NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, August 27th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Sunday's NFL Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Odds: San Francisco (+4) vs. Minnesota (-4); Total 42
Both San Francisco and Minnesota are coming off defeats a week ago during Week 2 of the preseason, and with this game being the last time many of the starters for both sides see the field before the games count, getting in positive work will be a must. Minnesota is looking to rebound after a tough year in 2016 hurt them from the get-go, while San Francisco has a new regime in the management suites and would love to see some giant steps forward taken this year en route to having a winning 49ers franchise again.
It's not going to be an easy road for either club given some of the powerhouses they've got to deal with in their respective divisions (Green Bay, Seattle), but this week's dress rehearsal game could end up going a long way into showing bettors what to expect from Minnesota and San Francisco this season.
Oddly enough, this game has one of the bigger point spreads for “dress rehearsal” week and it suggests that the 49ers may be an organization still stuck as cellar dwellers in the NFL this year. Only the Jets – long believed to be tanking 2017 away – and a Andrew Luck-less Colts team are catching more points then the 49ers this week with starters across the league getting the bulk of playing time. What that says about a 49ers team with a young regime trying to turn the page in 2017 remains to be seen, but chances are I won't be discussing too many best bet articles with the 49ers as a heavily-backed public side.
A QB rotation of Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, and C.J. Beathard won't inspire much faith from anyone, but given how their season could end up going, all three of these guys could see the field in the regular season, meaning that tonight's game is rather big for all three involved.
Minnesota doesn't exactly have their own deep pool of QB's with Teddy Bridgewater still hurt, but they are excited to show off new toy in RB Dalvin Cook. Minnesota is a team that's built to win with their defense, and having a young guy like Cook who can hopefully carry the load from them like Adrian Peterson did in his younger days, should help Minnesota become a playoff team once again.
But that doesn't necessarily mean laying the four points here is the best option, as Minnesota – a team decimated by preseason injuries a year ago – does not want the same thing to happen to them in 2017. That means as much as bettors want to believe Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal spot, I doubt the Vikings will follow that idea to it's core and could make it another early night for plenty of their starters.
That's why, I believe the value lies with the San Francisco 49ers in this spot as they've got multiple QB's vying for a position, among other position battles they've got going on, and with basically all the support going Minnesota's way here, I've got no problem being in the minority.
VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show about 90% of the bets coming Minnesota's way here, yet the line really hasn't moved. All week this game has been lined at either -4 with juice or -4.5 for Minnesota, and you'd think that with the amount of tickets being written that way, that we would have seen a -5 at some point. But that has yet to be the case as of this writing, and thus, I've got no problem grabbing the points with San Francisco.
See, many bettors prefer to treat Week 3 of the preseason as an actual regular season game. After watching two weeks of suspect, and very bad football, patience starts to wear thin for bettors wanting to feast on the real thing. Everyone knows Week 3 is dress rehearsal time, and for whatever reason, those two words equate to “regular season game” for many bettors.
Look up and down the board this week and you'll see all the prohibitive preseason favorites for Super Bowl 52 getting plenty of love. Teams like New England (80%+), Seattle (80%+), and Pittsburgh (80%+), are getting so much support this week it makes my head hurt.
Minnesota may not be in the same class as some of those teams, but they are being treated like they are here because of it being the San Francisco 49ers on the other side of the field. While I do believe Minnesota will be the team to finish with the better regular season record of the two, none of that applies to this SNF game, and with the Vikings having to deal with the injuries they did at the end of last year's preseason, they can ill-afford to do the same thing this year. Therefore, we aren't going to see much from them or their starters on the whole this week outside of the first quarter, and I'm grabbing the points with the road dog because of it.
Best Bet: San Francisco +4
Sunday's NFL Week 3 Preseason Betting Primer
Covers.com
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43)
About the Bears
The spotlight is growing on the battle between expensive free agent Mike Glennon and first round pick Mitch Trubisky. As both took reps with the first-unit offense during practice this week. It is expected that Glennon will play the first half and Trubisky will take over at halftime.
Danny Trevathan is making the trip to Tennessee but coaches haven’t let word leak if he is going to dress. The inside linebacker hasn’t played since rupturing his patellar tendon last November.
The Bears are 1-1 straight up and against the spread, so far this preseason and the Over has cashed in both games.
About the Titans
The Titans have no question marks at quarterback with Marcus Mariota firmly entrenched and looking productive. In two drives versus the Panthers last weekend, he lead the offense to 10 points. Mariota is expected to play the entire first half at least.
Titans wide receivers Eric Decker, Corey Davis, Harry Douglas will not play, however, Tajae Sharpe will make his debut. Sharpe, started 10 games as a rookie last season, has been recovering from June surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot.
DeMarco Murray has been nursing a hamstring injury and while he has been practicing Titans head coach Mike Mularkey was noncommittal Friday about last season’s AFC rushing leader playing against the Bears.
Line Moves
The Titans opened as 3-point chalk and have been bet up a full point to 4. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and has dropped down an even 43.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3, 44.5)
About the Bengals
After a disappointing Week Two for Marvin Lewis and company the Bengals look to rebound in the nation's capital against Washington. Injuries have hindered the Bengals ability to field full units with George Iloka, Dre Kirkpatrick, Giovani Bernard and first round pick John Ross yet to take to the field in a preseason game.
Lewis has stressed he wants to see players get a run before the regular season starts, “I want them to get their wind,” Lewis said.
Cincinnati is expected to play its starting unit for at least the full first half against Washington.
About the Redskins
Head coach Jay Gruden told reporters on Friday he expects players to play ‘a half at least’ on Sunday and has no plans to play starters in Thursday’s fourth and final preseason game at Tampa Bay.
Washington’s offense has struggled scoring with just three total points in their first two preseason games against the opponents’ first-team defense and that field goal came after a fumbled punt and the offense went three and out.
Jordan Reed is expected to make his first start of the preseason after battling a strained toe.
Line Moves
No movement on the line or the total in this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43)
About the 49ers
San Francisco’s starters are expected to play the entire first half, lead by Bryan Hoyer. Rookie C.J. Beathard has been making great strides during camp and appears to have taken over the backup spot from Matt Barkley. Beathard has looked good through two preseason games (211 passing yards, three touchdowns and no picks), but Shanahan would have to be supremely confident that the 3rd round pick is ready to be a backup before the 49ers let go of the veteran Barkley. Expect them both to get reps in the second half.
The 49ers are 1-1 straight up and against the spread, so far this preseason and the Over has easily cashed in the both games.
About the Vikings
The Vikings play their first home game of the preseason Sunday and their offense could use some home cooking. Minnesota’s first team offense led by Sam Bradford sputtered against Buffalo before moving the chains and finding chunk plays both on the ground and through the air in Seattle. However, they’ve only been able to put up three points, a 29-yard field goal in two games.
Highly touted Dalvin Cook will start his third straight preseason game for the Vikings and Sunday will be the first game action for free-agent from Oakland Latavius Murray.
Minnesota won both of their 2016 home preseason games.
Line Moves
The Vikings opened as 3-point home chalk and that wasn’t large enough and the line has been raise to 4. The total hit the betting board at 43.5 and has been bet down to an even 43.