NFL Preseason Point Spreads and Picks
By: Craig Williams
Sportingnews.com
The NFL's preseason, this long, snaking line in which we wait for the regular-season roller coaster, is just about over.
The final two games of consequence come Sunday, with the 49ers hosting the Chargers and the Bengals visiting the Cardinals. These are the NFL's final major tune-ups.
Yes, every NFL club plays one more exhibition on Thursday, but all 16 games are shoehorned into one night. This is just a way for the NFL to give every team two exhibition contests at home. It is your season-ticket money at work for owners who don't need more of it.
But enough about that. Let's talk about Sunday's games, which are actually quite interesting:
San Diego at San Francisco (-6, 41.5,)
In two preseason games, the 49ers have been outscored 57-3, and they are on a two-game exhibition losing streak for the first time under coach Jim Harbaugh. Incredibly, the Niners have not scored since quarterback Colin Kaepernick led the club to a field goal on their first series of the preseason.
Kaepernick will likely play extended snaps for the only time all summer on Sunday, which could help the Niners snap out of the doldrums. Also, the 49ers are 2-1 in third preseason games in Harbaugh's tenure.
Nevertheless, the 49ers haven't exactly inspired much confidence in the exhibition season. Making matters worse, Levi's Stadium has already had to be re-sodded because of footing concerns. All things considered, can the 49ers really be counted upon to deliver a strong performance?
The Chargers are a tricky read, too, with a blowout win vs. Dallas and a lopsided loss at Seattle on their summer ledger. Quarterback Philip Rivers figures to get double-digit passing attempts for the first time in the exhibition season. He draws a San Francisco defense that's been horrible on third downs thus far, allowing 19-of-32 conversions in two games.
These teams annually meet in the preseason, and the 49ers have had the Chargers' number in recent years, winning the last four exhibitions. However, the meetings usually occur in the final preseason game, not in the penultimate one. The teams haven't met earlier than the final week of the exhibition slate since 2001.
According to multiple line-movement websites, the 49ers opened as six-point favorites throughout Nevada, and nothing has changed since.
The Linemakers' lean: It looks like Jim Harbough, 8-4 ATS in the preseason coming into this season, couldn't care less about these games anymore. Both teams look like they want to play slow, stay healthy, rely on the defense, and get the game over as quickly as possible. We're siding with the UNDER.
Cincinnati at Arizona (-2.5, 43)
Those who have banked on the Bengals in next-to-last preseason games under Marvin Lewis are deep in the red. Since 2003, the Bengals are just 2-9 straight-up in these dress rehearsals.
While the Bengals are winless in the preseason, quarterback Andy Dalton has been sharp, completing 11-of-13 passes for 215 yards and one TD in limited action. Wideout A.J. Green (five catches, 131 yards) is also in good form.
The Cardinals (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS in the preseason) have to be pleased with the play of their starting quarterback, too, with Carson Palmer off to a solid start (9-of-13, 175 yards, one TD). The Cards have been outstanding on third downs, moving the chains 18-of-32 times (56.3 percent).
Arizona is 5-1 against the number in exhibition play in Bruce Arians' time as head coach, including a 2-0 mark in 2014. Cincinnati, for the record, is 23-22-2 ATS in preseason games under Lewis (51.1 percent). The Bengals, who have covered at least once in each of the last 11 preseasons, are 0-1-1 ATS in 2014.
The Cardinals opened as two-point favorites at the South Point, but the line has gone up a half-point, according to VegasInsider.com line movement records.
The Linemakers' lean: Andy Dalton is the key. He's looking good as the season approaches, but the quarterbacks that will follow aren't impressive. The Cardinals on the other hand will trot out better backups once Carson Palmer exits for the night. Lay the points with the Cardinals here.
Sunday's Tip Sheet
VegasInsider.com
Week 3 of the NFL preseason comes to a close on Sunday with a pair of televised matchups. These games are often called the “dress rehearsal” matchups for both teams as coaches play their starters for the majority of the first-half and sometimes into the final two quarters as well.
Oddsmakers have made both home teams favorites and that shouldn’t be surprising considering the trend in this year’s preseason. Through the first 36 games, the home team has produced a 31-15 record and that number could be even better but the visitors showed some fight on Saturday with a 6-2 mark.
According to our database, favorites have gone 29-18 straight up but the underdogs have prevailed to a 25-21-1 record against the spread. The extra result includes the Hall of Fame Game. Total bettors have seen a few more ‘over’ winners recently but the ‘under’ holds a 28-18-1 advantage thus far.
San Diego at San Francisco
2014 Preseason Records:
Chargers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
49ers (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
Preseason Notes: The Chargers pasted the Cowboys 27-7 as 3½-point home favorites in Week 1 of the preseason but were blasted 41-14 by the Seahawks in Week 2 as six-point road underdogs.
The 49ers have been humbled twice in the preseason, losing 23-3 at Baltimore in Week 1 before getting trounced last Sunday at home to Denver, 34-0.
Betting Odds: San Francisco opened as a six-point home favorite and the number has held steady all week. The total is hovering between 41½ and 42 points.
Preseason Tips:
Tony Stoffo - San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason games the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason game the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.
Bruce Marshall – Head coach Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 both SU and ATS vs. line in games 3 & 4 past two years. Some urgency to get offense moving and lots more of Kaepernick this week. Although issues remain on right side of OL, they face a Chargers rush defense that has been absolutely woeful thus far (5.6 ypc). And Bolts running dangerously short of healthy D-linemen. Even though both were played in Week 4 of the preseason, the 49ers have beaten Bolts combined 71-9 in preseason games past two years.
Cincinnati at Arizona
2014 Preseason Records:
Bengals (0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
Cardinals (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Preseason Notes: The Bengals have come up short in both of their preseason games this August, losing at the Chiefs 41-39 in Week 1 on the road and 25-17 to the N.Y. Jets at home last Saturday.
The Cardinals are coming off a 30-28 setback to the Vikings last Saturday as 4½-point road underdogs. In Week 1, the defense played much better at home as Arizona posted a 32-0 shutout over Houston.
Betting Odds: Arizona opened as a two-point favorite and it’s now laying 2½-points at most betting shops. The total is listed at 43.
Preseason Tips:
James Manos - This game has all the feeling of a low-scoring defensive battle. Both of these teams sport quality defenses and face offenses that will encounter matchup problems. Cincinnati has been getting good QB play from Andy Dalton but they've had some issues at the WR position and will be facing perhaps the 2nd most talented secondary in the NFL. Arizona has been getting mediocre QB play and Carson Palmer is a living statue in the pocket, he'll be facing a good Bengals pass rush. Starters are projected to play into the 3rd quarter for both clubs and when the backups come in neither backup QB scares me.
The Gold Sheet – Head coach Bruce Arians of Arizona seems to like the preseason, with his teams now 5-1 vs. the spread in exhibition play in his first two years. I expect that Arizona QB Carson Palmer wants to perform well against his longtime previous team, Cincinnati.