NFL Preseason Primer: Sunday Game Betting Breakdown
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
A look from the bettor's perspective of Sunday's NFL preseason game.
Indianapolis at NY Giants (-1.5, 40.5)
The Colts are a team a lot of people are calling for to "regress" this season and they definitely got off to an auspicious start to the preseason, losing last week at home to Buffalo 44-20. The poor performance caused owner Jim Irsay to take to Twitter to "rip" the team. Their starters didn't play much, with QB Andrew Luck in for only two series. Reportedly, the first team offense will be in for a significantly longer amount of time here. Special teams coverage was a major issue last week, most notably allowing a 107-yd kick return for a TD.
The Giants won a pretty ugly game last week, 18-13 in Pittsburgh. The highlight was a 57-yard TD pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz. Head coach Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Giants in the preseason.
Betting Notebook - Colts at Giants
Vegasinsider.com
Preseason Trends
The ‘over’ went 12-5 in the first two weeks of the preseason but the trend has tempered a little bit this weekend with the ‘over’ going 7-6-1 in the first 14 games.
The theme in Week 2 has been about the home team, who have produced a 12-2 straight up record. and 10-4 against the spread mark. The 49ers’ 15-13 victory over the Chiefs on Friday and the Packers’ 19-7 win at St. Louis on Saturday were the two wins from road teams.
Seven of the 14 games played this week have been decided by five points or less.
Indianapolis at New York Giants
Week 1 Notes
Indianapolis (0-1) - The Colts lost to the Bills 44-20 as 4 ½-point home favorites
New York (1-0) – The Giants beat the Steelers 18-13 as 2 ½-point road underdogs
Expected QB Rotation
Indianapolis – Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
New York – Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (Rookie-Syracuse)
Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)
Indianapolis (0-3)
New York (2-1)
Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)
Chuck Pagano (2-3)
Pagano is 0-2 in his first two road games in the preseason
Tom Coughlin (19-18 with Giants)
Coughlin has never produced a preseason record better than 2-2 since 2006.
Off the Wire
Indianapolis
After last week’s 24-point loss at home to the Bills, owner Jim Irsay tweeted his feelings on Twitter. He wrote, “Many starters played briefly or were nursing little injuries,but it was a crap performance,my apologies/My commanders got n earful from me!”
QB Andrew Luck only played two series (10 plays) last week and is expected to see 25-30 snaps on Sunday. Veteran Matt Hasselbeck will follow while Northern Illinois product Chandler Harnish will finish off the game.
Former New York Giants running back, Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), will not be in the lineup for Indianapolis on Sunday. Backups Vick Ballard, Donald Brown and Delone Carter are expected to carry the ground game.
TE Coby Fleener (doubtful) is also expected to miss action for the Colts.
The Colts went 2-2 in preseason action last year but where just 5-25 from 2005 to 2011.
New York
Head coach Tom Coughlin plans to give quarterback Eli Manning about 20 plays and follow with backup David Carr and rookie Ryan Nassib. Veteran Curtis Painter, a former Colt, will not play until next week when Carr sits.
Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who missed the preseason opener, is expected back on the field and first-round draft pick and tackle Justin Pugh will play after missing the preseason opener with a concussion.
Defensive end Justin Tuck, who missed the Steelers game with a tight back, is expected to play. Safety Antrel Rolle sprained his right ankle in practice and will be replaced by Ryan Mundy.
Handicapping Notes
New York hasn’t won back-to-back preseason games in the last three years
The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine preseason games
The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 under Pagano
Line Analysis
The Giants opened as 2½-point favorites at most Las Vegas betting shops but that number has dropped to 1½ or 1 as of Sunday morning.
The total is hovering between 40 and 41 in Las Vegas and the offshore outfits.
Colts at Giants: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv
The only chance we have to offer NFL picks for today is on this evening’s matchup in the Meadowlands as the Indianapolis Colts travel to face the New York Giants in a nationally televised preseason clash.
The Giants are just one year removed from a Super Bowl victory, while the Colts did a quick rebuilding job last season to reach the postseason. According to Bovada that means New York rates as just a -1.5 home favorite with a total of 40.5.
Last weekend, the Giants traveled to Pittsburgh and won a hard-fought 18-15 battle against the Steelers, while the Colts were jolted at home, 44-20, by rookie E.J. Manuel and the Buffalo Bills.
The fact that the Over was easily reached in the Indy game shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to sharp sports handicappers. After all, over the past two decades, the Colts have gone past the listed number in 29 of the 42 games the team has played when in the role of an underdog.
When they have been a road dog, the winning percentage for the Over in Colts games is virtually the same, with 22 winners in 32 games. Hitting the road off an Over in a home game has also been a recipe for lots of scoring, with a 16-6 nod to the Over.
More recently, Indianapolis has been one of the easier NFL picks during the preseason when it comes to totals in a road game. In the team’s past six trips away from Lucas Oil Stadium, the team has gone Over the number five times, including the last three in a row.
New York has its contributions to offer when making the case for the Over, with a 7-3 record for going above the number in the team’s first home preseason contest. When the team has hosted a game in Week 2 since 2008, the team has gone Over in each of the three games.
The final bit of sports handicapping finesse to offer is of the double-barreled kind, since both teams are in position to continue positive trends for the Over. For the Colts, it’s the fact that over the past five years, NFL teams that have gone Over in Week 1 and go on the road for the next matchup, have a 20-9-1 record favoring the Over. For the Giants, teams that went under the number and then compete at home for the first time, have a 20-8 mark for the Over since 2008.
The hapahazard nature of preseason contests guarantees the sports handicapping world nothing, but we feel confident that this offering of our free football picks is a strong one, so
Play Indianapolis-New York Giants Over 40.5