NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, December 17th, 2017

NFL Week 15 games

Eagles (11-2) @ Giants (2-11)— Nick Foles is 20-16 as an NFL starter, 15-9 with Philly; he has the reins to Eagle offense with Wentz out for year. Philly won 10 of last 11 games; they’re 5-2 on road, 3-1 as a road favorite. Giants lost last three games by 10-7-20 points, scoring three TD’s on last 36 drives- they’re 16 for last 57 on 3rd down conversions. Eagles (-6) beat Giants 27-24 at home back in Week 3; Philly ran ball for 193 yards, in game where both teams had 100+ penalty yards. Giants lost despite 14-yard edge in field position. Philly won six of last seven series games; they’re 8-2 in last ten visits here. Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Three of last four Eagle games, and last four Giant games stayed under total.

Packers (7-6) @ Panthers (9-4)— Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play in this game. Green Bay won its last two games with TD’s in OT; Packers are 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-13-3 points on foreign soil. Carolina won five of last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-3 vs spread as home favorites- they ran ball for 200+ yards in three of last five games. Panthers are 11-39 on 3rd down in last three games, after going 11-14 vs Miami in Week 10- they’ve turned ball over only twice in last four games (+4). Teams split last six series games overall, split last eight played here. Average total in last four series games, 60.0. NFC South home favorites are 5-9 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 7-6. Five of last six Green Bay games went over total, as did last four Carolina games.

Bengals (5-8) @ Vikings (10-3)— Cincinnati lost four of last six games; they got crushed at home by the Bears LW, giving up 232 rushing yards. Cincy is 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-15-16-4 points. Minnesota had its 8-game win streak snapped LW; Vikings are 5-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-17-13-8-17 points at home. Teams split their 12 all-time meetings; home team won 11 of those 12 games. Bengals are 0-5 in their visits to the Twin Cities. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-3. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bengal games, 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games. Viking coach Zimmer was DC for Bengals before coming to Minnesota.

Dolphins (6-7) @ Bills (7-6)— Last two times Miami beat the Patriots and then played the next week, they lost both games, 19-0/29-10, both times in Buffalo. Short week for warm-weather Dolphins coming north to visit western NY after upsetting Pats Monday night, which snapped Miami’s 4-game losing streak. Dolphins are 2-4 on road; they were outscored 120-38 in last three road games. Buffalo is 6-1 when it allows 17 or less points, 1-5 when they allow more; Bills are 5-2 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 9-10-3-20-6 points. Miami swept Bills LY, winning both games by FG, after losing five of previous six series games. Dolphins lost four of last five visits to western NY. Home teams are 6-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Last six Miami games went over total; last three Buffalo games stayed under.

Texans (4-9) @ Jaguars (9-4)— Jaguars won six of last seven games, are 5-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorites- they lost to Titans/Rams at home. Jax has 12 takeaways in its last four games (+7); in their last nine games, they outscored opponents 128-61 in second half. Jacksonville (+5.5) had four takeaways (+4), upset Texans 29-7 in season opener; it was only Jags’ third win in last 14 series games. Houston won five of its last six visits here. Texans are 1-6 in their last seven games, losing last three in row, by 7-11-10 points; they lost their last three road games, by 26-7-11 points. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year. Four of last six Houston games stayed under total, as have five of last seven Jaguar games.

Jets (5-8) @ Saints (9-4)— Jets lost six of last eight games, are screwed with QB McCown out for season; new QB Petty is 1-3 as an NFL starter, his backup Hackenberg has yet to play in the NFL. Jets are 1-5 on road, 1-2-1 as road underdogs, with road losses by 9-25-3-5-23 points- their road win was in Cleveland. New Orleans lost two of last three games; they have rematch with rival Falcons next week. Saints won last five home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning games in Superdome by 14-8-20-3-10 points, with loss to Patriots. Saints won five of last seven series games; Jets are 3-2 in five visits to Bourbon Street. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 5-9.

Cardinals (6-7) @ Redskins (5-8)— Washington lost six of last eight games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-1 as home favorites. Redskins were outrushed 356-151 in last two games. Cardinals are 2-3 in true road games, 0-3 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 12-27-10 points, and wins at Indy/SF. Arizona won last two series games, 30-20/31-23; Washington is 4-9 in its last 13 trips to the desert. NFC West road underdogs are 5-8 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 7-8 vs spread 5-5 at home. Over is 6-3 in last nine Redskin games, 3-1 in last four Arizona games.

Ravens (7-6) @ Browns (0-13)— Baltimore lost 39-38 thriller in Pittsburgh LW, snapping their 3-game win streak; Ravens scored 82 points in last two games, scoring 9 TD’s on their last 22 drives. Baltimore is 3-3 in true road games, 1-0 as a road favorite. Winless Cleveland is 3-10 vs spread, 2-5 at home; they lost two of last there home games in OT. In there last six games, Browns were outscored 90-37 in 2nd half. Ravens (-7.5) had five takeaways (+3), beat Cleveland 24-10 at home back in Week 2; Baltimore is 17-2 in last 19 series games, winning last three visits here, by 2-6-5 points. Favorites are 5-4 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Four of Browns’ last six games went over total, as have seven of last nine Raven games.

Rams (9-4) @ Seahawks (8-5)— First place in NFC West is at stake here. LA turned ball over five times (-3) in 16-10 home loss to Seattle in Week 5; teams split last eight series games, but Rams are 1-11 in last 12 visits here. LA figures to get WR Woods (shoulder) back, which helps; in their last four games. Rams are 11-43 on 3rd down, but they’ve also scored TD on defense/special teams the last two weeks. LA is 5-1 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs. Seattle split its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 1-4 vs spread as home favorites. Seahawks haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last three games. Home side is 0-7-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in Rams’ road games, 3-6 in last nine Seattle games.

Patriots (10-3) @ Steelers (11-2)— Since 2013, New England is 12-2 vs spread coming off a loss. Winner here will own home field advantage for top seed in AFC; if game were to go to OT, Pitt could play for tie, since they lead Pats by a game. Patriots scored 34.5 ppg in winning last four series games- they beat Steelers twice LY, 27-16 here, then 36-17 at home in playoffs. Short week for Pats after loss in Miami Monday; NE is 5-1 in true road games, 4-2 as road favorites. Steelers won their last eight games; five of their last six wins are by 5 or less points. Pitt is still without LB Shazier, so their defense is vulnerable. AFC East non-divisional road favorites are 3-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 7-6-1, 1-2 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Patriot games; over is 3-0-1 in last four Steeler games.

Titans (8-5) @ 49ers (3-10)— Tennessee is game behind Jaguars in AFC South; they play J’ville in Week 17. Titans won six of last eight games, are 3-4 on road, 0-2 as a road dog. Tennessee did not score in second half in Arizona LW; they allowed total of only 41 points in last three games. 49ers won three of last four games after an 0-9 start; 49ers are 1-5 at home, they’re favored here for first time this season. Garoppolo is now 4-0 as an NFL starter. Titans/49ers split last six meetings; Tennessee won two of last three visits here. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Five of last six 49er games stayed under total, as did last three Titan games. Tennessee is 7-0 when it scores 20+ points.

Cowboys (7-6) @ Raiders (6-7)— Dallas won its last two games, scoring 38-30 points; they’re 4-2 on road, 4-1 as road favorites- they scored three TD’s in 8:00 span of 4th quarter to break tie game in New Jersey LW. Cowboys were held to 7-9-6 points in last three losses; they scored 8 TD’s on 22 drives in last two games. Dallas converted 20 of last 39 plays on 3rd down. Raiders are 4-3 in last seven games; they won last three home games, are 1-0 as home underdogs. Home side won last four series games; Dallas lost 19-13 in last visit here, in 2005. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-8 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC West underdogs are 6-5, 2-1 at home. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total, as did last four Oakland games.

armadillosports.com

Pick Six - Week 15
December 16, 2017
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 14 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 40-44 SU, 36-45-1 ATS

Packers at Panthers (-3, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay
Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Packers lost star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone two months ago as Green Bay compiled a 3-5 mark in that span. However, Green Bay is trending up of late by knocking off Tampa Bay and Cleveland in overtime in each of the past two weeks. The Packers are currently on a solid 4-1 ATS run, while covering in three of four opportunities as a road underdog. Green Bay owns a 12-2 record in the last 14 games started and finished by Rodgers since last November, while cashing the OVER 11 times in that span.

Carolina
Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Panthers rebounded from a 10-point defeat at New Orleans to defeat Minnesota last Sunday, 31-24 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs. Jonathan Stewart rushed for three touchdowns, while Carolina improved to 5-1 SU/ATS in the ‘dog role this season. However, Carolina has slumped to a 1-3 ATS record as a home favorite this season, including outright losses to New Orleans and Philadelphia. Carolina held off Green Bay in its previous meeting in 2015 by a 37-29 score to cash as two-point home underdogs.

Best Bet: Packers +3

Dolphins at Bills (-3, 39) – 1:00 PM EST

Miami
Record: 6-7 SU, 5-6-2 ATS, 7-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

The Dolphins are fresh off their best performance of the season by shocking the Patriots as double-digit home ‘dogs last Monday, 27-20. Jay Cutler tossed three touchdown passes to lift Miami to its second straight victory following a five-game skid. The Dolphins haven’t faced the Bills yet this season as the two division rivals will hook up twice in the final three weeks. Miami swept Buffalo last season with both wins coming by three points each, including a 34-31 overtime triumph at New Era Field last December.

Buffalo
Record: 7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Bills continue to be the biggest roller coaster ride in the NFL after edging the Colts in a massive snowstorm last Sunday, 13-7 in overtime. LeSean McCoy carried Buffalo to its fifth home victory of the season by scoring the game-winning touchdown in OT, while compiling 156 yards on 32 carries. Since the Bills were torched for 54 points against the Chargers in Week 11, Buffalo has allowed 40 points in the past three games, resulting in three consecutive UNDERS.

Best Bet: Dolphins +3

Cardinals at Redskins (-4, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Cardinals crept closer to the .500 mark in spite of not reaching the end zone in last Sunday’s 12-7 home victory over the Titans. Phil Dawson booted four field goals for Arizona, while the Cardinals picked up their second win in three weeks against the top two teams in the AFC South. However, Arizona has yet to win consecutive games this season, posting an 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS record off a victory. As a road underdog this season, the Cardinals have underachieved by putting together an 0-3 SU/ATS mark.

Washington
Record: 5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Redskins have several signature road wins this season against the Rams and Seahawks, while coming up short in close defeats at Kansas City and New Orleans. However, Washington has gone backwards at the wrong time by losing four of the past five games since upsetting Seattle in Week 9, including recent blowout losses to the Cowboys and Chargers. The Redskins are listed as a home favorite for only the third time this season, winning in both instances against the 49ers and Giants.

Best Bet: Redskins -4

Rams at Seahawks (-2 ½, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Rams are getting their money’s worth over the last month against elite NFC competition by beating the Saints, but also falling to the Vikings and Eagles. Los Angeles still has a hold on the NFC West lead, but the Rams have to avoid the sweep to Seattle after losing at home to the Seahawks in Week 5 by three points. L.A. has yet to lose consecutive games this season, while posting an impressive 5-1 record away from the Coliseum.

Seattle
Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Seahawks return home following a 30-24 setback at Jacksonville last Sunday to end a brief a two-game winning streak. Seattle didn’t lose any ground in the division thanks to Philadelphia beating Los Angeles, but the Seahawks are currently tied with the Falcons for the final playoff spot in the NFC with a trip to Dallas next week. The Seahawks have owned the Rams over the years at CenturyLink Field by capturing 11 of the past 12 home matchups with the lone loss coming in 2015 as 11 ½-point favorites, 23-17.

Best Bet: Rams +2 ½

Patriots (-3, 53 ½) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

Home-field advantage is on the line as the winner of this game will likely be the top seed in the AFC playoffs. New England suffered its first regular season road loss since Week 17 in 2015 as the Patriots were tripped up by the Dolphins last Monday to end a 14-game away hot streak. The Patriots will get Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski back following his one-game suspension, while New England has captured each of the past four meetings with Pittsburgh since 2013.

Pittsburgh
Record: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

Following four straight primetime games (all wins), the Steelers are back in action during the day as Pittsburgh tries to extend its hot streak to nine in a row. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in its past three games, in which the Steelers won by a total of seven points against Green Bay, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. The Steelers are listed as a home underdog for the first time since last October against New England in a 27-16 loss, but Ben Roethlisberger sat out due to injury.

Best Bet: Patriots -3

Titans at 49ers (-1 ½, 45) – 4:25 PM EST

Tennessee
Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 7-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Titans were dealt a huge blow in their AFC South championship hopes in a 12-7 defeat at Arizona last Sunday as three-point favorites. Tennessee remains out west for the second of three straight games against NFC West foes. Amazingly, the Titans are listed as an underdog for just the third time this season, losing at Miami and Pittsburgh when receiving points. Tennessee heads to San Francisco for the first time since beating the 49ers in 2009 as 4 ½-point underdogs, 34-27.

San Francisco
Record: 3-10 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The 49ers look like a different team when they have a decent quarterback under center. Former Patriot Jimmy Garoppolo is 2-0 as a starter, leading San Francisco to road victories over Chicago and Houston in the underdog role. Now, the Niners are flipped to a favorite for the first time this season and are laying points for the first time since last December against the Jets, a game they lost in overtime.

Best Bet: Titans + 1 ½