NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday 9/25

NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By Colin Kelly

We’re through two weeks of the NFL season, and what’s already clear is that this year will be predictably unpredictable – except maybe for Tom Brady and the Patriots. On to Week 3 of the NFL poolies' cheat sheet:

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Why 49ers cover: Call them resourceful. The Niners led the favored Cowboys almost the entire game last week despite getting outgained by a mile. San Fran ultimately lost in OT, but Cincinnati is no Dallas. Niners 11-4-3 ATS last 18 after a non-cover; Bengals 6-21 ATS last 27 as chalk.

Why Bengals cover: Cincy has beaten spread five straight times; San Fran 1-4 ATS last five on road. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was solid in close loss at Denver and will finally have fans behind him, in Cincy’s home opener.

Total (40.5): Both San Fran and Cincy have gone over total in both games this year, and over has hit in four straight for Niners. Bengals on 4-1 over run at home.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

Why Dolphins cover: Because they get to leave Miami. Fish have cashed eight of last 10 on road and nine of last 11 as a road pup. Cleveland on five-game ATS dive at home.

Why Browns cover: Have grabbed the cash in last four meetings with Miami. Dolphins also 5-15-2 ATS last 22 in September.

Total (41): Over 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six at home, but under 6-2 in Miami’s last eight on highway.

New England Patriots (-9) at Buffalo Bills

Why Patriots cover: Uh, they have Tom Brady. Does that about cover it? If not, well, Brady & Co. own Bills ATS, going 7-2 last nine overall (all as chalk) and 5-0 last five in Buffalo. In fact, visitor has cashed last five.

Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard, 2005) less talented than Brady, but had higher ACT score. Buffalo 7-3 ATS last 10 inside AFC.

Total (53): Can total be set high enough for high-flying Pats? Over 18-3 in New England’s last 21 overall.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-X)

Why Giants cover: Not facing Michael Vick would help, but status of Eagles QB still uncertain. Underdog 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings, road team 9-3 ATS last dozen meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Because they control Tom Coughlin and Co., having bagged last six SU and ATS. Giants QB Eli Manning hardly gave inspired Monday night performance vs. Rams, even in victory.

Total (XX): Philly gets ball up and down field all day long, scoring 31 in each of first two games. Over 11-4 in Eagles’ last 15 overall, and over 10-3 in Giants’ last 13 NFC East tilts.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Why Lions cover: Detroit a favorite on road for first time in, well, a long time. Preseason may not count in standings, but it does at betting window: Lions are 10-0 SU and ATS last 10 times they’ve taken field.

Why Vikings cover: More a Detroit negative than a Minnesota positive, as Lions on 0-8 ATS purge as road favorite, as rare as that role may be.

Total (45.5): Under has hit last six in this rivalry.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Why Texans cover: Cashed in four of past five September starts. QB Matt Schaub and wideout Andre Johnson remain a big-time combination.

Why Saints cover: QB Drew Brees has already faced two playoff teams in first two weeks (Packers, Bears), and he’s been sterling, with six TDs, no picks and no fumbles. New Orleans 4-1 ATS last five at home dome; Houston 1-6 ATS last seven getting points.

Total (53): Both offenses have ability to put up points. Over on 6-0 run with Houston as a pup. Still, under 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five at home.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7)

Why Broncos cover: Compelling reasons hard to find for Denver, which has been one of worst teams in league ATS the past few years. But Titans just 3-9 ATS last dozen following a SU win.

Why Titans cover: After weak effort in opener vs. Jaguars, Tennessee took down powerhouse Ravens in Week 2 as 5.5-point home underdog. Titans 12-4 ATS last 16 in September. RB Chris Johnson due for breakout, and Denver just the cure – Broncs 28th vs. rush (131.0 ypg).

Total (42): Over hit in last four Broncos-Titans meetings, nine of Denver’s last 12 roadies and nine of Tennessee’s last 12 at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Cam Newton’s play is shadowing an ugly spot in Carolina’s game: Its defense. The Panthers are giving up 406.5 yards per game.

Why Panthers cover: Jags will also start rookie in Blaine Gabbert, after Luke McCown put up a whopping 1.8 QB rating vs. Jets last week, throwing four INTs. Newton, though mistake-prone, has looked good, racking up more than 400 yards in each of first two starts.

Total (43): Under 7-0 in Panthers’ last seven laying points, but over 8-2 in Jags’ last 10 road games.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Seriously? Well. K.C. is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times it was catching more than 10 points. And Chiefs could be catching double digits a lot this year.

Why Chargers cover: Chiefs are flat-out awful. In fact, to call them awful might be an insult to all that is awful. K.C. has been outscored 89-10 over first two weeks – by Buffalo and Detroit.

Total (45.5): Under has hit in five straight at home for San Diego.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams

Why Ravens cover: Should be fuming after mustering just 13 points in road loss to Titans. St. Louis 1-5 ATS last six overall. Rams find red zone a dead zone – three drives inside 10-yard line vs. Giants yielded only FGs.

Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford, in second year, clearly has tools to be standout NFL starter. St. Louis a fair bounce-back bet, at 8-3 ATS last 11 after non-cover.

Total (41.5): Over has been play in four straight when Ravens coming off SU loss.

New York Jets (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops on bundle of positive ATS streaks, including 12-5 on highway and 6-1 as road chalk.

Why Raiders cover: Oakland has covered both games this year and should be 2-0 SU, but imploded after taking 21-3 lead vs. Bills last week. Running game, behind Darren McFadden, racking up 160.5 ypg, which could help keep Jets off field.

Total (41): Lots of trends point to the over. Jets on 15-5-1 over surge in last 21 roadies. Over has hit in five of last six overall for Oakland and four straight Raiders home games.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Cardinals cover: Seahawks think Tarvaris Jackson is NFL-caliber starting QB. Or maybe Pete Carroll is trying to boost chances in Andrew Luck sweepstakes come next year’s draft.

Why Seahawks cover: Seattle gets comforts of home stadium, after spending first two weeks losing SU and ATS on road. Home team 7-3 ATS last 10 in this rivalry. Cards failed to cash in last five NFC West outings and are 3-9 ATS last 12 on road.

Total (43): In this division rivalry, over 10-4 in last 14 meetings, but under hit four of last five in Seattle.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champs know this field well – they beat Chicago 21-14 in last season’s NFC title game at Soldier Field. In fact, Pack has been solid bet on last 13 trips to Windy City, going 10-3 ATS.

Why Bears cover: Big-time revenge game, not just for Chicago as a team, but for QB Jay Cutler, who took heavy ridicule after leaving NFC title game with injury.

Total (45.5): These two teams play-low scoring games when they square off. Total has gone low in seven straight Pack-Bears affairs and has been the play in four straight at Soldier Field.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Why Falcons cover: QB Matt Ryan back on track, coming off career-high four-TD performance in win vs. Eagles. Bucs 5-17 ATS last 22 at home. Road team scored ATS win in last five Falcons-Bucs tilts.

Why Buccaneers cover: QB Josh Freeman & Co. Can ill-afford to drop first two home games. In this NFC South rivalry, chalk 7-3 ATS last 10, and Tampa 6-2 ATS last eight.

Total (45.5): Under 8-3 in Bucs’ last eight division contests, but over 5-0-1 in Falcons’ last six roadies.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Why Steelers cover: No Peyton Manning. Indy a shell of itself without four-time MVP quarterback. Pittsburgh has covered five straight from favorite’s role, and Indy 1-6 ATS last seven at home dome.

Why Colts cover: A 10.5-point home dog? That’s a lot of points, even without Manning, and Colts are 9-2 ATS last 11 catching more than 10 points – though they’re almost never pups of that magnitude.

Total (39.5): Over 5-1 in Steelers’ last six overall and in Colts’ last six following pointspread loss.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-X)

Why Redskins cover: Washington expected to finish last in NFC East, yet off to 2-0 SU and ATS start. QB Rex Grossman actually looks serviceable – about as ringing an endorsement as can be given. Dallas 1-5 ATS last six Monday nighters; Redskins on 4-0 ATS run vs. Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Romo tough to keep down, playing with aforementioned injuries in OT win at San Francisco. And Cowboys finally get game in front of home fans, after spending first two weeks on road. Washington 0-4 ATS in last four Monday nighters.

Total (XX): The dome that Jerry Jones built seems to produce plenty of points. Over has hit nine straight at Cowboys Stadium.

Week 3 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Heading into Week 3 of the NFL, six teams are listed as road favorites, while only seven clubs are 2-0 out of the chute. Five of the squads laying points on the highway are 3 ½-point 'chalk' as the likelihood that all five cover is low. Three teams (Ravens, Jets, and Packers) made the postseason last year while the other two (Lions and Cardinals) are rarities when it comes to being road favorites. We'll start with that surprising Detroit club, who goes for a 3-0 start.

Lions (-3½, 45) at Vikings

Detroit is favored on the road for the first time since an opening week loss at Atlanta in 2008. The Lions have started 2-0 in three other instances since 2000, but lost each time in the third game as they head to Minneapolis to battle the 0-2 Vikings. Minnesota squandered a 17-0 advantage in last week's home loss to Tampa Bay, the second straight week the Vikings have blown a lead heading into the final quarter.

The Lions have dropped 12 straight meetings at the Metrodome with the last win coming in 1997. Jim Schwartz's team is riding a three-game road winning streak since last December, but Detroit is 1-19 SU the last 20 divisional road contests. Minnesota was listed as a home 'dog twice last season against the Giants and Bears, as each loss came outside of the Metrodome after the roof fell apart in December.

Jets (-3½, 41) at Raiders

New York begins a three-game road trip following victories over Dallas and Jacksonville as the Jets visit the Black Hole to battle the Raiders. Oakland blew a 21-3 lead in last Sunday's 38-35 defeat at Buffalo, but the Raiders managed to cash for the second straight week on the highway. The Jets picked up their seventh win in their last nine at home with a 32-3 trouncing of the Jaguars as nine-point favorites.

Rex Ryan's team has taken care of business as a road favorite in his short tenure with a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark. This is an important game for the Jets as they head to Baltimore and New England in the following two weeks, while Oakland is starting a stretch with five of the next six games at home. The Raiders are just 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 home games against non-division opponents, while the 'over' has cashed six times.

Ravens (-3½, 41½) at Rams

Baltimore looks to put last week's shocking loss at Tennessee behind them as the Ravens head to St. Louis for a non-conference matchup with the Rams. Steve Spagnuolo's offense has struggled by putting up just 22 points since Steven Jackson's touchdown four minutes into the season-opening loss to the Eagles. The Rams are in the midst of a stretch that can turn disastrous with Washington, Green Bay, Dallas, and New Orleans coming up after Baltimore.

John Harbaugh's team has done a solid job on the road off a loss by compiling a 7-2 SU/ATS mark since 2008, including a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record as a favorite. The Rams are not in a great spot off the defeat to the Giants, as home teams off a Monday night loss are 4-9 ATS since the start of last season, including ATS defeats by the Dolphins and Broncos in Week 2.

Packers (-3½, 45½) at Bears

A rematch of the NFC Championship takes place at Soldier Field as Chicago looks to avenge a 21-14 loss to Green Bay in January. The Packers' offense has looked sharp in two victories over the Saints and Panthers, even though Green Bay failed to cash as double-digit favorites at Carolina. Chicago hung around at New Orleans for a half, but couldn't slow down the explosive Saints' attack in a 30-13 defeat as 4½-point 'dogs to fall to 1-1 on the season.

The Packers have done well against division foes on the road by compiling a 12-4 ATS record under Mike McCarthy since 2006. However, Green Bay owns a dreadful 0-8 SU mark since November 2007 in the second game of consecutive regular season road contests, coming off the win over Carolina. The Bears own a solid 6-2 ATS ledger in Lovie Smith’s tenure as a home underdog against NFC North foes.

Cardinals (-3½, 43) at Seahawks

It’s tough to think when an early season NFC West game means so much, but Seattle can help itself with a home victory over Arizona. The Seahawks head home to Qwest Field following road losses at San Francisco and Pittsburgh as Pete Carroll’s team has scored just 17 points total in the two defeats. The Cards look to put a tough 22-21 setback at Washington behind them after owning an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter.

These teams have split the last four meetings in Seattle, while Ken Whisenhunt’s club is favored at Qwest Field for just the second time since the Seahawks joined the NFC West in 2002. Seattle owns an 11-6 ATS record the last 17 home games, including consecutive outright ‘dog wins to close out last season against St. Louis and New Orleans.

NFL Week 3

49ers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1) - Since 1988, Week 3 road underdogs who played their first two games at home are 34-22-1 vs spread; 49ers were +4 in turnovers the first two games, and won field position by 16-7 yards- their special teams are improved. Week 3 home favorites who played first two games on road are 15-33 vs spread. Bengals didn't turn ball over (+3) in first two games, starting six drives in enemy territory; since 2007, they're 5-19 as a favorite, since 2008, 1-9 as home favorite. Cincy is 11-18 coming off a loss; since '06, they're 7-13-1 as favorite of 3 or less points. Niners were 12-4-2 vs spread coming off a loss uner Singletary; they're 3-11 in last 14 games decided by 7 or less points, 1-8-1 in last 10 games as an underdog of 3 or less points.

Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0) - New England is 20-1 in last 21 series games, with seven straight wins here by an average score of 30-8; Bills scored 10 points or less in seven of last nine series games, but this Buffalo team has started season on a roll, scoring 79 points (10 TDs on 24 drives, eight TDs, two FGs in 10 red zone trips). Patriots have nine TDs on 21 drives, six of which were 78+ yards; they've covered 23 of last 31 as a single digit favorite, are 27-13 in last 40 games as a road favorite. Belichick is 45-18-1 vs spread in his last 64 games on foreign soil. Since '03, home dogs are 20-27 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Since '08, Buffalo is 2-8-1 as a home dog; they're 1-5 vs spread in last six home games vs divisional rivals. Huge game for Buffalo's credibility.

Texans (2-0) @ Saints (1-1) - Houston is much-improved, with good balance on offense (305 rushing yards, 424 passing) and solid defense (allowed 5.1/4.8 ypa), but will be sorely tested by Saints squad that covered nine of last 12 vs AFC teams, and is 12-8-1 in last 21 games as single digit favorite. Brees got the first down on 17 of 31 3rd down plays so far in '11; Saints are 9-4 last thirteen games decided by 7 or less points. Houston is 13-18-1 in last 32 games as road dog, 4-8-1 coming off win, 10-15-3 vs NFC teams. Phillips' defense has allowed only five first downs on 21 3rd down plays; he used to work for Saints when his dad was their coach. Home side won both series games, with Texans losing 31-10 here in '03. Dare I say potential Super Bowl matchup?

Giants (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1) - Health of Vick key issue here; as I type this, he is expected to play. Philly won last six series games, with average total in last four 63.3. Giants lost last two visits here 40-17/27-17- they were dumped from playoff contention LY by big Eagle comeback highlighted by Jackson’s PR for TD. Philly is just 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as divisional home favorites (10-1 in non-division); since ’07, they’re 15-9 coming off a loss. Giants are 24-15 coming off a win, 25-16 in last 41 road games, but they’re 3-5 in last eight games as road dog and lost at Washington in road opener two weeks ago. Big Blue has been outscored 24-7 in second half this year, has converted just 6-25 on 3rd down but they do have four TDs in five red zone trips. Eagles have nine sacks in two games; four of six TDs they allowed came on drives shorter than 50 yards; this is their first home game- Week 3 home favorites that played first two games on road are 15-33 vs spread.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Browns (1-1) - Miami defense allowed Brady/Schaub to complete 68.8% of passes in pair of home losses, now major drop down in class vs McCoy; Fish have only four TDs, two FGs in 10 red zone drives, need more production there. Dolphins are 17-7 vs spread on road under Sparano, 18-8-2 as road dog, 8-5 as dog of 3 or less points. Since ’04, fish are 21-9-1 as road dog in non-divisional games, but they’re also 19-32-1 since ’05 when coming off a loss. Since 2008, Browns are 10-15 vs spread at home, 2-7 when favored; they’re 9-14 in games decided by 7 or less points (Miami is 17-10). Cleveland is 13-9 as favorite of 3 or less points, 14-8 coming off win. In two games so far, Browns have 14 penalties for 121 yards, their opponents 7 for 43. Since 1988 (excluding 2001) Week 3 road underdogs that played first two games at home are 34-22-1 vs spread. Miami lost last three series games, losing two visits here, 22-0/41-31, with last visit in ’07.

Broncos (1-1) @ Titans (1-1) - Surprising that Tennessee holding its own so far despite running ball 42 times for 117 only yards; you expect more from team with Johnson at RB and former star lineman as head coach. Titans allowed only two TDs on 21 drives so far, with no TDs allowed in second half; they’ve allowed only three FGs in three red zone drives in splitting games with Jags/Ravens. Titans are 7-12 in last 19 games as non-divisional home favorite, 2-6 in last eight games as single digit fave, but they’re 23-18-1 coming off a win. Denver allowed 23-22 points in splitting pair of home games despite foes converting just 6-25 on 3rd down; Broncos are 9-15 as road dog, 11-23-1 coming off win; since ’07, they’re 12-20 vs spread on road.. Denver won five of last six series games, with last loss in ’95 to Oilers in Houston; Broncos won two visits here, 37-16/26-20. Average total in last 10 games between these old AFL rivals is 52.7. Week 3 road underdogs that played first two games at home are 34-22-1 vs spread.

Lions (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2) - Upstart Lions battling historical demons here, having lost 13 in row at this site, with five of last six losses here by 9+ points; they’re 3-20 in last 23 series games overall. Since 1997, Detroit is 0-7 as road favorite, with last cover coming in Tampa in ’96 under Wayne Fontes, but Vikings are 9-15-2 in last 26 games as underdog, 2-7 in last nine as home dog. Lions have nine TDs on 25 drives; Stafford has thrown 73 passes and hasn’t been sacked yet. Detroit has now won last six games that counted, covering six in row coming off win and last four when favored- they’re already +6 in turnovers, with 8 takeaways in two games. Minnesota led Bucs 17-0 at half in home opener last week, lost 24-20; they’ve been outscored 41-3 in second half of first two games- opponents converted 13 of 25 on 3rd down. Vikings have been penalized 143 yards in two games, almost twice as much (79) as their opponents. Since ’05, Minnesota is 15-26-3 as single digit dog.

Jaguars (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2) - Carolina has 807 passing yards, 145 running as rookie QB Newton has done unexpectedly well, with all five TD drives 74+ yards, but defense allowed Kolb/Rodgers 10.2/9.5 ypa-- McCown will be less formidable a foe here. Jaguars scored only one offensive TD on 22 drives so far in 2011, despite outrushing foes 275-144- they've been outscored 31-6 in 2nd half of games. Panthers are 11-6-2 in last 19 games as favorite, 18-7 in last 25 games coming off a win, but the last 8+ years, they're 26-36-3 vs spread at home. Last 7+ years, Jaguars are 19-10-1 as road dog, but they're 9-16 coming off a loss. Home side won three of last four series games, with last two played here decided by total of 3 points. Average total in last three series games, 44.

Jets (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1) - Oakland blew 21-3 halftime lead in Buffalo last week, or else they’d be 2-0 heading into home opener; they outscored first two opponents 37-3 in first half, but got outscored 52-21 after halftime, with both games decided by a FG. As usual, Silver/Black have been flagged a lot (216 penalty yards in two games), to point where Jackson is bringing in refs during week to call penalties in practice. Jets have seven takeaways in two games (+3); they’re 6-2 as road favorite under Rex Ryan, and 17-11 in game following their last 28 wins. Gang Green is 23-16 in last 39 road games, 13-10 as a favorite, 11-8 as single digit favorite. Since ’03, Raiders are 21-41-1 vs spread at home, but they’re 6-5 in last 11 games as home dog, after being 9-19-1 from ’03-’08. Oakland is Jets won four of last five series games, winning 38-0 in last visit here two years ago. Last two years, AFC East road favorites are 8-3 vs spread in non-division games.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1) - Slow-starting San Diego trailed first two games by 10-13 points at half, hard to lay 14+ points with unreliable team; they held Minnesota to 28 passing yards in Week 1 and still didn’t cover (won 24-17, -8.5). Kansas City lost first two games 41-7/48-3 to Bills/Lions, going -7 in turnovers, losing field position by 23/21 yards; they’ve allowed 55 points on 10 opponent drives (out of 27) that started in their territory. Last 7+ years, San Diego is 22-10-3 in game following a loss; they were -4 in turnovers in losing winnable game at Foxboro last week. Chargers won six of last seven series games, with Chiefs losing last three visits here by 1-29-31 points (74-14 last two years). Since ’06, Bolts are 5-7 as double digit favorite; Chiefs are 6-8 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 8-3 in last 11 games as double digit dog. San Diego is 11-5-1 in last 17 games as home favorite in a divisional game. Chiefs have nine turnovers (-7) in two games, are just 5-24 on 3rd down.

Ravens (1-1) @ Rams (0-2) - St Louis on short work week after poor showing on Monday night (first MNF game in five years); young players are making critical mistakes causing turnovers- Rams are only team to give up a defensive score in both games this season. Baltimore gave up 358 passing yards in Nashville last week, which gives Bradford hope; St Louis outgained Giants 367-300 Monday, but they’ve lost last 39 games where they lost turnover margin, so mistakes must be eliminated. Ravens are 15-17 in last 32 games decided by 7 or less points- since ’08 they’re 5-4 as a road favorite, after being 0-8 in such role from ’05-’07. Last three years, they’re 9-7 in game following a loss. Home team won last four series games, with Ravens losing last two visits here by 15-11 points. St Louis coaches made poor game management decisions last week, causing loyalists to doubt their competence. Ravens have AFC showdown with Jets on deck, making this a legitimate trap game for them.

Falcons (1-1) @ Buccaneers (1-1) - Atlanta is 17-6 under Smith in games decided by 7 or less points; they’re 14-6-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points, but they’ve allowed 61 points in first two games this year, and would be 0-2 had Vick not been KO’d last Sunday night. Falcons won last five series games, with three of five decided by 4 or less points; Atlanta won last two visits here, 20-10/28-24- average total in their last five visits here is 35.6. Tampa Bay is 3-13-1 vs spread at home under Morris, as road team is 26-6-2 in Morris regime after Bucs rallied to win 24-20 last week at Minnesota, after being down 17-0 at half. Falcons started 16 of 25 drives 80+ yards from goal line; they’ve averaged 5.3/5.6 ypa, in part because Ryan has already been sacked nine times. Tampa has only two TDs, three FGs in seven red zone drives-they’re 18-12 in game following their last 30 wins, Falcons are 12-8 in last 20. Last three years, Bucs are 6-9-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Cardinals (1-1) @ Seahawks (0-2) - Arizona defense allowed 932 yards in first two games to Newton/Grossman, but they’ve only allowed three TDs, three FGs in nine red zone trips- all five TDs they’ve allowed have been on drives of 73+ yards. Seattle won both series games LY, 22-10/36-18, first time in three years they beat Arizona here, but QB tables have been turned, with Arizona now having far superior signal-caller (Kolb over Jackson). Seahawks lost first two games 33-17/24-0, getting outscored 33-0 in first half, giving up 10 sacks while running ball 35 times for 95 yards (2.7) so OL is big concern, especially with Gallery out. Last 3+ years, Seattle is 4-7 in games decided by 7 or less points, Arizona 10-8. Redbirds are 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite. Since 1988, Week 3 home underdogs who played first two games on road are 5-11 vs spread. Last 4+ years, home underdogs are 8-12 vs spread in NFC West divisional games.

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1) - Over last seven years, Chicago is 6-1 vs spread as home underdog in divisional games, but Green Bay won four of last five in this ancient rivalry, with average total in last six meetings 32.2; Pack won two of last three visits here, including win eight months ago in NFC title game. Pack scored 72 points in first two games (eight TDs on 19 drives, only one less than 76 yards), but they’ve also given up 800 passing yards in two games (Brees/Newton). Over last 3+ years, Packers are just 8-16 in games decided by 7 or less points- over last 5+ years, they’re 26-13-1 vs spread in last 40 road games. Since ’05, Chicago is 10-6 as home underdog; Packers are 14-10-1 in last 25 games as road favorite. Vutler has been sacked 11 times in two games, as loss of C Kreutz (to Saints) takes its toll on Bears’ OL; they’ve gone 3-out on 13 of 25 drives, converting only 8 of 28 on 3rd down, which has hurt their field position (-2/-12 in two games).

Steelers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2) - Pittsburgh won 14 of last 17 games in seldom-played (recently) series, splitting four visits to Indy. This is only fifth time teams have met since ’98, Manning’s rookie year. Steelers don’t have takeaway yet (-7); they’ve gone 3-out on nine of 19 drives as Roethlisberger still appears hampered by offseason foot injury. Of Pitt’s four TDs this year, only one was a drive longer than 68 yards. Dreadful Indy has two TDs, nine 3-outs on 22 drives with newly-signed Collins (35-69) at QB; they’re just 5-23 on 3rd down, have lost field position by 5-20 yards in losses by 27-9 points. Colts have only two TDs, two FGs in six red zone drives. Steelers are 19-22 vs spread on road last 5+ years, 11-16 in last 27 games as road favorite, 5-12 as non-divisional road fave, 21-25-1 in game following a win. Since 2002, Pittsburgh is 6-13 as double digit favorite. Colts are 7-17 vs spread in game following their last 24 losses.

Redskins (2-0) @ Cowboys (1-1) - Romo showed major guts in leading comeback win last week with busted rib/punctured lung, now he faces rival Redskins in Dallas home opener. Since 2004, Dallas is 4-12-1 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games. Cowboys won four of last five in series, with three of four wins by 4 or less points. Redskins lost four of last five visits to this site, with only one loss by more than five points. Four of last five series totals were 24 or less. Dallas is 9-12 in last 21 games as home favorites; they’re 9-7 in games following a win. Redskin defense allowed only 4-19 conversions on 3rd down, as Washington won field position in both wins, by 7-8 yards; they’ve got seven sacks and had defensive TD that put them ahead against Giants. Since 1988, Week 3 home favorites who played on road first two weeks are 15-33 vs spread; Week 3 road underdogs who played first two games at home are 34-22-1. One-dimensional Cowboys have 753 passing yards, only 109 on the ground.

Week 3 Line Moves
By Micah Roberts

Who would have ever thought that the NFL’s feature game of Week 3 would be the mighty New England Patriots visiting the upstart Buffalo Bills. If you had looked at the M Resort’s Week 3 odds a few months ago, picking this game with the Patriots being nine-point favorites wouldn’t have entered anyone’s mind as being the only game this week to match two undefeated teams against each other.

Despite the Bills piling up 79 points in the first two games, the market price when most Las Vegas sports books opened the game Monday was still Patriots -9, the same line it was before we knew what the Bills had in store offensively for the 2011 season. The Patriots are every bit as good -- maybe better -- than we anticipated, so why -9?

It didn’t take long for sharp money to answer those questions with cash, because they took the Bills at +9, +8½,+8, and +7½. Despite all the straight bets on Buffalo, most books will still be rooting the Bills in this one because the public loves New England.

“We’ve got a lot of action on the Bills,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, “and you would think that we would be needing the Patriots, but the public money is so overwhelming on the parlays and teasers with the Patriots that I will probably be rooting for the sharp side to win for the book’s best interest.“

The Patriots are one of many very popular public sides this week. In fact, this is the weighted public opinion week of the three weeks. The public has seen two games from each team and feel they have a good read on who will do well, and who won’t, and have bet accordingly.

There are 10 games this week where the ticket counts on a certain side are weighted at a 7-to-3 ratio or higher. In each of the first two weeks of NFL action, there were 10 games combined that had that kind of weight.

Needless to say, if seven or eight of those games come in, it’s going to be a rough day for the books. If the sports books can split those games, they’ll do well.

Here’s a look at the most weighted public games:

The top two teams that link almost everyone’s parlays are the Packers (-4) at Chicago and the Ravens (-4) at St. Louis, two teams that let the public down considerably last week by not covering.

In addition to the Patriots, they also love the Saints laying four points at home against the Texans, the Lions laying three at Minnesota, The Chargers laying two touchdowns at home to Kansas City, the Jets (-3) at Oakland and the Cardinals (-3½) at Seattle.

The Steelers (-10½) are also popular choices at Indianapolis along with Washington (+6) at Dallas in the two isolated games under the lights.

It’s not surprising that of the 10 games, nine of them are favorites. The one underdog finding support is the Redskins. Between having Tony Romo’s ribs banged up and his two starting wide receivers being very ‘questionable’ or ‘out,’ the public has found all the reason in the world to back the 2-0 Redskins led by the appearance of a vastly improved Rex Grossman at quarterback.

Other than the New England game, there hasn’t been too much movement on the week. Most sports books react only to large straight bets when moving the line. In this week’s case, with so many books getting one-sided action, it could be that they are waiting for the risk to mount and force the book to move and get an extra half-point on a game by kickoff.

The games the sharps have shown their hand on already are the Bills, Raiders, Seahawks and Colts.

NFL Week 3's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Scott Cooley

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 48.5)

Giants pass defense vs. Eagles pass offense

Why Antrel Rolle opened his mouth this week is anybody’s guess. He said he didn’t want to hear excuses after the Giants “put it to” the Eagles.

“A lot of times when people talk, they’re either insecure or scared,” Jeremy Maclin retorted.

Rolle should be frightened by the possibility of Philly throwing all over him and the decimated New York secondary. That unit allowed Rex Grossman to pass for 305 yards in Week 1, and Sam Bradford put up 331 yards Monday night.

Starting corner Aaron Ross was abused so badly by the Rams' third receiver, Danario Alexander, he was benched midway through the game. Tom Coughlin put in Michael Coe and he promptly gave up a touchdown to Alexander.

“It was an attempt to find a solution to one of the problems we were having,” said Coughlin.

Mike Vick has been cleared, but even with Mike Kafka the Eagles would have a big passing day. Heck, Jim Harbaugh could throw on this secondary right now.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 42)

Broncos rush defense vs. Chris Johnson/Javon Ringer

Chris Johnson can finally earn some of that $56-million contract he signed earlier this month, which should easily cover the cost of gold-plating all his teeth and possibly his fingernails.

The Broncos were awful against the run last year, allowing more than 150 yards per game. John Fox switched to a 4-3 defensive scheme but that hasn’t helped. Denver was gashed for 190 rushing yards in Week 1, including 150 from Darren McFadden.

The size of the front four is tiny compared to most defenses. And the ends haven’t showed good discipline containing the perimeter.

Johnson loves to bounce to the outside and turn the corner. And because Matt Hasselbeck has been throwing the ball efficiently, running lanes should open in the trenches.

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40.5)

Niners pass defense vs. Bengals pass offense

The 49ers have plenty of shortcomings but the gaping hole is the secondary. A brain fart by that group cost San Francisco the game in overtime last week.

Dallas torched the Niners secondary for 427 yards through the air. Shawntae Spencer and Dashon Goldson could return this week, which would help, but how healthy will they be?

Andy Dalton and the Bengals' young receiving corps are underrated. Dalton isn’t chucking many deep balls but he’s showed composure against the speed of the NFL and his short passes are on point.

A.J. Green broke out with 10 catches and 124 yards against Denver last week; he’s a superstar in the making. And you can bet Jerome Simpson will be playing this game like it’s his last, because it might be after police found six pounds of the sticky icky in his house.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (3.5, 46)

Packers pass rush vs. Bears offensive line

The blueprint to beat the Bears is the same as it was last season: Penetrate the offensive line and force Jay Cutler into mistakes.

In Week 1, the Falcons sacked Cutler four times. Last Sunday, a Saints front seven that looked questionable at Green Bay recorded six sacks, 15 knockdowns and 19 hits on Cutler.

You know Cutler doesn’t have time to throw when Matt Forte has been targeted more than any receiver through two games. And the O-line will be even more vulnerable this week because right tackle Gabe Carimi is out with a dislocated knee.

In three meetings against Chicago last year, the Packers posted 11 sacks and 20 quarterback hits. Cutler is 1-5 all-time against Green Bay with 10 interceptions and five touchdowns.

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David

Week 2 Recap

If you’re a gambler that likes to be ‘over’ tickets then you’ve been doing well this NFL season. The ‘over’ went 10-5-1 (67%) in Week 2 and that was after the sportsbooks made healthy adjustments from the opening weekend to offset the action from the betting public. Guess what? It didn’t matter and once again, the books have made even more tweaks, perhaps too many for Week 3.

We had six totals in Week 1 close at 39 points or less and that number was split in half last weekend to three. For Week 3, it appears that the Steelers-Colts (39.5) matchup could fit in this situation, which is the only one. Then again, that battle will be the primetime affair on Sunday and all total players should be aware that every game under the lights has gone ‘over’ this season.

After two weeks of action, the ‘over’ has gone 21-8-3 (72%) on the season.

What’s the reason behind the shootouts?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Lee Kostroski and his ASA stable of experts are still trying to answer that question. He said, “While we can't say for sure it may have to do with the lockout and the shorter prep time along with conditioning for the players and coaches. Could it be the rule changes regarding defensive back and less hitting in practices?”

“ One thing for sure is that passing, league wide, is certainly up this year as teams are averaging 246.4 yards per game passing in the first two weeks compared to the 2010 average of 221.3 YPG. On average the league is completing a combined 27.2 more passes per week this season compared to 2010.”

“It's been said the NFL is turning into a pass-first league and the numbers from the first two weeks certainly support that thinking. In 2010 the percentage of pass plays called by offensive coordinators was 57% per game. This year that number has trended up to 59%. On average teams are running 63 plays per game thus far this season which is the exact average of 2010. It's interesting to note that 12 teams are averaging over 6.0 yards per play this season compared to only three teams finishing above that number last season. “

“Explosive plays are clearly contributing to the higher scoring games too as teams are converting points inside the Red Zone just 48% of the time this season compared to 53% all of last season.”

Bad Beats

Whether you win or you lose, you should always grade the outcomes, especially if you’re betting every football weekend. Watching the DirecTV shortcuts on Monday and Tuesday is a great way to handicap, but even looking at a box score will tell you so much more than the final.

Gamblers, particularly ‘under’ bettors who took the following games witnessed some crazy finishes and tough losses.

Oakland-Buffalo: Scoreless after 15 minutes, 73 the rest of the way, including 35 in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay-Carolina: A conservative 13-7 score at half turns out to be a 30-23 final. And the Packers kicked three field goals in one quarter.

Cleveland-Indianapolis: Probably the toughest one to swallow if you had the ‘under’ here. Seventeen points in the last four minutes. Ouch!

Dallas-San Francisco: Another 0-0 score after the first quarter. Still, 30 points in the second help the cause.

San Diego-New England and Philadelphia-Atlanta: Playing the ‘under’ on these games is always tough due to the prolific attacks involved and bettors witnessed that. The Pats and Bolts combined for 29 in the fourth, while the Battle of the Birds saw a 42-spot posted.

Total players chasing their bets at the break watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 in the second-half of Week 2.

Divisional Trends

New England at Buffalo: If you’re looking to fade an inflated number, then this is the game for you. The total opened at 51, and has spiked to 54 at some shops. That’s ridiculous. Even when the Patriots were blasting people during their undefeated season that fell short in the Super Bowl, the totals would rarely be over 50 points. The Bills have come out firing with 41 and 38 in their first two weeks, but will that last? Does Buffalo really think it can beat New England in a shootout? Considering the Bills have posted 3, 10, 0, 10 and 6 in their last five home encounters against the Pats, maybe a high-scoring outcome could help their chances.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, but make a note that the Giants have posted 17 points in each of their last two trips to Philadelphia. And despite putting up 28 last Monday, the defense added seven points. However, the Rams scored four times (3 FGs) and definitely left points off the board.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions and Vikings have watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight meetings. During that span, Detroit has cracked 20 points once. Vikings’ offense looks lethargic, which has hurt a defense (24 PPG) that was once dominant.

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chiefs have scored 10 total points in two games, yet the ‘over’ has cashed in each affair. That’s because your defense has allowed 89 points. Number started high (45) but is slowly creeping down. The ‘under’ went 2-0 between the pair in 2010.

Arizona at Seattle: For the past three seasons, the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 in this head-to-head series. Does that mean you pass and do the opposite of the second encounter? Make a note that Seattle has score no points in the first half through two games.

Green Bay at Chicago: Seven straight ‘under’ tickets in this series, yet we have a total hovering around 45 points.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Both battles went ‘over’ last year, which snapped a four-game ‘under’ run in the series. Bucs have watched both of their games go ‘over’ this season.

Washington at Dallas: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, including a split last season. Last year, the Cowboys saw all eight of their home games go ‘over’ the number, which included a 33-30 shootout against the ‘Skins.

Primetime Cash

As mentioned above, every game played under the lights this season has gone ‘over’ the number, which is surprising since these contests are always shaded higher due to the late push from the betting public. Some bettors may’ve had the Giants-Rams ‘over/under’ at 44 last Monday, while others could’ve shopped for the hook in either direction and pulled the quick middle between 43½ and 44½ points.

This week, we have two more games and something tells us that the streak could end here.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: The Steelers’ offense hasn’t looked sharp in terms of points but they are putting up the yards. Quarterback Kerry Collins will get better with Indy as the season progresses but it’s hard to see him mustering up anything special against Pitt’s defense on SNF.

Washington at Dallas: (See above)

Fearless Predictions

Perhaps we should’ve waited another week to hop back on the gridiron. We put up a 1-3 spot last Sunday, losing all three of our straight plays and barely cashing the teaser. With all bets based on one-unit, the deficit stands at minus $230.

Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-New Orleans 52

Best Under: San Francisco-Cincinnati 40.5

Best Team Total: Rams Over 19.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Houston-New Orleans 43
Over Baltimore-St. Louis 33
Under San Francisco-Cincinnati 49.5

NFL Week 3 Over/Under Picks
By Ryan Stetson

Once upon a time, key duties on an NFL rookie quarterback’s resume included Gatorade chemist, clipboard manager and bubble gum dispensary.

Sure, there were exceptions to the rule along the way. Peyton Manning took hits and threw picks in all 16 games as a rook back in 1998, don’t forget, but that was different. He was the Peyton Manning - the same guy who told Colts owner Jim Irsay that he’d kick his team’s ass for the next 15 years if he didn’t draft him first overall.

In the vast majority of cases, being a freshman quarterback entitled you to at least 16 games of sideline skirt gawking while you got your footing in the league.

Well, the times they are a-changin’.

No fewer than three rookie QBs are scheduled to start this week as their respective teams hope to fast forward the dreaded “rebuilding phase,” firing their freshmen into the fire to see if they can stand the heat.

So far the results have been good. Andy Dalton is turning a few heads on another terrible Bengals team, and of course, Cam Newton has put up Techmo Bowl numbers in his first two starts with the Panthers.

Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars hope Blaine Gabbert can do the same when they hook up with the Panthers in the Rookie Bowl Sunday (no pressure, right?).

Personally, I’m all for this new idea of letting the kids play if they can actually play instead of wasting a couple productive years because of veteran loyalty (here’s to you, Aaron Rogers).

The football world, through training development and better coaching and scouting, has accelerated to the point that some of these young players belong in the NFL game as soon as they get out of college.

But as usual in the NFL, everybody wants what they can’t have and they’re willing to copycat anything they see if it’ll mean more wins (and dollars) for them. It’s all a big pissing contests of the Joneses.

I’m not saying that’s what is going on in Jacksonville this week with Gabbert getting the call, but I don’t think he’s nearly as ready as Newton was – take that for what it’s worth. Really, if dollars weren’t the deciding factor we wouldn’t be having this conversation anyway as David Garrard took the snaps for the Jags.

I guess we’ll find out Sunday whether the future really is now.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42.5)

The one word you hear around the league describing Gabbert is “raw.”

We all know he’s a big, strong, mobile kid that certainly has the skill set to be a solid NFL quarterback. His teammates say they love his confidence and intensity and are impressed with his pocket presence, speed and arm strength.

Translation: he’s a baller.

That’s why I can’t wait for this game. The two top quarterbacks out of the draft going shot-for-shot in a game that will mean more to each of them than they’ll ever admit.

It’s going to be messy at some points to be sure, but that’s part of the reason I like the over here. Neither of these teams is going to rein in these two studs and I think we’ll see some big plays from offense, defense and special teams.

Pick: Over

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7, 42)

I wasn’t so sure about Matt Hasselbeck with the Titans originally. Show’s what I know.

He’s leading this team with the veteran presence it needs and is just coming off a 358-yard day against the Baltimore Ravens in last weekend’s upset. The 35-year-old knows it’s important to get everybody involved when you’re joining a new team and has two legit receiving weapons in Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. Plus, you have to think Chris Johnson has to be just about ready to come out of his lockout fog.

Meanwhile, despite last weekend’s win, this Denver team is bullocks. The upside for over bettors is that the Broncos will have to keep throwing since they’ll probably be down by a couple of majors by halftime.

Pick: Over

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (3, 43)

No idea where the points are going to come from in this one. Seattle was just blanked by Pittsburgh and there seems like there is no end to Tarvaris Jackson’s downward spiral.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals look pretty saucy on paper with their three-headed offensive monster led by Kevin Kolb, Beanie Wells, and Larry Fitzgerald, but so far that hasn’t materialized into much. Last week the Cardinals were outgained by more than 130 yards in their squeaker loss to the Redskins.
As ugly as this one might be, it’s a huge divisional game with both clubs still trying to work their offensive kinks out.

Pick: Under

NFL Betting Weather Report: Week 3

Your NFL handicapping isn’t done until you look to the skies. Here’s how weather will be impacting your NFL bets in Week 3:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7, 53.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Ralph Wilson Stadium when the Bills test their 2-0 record versus the Patriots. Clouds are expected to move in after kickoff and soak this AFC East rivalry in the latter part of the game. There’s a 33 percent chances of showers for Orchard Park.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42.5)

There’s a 25 percent chance of showers in Carolina Sunday. The Panthers have climbed from -3 to as high as -4 and the total is also on the rise, going from 41 points to 43 at some books.

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 40.5)

Rain could hit Cincinnati Sunday, with a 25 percent chance of the wet stuff at Paul Brown Stadium. The total for this NFC-AFC clash has remained steady between 40.5 and 41 at most markets.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 41.5)

Ohio’s other team is in for some bad weather as well. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Cleveland Sunday, with early showers turning the thunder and lightning later in the game. There’s a 38 percent chance of showers.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48)

This NFC East grudge match will be wet and wild, which could slow down the speedy Eagles offense. Showers at kickoff will give way to possible thunderstorms, with a 60 percent chance of showers for Lincoln Financial Field.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 42.5)

Early rain showers could give way to possible thunderstorms by halftime in Nashville Sunday. There’s a 25 percent chance of rain and winds reaching into the mid teens, blowing South downfield.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 41.5)

There’s a 25 percent chance of rain in the Bay Area for Sunday. Rain will dampen the majority of this game, giving way to cloudy skies late in the fourth quarter. The total for this matchup has dropped from 42 to 41.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 45.5)

This NFC North rivalry could be battling in the rain at Soldier Field Sunday. There’s a 70 percent chance of rain and possible thunderstorms for Chicago, including game-time temperatures in the low 60s.