Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
December 7, 2017
By BetOnline.ag
Just wanted to give a shout out to all of our readers and fans, and apologize for the lack of content this week. Some unexpected surgery laid up yours truly early in the week and I’m just getting back on the wagon.
BetOnline.ag will be back with our regularly scheduled programming next week. In the meantime, I’ve got just enough energy to squeeze out some picks for NFL Week 14 betting so I don’t leave you lot hanging for the weekend.
Odds per BetOnline.ag
Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings
If I’m speaking frankly, this is a hunch more than anything. The trends and momentum all favor the Vikings, who will hit the road to play in hostile territory for the third straight game. They’ve proven themselves after outlasting Atlanta last week and Detroit the week prior.
But eventually the bottom has to fall out with the Vikings. It’s sort of a trend that we see in college football where the top teams keep getting randomly dethroned. However, losing to the Panthers would be anything but random. They’re still a good football team.
Minnesota has an unbelievably hot 4-0 SU and ATS road record heading in to this game, but it’s just too good to be true at this point. Mike Zimmer has done an incredible job with this squad that’s undeniably worth Coach of the Year consideration. He’s playing with his backup backfield after all. Still, there’s a feeling that the bubble on this team is about to pop.
Carolina already experienced that awful, bursting sensation when they were throttled by the Saints in Week 13. That’s their tendency this year. The Panthers can pick up huge, rolling victories and follow them up with brutal losses that seem to come out of nowhere. Fortunately, they seem to have thick skin.
If this game has letdown potential for any team, it’s the Vikings. They’re riding just a bit too high right now and it’s been a long time since they’ve faced a truly great team operating at full capacity. Obviously you can tell from the tone of this section that both team represent good wagers. I just don’t want to be on the wrong side of the levy when the bow breaks for the Vikings.
Los Angeles Chargers -6.0 over Washington Redskins
This is a friendly reminder not to be intimidated by this betting line. The Chargers deserve to be favorites for a lot of reasons, most notably that they’re playing playoff worthy football. As for the Washington Redskins, it’s a real dumpster fire these days. This team has just fought uphill against bad management, bad luck and bad injuries.
Sure, they’ve had plenty of time to recalibrate after taking a beating from Dallas last week but I don’t know if they have the pieces to lay down a solid foundation again. The Chargers have been a piss poor 2-4 ATS at home this year, but are riding a breezy 3-1 SU and ATS run that’s worth cashing in on here.
Oakland Raiders +4.0 over Kansas City Chiefs
Could things get any worse for the Chiefs? You bet they can! Kansas City losing a shootout to Josh McCown is a sign of just how predictable and broken the Chiefs have become. As for the Raiders, they absolutely feel like a late blooming onion with their running game thundering downhill thanks to the inevitable explosion of a now-game-ready Marshawn Lynch.
There are zero elements that are truly trustworthy on either side. Oakland is brutal on the road at 0-3-1 ATS while the Chiefs are horrible overall. All that means is that the line here is far too generous, making the Raiders a surprisingly, phenomenal value play either with the points or on the moneyline.
New York Jets -1.0 over Denver Broncos
Nearly four weeks ago, we all panicked that the Jets were no longer a fun betting team. At least I did. Losing to Tampa is usually a bad sign in 2017. However, the Jets have shown some spice with a 35-27 loss to Carolina and a 38-31 steamrolling of Kansas City. This team is putting up some serious points, but they’ve also faced some harsh lines.
This spread seems absolutely perfect. The Jets in a pick ‘em is a fun play against a Denver team that is 0-8 SU and ATS since their bye week with zero relief in sight. While New York remains one of the delightful surprises of the 2017 NFL betting season, Denver remains the most glaring and unexpected disappointment. I don’t get it either, but I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth while I’m trying to sort out the mess.
Philadelphia Eagles +2.0 over Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles were brought back to earth in a violent manner by the Seattle Seahawks, and now they have to travel out west again to take on the Rams. This is going to be fun. How often do we get the top-two picks from the same year battling it out in games that actually matter?
This is the game where we find out what Philadelphia is made of. People have made a big deal out of their play-doh schedule, and it turns out that we were right to keep bringing it up. The Eagles have to prove to the world that they’re tougher mentally than most teams that just took a beating and I’m willing to pay to find out.
The Rams themselves proved to be worthy of conference consideration when they beat New Orleans in a war of attrition 26-20 two weeks ago, and carried through that momentum by beating up on the Cardinals. If there’s one glaring weakness with the Rams, it’s their rushing defence and the Eagles are soaring in to town with three known weapons in Ajayi, Blount and Clement that can do damage.
Goff and Wentz have both proven to be animals in the pocket, and each have some good weapons. Gurley is by far the deadliest, and a huge reason why the Rams are an unreal 4-2 ATS at home this year, but Wentz has a wider variety. That leaves the Eagles better focused to attack this game with a more decisive game plan.
As usual, if the Rams are playing a team that is relatively equal then I’m going with the team that has the better quarterback. Right now, that means backing Wentz in a bounce back game for the Eagles.
Best Bets - Week 14 Totals
December 7, 2017
By Intertops
NFL Week 14 Best Bets – Totals
We've reached the final month of the NFL regular season and it should be an exciting stretch drive. Chances are we see quite a few meaningful games throughout the league in Week 17, but for now it's about starting off on the right note in December.
This is the time of year when we get plenty of division rematches each week and those “must win” scenarios as well.
This week's totals Best Bets touch on a little bit of both so let's get right to the plays.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #1: Oakland/Kansas City Under 48.5
This is one of four division rematch games in Week 14 as the first meeting between Oakland and Kansas City was a TNF thriller. Oakland ended up winning that game 31-30 thanks to four untimed downs at the end of the game due to penalties. It was a wild loss for the Chiefs to experience and not much has gone right for KC since then.
The Chiefs are 1-4 SU and ATS since that loss, and now find themselves tied with Oakland and L.A for tops in the AFC West. It's been quite a crash, but if there ever is a way to get back on track, a home win against a division rival is usually a good place to start.
For Kansas City to win this game, they'll need to rely on a defense that has been much better at home than on the road this year. Last week in New York this Chiefs unit gave up 38 points to the Jets, but in five home games this season they've yet to allow more then 20 points against. That 18.8 allowed per home game average matches up quite well with an Oakland attack that scores 17.4 per road game this year. Add in the fact that this game is basically for 1st place in the division, eight of the last nine meetings in KC have stayed under, and Oakland on a 1-6 O/U run in division games, this might be a race to 20.
Finally we can't forget about the division rematch flip flop angle in play here after the first meeting finished with 61 points, especially when VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show more than 90% of the early action has bettors expecting another shootout between these two clubs. I am definitely not of that mindset as both offenses appear to be shells of their early-season selves, and both defenses will be looking for redemption after that first meeting. This number could even continue to rise as Sunday nears, but if it does I'll just be adding another unit or two on an 'under' I already like at the current number.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #2: Green Bay/Cleveland Over 40.5
Green Bay is one of those clubs in a proverbial “must win” spot as they try to remain within reach of a playoff spot as QB Aaron Rodgers potential return looms. The Packers chances of getting that W against a team that's a combined 1-27 SU the past two years is probably pretty good in the eyes of many, but Green Bay is still fighting for their lives right now with a backup QB that they don't seem to fully trust.
Cleveland just wants to win and avoid the possibility of a winless season. That mindset has been evident in Cleveland's strategy the past few weeks as they are continuously aggressive when the opportunity presents itself, they just haven't been able to get over that final hump. But with a home game against Baltimore and road contests against Chicago and Pittsburgh left, this home game against a banged up Packers team might be the last legitimate shot Cleveland has at winning a game. That tells me that the Browns will continue to be of an aggressive mindset and one way or another, hopefully that turns into points.
Green Bay's offense has started to figure a few things out with Hundley under center as they've put up 23+ in three of their last four games overall. Hundley was brilliant on SNF against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and on the road against a much weaker AFC North foe, I wouldn't be shocked to see Hundley have another good day at the office. After all, Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 O/U the last four times they've been on the road against an AFC team.
Cleveland, well is Cleveland, and trusting them to do anything good is tough. But WR Josh Gordon's return to the lineup paid immediate dividends in L.A last week, and now Gordon gets his first opportunity to be back at home. Cleveland home games have been death to 'over' bettors as they are 0-10 O/U in the last 10, but eventually a trend like that turns around, and what better spot to do it in a game featuring backups/rookie QB's when the majority of bettors (65%) are going to the low side once again. I mean, it makes perfect sense for a game to break out with 60-70 points scored when it involves a Cleveland team that you can never really trust right?
Bottom line, this is going to sort of feel like a playoff game for both teams with Green Bay playing to stay in contention and Cleveland trying to avoid 0-16. With that being the case, neither OC will be shy about pulling out all the stops in order to get the W, and with two young QB's in there prone to INT's and mistakes, we have the potential for a lot of short field drives in this one. As long as both sides can turn those opportunities into TD's rather than FG's more often than not (which could be a big if), both sides should finish in the 20's here as this number of 40.5 easily gets eclipsed.
Best Bets - Week 14 Sides
December 7, 2017
By Intertops
NFL Week 14 Best Bets – Sides
When you look across the entire NFL betting board for Week 14 games, the feeling of this week potentially being one of those “tricky” ones the league sees often a few times a year tends to take hold. We've got two games still currently without point spreads, and including TNF's game in Atlanta, eight games feature spreads in the +/- 3 range.
That's a big number of games fitting that range and when that's the case it may be better to lean towards an “against the grain” approach because toss-up games like this could end up going either way.
So with that being said, this week's Best Bets in the NFL take those words to heart as there are two home teams that are laying points in that -3 or lower range that nobody really seems to want this week. And that's just fine by me.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #1: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
The Jaguars sit at 8-4 SU and in a share of 1st place in the AFC South entering the week. But despite winning four of their last five overall and having one of the best defensive units against the passing game in the league, the majority of bettors have shown already that they've got no problem fading the Jaguars this week.
That's because in today's “what have you done for me lately society,” Jacksonville's opponent this week are the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle just ended Philadelphia's nine-game win streak on national television last week and can surely go out on the road and beat Jacksonville right? Well nearly 90% of the ATS money according to VegasInsider.com believes that to be the case as the Seahawks are being bet ATS and SU like this game doesn't have to even be played.
However, this is a brutal sandwich spot for Seattle after that primetime showdown against the Eagles, and before another big time game with a home game against the 1st place Rams on deck. Seattle does catch a bit of a break with this being a 4:25 pm EST start time, but the cross-country flip to Florida doesn't help much, and neither does this matchup really.
Seattle's best strength offensively is Russell Wilson (in general), but specifically through the air attack. Much is made of Wilson being the leading rusher on the team as well, but even with the Jags defensive weakness being against the run, Seattle's got zero threat of a running game outside of Wilson, so putting a spy on him most plays should negate some of Wilson's production in that aspect.
That leaves the passing game where Jacksonville is supremely confident in their backend DB's to make plays, and that's if their top tier pass rush doesn't get their first. No matter which way you slice it, the matchup is simply not one that bodes well for Seattle.
And yes, backing Blake Bortles to not only win but cover a point spread as well has to be concerning to some degree, but Seattle's defense can be had – especially now with all their injuries – and there is no chance Seattle's D brings the same kind of intensity we saw from them against Philly (and probably next week vs. LA Rams) on the plane with them for this non-conference game. It won't be a Jacksonville rout, but if the oddsmakers are going to need a small home favorite to cover, I've got no problem joining them in that regard for this contest.
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Bet #2: L.A Rams -2.5
Speaking of the Rams and Eagles, they meet in L.A this week as it's the first time we get to see the top two picks from 2016 battle one another. The fact that it's not only Wentz vs Goff, but this game has serious playoff implications in the NFC, this is going to probably end up being the most heavily bet game during the 4 pm EST slate and you've already got a decided majority showing their hand.
As of now, about 80% of bettors on this game are backing the Eagles both SU and ATS as the Philadelphia bandwagon continues to roll on with it's most loyal passengers asserting that last week's loss in Seattle was nothing more than a bump in the road. But although last week was a brutal spot for Philadelphia, this week's spot isn't much better.
For one, you've already got a bit of reverse line movement on this game in favor of L.A after they opened up in the -1 to -1.5 range. The line isn't likely to hit -3 as oddsmakers will know even more Philly money will pour in then, but a move like that shouldn't be glossed over by anyone, even those wearing Eagles decal beer goggles.
Secondly, fading a team after they had a long winning streak snapped is always a situational spot I've believed in in NFL betting and the Eagles fit that role as well. Yes, Philadelphia actually played quite well in Seattle a week ago in outgaining the Seahawks through the air and on the ground, but now with that unbeatable bubble being burst, you can also say that the one “lay an egg” game every NFL team seems to have every year is still out there to be had for Philadelphia. Who's to say that won't happen this week against a very good Rams team against a Philly team that's probably excited to get back to the East Coast.
So with the Rams on a money-making tear of 6-1 ATS in their last seven, at home and looking to make a statement against a NFC rival that many have already anointed as the Super Bowl participant in a few months, I expect the best from the Rams this week. They've got an explosive offensive attack that can easily keep pace if this game turns into a shootout. The one concern is the idea of L.A looking ahead to their rematch with Seattle on deck, but with the hype and magnitude this game already has, most of those concerns should subside rather quickly.
Public underdogs are not ones that have a great success rate in NFL betting, and I'm betting the Eagles in that role this week end up causing quite a few bankrolls to take a hit Sunday evening with a loss in L.A.
Trends to Watch - December
December 1, 2017
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
HOME TEAMS
Good: Though Seattle has slipped a little bit at home this season when it gets to December, this is when they rev it up and they are 37-18 ATS, In weeks, 13, 15 and 17, they will be home and will take on Philadelphia, the L.A. Rams and Arizona.
Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina is a rock solid 28-18 ATS in their building this month and has a three-game homestand which commences Dec.10th, where they will face Minnesota, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay, which sounds like at least two winners.
Cincinnati started the month still talking playoffs. To have a chance the Bengals will have to beat Pittsburgh on Monday night (12/4), Chicago six days later and Detroit two weeks later (12/24), all to improve upon 38-23 ATS mark. Green Bay might be 35-19 ATS at the frozen tundra, but without Aaron Rodgers, trying to take down Tampa Bay (12/3) and Minnesota (12/23) won't be easy.
By weeks 16 and 17, New England (32-20 ATS) will already have the division wrapped up and might only be playing for a top seed in the AFC against Buffalo and the N.Y. Jets. Pittsburgh (39-24 ATS) like the Patriots is also very good at home could also be playing for that top seed on Dec. 17th vs. the Pats. Otherwise, the Steelers have Baltimore (12/10) and the Browns (12/31) at Heinz Field.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland's unbelievable woes continue and they are 14-23 ATS this month at home recently. Two shots at improvement, the Packers on the 10th and against Baltimore a week later in the home finale.
The Rams are 21-31 ATS at home, but they know they are a far better team than that this year and can prove it versus Philadelphia (12/10) and San Francisco (12/31).
Miami (25-39 ATS) and the Jets (22-33 ATS) are both dismal home clubs late in the season. Will the Dolphins continue to falter against Denver (12/3), New England (12/11) and Buffalo (12/31)? And will the Jets have any chance against Kansas City (12/3) and the L.A. Chargers (12/31) in New Jersey?
With two division road games, Oakland (23-36 ATS) has to beat the Giants (12/3) and Dallas (12/17) to stay in the race.
AWAY TEAMS
Bad: The Chicago Bears on the road is like coal in your stocking when backing them, since they have a horrific 17-35 ATS record. They will be tooling around the Midwest to Cincinnati (12/10), Detroit (10/16) and Minnesota (12/31) and probably not find much success.
Keep an eye on (Bad): It must be not too bad to be in the Bay Area this month because Oakland and San Francisco are second-rate away from home. The Raiders are 20-35 ATS in road whites and will have AFC West contests in Kansas City (12/17) and Carson, CA (12/31). If that is not hard enough, a Christmas Day affair with Philadelphia is on tap. The 49ers (20-37 ATS) are at Chicago on the 3rd, at Houston the following week and wrap up everything at the Rams (12/31).
Two other NFC squads are notorious away spread losers. Dallas (23-38 ATS) has three such games and probably will miss the playoffs having to travel to Oakland (12/17) and Philly (12/31), but first will face the Giants (12/10). Tampa Bay is slightly better, but not by a great deal at 21-33 ATS and takes a plane to Lambeau Field (12/3) and then on to Charlotte three weeks after that.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is 30-20 ATS as favorites this month and after being a home underdog for the first time since 2012 against Philadelphia, Seattle should be favored against the Rams (12/17) and Arizona (12/31) and quite possibly at Dallas (12/24).
Green Bay is 52-27 ATS the last month of the season, but that was with a better quarterback than Brett Hundley. Only the game in Cleveland (12/10) will they have a chance to improve that mark.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Dallas in an unsightly 22-37 ATS as December favorites and the way their season is going, they might only be favored one more time and that will be in New Jersey against the Giants on Dec. 10th.
Like the Cowboys, Miami (23-45 ATS) looks to have only one shot at being favored and that might be on New Year's Eve against Buffalo.
UNDERDOGS
Good: The Seahawks are a sparking 40-20 ATS as late-season underdogs. They will in the role for the first time in 47 games versus Philadelphia on Dec.3rd and possibly a week later in Jacksonville.
Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina is a high quality 30-17 ATS when catching points this month will be in that role on the first and last Sunday of the month in New Orleans and Atlanta. Another team that fits this bill is New England at 21-12 ATS and they could be in the role at Pittsburgh (12/17).
Keep an eye on (Bad): For a long time, Chicago has been a late-season bust at 24-41 ATS and they are in that spot in three road games vs. the Bengals (12/10), Lions (12/16) and Vikings (12/31).
With the L.A. Rams vastly improved, chances are they can better record as pooch at 22-41 ATS. Those chances will come presumably against Philly (12/10) and at Seattle seven days later.
DIVISION
Good: The Panthers are money in December in division action at 40-20 ATS and play each team once. The NFC South road contests are mentioned in - Underdog - section and they will host Tampa Bay on Christmas Eve.
Keep an eye on (Good): The Patriots and Seahawks are both 31-18 ATS in division action. New England actually has four AFC East encounters (two with Buffalo), while Seattle is home to the Rams and Cardinals in Weeks 15 and 17 respectively.
Jacksonville is a none too shabby 23-16 ATS and takes on Indy (12/3), Houston (12/17) and at Tennessee to close the regular season.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Here's a shocker, Cleveland is 10-19 ATS against division foes late in the year. Look for the negativity to continue versus Baltimore (12/17) and in the Steel City (12/31).
The Rams will have three shots at bettering 20-32 ATS NFC West mark on the odd-numbered Sunday's, facing each team.
The high-flying Eagles are 22-34 ATS against fellow NFC East foes and will try and take it out on the Giants (12/17) and Cowboys (12/31).