bengals hosting the division rival Steelers.

Pittsburgh needed a win over Cleveland plus a Jets loss to the Bills in Week 17 or the team was not going to make the playoffs, and the Steelers got just that. The team went into FirstEnergy Stadium and defeated the Browns 28-12 as 12.5-point favorites and the Jets lost 22-17 in Buffalo.

The Steelers now face a Cincinnati team that they are 4-2 both SU and ATS against over the past three seasons. Each team won-and-covered when playing in the other’s stadium this season, but the Steelers are an impressive 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS when playing in Cincinnati since 1992.

This is, however, a different Bengals team. Cincinnati was extremely impressive throughout the regular season and comes into this one after having gone 4-2 both SU and ATS over the final six weeks of the season. Some trends to keep an eye on are that the Bengals are just 3-12 ATS in January games since 1992.

They are also, however, an impressive 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their previous three games this season.

RB DeAngelo Williams (Ankle) is questionable for the Steelers coming into this one. For the Bengals, QB Andy Dalton (Thumb) got his cast removed this week but A.J. McCarron is being prepped as the starter.

The Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in football, scoring 26.4 PPG (4th in NFL) thanks to 287.7 YPG passing (3rd in NFL) and 107.8 YPG rushing (16th in NFL). This team can get it done in any way necessary offensively, but the injury to DeAngelo Williams complicates things. If he can play, he must run the ball effectively.

It would really hurt Pittsburgh if he is forced to sit out or just doesn’t perform the way he is capable of. With the uncertainty in the running game, Ben Roethlisberger is going to have a lot more on his plate. As usual, the Steelers quarterback piled up numbers with 3,938 yards, 21 touchdowns and 16 picks in just 12 games this season.

He did, however, struggled against Cincinnati on the year. In two meetings with the team, Roethlisberger threw for just one touchdown and was picked off four times. He will need to take care of the ball in this one. Antonio Brown will need to help his quarterback by getting open in this game. He had just 13 catches for 144 yards and no touchdowns in two meetings with the Bengals this season and that is very unlike him, as he had 1,834 yards with 10 touchdowns on the season. Defensively, the Steelers will need to put pressure on whoever is playing quarterback for the Bengals. Dalton has struggled in the playoffs and will be nervous coming into this one and the same will be the case for McCarron, who has never started a playoff game.

The Bengals had a very good season, but they will unfortunately be dealing with a bad situation at quarterback in this game. Andy Dalton, who threw for 3,250 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions in 13 games this year, is just getting over a fractured hand and is unlikely to play in this one.

That leaves AJ McCarron as the starter and he will certainly be nervous in his first postseason start. McCarron has already faced the Steelers in Cincinnati this season and Pittsburgh won that game 33-20. McCarron was 22-for-32 with 280 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in that one. He will need to be more careful with the ball, as he can’t be handing it over to Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense on Saturday.

If the Bengals are going to win this game then the team is going to really need to play a good game defensively. With a young quarterback starting, this game will need to be won in grind-it-out fashion. This should not be a problem for a Cincinnati defense that allowed just 17.4 PPG (2nd in NFL) this season. The team also allowed just 18 passing touchdowns (2nd in NFL), which really bodes well considering Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will be in town on Saturday.

Saturday's NFL Wild Card games
By Covers.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3.5, 40)

The two hottest teams in the NFL kick off the AFC wild-card round on Saturday as the Kansas City Chiefs look to extend their franchise-best 10-game winning streak when they visit the AFC South-champion Houston Texans. Kansas City rebounded from a horrid 1-5 start to run the remainder of the regular-season table and push Denver to the limit before the Broncos claimed the AFC West title on Sunday.

Spencer Ware rushed for his team-leading sixth touchdown in Kansas City's 23-17 victory over Oakland on Sunday, but the 24-year-old was on the practice squad when the Chiefs posted a 27-20 victory over Houston on Sept. 13. Jamaal Charles' season-ending ACL injury a month later expanded the workload of Charcandrick West and Ware while Alex Smith's conservative passing game helped Kansas City advance to the postseason for the second time in three years. While the Chiefs are favored on the road, the Texans have won three straight to unseat Indianapolis as the AFC South champion. Brian Hoyer, who was benched in the Week 1 loss to Kansas City, threw for 249 yards and a touchdown on Sunday as Houston claimed its first division title since 2012 with a 30-6 rout of Jacksonville.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs as 3-point road faves but that is now -3.5. The total is down to 40 from the opening 40.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs - LB Tamba Hali (Probable, thumb), LB Justin Houston (Probable, knee), WR Jeremy Maclin (Probable, hip), DB Husain Abdullah (Questionable, concussion), T Jah Reid (Questionable, knee), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, concussion), OL Mitch Morse (Questionable, concussion), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, concussion), WR De'Anthony Thomas (I-R, concussion), OL Ben Grubbs (I-R, neck), TE James O'Shaughnessy (I-R, foot), RB Jamaal Charles (I-R, knee), DB Phillip Gaines (I-R, knee), OL Paul Fanaika (I-R, undisclosed), QB Tyler Bray (I-R, knee), LB Justin March (I-R, knee).

Texans - WR Cecil Shorts (Probable, hamstring), WR Nate Washington (Probable, hip), S Rahim Moore (Questionable, illness), LB Jadeveon Clowney (Questionable, foot), DE Jeoffrey Pagan (Questionable, illness), T Duane Brown (I-R, quadriceps), DB Charles James (I-R, foot), QB T.J. Yates (I-R, knee), C Greg Mancz (I-R, knee), RB Arian Foster (I-R, Achilles), S Lonne Ballentine (I-R, knee), LB Carlos Thompson (I-R, wrist), T Jeff Adams (I-R, knee), QB Tom Savage (I-R, shoulder), LB Reshard Cliett (I-R, knee), T David Quessenberry (I-R, illness).

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-3) + Texans (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -1.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Trend bettors take note: Teams riding a winning streak of eight games or more coming into the playoffs (like the Chiefs) are on a 1-14 ATS slump in their first postseason game since 2004." Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-7-1 O/U): Smith tossed two of his three touchdown passes to Travis Kelce in the win over Houston, with the tight end making six catches for a season-high 106 yards. Jeremy Maclin was limited to five receptions for 52 yards in that contest but has settled in as Smith's go-to receiver after finding the end zone six times in the last six games - including once in each of the past three weeks. Maclin suffered a bruised hip versus the Raiders but returned to finish that contest and is expected to play on Saturday.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-7-1 O/U): Stud defensive end J.J. Watt shed the cast on his broken left hand and registered three sacks versus the Jaguars on Sunday to finish the season with an NFL-best 17.5. Whitney Mercilus tied a career high with 3 1/2 last week and set a personal best with 12 this season for Houston, which recorded a franchise-best 45 sacks. Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins (career-high 111 catches, 1,521 yards, 11 touchdowns) began his breakout season with nine catches for 98 yards and two scores versus the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston.
* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Texans are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games in January.

CONSENSUS: Sixty percent of Covers users are backing the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 45.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in familiar territory, squeezing into the playoffs as the sixth seed and challenging the AFC North-champion Cincinnati Bengals in the wild-card round. The Steelers made the most of that situation 10 years ago by winning the Super Bowl, and it's a path they'd like to travel again when they visit Paul Brown Stadium on Saturday.

Pittsburgh's high-octane offense looks to lead the way as Ben Roethlisberger threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday in a 28-12 victory over Cleveland. Antonio Brown (career-high 136 receptions and 1,834 yards) had 187 yards versus the Browns on 13 catches, but he totaled that many receptions as the Steelers and Bengals each claimed a road contest in the series. While Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have won four of five to enter the playoffs, the Bengals are making their fifth consecutive postseason appearance with a question under center. While second-year backup AJ McCarron is expected to play on Saturday, Andy Dalton is inching toward a return - perhaps as early as next week should Cincinnati advance - after fracturing his thumb in the Bengals' 33-20 loss to Pittsburgh on Dec. 13.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Bengals as 2.5-point home pups but that has moved to +3. The total opened at 46.5 and is down to 45.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - WR Sammie Coates (Questionable, illness), CB Doran Grant (Questionable, groin), RB DeAngelo Williams (Out, foot), RB Le'Veon Bell (I-R, knee), CB Cortez Allen (I-R, knee), T Kelvin Beachum (I-R, knee), TE Rob Blanchflower (I-R, ankle), C Maurkice Pouncey (I-R, ankle), QB Bruce Gradkowski (I-R, hand), K Shaun Suisham (I-R, knee), T Mike Adams (I-R, back).

Bengals - WR Mario Alford (Questionable, personal), HB Ryan Hewitt (Questionable, knee), QB Andy Dalton (Out, thumb), DT Brandon Thompson (I-R, knee), LB Emmanuel Lamur (I-R, knee), CB Darqueze Dennard (I-R, shoulder), WR James Wright (I-R, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 69 percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3.5) + Bengals (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -2.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After losing stud RB LeVeon Bell earlier in the season, Mike Tomlin just lost his replacement DeAngelo Williams. New starting RB Fitz Toussaint has 24 career carries. The Bengals defense has been the best in the NFL against the deep ball, ranked #1 in the NFL against passes that travel at least 16 yards from the line of scrimmage." Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-6 SU 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): While Pittsburgh's vaunted aerial attack is raring to go, its rushing game could be a sore spot as veteran DeAngelo Williams' ankle injury may play a major role on Saturday. Williams (team-leading 907 yards, 11 touchdowns) is listed as day-to-day while coach Mike Tomlin reportedly is considering Fitzgerald Toussaint (42 yards) and journeyman Jordan Todman (22 yards) in the gameplan. The Steelers only have to look to their first-round contest last year, when the absence of Le'Veon Bell led to a limited ground attack - and an early exit at the hands of arch-rival Baltimore.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (12-4 12-3-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U): A.J. Green reeled in a season-high 11 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown in Cincinnati's 16-10 win over Pittsburgh on Nov. 1 before adding six catches for 132 yards and a score in the latter meeting. While Green led the team with 86 receptions and 1,297 yards, his 10 touchdowns were only eclipsed by tight end Tyler Eifert (13). Jeremy Hill overcame a sluggish start to record six touchdowns in his last seven games, but he was limited to just 76 yards on 22 carries collectively in two meetings with the Steelers.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Cincinnati.
* Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in January.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of Covers users are backing the Steelers.

NFL Wild Card Round

Chiefs (11-5) @ Texans (9-7) -- Kansas City won last 10 games after 1-5 start; only win was 27-20 (+1) here in season opener- two of its three TD drives in that game were less than 20 yards (+2 TO ratio). KC won field position by 21 yards; four of 13 drives started in Texan territory. Texans are 7-2 in last nine games after 2-5 start; they're in playoffs for first time since 2012- seven of their last eight games stayed under total, as have three of last four KC games. Chiefs are 4-3 overall in series, going 3-2 in five visits here. Home side won 4-5 game in AFC last four years; favorites covered four of last five. This is O'Brien's first playoff tilt as a head coach; he was an assistant at New England, so he's been around the playoffs. Reid is 10-10 in playoff games, 0-3 since 2009.

Steelers (10-6) @ Bengals (12-4) -- Marvin Lewis is 112-100-2 as Bengals' coach, but 0-6 in playoff games, 0-4 last four years. Cincy QB Dalton (thumb) is out here, so McCarron is Bengal starter- he's started three (2-1) NFL games. Road team won both series games this year; Bengals (even) won 16-10 at Heinz in Week 8. Steelers (+2.5) won 33-20 here in Week 14, in game where Dalton hurt his thumb. Pitt won four of last five series games overall, are 4-1 in last five visits here. Bengals split last eight games after an 8-0 start. Steelers are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games- they lost three of last five road games. AFC 6-seed won this game five of last seven years. Tomlin is 5-4 in playoff games but his last win was in 2010. Pitt won 31-17 here in '05 playoff game.

Over last ten years, home underdogs in this round are 5-6 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

If you had forecast these matchups in the preseason, you would have done so expecting Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, LeVeon Bell and Jeremy Hill would be doing the bulk of the lifting on the ground. Of that elite group of running backs, only Cincinnati’s Hill is active, and he may ultimately lose out on carries to Giovani Bernard.

Before you go thinking the Bengals are in the most favorable spot, they’re of course without starting QB Andy Dalton.

This AFC Wild Card is simply about survival. The four-team field certainly has experience in doing just that.

Chiefs (-3) at Texans

These teams played back in Week 1, which means both coaches have a firm grasp on many of the points of contention they need to win in order to advance. Although certain personnel is completely different, philosophy remains the same, as do the starting quarterbacks both teams prepared for to start the season, Kansas City’s Alex Smith and Houston’s Brian Hoyer.

Smith torched the Texans for a season-high three first-half touchdowns in the opener, proving active with his feet as well. In fact, up until he tied the mark during the finale against Oakland, his nine carries against Houston held up as a season-long. J.J. Watt did pick up the first two of his NFL-leading 17.5 sacks, but the game was basically over at halftime after Travis Kelce found the end zone twice in the first quarter and the Chiefs held a 27-9 lead after 30 minutes. Andy Reid’s team didn’t manage to gain more than 25 yards on a single drive in the second half, in part because they didn’t have to.

This isn’t that Chiefs offense, one that helped the team to a perfect preseason and was fueled by Charles, who was perhaps the NFL’s most feared playmaker at the time, scoring five touchdowns in the first three games. Kansas City relies on an improved offensive line, Smith’s quick decision-making and mobility and the legs of former backups Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. West, an undrafted free agent, is most like Charles and a threat catching passes out of the backfield, while Ware, a former sixth-round pick, is more of a pounder and short-yardage threat. Both will see action to help keep the Texans pass-rush, which ranks fifth in the league with 45 sacks. Kansas City ranks fourth with 47.

Hoyer threw for 236 yards before being replaced by Ryan Mallett, who wound up starting the next two weeks, part of what has been a wild year for the player who emerged from training camp with the job but wound up starting only 11 games due to concussion issues and Bill O’Brien’s early indecision. After suffering concussions each of the past two months, Hoyer returned in Week 17 to throw 40 passes, completing 25 for 249 yards, in the 30-6 win over Jacksonville that clinched Houston’s postseason berth.

The Texans offense will rely on Alfred Blue as the primary back. Blue, who shared carries with Ware at LSU, comes off his third 100-yard game of the season against the Jaguars and has been a reliable option. Jonathan Grimes will get third-down carries, while top receiver DeAndre Hopkins will be leaned upon to help move the chains in chunks.

It should be noted that these are two of the better defense in the league against tight ends, which makes Kelce’s Week 1 exploits all the more impressive.

Kansas City is expecting to have sack-leader Justin Houston back after a lenghty absence due to a knee injury, which combined with the availability of Tamba Hali and Dee Ford, means the defense will be absolutely loaded up front. Safety Husain Abdullah is also due back from a neck injury, though he's listed as questionable. Houston is completely healthy outside of former No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney, who is questionable due to a foot injury. He practiced Thursday.

The total here opened at 41 but has settled at 40 at most books. Weather is expected to be partly cloudy with some wind, but should be relatively mild for a January playoff game. Reid is 10-10 in the playoffs and 0-1 with Kansas City, losing that memorable 45-44 game to Indianapolis two years ago. O’Brien, who has a rich playoff history as an assistant in New England, will be leading his first playoff game as head coach.

Steelers (-3) at Bengals

These AFC North powers split the regular-season meetings, but the single most important event that happened in either game came after Dalton fired a first-quarter interception on Dec. 13. He broke his thumb attempting to make the tackle, ending a breakthrough season – at least for now.

A.J. McCarron, who came on and threw for a pair of touchdowns and two costly interceptions, will get the call to try and end a playoff drought that dates back to 1990. Head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in Wild Card games, including losses in four consecutive years. After missing all of his rookies season due to a shoulder injury, McCarron, who has thrown 115 passes over the past month as the starter, hasn’t been picked off since the Steelers game. The Bengals are hoping he can keep the offense productive without being careless with the football and are counting on his big game experience as a National Championship-winning quarterback at Alabama to help him settle in.

“I played in some big games in college,” McCarron said earlier this week. “There is a lot of media getting down there before national championship games. There were distractions in Miami and New Orleans. I feel like this is comfortable. I get to go home to my house every day and see my wife and little dog. I get to sit on my couch and watch film. It’s definitely fun.”

McCarron has sufficient weapons around him to make him look very good, starting with top target A.J. Green, who has caught touchdown passes from the backup QB in three of the last four games. Combined with Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Brandon Tate, Green ensures the Bengals will have a formidable receiving corps to lean on. Tight end Tyler Eifert returned from a concussion-related absence to catch his 13th touchdown pass of the season, the most anyone at his position produced in 2015.

Ben Roethlisberger participated in both games against the Bengals this season and threw just one touchdown and four interceptions. Despite the poor numbers, the Steelers are encouraged that they were able to score 33 points in Cincinnati less than a month ago. Since Roethlisberger missed most of the first-half of the season due to a knee injury, Pittsburgh’s numbers are weighed down due to the ineffective play of backups Mike Vick and Landry Jones. Over the past eight games, all started by Big Ben, the Steelers have averaged 31.8 points per game.

The offense has overcome the loss of LeVeon Bell, barely missing a beat due to the emergence of DeAngelo Williams, who scored 11 touchdowns this season. Unfortunately, a badly sprained ankle will keep him out of this Wild Card game, forcing the untested Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jordan Todman and fullback Will Johnson into extensive action. Although it might mean Roethlisberger will drop back to pass more than he ordinarily would, the veteran quarterback was confident the Steelers will overcome this setback too.

“I think we’ve got guys that have stepped up all year. I don’t think this will be any different. Whoever it is at running back, the good thing is they’ve been here all year. They’ve been in the system, they know what they’re supposed to do. We expect them to step up and not miss a beat.”

Toussaint has gotten just 18 carries on the season, amassing 42 yards rushing (2.3 ypc), and hasn’t started a game since his final season at Michigan back in 2013. It will be his job to keep the Steelers offense from becoming one-dimensional.

Antonio Brown, who came up with an NFL-best 136 receptions, tying Atlanta’s Julio Jones, will be the primary catalyst for the Pittsburgh offense. Expect Roethlisberger to force-feed him if necessary, because the attention he’ll receive will make life easier for the rest of the offense. Brown caught 13 passes on 21 targets in the two games against the Bengals this season, but failed to register a 100-yard game.

These teams are obviously quite familiar with one another, especially given the continuity among the coaching staffs. Lewis has been Cincinnati’s head man since 2003, while Mike Tomlin has been at the helm in Pittsburgh since 2007. This will be the first time the head coaches meet in the playoffs. Tomlin has won 15 of 22 regular-season meetings.

Besides Dalton and Williams being out, both teams are relatively healthy. The total is available anywhere from 45-to-46 depending on the shop. Temperatures in Cincinnati are expected to be in the high-40s, but rain could be part of the equation.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Steelers (-2, 45) at Bengals

My raw power ratings make Cincinnati -3, but that number is based on the Bengals having Andy Dalton at quarterback.

Is Dalton really worth more than a field goal in the line? I don’t think he is, so the value appears to be on the Bengals in this game if the line goes back up to the key number of +3 or more. A.J. McCarron has played good enough for the Bengals to win, but the pressure is turned up now that this is a playoff game.

Cincinnati’s defense has been outstanding this season; the Bengals are allowing just 17.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Pittsburgh will also be without a key offensive player as running back DeAngelo Williams hurt his ankle last week, and of course RB Le'Veon Bell has already been lost for the season due to a knee injury. The Steelers will likely throw the ball a lot in this game now, but the Bengals have the 5th best secondary based on my efficiency metrics.