NFL Week 14
Lions (6-6) @ Buccaneers (4-8)— Stafford hurt his hand late in loss to Ravens LW; check status. Untested Iowa alum Rudock is his backup. Lions allowed 74 points in losing last two games (turnover ratio of -5); they’re 4-2 on road, losing by 14 in Superdome, 24 in Baltimore. Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight games; they got QB Winston back last week, and are 3-2 at home, losing 19-14 to Patriots, 17-3 to Carolina. Detroit won three of last four series games, winning 27-20/23-20ot in last two visits here, with last visit here in ’11. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 7-10 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 7-6. Last five Detroit games went over total; four of Buccaneers’ five home games stayed under.
Bears (3-9) @ Bengals (5-7)— Last week, Bears were first team in NFL history to run a punt back for a TD, not allow a TD, win turnover battle and still lose the game. Last two weeks combined, Bears have run 85 plays for 287 yards- not good. Short week for Bengals after blowing 17-0 lead in Monday night loss to hated Steelers. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-9-1 vs spread in game the week following loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals covered their last four games; they’re 3-3 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Chicago lost its last five gamesBengals won four of last six series games; teams split four meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 6-6. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Bengal games.
Colts (3-9) @ Bills (6-6)— Bills QB Taylor hurt his knee LW, would be replaced here by rookie Peterman who threw five picks in one dreadful half vs Chargers in his only NFL start. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-0-1 as home favorites. Indy lost six of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with only win 20-14 (+7) in Houston. Colts won seven of last nine series games, but most of that was in Manning era for Colts; Indy lost 30-7/27-14 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Bills are -8 in turnovers their last five games; they were +14 in their first seven. Last four Indy games stayed under the total.
Seahawks (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4)— Seahawks won seven of their last nine games; they won last four road games, after losing first two- Seattle is 1-2 as road underdogs. Jacksonville won five of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Titans/Rams. Jaguars allowed 23+ points in their four losses; they’re 8-0 when they allow 17 or less. Seahawks scored 22+ points in six of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-2 against the Jaguars; home side won last four series games. Teams split four games played here. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-4-1. Under is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight games, 5-1 in Jaguars’ last six.
Raiders (6-6) @ Chiefs (6-6)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Chargers atop AFC West. Chiefs lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start; KC is 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-8 points, losing to Steelers/Bills. Chiefs have only one takeaway (-4) in their last four games. Raiders won three of last four games; they’re 2-3 in true road games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-6-20 points, with wins in Nashville, Miami. Chiefs (-3) lost 31-30 in Oakland in Week 7; Raiders gained 505 yards, threw for 417 as they snapped 5-game series skid. Oakland lost its last four games in Arrowhead, by 17-18-6-8 points. Last three Raider games stayed under total, as did three of last four Chief games. KC is 0-4 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Vikings (10-2) @ Panthers (8-4)— Minnesota is on road for third week in a row; they won their last eight games, covered last seven. Vikings are 4-1 in true road games, with only loss 26-9 in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, Minnesota is 27-51 (52.9%) on 3rd down, their opponents 12-46 (26.1%). Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Saints, Eagles, winning by 6-3-24 points. Panthers are 8-4 despite a -7 turnover ratio; they have only 11 takeaways. Carolina scored 11 TD’s on its last 30 drives; eight of them were 75+ yard drives. Vikings won three of last four series games; they won 22-10 in Charlotte LY. Four of last six Viking games went over the total, as have last three Carolina games.
Packers (6-6) @ Browns (0-12)— Winless Cleveland is 3-9 vs spread, 2-3 at home, losing games on Lake Erie by 3-24-3-3-12 points. Browns are -20 in turnovers because in part because Kizer isn’t an NFL-caliber QB; in their last nine games, Cleveland scored 63 points on 21 red zone drives, which is really poor. Green Bay lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Packers have been outscored in 2nd half in six of last seven games. Green Bay is 3-1 against the Browns, winning by 23-28-18 points, winning 31-3 in its last visit here, in ’09. All five Cleveland home games stayed under the total; four of last five Packer games went over. Last two weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 17 of 29 third down plays.
49ers (2-10) @ Texans (4-8)— 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start LW, despite not scoring a TD; they were first team in NFL history to allow punt return for a TD, not score a TD, lose turnover battle and still win the game. Niners won two of last three games; they’re 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-3-2-23 points, with win in Chicago. Texans lost five of their last six games; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 43-16-10 points. In their last three games, Houston lost field position by 13-13-14 yards; they haven’t led at halftime since Watson got hurt. Home side won all three series games; 49ers lost 24-21 in last visits here, in ’09. Despite their win last week, Niners had no TD’s (five FG’s) in five red zone drives.
Redskins (5-7) @ Chargers (6-6)— Chargers are 6-2 in last eight games, winning last three, by 30-22-9 points- they were +10 in turnovers in those games. Bolts won last three home games after losing first three- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins lost five of last seven games; they are 2-4 on road, beating Rams/Seattle, losing by 9-10-3-24 points. Washington is 7-3 against the Chargers; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points or in OT. Teams split four series games that were played in California. Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games; six of last seven Charger games stayed under. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 against the spread; AFC West home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.
Jets (5-7) @ Broncos (3-9)— Denver is horrible, losing last eight games (0-8 vs spread); their offense was outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense last week. Broncos are 1-4 vs spread as a dog this year- they lost last three home games, by 13-25-3 points. In its last six games, Denver lost field position by 11+ yards five times. Jets lost five of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG in Cleveland. Jets are 3-1 when allowing 20 or less points. 2-6 if they allow more than 20. Denver won four of last five series games; this is Jets’ first visit here since 2011. Four of last six Denver games went over the total, as did three of last four Jet games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread, 6-5 on the road.
Titans (8-4) @ Cardinals (5-7)— Tennessee won six of its last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 4 or less points. Titans are 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-4 if they score less than 20. Arizona was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of its last three games; they’re at home for 3rd week in row. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 at home, 2-2-1 as home underdogs. Arizona leads series 6-4; they won last meeting in OT in Nashville in 2013- this is Titans’ first visit to the desert since ’05. Over is 7-4 in Titans’ last 11 games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three. Tennessee outscored its last two opponents 28-6 in 2nd half; in their last six games, Titans allowed an average of only 66.5 rushing yards/game.
Eagles (10-2) @ Rams (9-3)— Eagles have 4-game lead with four weeks left; Rams lead by game in NFC West, and visit Seattle next week. Philly had 9-game win streak snapped LW; Eagles are 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs. Iggles turned ball over five times in last two games, after turning it over only five times in previous seven games. Last week was first time since Week 1 that Philly ran for less than 100 yards. Rams won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. LA won field position battle in last seven games; they’re only 9-36 on 3rd down in last three games. Eagles won last four series games; last meeting was in ’14. Rams’ last win was in ’04. Four of last five Eagle games stayed under, as did three of Rams’ last four games.
Cowboys (6-6) @ Giants (2-10)— McAdoo is gone, Manning is back at QB for Giants team that is 1-4 at home, with only win 12-9 in OT over the Chiefs. New York is 1-4 as home underdogs this season. In their last three games, Giants are 10-41 on 3rd down. Cowboys had extra prep time after playing on Thursday LW; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 3-2 on road, losing in Denver, Atlanta, both by 20+ points. Cowboys are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 3-1 on road. Dallas (-4) beat the Giants 19-3 at home in season opener; outrushing them 129-35, winning despite scoring only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Cowboys are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost 27-20/10-7 in last two visits here.
Ravens (7-5) @ Steelers (10-2)— Shazier/Smith-Schuster are both out for Steelers, after tough win in Cincy Monday night. Steelers won their last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 5 or less points. Pitt is 4-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites. Ravens won four of last five games, allowing 11.8 ppg; they’re 2-1-1 as road underdogs. Pitt (-3) spanked Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore in Week 4, running ball for 172 yards; Baltimore turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 3.9 ypp. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in losses- they have 11 takeaways in their last three games. Baltimore won four of last five series games; they won two of last three visits here, with an OT win, playoff win. Over is 2-0-1 in last three Steeler games, 7-1 in Ravens’ last eight.
Patriots (10-2) @ Dolphins (5-7)— New England (-16) spanked Miami 35-17 two weeks ago in Foxboro, running ball for 196 yards, outgaining Fish 417-221- it was Patriots’ 5th win in last six series games. NE actually lost three of last four visits to Miami. Patriots won their last eight games, covered their last six; they’re 4-1 as road favorite this year, with only non-cover a 24-17 win at the Jets. Miami snapped a 5-game skid LW; Dolphins are 3-2 at home, losing to Bucs by 10, Raiders by 3- they’re 1-0-1 as home underdogs. Six of last eight Patriot games stayed under; last six Miami games went over. New England ran ball for 196-191 yards last two weeks; they held last three opponents under 5.0 ypa. Pats’ TE Gronkowski is suspended for this game.
Total Talk - Week 14
December 9, 2017
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 13 Recap
The ‘under’ went 8-7-1 last week and practically all of those low side tickets were never in doubt with an average combined score of 32.4 points per game. One ‘over’ ticket that cashed late came in the extra session of Tampa Bay-Green Bay matchup (45) as the Packers scored a game-winning touchdown in their 26-20 overtime victory. The lone push occurred on Monday Night between the Steelers and Bengals. Through 13 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 98-92-2 record.
Trends to Watch
As we enter the final quarter of the season, here are some notable total tendencies to watch in the last four weeks of the regular season.
The Lions own the best ‘over’ record (9-3) in the league and they’ve executed the right formula for the high side – a solid offense (26.2 PPG) and poor defense (25.7 PPG). Detroit brings a five-game run to the high side into this week’s matchup at Tampa Bay.
Sticking with the Buccaneers, they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home. The offense can’t score (17.2 PPG) at Raymond James Stadium this season, yet the defense (15.2 PPG) has been very stout.
The Steelers (8-3-1) remain the best ‘under’ wager and that includes a 6-0-1 mark on the road, largely because their offense (20.9 PPG) hasn’t traveled well.
Another offense (20.3 PPG) that has struggled on the road is Seattle, but it has managed to step up defensively (16 PPG). Outside of one bad quarter against Tennessee in Week 3, this unit has been lights out on the road and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1. The Seahawks head to Jacksonville this week.
Despite being winless, Cleveland (0-12) has been a tough out at home and its defense (20 PPG) has kept them in games. That effort has helped the ‘under’ go 5-1 and the one ‘over’ result occurred against Minnesota in a game played from London. Green Bay visits FirstEnergy Stadium from Ohio on Sunday.
The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in away games for the Redskins, who has surrendered 28.2 PPG as visitors. The offense (22.2 PPG) has managed to do enough to help the totals lean high.
We have six non-conference games slated in Week 14 and the ‘over’ has gone 28-21-1 (57%) this season in AFC-NFC matchups.
Line Moves
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 14 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Chicago at Cincinnati: 37 to 38 ½
Minnesota at Carolina: 42 to 40
San Francisco at Houston: 42 ½ to 44 ½
N.Y. Jets at Denver: 40 ½ to 42
Philadelphia at L.A. Rams: 51 to 48
Looking at the above moves, you can see the correlation between matchups with playoffs teams opposed to ones without them. Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu wasn’t surprised by the tendencies for these games. “The usual consensus in games like this where you have two quality opponents is that you’re going to see a tighter gameplan and the defenses are slightly ahead of the offenses. Meanwhile, I think the bar is raised a bit in meaningless games. Offenses have nothing to lose, and you have players and coaches playing for their jobs,” explained Cooley.
Divisional Games
I’ve seen some great seasonal trends before but the ‘under’ results in this year’s divisional games continue to show up. The low side went 4-1-1 last week, plus this past Thursday’s result between Falcons and Saints also went ‘under’ the number. When you add up all those results, the ‘under’ sits at 37-19-1 (66%) in divisional matchups this season. We have four matchups remaining in Week 14 and two of them take place in the night games.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight in this series which includes a 19-3 win by Dallas at home in Week 1 and the low side (46) was never in doubt. The Giants will have Eli Manning back at quarterback and I don’t believe he’ll make much of a difference but it’s impossible to handicap emotions. New York is on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and Dallas had the same total streak going before it lit up the Redskins 38-14 last Thursday at home.
Oakland at Kansas City: The Raiders nipped the Chiefs 31-30 at home on Oct. 19 and the ‘over’ (46 ½) cashed easily. That result snapped a 3-0 ‘under’ run in this series. This week’s number is hovering between 48 and 49 points. This is a tough game to handicap because the Chiefs are a mess right now and three of the last four wins by the Raiders came against three of the weakest teams in the league (Dolphins, Broncos, Giants). Despite the turmoil with Kansas City, the Chiefs defense (18.8 PPG) is still tough to solve at home and Oakland has scored 13, 17 and 13 points to Arrowhead with QB Derek Carr.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: (See Below)
New England at Miami: (See Below)
Road Total System
What’s the system?
Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game
This angle is in play for Week 14 as Minnesota will visit Carolina. The Vikings played at Detroit on Thanksgiving and they visited Atlanta last Sunday.
For those following the TT piece this season, you’re aware that we brought up the system in last week’s installment as Tampa Bay was forced to play three straight road game due to its Week 1 game being postponed. As mentioned above, Green Bay won in overtime and that game-winning TD helped the ‘over’ connect.
If you include last week’s result, the ‘over’ stands at 3-2 this season and is now 44-22 (67%) over the last 12 seasons.
For this week’s particular matchup between Minnesota and Carolina, it has the makings of a slugfest and the early money is leaning to the low side. However, it’s hard to dismiss a profitable betting angle.
Under the Lights
After a crazy ‘over’ run, we’re starting to see more ‘under’ results connect in these night games and you know the bookmakers are happy with that. The totals went 1-1-1 last week and on the season, but the ‘over’ still holds an overall edge (24-16-1,60%) and that includes this past Thursday’s result between the Saints and Falcons.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and that includes Pittsburgh’s 26-9 road win over Baltimore in Week 4 with a total of 41 ½. The total (43 ½) has been pushed up for the rematch and the adjustment is fair. Since the early loss to the Steelers, the Ravens have scored 20-plus points in seven of their last eight games and Pittsburgh’s defense is short-handed and appears to be wearing down. Plus, the Steelers have had a knack of scoring points (35.5 PPG) at home in primetime games.
New England at Miami: These teams met two weeks ago in Foxboro and New England stopped Miami 35-17 as the popular Favorite-Over (-16.5, 49) combination connected and that’s been the theme in this matchup. The Patriots-Over ticket has now cashed in three straight and four of the last six meetings in this series. Not having TE Rob Gronkowski (suspension) won’t be easy, but New England has gone 20-5 without him. Miami enters this game on a 7-0 run to the ‘over’ which has been attributed to a poor defensive effort (30.6 PPG). Sticking with defense, Bill Belichick’s squad have done a complete 180 this season. The unit is allowing 11.9 PPG in their last eight games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 6-2. Considering they gave up 32 PPG in their first four games, it’s really eye-opening.
Fearless Predictions
My best total wagers split last week and unfortunately the Chargers and Browns came up short in our teaser wager, which ended our winning streak. The deficit was light ($10) and getting into the black before the playoffs doesn’t seem impossible ($430). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Odds per - Intertops.eu
Best Over: Washington-Los Angeles 46 ½
Best Under: Oakland-Kansas City 48 ½
Best Team Total: Under 23 Cincinnati
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 37 San Francisco-Houston
Over 38 Washington-Los Angeles
Over 31 ½ Minnesota-Carolina
Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
December 8, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
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The Browns have four more whacks at finally getting a win this season and only two of those chances happen to be at home, this Sunday against the Packers and next week against the Ravens. They covered last week at the Chargers (-13.5) to make them 3-9 against the spread on the season, but have failed to cover their last five at home.
Despite the Browns (0-12) crummy resume that includes a league-worst 14.7 points per game, the wagering on the Cleveland-Green Bay game is surpassing most of the marquee matchups in Week 14 action.
"A couple games stand out this week," said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal on Friday morning. "We have a major sharp-square divide on the Packers-Browns game. Sharp money came early on the Browns taking +3.5 and when we went down to -3, we got a large bet on the Packers. But the bigger action has been with the public all laying the Packers. We have a ticket count ratio of 40 to 3 on the Packers."
CG books have the Packers -3 -120, and so do half the other sports book operations in Las Vegas. The other half of the city has the Packers -3.5 EVEN. This game is William Hill sports books most bet of all 14 Sunday games. This is likely to be quarterback Brett Hundley's last start with Aaron Rodgers possibly returning in Week 15. Green Bay (6-6) has gone 2-5 since Rodgers got hurt.
"The other big game for us is the Eagles at Rams, probably the game of the week," Simbal said. "We opened pick and immediately took repected money there and at -1 and -1.5. We got up to -2.5 and that's when we started getting Philly money pushing us back to -1.5 to the point where we need the Rams now."
William Hill sports books have had 51 percent of their tickets written on the Eagles (10-2) which is a good example of the betting patterns with the two highest scoring teams in the NFL facing each other. The Eagles and Rams (9-3) are both averaging 30.1 PPG. The Rams (9-3) have won and covered their last two and are 8-4 ATS while the Eagles come into this game off their first loss since Week 2, a 24-10 decision last Monday at Seattle. The Eagles are tied with Minnesota for the best record at the betting counter with a 9-3 ATS mark.
The Vikings (10-2) are -3 EVEN at Carolina (8-4) this week and 90 percent of the cash taken at William Hill on this one has been on Minnesota.
The Bengals (5-7) have covered the spread in their last four while the Bears (3-9) have lost five straight (0-4-1 ATS), so guess who is being bet the most here?
"The public loves the Bengals," said Simbal. "We've moved up from -6 to -6.5. We don't have one (straight) bet on the Bears. Zero."
The 49ers (2-10) have won two of their past three games with new starting QB Jimmy Garappolo getting a win at Chicago last week in his first start. They travel to Houston against a Texans (4-8) squad that has lost five of its last six.
"Sharps like the Texans at home against the 49ers. We've taken large bets at -1.5, -2 and -2.5 forcing us to -2.5 -120," said Simbal.
MGM books and Wynn are also using Houston -2.5 -120. The South Point uses exclusively flat numbers and are at -2.5. William Hill, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming are using -3 EVEN.
"They're on the 'dog in the Sunday night game," Simbal said. "We moved from -6 to -5.5 just because of the Steelers injuries and they took that so we went straight to -4.5 and it's been steady there."
Because 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers on the bookmaking ladder, bypassing 5 entirely like Simbal did in this situation is a common strategy. William Hill sports books have this match-up as their most lopsided game with 94 percent of the cash on the Ravens (7-5).
The Steelers (10-2) have wide receiver Antonio Brown listed as 'probable' while safety Mike Micthell is questionable and WR JuJu Smith-Shuster is 'out' with a suspension.
The Ravens have won three straight while the Steelers have won seven straight -- three of the last four by exactly three points. Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings against the Steelers with the lone non-cover happening in a 26-9 Week 4 loss this season.
Two games were still "OFF" the board as of Friday afternoon because of the uncertainty of a couple starting quarterbacks. Matt Stafford (hand) is 'questionable' to start for Detroit (6-6) at Tampa Bay (4-8).
Tyrod Taylor (knee) is listed as 'questionable' for Buffalo's (6-6) home game against the Colts (3-9).