NFL Week 1
Saints @ Packers - Last 12 Super Bowl winners also won their season opener the next season (8-2-2 vs spread). Green Bay won/covered its last four home openers, with three of the four wins by six or less points; four of their last five home openers stayed under the total. Pack is 9-5-1 as home favorite last two years. Saints are 4-8-1 as road underdogs last four years. New Orleans won five of last six season openers- they’ve covered seven of last ten as an underdog in their first road game of the season. Saints are 2-8 in Wisconsin, 1-2 at Lambeau (Pack used to play some home games in Milwaukee). Adding Sproles for Bush gives Saints big upgrade at RB. Home favorites from NFC North are 16-10-1 in non-divisional games the last two years.
Steelers @ Ravens - Last 12 Super Bowl losers are 0-12 vs spread in their season opener the next season (2-10 SU). Baltimore won its last six home openers (over 4-1-1). Just second time in last nine years Steelers opened on road; since 1988, they’re 4-4 SU in Week 1 road openers, but they did start 1-0 last four years (all at home), allowing only 13.3 ppg. Pittsburgh won two of last three visits here, with only loss in OT; they’re 6-2 in last eight series games, beating Ravens in playoffs two of last three years. Pitt covered seven of last nine as a road underdog; since ’04, they’re 11-2 vs spread as dog of 3 or less points. Baltimore covered just two of last nine as divisional home favorite. Five of last six Steeler road openers stayed under total; over is 4-1-1 in Baltimore’s last six home openers.
Lions @ Buccaneers - Road team is 24-6-2 vs spread in Bucs’ games last two years, with Tampa Bay 3-12-1 in last 16 home games (2-2-1 as favorite, 1-10 as dog). Tampa Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, with five of last seven decided by 4 or less points; Lions are 2-3 in last five visits here, winning 23-20 in OT LY. Detroit is 12-9-2 as road underdog last three years. Bucs won three of last four home openers, allowing 14 or less points in all three wins- under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home openers. Detroit is 2-8 in last ten road openers (3-7 vs spread), with five of last six going over total. Last four years, Bucs are 11-7-1 as single digit favorite. Home favorites from NFC South are 18-10-2 vs spread in non-divisional games the last two years.
Falcons @ Bears - Atlanta lost last four road openers, scoring 7.8 ppg; they lost opener 15-9 in Pittsburgh LY even though Big Ben didn’t play for Steelers. Since 2005, Falcons are 6-2 as non-divisional road favorite. Home side won seven of last nine in series; Atlanta lost last five visits here, dropping 6-0/16-3 decisions in last two. Chicago won five of last six home openers, with three of last four staying under total. Falcons’ last win here was 1983- their last seven road openers stayed under the total. Since ’08, road favorites from AFC South are 11-8-1 in non-divisional games. Home dogs from NFC North are 9-5 in non-divisional games the last two years. Loss of veteran C Kreutz to Saints is big blow for Chicago OL.
Bills @ Chiefs - Cassel practiced Monday, is now expected to play. Chiefs are 1-5-1 as non-divisional home favorite since ’07; over last five years, NFC West home favorites (excluding San Diego) are 8-26-1 vs spread outside their division. Over last three years, AFC East road dogs are 24-14 vs spread as road underdogs in non-divisional games. Bills are 15-9 vs spread on road the last three years (11-8 as road dog), 6-2 vs spread in last nine road openers. Since 1993, under is 16-1-1 in Kansas City home openers, with last nine staying under total; Chiefs are just 4-7 SU in last 11 home openers, 2-5-1 vs spread as favorite in home openers. Buffalo won three of last four in series, losing 13-10 in OT LY; three of last four series totals were 26 or less. Teams split their last six meetings here. Six of Buffalo’s last seven road openers stayed under total.
Colts @ Texans - Looking like Manning isn't playing here, which will send spread skyward. Now or never for Gary Kubiak, with Wade Phillips expected to improve defense, and Indy crippled with either Collins/Painter trying to do the impossible and replace #18. Last two years, home favorites are 9-6 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, with Texans covering four of last six divisional home games. Since 2006, Colts are 9-3 as an underdog. Indy won nine of last 11 road openers, losing 34-24 (-1.5) here LY, just second win for Texans in 18 series games. Colts are 7-2 in nine visits here, with average total in last six, 55.2. Nine of last ten series totals were 47+. Since 1988, Colts are 1-8-1 vs spread as underdog in their road opener.
Eagles @ Rams - Philly is just 3-3 in last six season openers, with last three road openers going over total; they’re 19-13 vs spread on road last four years, 7-4 in last 11 tries as road favorite. Rams lost last four home openers, are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine; they’re 21-34 as underdogs last four years. Since 2007, St Louis is 7-14 as non-divisional home dog, but were 3-2 LY. Eagles won three of last four series games, with average total 28.5. St Louis is running new offense with increased depth at RB; Eagles are running new defense. Interesting to see if Bradford is allowed to throw downfield more in new offense.
Bengals @ Browns - Losing Palmer at QB, replacing him with rookie Dalton is a uniquely Bengal-like move, refusing to trade the vet QB, even though a trade would help them recoup some value. Cleveland is 1-11 in home openers, losing last six (scored 14 or less points in five of those six)- they’re 0-3 vs spread as a favorite in home openers, 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, but Browns do seem to be more harmonious with Holmgren running franchise and young QB McCoy showing promise under center. Cincinnati won last four Battles of Ohio, with three of four decided by three or less points; Bengals are 5-3 in last eight visits here, but 13-19 vs spread on road the last four years.
Titans @ Jaguars - Jacksonville is just 8-16 vs spread at home last three years, amid rumors team could be moving to LA; they’re 4-6 in last ten tries as divisional home favorite. New coach, new QB for Tennessee squad that covered last four season openers, winning three of last four road openers. Titans are 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four visits here- they covered five of last six as AFC South road dog. Titans’ last four series wins were all by 7+ points. Jaguars are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen openers, 8-3 in last 11 home openers, but they’ve lost three of last four SU. Under is 10-5-1 in Jaguar home openers, 12-2 in Titans’ last 14 road openers.
Giants @ Redskins - Did any NFL team have worse offseason than Giants, who lost key players without adding anyone of substance, except former 49er C Baas? That said, Big Blue is 9-1 in last ten series games, winning last six in row, holding Redskins to 14 or less points in five of those six games. Giants won their last five visits here by average score of 29-16- they scored 30+ points in four of last five road openers, but haven’t won a Week 1 road game since ’99 in Tampa (0-3 since). Since ’88, Giants are 8-2 vs spread as Week 1 favorite- their last seven road openers went over the total. Redskins won eight of last nine home openers, winning last four; seven of last eight stayed under total (only one of eight totals went over 35).
Panthers @ Cardinals - Arizona traded for Kolb in July, Carolina has a new head coach and three suspects at QB, with rookie Newton probably the best choice, so hard to imagine lot of great offense here. Carolina is 8-3 in last 11 series games, winning last seven in regular season, including last four visits to desert. Redbirds won four of last five home openers, as new domed stadium has given them home field edge at long last, but they’re just 3-7 as home favorite last two years. Very tough to lay points in Week 1 after chaotic offseason, but coaching change of Fox to Rivera doesn’t help the Panthers at all. Four of last five Arizona home openers went over total. Panthers lost six of last eight openers, but both wins were on road.
Seahawks @ 49ers - Both teams have huge questions at QB; can Jackson be the man in Seattle, and just who is the man by the Bay? Home side won last four series games, with Seattle 11-5 in last 16 overall, despite losing last two visits here, 23-10/40-21. 49ers are 10-4-2 as home favorite since ’08; Seattle is 6-19 as road underdog since ’07. Carroll-Harbaugh rivalry figures to intensify here; Harbaugh’s Stanford team once upset Carroll’s Trojans as 42-point underdog in one of biggest college upsets ever. 49ers won five of last six home openers; they’re 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight, with four of last five staying under. Seattle lost its last four road openers, with last three losses by 24-13-17 points; they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six. Home favorites are 18-10 vs spread in NFC West divisional games the last four seasons.
Vikings @ Chargers - Would you lay 8.5 points with Norv Turner in September? Didn’t think so. Expect Minnesota to try and pound ball with Adrian Peterson, taking pressure off new QB McNabb. Vikings are 5-8-1 as road dogs last three years; since 2005, they’re 8-15-1 vs AFC teams. Since ’06, Chargers are 24-14-1 as home favorite, 12-6-1 in last 19 vs non-divisional foes; they’re 17-10-1 vs NFC teams last six years. Under is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven road openers, but seven of Chargers’ last eight home openers went over. Vikings lost two of three visits here, with only win 33-31 thirty years ago.
Cowboys @ Jets - Since 1992, Gang Green is 3-16 vs spread in home openers, losing four of last five SU, scoring average of 13.8 ppg in last six- they’re 2-7 in last nine tries as a favorite in home openers. Over last four years, Jets are 8-15-1 vs spread as home favorite (8-8 in non-division, 0-7-2 in divisional games). Since 2003, Cowboys are 12-18-2 vs AFC teams, but are 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional road dog. Dallas is 7-2 in series, winning 34-3/17-6 in last two renewals of seldom-played series; Pokes are 5-1 vs Jets here, with only loss in 1990, when they were awful. Over is 12-3 in Cowboys’ last 15 road openers. Not sure its that relevant, but Rex Ryan’s brother Rob is new defensive coordinator for Dallas.
Patriots @ Dolphins - Hard to endorse a team that got booed by its own fans during training camp practices, and I’m not talking about the Patriots. Belichick is 12-5 in last 17 series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 20+ points- average total in last six series games is 52.8. Since 2004, Pats are 26-13 vs spread as a road favorite, 14-5 vs AFC East foes. Miami lost seven of last eight home openers (0-5 vs spread in last five). Miami is 6-9 vs spread as a home dog last four years. Six of Miami’s last nine home openers went over. This is first time in six years Patriots’ first road game isn’t against the Jets.
Raiders @ Broncos - Oakland hasn’t won season opener since ’02, but they won last three visits here and waxed Broncos twice LY, 59-14/39-23; since 2003, Raiders are 29-35 vs spread on road. Denver is 12-27-1 vs spread at home last five years. Fox is terrific coach, but was awful in home openers at Carolina (1-7 vs spread in last eight, 1-6 in last seven SU); Broncos are on 11-game win streak in home openers (9-3 vs spread in last 12 Week 1 home openers). Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ last dozen road openers. Over last five years, road teams are 37-22-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Only game this week where both head coaches are in first game with this team.
Week 1 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
The Week 1 NFL card provides bettors with 13 games on Sunday, as seven playoff teams from last season kick off their season at 1:00 PM EST. There are several key contests involving clubs that both made the second round, including the Falcons battling the Bears while the Ravens host the Steelers. We'll begin with the team that has caught everyone's eye in this brief offseason as the Eagles showcase their talents in Eastern Missouri.
Eagles (-4½, 43) at Rams
Philadelphia made headlines with a multitude of big-name signings following the lockout, as the Eagles look to capitalize off last season's NFC East title. Andy Reid's squad was a coin-flip proposition against the number last season by finishing 8-9 ATS, while not covering three straight games at any point. It will not be an easy task for Philadelphia as it takes on a St. Louis team that made a drastic improvement in 2010.
The Rams won more games last season (7) than they did in the previous three years combined (6), while pulling off three outright home underdog wins in the first six weeks of the season. St. Louis' offense wasn't outstanding, but the defense held seven of its first eight opponents to 18 points or less, turning the Rams into one of the best 'under' bets in the NFL. The Rams can't afford to get behind the eight-ball in the weak NFC West with four of their first five games coming against teams that won at least 10 games last season.
Steelers at Ravens (-1½, 36)
These two AFC North powers have seen each of their previous seven meetings decided by seven points or less, while Pittsburgh took two of three matchups from Baltimore last season. The Steelers are seeking their ninth straight opening week victory, including a 6-2 ATS mark in this stretch. The Ravens, meanwhile, cashed in just three of eight home games in 2010, while losing at home to Pittsburgh, 13-10 as three-point favorites.
Mike Tomlin's club hasn't been listed as an underdog many times in his four-year tenure, owning a 6-6 ATS record when receiving points. Regardless of the result on Sunday, the Steelers should cruise the next six weeks with matchups against the Seahawks, Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Cardinals prior to a showdown versus the Patriots on October 30 at Heinz Field.
Falcons (-3, 40½) at Bears
Chicago finished one game short of the Super Bowl thanks to a 21-14 loss to the eventual champion Packers in the NFC Title game, as the Bears welcome in the highly-touted Falcons. Atlanta has yet to win a playoff game with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but the Falcons are expected to do big things once again in 2011 after covering 11 of 17 games last season.
Three of the first four games are away from the Georgia Dome for the Falcons, as Mike Smith's team looks to capitalize off a 6-2 ATS mark on the highway last season, including a 5-1 ATS ledger as road 'chalk.' The Falcons are making their first trip to Soldier Field since 2005 when the Bears pulled out a December victory, 16-3 as 3½-point favorites. Chicago has won five of its previous six home openers under Lovie Smith, including twice as short underdogs against Detroit (2005) and Pittsburgh (2009).
Bills at Chiefs (-6, 40)
Kansas City captured the AFC West title by taking care of its business outside of the division with an 8-3 SU/ATS mark. Four of the Chiefs' first five opponents are non-division foes as Todd Haley's club welcomes in the Bills to Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo pushed Kansas City to the limit last October by cashing as seven-point favorites in a 13-10 overtime setback.
In spite of starting last season with eight consecutive losses, the Bills managed to cover five of their final eight games down the stretch, including outright wins at Cincinnati and Miami. Somehow, the Bills are pointspread gold in the opening week of the season with Week 1 covers in five of the last six seasons. The Chiefs aren't a great play as favorites under Haley by posting a 4-7 ATS record when laying points, even though Kansas City went 3-3 ATS as home 'chalk' last season.
What else to watch for:
The Giants head into Washington looking to beat the Redskins for the sixth straight time at FedEx Field in one of the four late kickoffs. Seven of the Redskins' eight home games last season were decided by six points or less, while holding five opponents at home to less than 17 points.
The Seahawks won the NFC West with a 7-9 record, but most of that damage was done at Qwest Field. Seattle picked up just two victories on the highway, dropping its road record to 5-20 SU since the start of 2008. Amazingly, 19 of those 20 losses have come by double-digits as the Niners enter Sunday's opener as five-point favorites.
NFL Week 1's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Scott Cooley
We take a look at the biggest mismatches on the field in Week 1 of the NFL season:
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 40)
Bills rushing defense vs. Chiefs rushing offense
When Chan Gailey showed up in Buffalo last season he tried to change to a 3-4 defensive system but didn’t have the personnel to do it (ended up reverting back to a 4-3 midseason). The front seven playing out of their normal positions resulted in the NFL’s worst run defense.
And the Bills weren’t just bad, they were awful. They allowed 169.6 yards per game (the 31st-ranked team gave up 15 yards fewer) and more than 200 yards rushing in half of their outings.
Buffalo brass didn’t do a lot to address the problem during the offseason. Nick Barnett was added but the team lost a better tackler and player in Paul Posluszny. And Reggie Torbor will miss the entire season after suffering a shoulder injury in camp.
The Chiefs boasted the best running attack in the NFL last year (164.2 ypg) and their offensive gameplan won’t deviate much in 2011. Kansas City also attempted a league-high 34.8 rushes per game with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones toting the load. That could increase this season with Dexter McCluster expected to take on an expanded role in the backfield.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 35.5)
Steelers pass rush vs. Ravens offensive line
Joe Flacco feels like a marked man when the Steelers line up on the other side of the ball. During the last three years, Pittsburgh has recorded 28 sacks in eight games against the Ravens. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison combined for 12 of those takedowns.
What’s concerning this Sunday is that Baltimore’s new-look offensive line hasn’t played a single snap together. Bryant McKinnie wasn’t signed until late August, center Matt Birk remains questionable and Michael Oher is moving from left to right tackle.
"It's not an ideal situation for us, that's for sure," Birk told reporters. "It is what it is. We'll work hard all week and study film and be as ready as we can for Sunday."
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 35.5)
A.J. Green vs. Joe Haden
If the Bengals are going to showcase any semblance of an offense this season, A.J. Green must make a big impact. As a rookie, he earned a starting spot next to Jerome Simpson but the sledding might be tough in his NFL debut.
Joe Haden is quickly becoming a star cornerback in the league. He will be assigned to Green this Sunday and it’s a mismatch all too familiar for the former Georgia Bulldog.
“He’s one of the best cornerbacks I’ve ever faced,” Green said of the Florida product.
These two first squared off in 2008 and Haden jumped a pass in front of Green and returned it 88 yards as the Gators won 49-10. The following year, Green was targeted even less (three receptions, 50 yards) and Florida won 41-7.
Week 1 Schedule
Kickoff rule vs. OVERS
It’s common knowledge by now, but worth repeating. Every NFL analyst and handicapper expects scoring to be down in 2011 because of the new kickoff rule.
With kickoffs coming from the 35-yard line instead of the 30, there will be more touchbacks and fewer long returns. In 2010, there were 23 kickoffs returned for touchdowns but in 1993 (the last year kickoffs were placed at the 35) there were only four touchdown returns.
“If you back up the offense and start them on the 20, you’re going to reduce the chances of scoring,” said Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio.
Of all the matchups in Week 1, the Lions-Buccaneers total is the only one that hasn’t dropped since opening and Saints-Packers was the only one that increased. The other 14 game totals plummeted by a combined 27 points.
“Our focus is going to be under first,” Covers Expert Dave Malinsky said. “You’d think (oddsmakers would) over adjust and create an over opportunity…but I think they’re going to be a little tied to their past models for totals, so in general we want to look under first.”
Thursday’s opener between New Orleans and Green Bay produced eight touchbacks on 12 kicks, but also featured a 108-yard kickoff return score from Packers rookie Randall Cobb, who tied the NFL record for the longest return TD. It’s a small sample to go from heading into the bulk of Week 1’s schedule.
NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 1
By Colin Kelly
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Why Lions cover: QB Matt Stafford once again healthy. Detroit covered last five of 2010 season and has been good underdog bet, cashing four in a row in that role. Home is where ATS losses are for Buccaneers, in a 5-16 ATS slide at Raymond James. Lions 7-1 ATS in last eight of this rivalry, 4-0 ATS on last four trips to Tampa.
Why Tampa covers: Surprising development of young QB Josh Freeman, who led Bucs to 7-2-1 ATS mark in final 10 games last season. Tampa 6-2-1 ATS in last nine vs. NFC.
Total (41): Under 12-4 in Bucs’ last 16 season openers, but over 3-0-1 in Tampa’s last four at home and 9-3-1 in Lions’ last 13 overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Why Steelers cover: Division dominance, cashing in last six against AFC North. Defending AFC champs also a consistent cover vs. Ravens, at 5-1-1 ATS in last seven overall and 9-4-1 in last 14 visits to Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s troops just 2-6-1 ATS in last nine division starts.
Why Ravens cover: Good as a chalk and good in Week 1, covering four of last five in each spot.
Total (36): Two defensive-minded teams should make under the lean (7-2 in Steelers’ last nine season openers, 10-3 in Ravens’ last 13 Week 1 games). Yet over is 7-3-1 in last 11 of this rivalry.
Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams (+4.5)
Why Eagles cover: Coach Andy Reid played farmer during summer, harvesting a bumper crop of free-agent standouts to go with superstar QB Michael Vick. Philly 7-1-1 ATS in last nine vs. St. Louis. Rams cashed in just one of its last 11 season openers (1-9-1 ATS) and are on 15-33-1 ATS dive in September games.
Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford should improve in Year 2, and running back Steven Jackson is healthy. St. Louis on a 7-3 ATS uptick in its last 10 and 5-2 ATS in last seven games at home. The home team has gone 6-2-1 ATS in last nine of this rivalry.
Total (43.5): Eagles went over in last six roadies, but under is on surges of 5-1 in Philly’s last six Week 1 starts, 5-0 in Rams’ last five season openers and 4-0 in this rivalry.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Why Bengals cover: Despite awful 4-12 SU mark last year, squad went 4-1 ATS in final five games and has cashed in four of last five September contests. In this Ohio rivalry, the underdog has covered in seven of last eight meetings. Browns on ATS purges of 2-6 laying points, 0-4 at home, 0-4 in AFC North and 1-10-1 in Week 1.
Why Browns cover: Bengals don’t have much to offer: No Carson Palmer at QB, no Chad Ochocinco or Terrell Owens at WR, starting a rookie QB in Andy Dalton, and starting RB Cedric Benson just returned from short stint in Texas jail. Cincy in 2-5 ATS rut as road pup.
Total (35.5): Under 5-2 in last seven meetings between these two, 8-2 in Bengals’ last 10 division tilts and 4-1 in Browns’ last five overall.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
Why Titans cover: Have cashed in last four season openers and 11 of last 14 September outings. New coach Mike Munchak should have attention of players, who may have tuned out Jeff Fisher after 16 seasons. Jags just dumped starting QB David Garrard.
Why Jaguars cover: Have covered in 10 of last 12 Week 1 games and are 4-1 ATS in last five laying points.
Total (37.5): Jags on host of over runs, including 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play, but total has gone low five of last six in this rivalry. Titans on 8-2 under stretch in AFC South.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Why Bills cover: Went 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 of 2010 campaign. Buffalo has K.C.’s number at betting window, covering last four meetings and five of last six at Arrowhead. Chiefs in pointspread ruts of 4-11-1 as chalk and 1-7 against AFC foes.
Why Chiefs cover: Favorite has gone 4-1 ATS in last five of this rivalry. Preseason rarely a great indicator, but Buffalo scored 10 or less in three of its four exhibition games.
Total (40.5): Under on tears of 8-1 in this rivalry, 7-3 overall for Buffalo, 10-3 for Bills in Week 1, 5-1 overall for K.C. and 5-1 at home for the Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-9)
Why Colts cover: Veteran leadership of just-called-off-the-couch QB Kerry Collins? Maybe not. But Indy sports ATS streaks of 6-1 as a pup and 5-1 as a road dog. Texans 2-5 ATS in last seven at home, and breakout RB Arian Foster’s status uncertain.
Why Texans cover: No Peyton Manning. It’s looking like Manning won’t play for Colts. Indy also 2-5 ATS in its final seven games last season.
Total (43): Two of NFL’s top scoring teams last year – Indy fourth (27.2 ppg) and Houston ninth (24.4 ppg). This rivalry has featured plenty of points lately, with the over 10-2 in last 12 clashes overall and 6-0 in last six in Houston. Over also 10-1 in Colts’ last 11 on highway.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Why Falcons cover: Road warriors have cashed last four on highway and five in a row as a road chalk. Ended last season on 7-2 ATS surge and are 10-3 ATS in last 13 Week 1 affairs.
Why Bears cover: Covered in four of last five overall and are 7-3 ATS in last 10 as a home dog.
Total (40.5): Under has cashed six straight times in this rivalry and seven in a row in Chicago’s season openers. But the over is on sprees of 8-2-2 overall for Atlanta, 4-0-1 for Falcons on road and 6-2 overall for Bears.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Why Seahawks cover: Pete Carroll’s troops 6-2 ATS in last eight NFC West games. Niners 4-8 ATS in last dozen games of 2010 campaign.
Why 49ers cover: Neither team has a QB worth writing home about, but Alex Smith gets the nod over Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson, with home team 4-0 ATS in last four clashes in this rivalry. Seattle also on ATS dives of 2-6 catching points and 6-20 as a road dog.
Total (38): Seattle on over tears of 10-1 overall, 9-1 in NFC and 18-7-1 as underdog. Over went 4-1 in Niners’ last five of 2010 season and 4-1-1 in San Fran’s last six division contests.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Why Panthers cover: Carolina league-worst 2-14 SU last season, but in this rivalry, Panthers cashed in five of last seven, road team is on 5-1 ATS swing and underdog has covered four of last five. Arizona on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 2-6 in September and 0-4 as home chalk.
Why Cardinals cover: Superior edge at quarterback, with Kevin Kolb (acquired from Eagles) light years ahead of Carolina rookie Cam Newton. Panthers cashed just twice in final 10 games last year and are in further ATS ruts of 0-6 in September, 0-4 catching points and 1-5 on highway.
Total (36.5): Over 4-1-2 in Panthers’ last seven as a pup and 7-2 in Cards’ last nine at home.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)
Why Giants cover: Tom Coughlin’s troops are spread-covering demons on the highway, carrying ATS streaks of 27-12 overall, 14-5 as road chalk and 4-1 in Washington. Redskins, meanwhile, just 6-14-2 ATS in last 22 at FedEx Field.
Why Redskins cover: Finished last year on modest 3-0-1 ATS uptick. Got rid of headache Albert Haynesworth.
Total (37.5): Over 9-3 in Giants’ last dozen division tilts, but under is on runs of 6-1 overall for Redskins, 16-7 at home for Washington and 6-2 in this rivalry.
Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers (-9)
Why Vikings cover: Well, they have no positive ATS trends to speak of, but they still have all-world RB Adrian Peterson. And hey, now they’ve got Donovan McNabb. He’s no Favre, and that’s a good thing.
Why Chargers cover: Bolts went 6-2-1 ATS in final nine last season and 4-1 ATS in last five at home. Vikes in ATS plunges of 3-8 overall, 3-9 in roadies and 1-9 as dogs.
Total (41.5): Under on surges of 6-2 overall for Vikings, 4-0 in Minnesota road contests and 4-0 in Chargers’ last four home starts.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4.5)
Why Cowboys cover: Coach Jason Garrett, who took over midstream last year, helped Dallas close season on 6-2 ATS run, and Cowboys have covered five straight from the underdog role.
Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s confident group, which has reached last two AFC title games, has cashed in six of last seven September starts.
Total (40.5): Over is 13-3 for Dallas, 18-6 for New York, 6-1 with Cowboys as underdogs and 7-3 with Jets as favorites.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7)
Why Patriots cover: Tom Brady & Co. on several pointspread upswings, including 44-21-3 ATS on the highway and 22-10 as road favorites. Road team 6-2 ATS in last eight in this rivalry. Miami 17-45-1 ATS in last 63 at home.
Why Dolphins cover: Fish on an 11-3 ATS run from underdog role, and the pup has grabbed the cash in five of last seven Dolphins-Pats contests.
Total (45.5): When the Pats are playing, scoreboards tend to light up. They led the NFL at 32.4 ppg last year - nearly five ppg higher than second-place Chargers. New England carries over streaks of 16-5 overall, 6-1 in AFC East action and 11-3 in season openers. Miami on over upticks of 11-4-1 at home and 5-1 as a home dog.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)
Why Raiders cover: Went a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS inside the AFC West last year and have owned this rivalry lately, going 8-2 ATS in last 10 overall and cashing in their last five trips to Mile High. Denver on boatload of bad ATS streaks, including 3-8-1 at home, 8-20-2 in division and 11-25-2 at home.
Why Broncos cover: Gave boot to failed coach Josh McDaniels, brought in veteran John Fox. Also realized Tim Tebow is not yet of starting caliber, and in fact might not even be a second-stringer.
Total (40): Over has been the play in six of last eight Raiders-Broncos clashes and is 16-5 in Denver’s last 21 overall, 8-0 in Broncos’ last eight at home and 9-3 in Oakland’s last dozen AFC contests.
Week 1 Weather Report
You’ve covered all the bases when it comes to making your NFL betting picks for Week 1. But have you checked out the weather? Here’s a look at the games expected to face the elements this Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 36)
This AFC North battle deserves the perfect setting, and nature will provided it Sunday afternoon. Showers are in the forecast for kickoff, giving way to thunderstorms in the second half. There’s a 44 percent chance of rain for M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 34.5)
The battle of Ohio will also get dumped on, with thundershowers and a 55 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Cleveland.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 37.5)
A chance of thunderstorms is called for in Jacksonville Sunday. There’s a 34 percent chance of rain and winds will get up into the mid teens, blowing ESE across EverBank Field.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 41)
One of the toughest games to handicap in Week 1 just got a bit tougher. Thunderstorms could plague Raymond James Stadium in the second half, with a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 37)
There is a chance of thundershowers for San Francisco Sunday. While there’s only a 19 percent chance of rain, winds will pick up in the second half, blowing WSW across the field.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 38.5)
Landover, Maryland is expected to see thunderstorms and a 43 percent chance of rain Sunday night.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-5.5, 40.5)
Thunderstorms are in the forecast for New Jersey, giving way to rain showers. There is a 36 percent chance of the wet stuff at MetLife Stadium with game-time temperatures in the high 60s.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+6.5, 45.5)
The first of the two Monday Night Football games could get rained on. Thunderstorms are in the forecast in South Beach, with a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 80s.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)
The forecast in Denver is calling for a chance of thunderstorms, but only a 10 percent chance of rain Monday. The skies will clear late in the game with game-time temperatures dipping into the 50s.
Week 1 Betting Trends and Angles
By Fairway Jay
We kicked off the NFL season with an easy over the total winner when the Packers beat the Saints, 42-34, in a shootout. Now the rest of the league kicks off on Sunday and Monday, and thought you might be interested in some trends and angles for opening week NFL action. Many line moves in Week 1 (some big moves) with the betting lines being posted for over a month and bettors able to fire at the lines based on expected line moves, preseason play and injury reports.
Less than two weeks ago, the Texans were a 3-point favorite over the Colts, but with Peyton Manning’ status in question the line zoomed to Houston -8.5/9. Manning then had his second neck surgery this week. Note additional line moves on other games of interest, and know that Week 1 is often the biggest betting week of the NFL season. Expect some line adjustments in Week 2 following surprising and/or poor play by teams (and even more so in college football).
I use a combination of fundamental (matchups), statistical and situational handicapping and will also incorporate some strong systems and technical analysis into consideration. I also utilize my proprietary database with over a decade of statistical information that helps me analyze the importance of running the football and stopping the run.
Many trends and angles are not worthy of consideration, but sometimes in Week 1 or other situations where line value may be compromised or over-adjusted, these trends and angles can make more sense and be considered. I provide these for informational purposes, as some handicappers, bettors, fans and followers like to reference these to perhaps further support (or keep them off) a play.
Here are some trends and angles of note for week 1 NFL games.
1. Opening week home favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have covered 70% of the last 50+ games. Play on Green Bay (win Thurs), Baltimore and Houston
2. Since 2001, Week 1 home favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior season are 23-7 ATS. Play on Green Bay (win Thurs), Houston, San Francisco and Denver
3. Week 1 road favorites have produced strong totals results, going under the total over 69% of the time with a sample size of 60+ games since 2000. Play under the total in Philadelphia/St. Louis, NE/Miami, NYG/Washington, and Atlanta/Chicago
4. Week 1 road underdogs that had six or less wins last season have covered 65% of the games since 2000 (sample size over 45 games). Play on Detroit, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Carolina, Minnesota and Dallas
5. Divisional favorites of -3 or less points have gone 15-5-1 ATS since 2000. Play on Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville and Denver
6. Since 2000, over 59% of the Week 1 games have gone under the total, and those games with a total of 36 or less have hit over 66% to the under. Note the new rule change for the final angle, as teams now kickoff from the 35 yard line and there should be more touchbacks and longer fields for the offenses. I have counted 13 games that have been bet down from the opening total in Week 1, so some value has been lost and must always be considered when placing a wager.
Good luck in Week 1 and throughout the season, and I look forward to providing more information, insight and winners again this season.