NFL Preseason Primer: Sunday Game Betting Breakdown
By Bryan Power
Covers.com
Here's a quick look at what to expect in Sunday's two NFL preseason tilts.
New Orleans at Houston (-2.5, 43.5)
Both teams here a 2-0 SU/ATS. The Saints have played both of their games so far at home and only managed to squeak by both the Chiefs and Raiders, two teams that combined for only six wins last season. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Drew Brees and the first team offense looked great last week, racing out to a 23-0 lead vs. Oakland. Brees completed 14 of 18 passes for over 200 yards and wound up leading five different scoring drives. He had some praise for the play of his wide receivers. Only some sloppy second half play from the Saints resulted in the game being close. The defense had seven sacks.
We still have not seen Arian Foster yet this preseason for the Texans. He was taken off the PUP list Wednesday and practiced with the team for the first time. However, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the team’s 1st round draft choice back in April, left last week’s game with a concussion. He will not play here. He had looked good so far in camp as the team desperately tries to develop a No. 2 WR next to Andre Johnson. On defense Brian Cushing returned last week and played 10 snaps. These teams have met in the preseason each of the last two seasons with the home team winning and covering each time. Last year’s game in New Orleans was also the “Dress Rehearsal” game.
Minnesota at San Francisco (-3, 39)
Neither of these playoff teams from last year has looked very good so far, especially the 0-2 Vikings, who lost last week in Buffalo 20-16. The game wasn’t even really that close as Minnesota scored 13 points in the fourth quarter. In the first half, the offense gained only 74 yards total offense and four first downs. Quarterback play remains a concern with Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel not exactly setting the world on fire. Ponder played five series last week and completed only 5 of 12 passes for 53 yards.
San Francisco has also struggled offensively, only scoring 21 total points in two games. After four turnovers cost them in the opener against Denver, they did bounce back to defeat Kansas City 15-13 last week on the road. QB Colin Kaepernick has seen very little time thus far. The defense has been impressive however. Last week alone, they registered seven sacks, eight hurries and nine tackles for loss. Newly-signed kicker Phil Dawson has been impressive so far, connecting on five of six attempts, including a pair of 55-yarders against Kansas City.
Sunday Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Saturday night recap: Favorites put together a 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 against the spread mark in the "dress rehersal" games last night. The Bucs, Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos all grabbed their first preseason victory, as Tampa Bay and Kansas City rallied late to cash in the road underdog role. The 'under' went 5-4-1 last night, as the lone 'push' came in the Falcons/Titans game which closed at 43 (27-16, Tennessee).
In Week 3, favorites are profiting with a 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS mark, while the 'over' sits at 7-6-1 heading into Sunday's action.
Saints at Texans
New Orleans: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Houston: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
The Saints have taken care of their business at home in the preseason with a pair of victories over AFC West foes, Kansas City and Oakland. New Orleans' offense outgained Kansas City by 212 yards and Oakland by 184 yards, while jumping out to a 23-0 advantage over the Raiders last Friday night. The Saints held on for a 28-20 victory to cash as six-point favorites, as New Orleans and Oakland eclipsed the total of 46.
The Texans play their second consecutive home contest after downing the Dolphins last Saturday, 24-17 as 3½-point favorites. All three Houston quarterbacks (Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and T.J. Yates) threw a touchdown pass, while the Texans combined for 303 yards through the air. The strong first half showing against Miami was a nice contrast after outscoring Minnesota, 17-0 in the second half in the preseason opener.
New Orleans has won and covered each of their last six "dress rehearsal" games dating back to 2008, including a 34-27 triumph over Houston as a 2½-point favorite last season. The Saints have owned the Texans in the preseason recently, grabbing three of the past four meetings.
Houston has dominated in the preseason since 2011 by posting an 8-2 SU/ATS record, even though one of those losses came to New Orleans in Week 3 last season. The Texans have struggled in the "dress rehearsal" game the last five preseasons by winning just twice in five attempts, while Houston seeks only its second 3-0 start in the exhibition season in franchise history.
Expected Quarterback Rotations:
New Orleans: D. Brees, L. McCown, R. Griffin
Houston: M. Schaub, C. Keenum, T.J. Yates
Handicapper Analysis: Stephen Nover - The Saints defense surrendered the most yards in NFL history last year. They are in a transition phase under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. This will be their toughest foe by far, having so far played just the Chiefs and Raiders. Schaub is a big step above Alex Smith and Matt Flynn. He is adept at burning blitzing foes, which the Saints are going to be doing under the aggressive Ryan.
Vikings at 49ers
Minnesota: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
San Francisco: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Both these playoff teams from last season have struggled to put up points through two exhibition contests. The 49ers have scored just 21 points so far in the preseason, but found a way to squeeze past the Chiefs last Friday, 15-13. San Francisco cashed outright as 2½-point road underdogs, as the 49ers pulled out the victory with a late touchdown pass by former University of South Florida standout B.J. Daniels. The Chiefs' lone touchdown came on a kickoff return, while the Niners received a pair of 50+ yard field goals from Phil Dawson.
The Vikings are looking to sharpen up their game tonight after dropping a 20-16 decision at Buffalo as 3½-point road underdogs. The contest wasn't as close as the final score indicates, as Minnesota fell behind, 20-3 before the Vikings found the end zone twice in the final quarter. Minnesota has been outgained by at least 130 yards in each loss, but are expected to have MVP Adrian Peterson on the field tonight after missing the first two games.
The Niners are 1-1 SU/ATS under Jim Harbaugh in the "dress rehersal" games, as San Francisco won at Denver last season, 29-24 as a short underdog. San Francisco owns a 3-1 SU/ATS record in Harbaugh's tenure as a home favorite in the preseason, with the lone defeat coming to Denver in this season's exhibition opener.
Minnesota is just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six Week 3 preseason contests since 2007. Only one of those victories came on the road, a 17-10 triumph as three-point underdogs at Houston in 2009.
Expected Quarterback Rotation:
Minnesota: C. Ponder, M. Cassel, M. Bethel-Thompson
San Francisco: C. Kaepernick, C. McCoy, S. Wallace
Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - The Vikings are 13-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in preseason games with a winless record when playing off a loss of 3 or more points, including 12-0-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of less then seven points. The 49ers 0-5 SU/ATS in games off a SU underdog win when facing a winless team in the preseason.